Rob McClelland
@rob-mcclelland.bsky.social
Senior Fellow Tax Policy Center. Previously chief Price and Index Number Division, BLS; Senior analyst CBO. Opinions my own.
Reposted by Rob McClelland
On Aug 1, tariff rates are scheduled to rise to historic highs. average tariffs on women’s clothing will rise to 48 percent, wine to 20 percent, and toys to nearly 50 percent.
taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/too-m...
taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/too-m...
July 9, 2025 at 12:10 PM
On Aug 1, tariff rates are scheduled to rise to historic highs. average tariffs on women’s clothing will rise to 48 percent, wine to 20 percent, and toys to nearly 50 percent.
taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/too-m...
taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/too-m...
New from my colleague John Wong and myself: in August tariffs on women's clothing will rise to 48%, Men's to 39%. Dolls, toys and games will be tariffed at nearly 50%.
The effect may be delayed, but eventually these rates will very likely hurt the economy
taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/too-m...
The effect may be delayed, but eventually these rates will very likely hurt the economy
taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/too-m...
Too Many Goods Are About To Face Historically High Tariffs
Should historically high tariff rates go into effect on a wide range of goods, consumer prices will rise, employment and incomes in downstream industries will fall, and profits will shrink. The value ...
taxpolicycenter.org
July 8, 2025 at 5:13 PM
New from my colleague John Wong and myself: in August tariffs on women's clothing will rise to 48%, Men's to 39%. Dolls, toys and games will be tariffed at nearly 50%.
The effect may be delayed, but eventually these rates will very likely hurt the economy
taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/too-m...
The effect may be delayed, but eventually these rates will very likely hurt the economy
taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/too-m...
What would the One Big Beautiful Bill Act do to charitable giving? Elena Patel and I try answer that question
www.brookings.edu/articles/one...
www.brookings.edu/articles/one...
One Big, Beautiful Bill complicates charitable giving
Changes to charitable giving deductions will make it the system more complicated without increasing donations.
www.brookings.edu
June 12, 2025 at 2:49 PM
What would the One Big Beautiful Bill Act do to charitable giving? Elena Patel and I try answer that question
www.brookings.edu/articles/one...
www.brookings.edu/articles/one...
The 15th annual TPC-IRS conference on tax administration takes place this Thursday. It's not too late to register.
www.irs.gov/statistics/f...
www.irs.gov/statistics/f...
Fifteenth annual IRS-TPC Joint Research Conference on Tax Administration | Internal Revenue Service
The Internal Revenue Service and the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center plan to co-sponsor their 15th annual tax administration research conference next year. It will be held on June 12, 2025, at the U...
www.irs.gov
June 10, 2025 at 9:27 PM
The 15th annual TPC-IRS conference on tax administration takes place this Thursday. It's not too late to register.
www.irs.gov/statistics/f...
www.irs.gov/statistics/f...
Reposted by Rob McClelland
Congratulations to newly elected Distinguished Fellows Susan M. Collins, Barbara M. Fraumeni, Joseph P. Newhouse, and Timothy Taylor. #econsky aeaweb.org/about-aea/ho...
Distinguished Fellows
aeaweb.org
April 22, 2025 at 12:06 PM
Congratulations to newly elected Distinguished Fellows Susan M. Collins, Barbara M. Fraumeni, Joseph P. Newhouse, and Timothy Taylor. #econsky aeaweb.org/about-aea/ho...
Reposted by Rob McClelland
More on Stantcheva, who btw is an immigrant from Bulgaria.
www.imf.org/en/Publicati....
www.imf.org/en/Publicati....
April 22, 2025 at 12:18 PM
More on Stantcheva, who btw is an immigrant from Bulgaria.
www.imf.org/en/Publicati....
www.imf.org/en/Publicati....
Regardless, I wouldn't count on the uncertainty disappearing on April 2.
Again, how can US businesses possibly plan in this environment? www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
White House Narrows April 2 Tariffs
Tariffs on industrial sectors like cars and microchips are no longer expected to be announced on April 2.
www.wsj.com
March 24, 2025 at 1:45 PM
Regardless, I wouldn't count on the uncertainty disappearing on April 2.
Continued uncertainty as to what will happen on April 2. Once these plans are announced, other nation's retaliatory tariffs will likely follow. And, of course, tariffs announced on April 2 could later change.
www.msn.com/en-us/money/...
www.msn.com/en-us/money/...
