Piero Stanig
@pstanig.bsky.social
890 followers 1.6K following 29 posts
Political scientist, Bocconi University. Voting, political economy, climate change, robots, AI, and more.
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Finally typeset in @thejop.bsky.social, the paper with @simonecremaschi.bsky.social on the electoral impact of the Vaia storm in the Alps in northeastern Italy. Link to some free pdf views here www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/epdf/10....
New paper with Paolo Agnolin and Italo Colantone: in a way, I wish we didn’t have to write it --it's just another primer on post-treatment bias. But it’s a fun paper...We show how one can break some of Colantone and Stanig's earlier results (i.e., ours!)

journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
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Reposted by Piero Stanig
cpsjournal.bsky.social
New article from our latest issue (Issue 8, 2025): "In Search of the Causes of the Globalization Backlash: Methodological Considerations on Post-treatment Bias" by Paolo Agnolin @paoloagnolin.bsky.social , Italo Colantone, and Piero Stanig @pstanig.bsky.social

journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...
Reposted by Piero Stanig
thmskrr.bsky.social
🚨3-Year Postdoc Position in Zurich @ipz.bsky.social

❓Political implications of labor market transformation

Plenty of flexibility, no teaching obligations, great research environment in an highly livable city.

Deadline: May 18, 2025.

tinyurl.com/postdoczurich

#polisky #poliscijobs #psjminfo
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best thing to do if you are so worried about trade deficits as they seem to be: restrict sales of a valuable export.
more than Nobels, what is interesting is that a lot of high-paying jobs in finance, insurance, etc. then go to allegedly underschooled westerners (and there is some -quietly expressed- discontent for this). Or the depts of physics or economics at NUS employing many (mostly?) western or PRC scholars
Reposted by Piero Stanig
mgerrydoyle.bsky.social
every time I see someone praise the absurdly difficult and advanced math curriculum for kids in singapore I am reminded of this chart
Reposted by Piero Stanig
jonathanhopkin.bsky.social
I’m hearing a lot of people repeating the line that social democrats are not losing votes to the far right, so that invalidates the thesis that social democrats have lost touch with the working class and should address issues like migration. But this is missing the point
Reposted by Piero Stanig
ainagallego.bsky.social
📢 Our new paper in Political Analysis explains how to use LLMs like GPT-4o, Llama or Mistral to estimate the ideological and policy position of political texts. Our approach is fast, reliable, cost-effective and reproducible and works with texts written in different languages 1/7 cup.org/4axBEXo
Positioning Political Texts with Large Language Models by Asking and Averaging | Political Analysis | Cambridge Core
Positioning Political Texts with Large Language Models by Asking and Averaging
cup.org
This. Few things are more maddening than social scientists deliberately underestimating the agents they study. (Yeah they often make choices that might look silly prima facie; that we cannot understand them is an indictment of our discipline(s) more than anything else).
sean-gailmard.bsky.social
I feel that our job is to understand why people do what they do. “Because they are incoherent” is a bad explanation. If anyone offered that depiction of a decision I made, I would simply say they didn’t understand it. It takes a lot of hubris to give less credence to decision makers I study.
Ok so, paying attention to the technicalities, “the Federal President dismissed the cabinet following a negative vote in the legislature.”
Yeah I know the story, but what I am saying is that “government collapse” is not the same thing to American ears. I venture that it sounds more like “Staatszerstörung” to those unfamiliar with parliamentary systems. As Germans would say, a constellation of misunderstandings
Or “the legislature dismissed the cabinet, leading to a new election”
Maybe it’s just me (ESL US trained political scientist) but the expression “the German government collapsed”, which I keep seeing, does not really convey the correct impression, esp to US audiences. “The cabinet was forced to resign following a vote in the legislature” does not sound that ominous
mostly voter reactions to direct exposure to extreme weather events.
Reposted by Piero Stanig
simonecremaschi.bsky.social
🚨 New paper 🚨 with @pstanig.bsky.social forthcoming at @thejop.bsky.social 🎉 about the political consequences of climate-related disasters 🌲💦⚠️

Pre-print 👉 osf.io/preprints/os...
Summary 🧵👇
Just getting the group average would be informative though. Not an experimental q. Ask at the very end if you are concerned with contamination
Some curiosity about the study that a superficial read did not assuage: did they ask respondents which menu *they* would choose? Crucial info to assess whether stereotypes are on target