Jacob Rubashkin
@rubashkin.bsky.social
Deputy editor, Inside Elections
Important correction:
November 13, 2025 at 1:42 AM
Important correction:
A rare poll of the Dec. 2 TN-07 special!
Your Community PAC (D) released an Impact Research survey showing Republican Matt Van Epps ahead of Democrat Aftyn Behn, 52-44 percent.
TN-07 was Trump+22 in 2024.
Oct. 16-19, 700 LVs, live caller/text-to-web
yourcommunitypac.org/tn-cd-07
Your Community PAC (D) released an Impact Research survey showing Republican Matt Van Epps ahead of Democrat Aftyn Behn, 52-44 percent.
TN-07 was Trump+22 in 2024.
Oct. 16-19, 700 LVs, live caller/text-to-web
yourcommunitypac.org/tn-cd-07
November 4, 2025 at 1:22 PM
A rare poll of the Dec. 2 TN-07 special!
Your Community PAC (D) released an Impact Research survey showing Republican Matt Van Epps ahead of Democrat Aftyn Behn, 52-44 percent.
TN-07 was Trump+22 in 2024.
Oct. 16-19, 700 LVs, live caller/text-to-web
yourcommunitypac.org/tn-cd-07
Your Community PAC (D) released an Impact Research survey showing Republican Matt Van Epps ahead of Democrat Aftyn Behn, 52-44 percent.
TN-07 was Trump+22 in 2024.
Oct. 16-19, 700 LVs, live caller/text-to-web
yourcommunitypac.org/tn-cd-07
Tl;dr: Collins overperformed by 18% in 2020 off strength among women, college graduates, and older voters — all Dem-leaning constituencies. To win, any opponent will have to cut into her advantage with those voters, who split their ticket between her and Biden, more so than young/non-college men.
November 3, 2025 at 7:55 PM
Tl;dr: Collins overperformed by 18% in 2020 off strength among women, college graduates, and older voters — all Dem-leaning constituencies. To win, any opponent will have to cut into her advantage with those voters, who split their ticket between her and Biden, more so than young/non-college men.
SCOOPLET | Missoula smokejumper Sam Forstag, a local union leader and wildland firefighter, is considering running against GOP Rep. Ryan Zinke in MT-01 (Trump+12, Tester+1), per 3 sources familiar. No decision expected before November.
Forstag spoke at a Bernie rally this year.
Forstag spoke at a Bernie rally this year.
September 24, 2025 at 1:31 PM
SCOOPLET | Missoula smokejumper Sam Forstag, a local union leader and wildland firefighter, is considering running against GOP Rep. Ryan Zinke in MT-01 (Trump+12, Tester+1), per 3 sources familiar. No decision expected before November.
Forstag spoke at a Bernie rally this year.
Forstag spoke at a Bernie rally this year.
Per the WSJ here's the note allegedly signed by Trump for the 2003 Jeffrey Epstein birthday book
www.wsj.com/us-news/law/...
www.wsj.com/us-news/law/...
September 8, 2025 at 6:51 PM
Per the WSJ here's the note allegedly signed by Trump for the 2003 Jeffrey Epstein birthday book
www.wsj.com/us-news/law/...
www.wsj.com/us-news/law/...
Democrats flipped a Trump +11 state Senate seat in Iowa tonight, by a wide margin, continuing a streak of special election over-performances in the Hawkeye State and breaking the GOP legislative supermajority. At the current margin it would be a 20 point swing toward Democrats.
August 27, 2025 at 1:21 AM
Democrats flipped a Trump +11 state Senate seat in Iowa tonight, by a wide margin, continuing a streak of special election over-performances in the Hawkeye State and breaking the GOP legislative supermajority. At the current margin it would be a 20 point swing toward Democrats.
A new poll from the pro-Raja Krishnamoorthi Impact Fund shows the congressman out front in the IL-Sen Democratic primary to succeed Sen. Dick Durbin.
Krishnamoorthi 38
Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton 17
Rep. Robin Kelly 7
(8/8-10, 615 LVs, mixed mode, ±3.95%)
Krishnamoorthi 38
Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton 17
Rep. Robin Kelly 7
(8/8-10, 615 LVs, mixed mode, ±3.95%)
August 12, 2025 at 10:27 PM
A new poll from the pro-Raja Krishnamoorthi Impact Fund shows the congressman out front in the IL-Sen Democratic primary to succeed Sen. Dick Durbin.
Krishnamoorthi 38
Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton 17
Rep. Robin Kelly 7
(8/8-10, 615 LVs, mixed mode, ±3.95%)
Krishnamoorthi 38
Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton 17
Rep. Robin Kelly 7
(8/8-10, 615 LVs, mixed mode, ±3.95%)
Didn’t know they made Moldovan ambassadors at the Pete Buttigieg factory
August 12, 2025 at 6:12 PM
Didn’t know they made Moldovan ambassadors at the Pete Buttigieg factory
Beto 2018 (lost by 2%) would have won one more congressional district than Obama 2012 (lost by 16%) under the new map proposed by Texas Republicans.