MSN
www.msn.com
March 24, 2025 at 1:39 PM
Continued uncertainty as to what will happen on April 2. Once these plans are announced, other nation's retaliatory tariffs will likely follow. And, of course, tariffs announced on April 2 could later change.
www.msn.com/en-us/money/...
www.msn.com/en-us/money/...
Reposted by Rob McClelland
"Liberation" from what? A strong economy and stable business environment? www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
Trump aides prep new tariffs on imports worth trillions for ‘Liberation Day’
The administration has already unnerved investors with duties on Canada, Mexico and China. Advisers are readying a bigger move.
www.washingtonpost.com
March 19, 2025 at 4:52 PM
"Liberation" from what? A strong economy and stable business environment? www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
In the short run, Americans will face some combination of higher costs, higher unemployment, and lower profits/reduced values of retirement accounts.
In the long run, universal tariffs that try to force all economic activity to "retreat to Fortress America" will likely lead to widespread hardship.
In the long run, universal tariffs that try to force all economic activity to "retreat to Fortress America" will likely lead to widespread hardship.
(1/2) As I note, “It’s really hard to see how the Trump voters come out ahead. Prices are going to be higher, disruptions are going to be higher and the safety net is going to get cut.”
Trump Says a Recession Might Be Worth the Cost. Economists Disagree. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/18/b...
Trump Says a Recession Might Be Worth the Cost. Economists Disagree. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/18/b...
Trump Says a Recession Would Be Worth It, but Economists Are Skeptical
President Trump and his advisers say his policies may cause short-term pain but will produce big gains over time. Many economists are skeptical of those arguments.
www.nytimes.com
March 19, 2025 at 1:37 PM
In the short run, Americans will face some combination of higher costs, higher unemployment, and lower profits/reduced values of retirement accounts.
In the long run, universal tariffs that try to force all economic activity to "retreat to Fortress America" will likely lead to widespread hardship.
In the long run, universal tariffs that try to force all economic activity to "retreat to Fortress America" will likely lead to widespread hardship.
Reposted by Rob McClelland
Research with restricted-use data is more precise, powerful, and relevant. Faculty and staff will be working through the weekend to answer important research questions before we no longer can. This is not normal, necessary, or efficient.
AERA has just learned that all restricted-use NCES data licenses will be cancelled, possibly as early as March 20. We urgently request that all AERA members and others in the research community with restricted-use licenses take these two actions: www.aera.net/Research-Pol...
March 14, 2025 at 8:10 PM
Research with restricted-use data is more precise, powerful, and relevant. Faculty and staff will be working through the weekend to answer important research questions before we no longer can. This is not normal, necessary, or efficient.
Reposted by Rob McClelland
"Quite simply and astonishingly, this is dismantling the National Park Service as we know it, ranger by ranger and brick by brick.”
This is myopic, execrable policy, which is why vast majorities of Republicans and Democrats do not want it. Poll data—> www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2025/2/...
This is myopic, execrable policy, which is why vast majorities of Republicans and Democrats do not want it. Poll data—> www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2025/2/...
Parks Group Warns of Dismantling of the National Park Service
"Quite simply and astonishingly, this is dismantling the National Park Service as we know it, ranger by ranger and brick by brick." - Theresa Pierno, NPCA's President and CEO
www.npca.org
March 6, 2025 at 2:36 PM
"Quite simply and astonishingly, this is dismantling the National Park Service as we know it, ranger by ranger and brick by brick.”
This is myopic, execrable policy, which is why vast majorities of Republicans and Democrats do not want it. Poll data—> www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2025/2/...
This is myopic, execrable policy, which is why vast majorities of Republicans and Democrats do not want it. Poll data—> www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2025/2/...
Reposted by Rob McClelland
Mathematica. Urban. Child trends. Abt. Among many others Are getting smashed. As are government analysts who often have phd or masters. The whole field is likely to get smashed. And u say will take decades to rebuild. :(. And ironically its very bipartisan. For decades. Until now.
March 5, 2025 at 9:55 PM
Mathematica. Urban. Child trends. Abt. Among many others Are getting smashed. As are government analysts who often have phd or masters. The whole field is likely to get smashed. And u say will take decades to rebuild. :(. And ironically its very bipartisan. For decades. Until now.
Reposted by Rob McClelland
I wrote a short blog post about the tragedy currently unfolding in the evaluation industry. Trump is destroying vital research capacity and decades of instructional knowledge for pocket change. 1/x
rooseveltinstitute.org/blog/the-irr...
rooseveltinstitute.org/blog/the-irr...
The Irreparable Damage Being Done to Federal Policy Research and Evaluation - Roosevelt Institute
Though their goals obviously differed, Republican and Democratic administrations have for decades relied on the work of social scientists both within and outside the government to conduct research on ...
rooseveltinstitute.org
March 5, 2025 at 9:47 PM
I wrote a short blog post about the tragedy currently unfolding in the evaluation industry. Trump is destroying vital research capacity and decades of instructional knowledge for pocket change. 1/x
rooseveltinstitute.org/blog/the-irr...
rooseveltinstitute.org/blog/the-irr...
You can't grow the economy by retarding economic activity
March 4, 2025 at 5:27 PM
You can't grow the economy by retarding economic activity
Reposted by Rob McClelland
110 of 363 Taxpayer Assistance Centers and 5 of 10 call centers are going to be shut down, per a meeting that just happened at the IRS.
During tax season.
During tax season.
February 27, 2025 at 9:46 PM
110 of 363 Taxpayer Assistance Centers and 5 of 10 call centers are going to be shut down, per a meeting that just happened at the IRS.
During tax season.
During tax season.
Nothing has happened yet, but even unsuccessful attempts to alter government statistics would be deeply troubling.
"American statistics may have flaws of various kinds, but are generally accurate: the Billion Prices Project, tracking the online price of a billion goods in 2015 and 2016, resulted in remarkably similar readings to the official CPI." www.liberalcurrents.com/can-we-trust...
Can We Trust Government Statistics Under Trump?
What statistical forgery in other regimes can tell us about what to expect.
www.liberalcurrents.com
February 25, 2025 at 3:24 PM
Nothing has happened yet, but even unsuccessful attempts to alter government statistics would be deeply troubling.
Reposted by Rob McClelland
Vance is threatening to isolate Russia from the global economy and Trump is promising to isolate the United States from the global economy.
February 14, 2025 at 12:48 PM
Vance is threatening to isolate Russia from the global economy and Trump is promising to isolate the United States from the global economy.
The Tax Policy Center estimates that the change in revenues (2025-2035) from tariffs on imports from Mexico & Canada starting March 1 and on China starting Feb 4 would raise $1.2 trillion, of which $328 billion comes from tariffs on imports from China taxpolicycenter.org/model-estima...
T25-0016 – Impose Additional Tariffs on Imported Goods From China, Canada, and Mexico
taxpolicycenter.org
February 6, 2025 at 2:07 PM
The Tax Policy Center estimates that the change in revenues (2025-2035) from tariffs on imports from Mexico & Canada starting March 1 and on China starting Feb 4 would raise $1.2 trillion, of which $328 billion comes from tariffs on imports from China taxpolicycenter.org/model-estima...
Reposted by Rob McClelland
Tariffs...
The Tax Policy Center estimates that a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada would reduce after-tax incomes by about 1 percent and that imports would fall by 40% by 2026. taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/25-pe...
A 25 Percent Tariff on Canadian and Mexican Imports Would Reduce Consumers’ Average After-Tax Income by 1 Percent
taxpolicycenter.org
January 31, 2025 at 10:20 PM
Tariffs...
Reposted by Rob McClelland
Wow, that was fast.
Irving Energy, company that provides propane/fuel oil customers in New England, says it will pass on the full 10% tariff cost to all their customers immediately
(reposting with fixed figure - meant to say 10%, not 30%)
Irving Energy, company that provides propane/fuel oil customers in New England, says it will pass on the full 10% tariff cost to all their customers immediately
(reposting with fixed figure - meant to say 10%, not 30%)
February 3, 2025 at 1:48 AM
Wow, that was fast.
Irving Energy, company that provides propane/fuel oil customers in New England, says it will pass on the full 10% tariff cost to all their customers immediately
(reposting with fixed figure - meant to say 10%, not 30%)
Irving Energy, company that provides propane/fuel oil customers in New England, says it will pass on the full 10% tariff cost to all their customers immediately
(reposting with fixed figure - meant to say 10%, not 30%)
Reposted by Rob McClelland
A new analysis from the Tax Policy Center estimates that imposing a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico would reduce after-tax incomes by nearly 1% in 2026, costing the average household the equivalent of $930 in lost income.
taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/25-pe...
taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/25-pe...
January 31, 2025 at 9:06 PM
A new analysis from the Tax Policy Center estimates that imposing a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico would reduce after-tax incomes by nearly 1% in 2026, costing the average household the equivalent of $930 in lost income.
taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/25-pe...
taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/25-pe...