July 30, 2025 at 5:18 PM
Beto 2018 (lost by 2%) would have won one more congressional district than Obama 2012 (lost by 16%) under the new map proposed by Texas Republicans.
NEWS | Attorney and former Secret Service special agent Logan Forsythe is “seriously considering a bid and is likely to run” for Senate in Kentucky as a Democrat next year. The 36-year-old Western Kentucky native is now a personal injury attorney in Lexington.
July 26, 2025 at 6:03 PM
NEWS | Attorney and former Secret Service special agent Logan Forsythe is “seriously considering a bid and is likely to run” for Senate in Kentucky as a Democrat next year. The 36-year-old Western Kentucky native is now a personal injury attorney in Lexington.
“You go check me out 1am in the morning, I’m sitting in the back of a closed barbershop or beauty salon, smoking a cigar or drinking some Henny, or a single malt scotch.”
July 25, 2025 at 12:47 AM
“You go check me out 1am in the morning, I’m sitting in the back of a closed barbershop or beauty salon, smoking a cigar or drinking some Henny, or a single malt scotch.”
Can’t believe my gym implemented ranked choice voting before the DC council did
July 24, 2025 at 4:48 PM
Can’t believe my gym implemented ranked choice voting before the DC council did
🚨NEWS | Pennsylvania firefighter union chief Bob Brooks is gearing up to run as a Democrat in toss-up PA-07, per two Pennsylvania Democratic sources. Brooks, a 20-year veteran of the Bethlehem FD, would be the fourth major candidate running against GOP Rep. Ryan Mackenzie.
July 23, 2025 at 12:02 AM
🚨NEWS | Pennsylvania firefighter union chief Bob Brooks is gearing up to run as a Democrat in toss-up PA-07, per two Pennsylvania Democratic sources. Brooks, a 20-year veteran of the Bethlehem FD, would be the fourth major candidate running against GOP Rep. Ryan Mackenzie.
Kyrsten Sinema (no longer a senator) spent nearly $400,000 in campaign funds over the past three months, including:
-$86k on airfare and in-flight services
-$86k on security detail (including $600 on ski tickets)
-$7k on meals
-$86k on airfare and in-flight services
-$86k on security detail (including $600 on ski tickets)
-$7k on meals
July 14, 2025 at 6:27 PM
Kyrsten Sinema (no longer a senator) spent nearly $400,000 in campaign funds over the past three months, including:
-$86k on airfare and in-flight services
-$86k on security detail (including $600 on ski tickets)
-$7k on meals
-$86k on airfare and in-flight services
-$86k on security detail (including $600 on ski tickets)
-$7k on meals
NEWS | Another potential NE-02 Democratic candidate now that Bacon retired is former VA Deputy Assistant Secretary Kishla Askins, a physician's assistant who spent 30 years in the Navy, including as a medical officer and DOD official. She most recently was COO of an Arctic-focused consulting firm.
June 30, 2025 at 4:27 PM
NEWS | Another potential NE-02 Democratic candidate now that Bacon retired is former VA Deputy Assistant Secretary Kishla Askins, a physician's assistant who spent 30 years in the Navy, including as a medical officer and DOD official. She most recently was COO of an Arctic-focused consulting firm.
Low propensity voters breaking heavily to one candidate helping them pull off a polling upset? Never heard of that happening before
June 25, 2025 at 3:03 AM
Low propensity voters breaking heavily to one candidate helping them pull off a polling upset? Never heard of that happening before
Brighton Beach to the rest of southern Brooklyn
June 25, 2025 at 2:48 AM
Brighton Beach to the rest of southern Brooklyn
Mamdani still up 7.8 percent with 84 percent counted — he’s gonna come in first and by all accounts Cuomo will not be able to catch him the RCV
June 25, 2025 at 1:48 AM
Mamdani still up 7.8 percent with 84 percent counted — he’s gonna come in first and by all accounts Cuomo will not be able to catch him the RCV
I would simply not attend www.nytimes.com/2025/06/20/s...
June 21, 2025 at 5:50 PM
I would simply not attend www.nytimes.com/2025/06/20/s...
Early voting in NYC continues to run more than double what it was in 2021.
Brooklyn ⬆️2.5x
Manhattan ⬆️2.2x
Queens ⬆️2.2x
Bronx ⬆️1.5x
Staten Island ⬆️1.3x
Brooklyn ⬆️2.5x
Manhattan ⬆️2.2x
Queens ⬆️2.2x
Bronx ⬆️1.5x
Staten Island ⬆️1.3x
June 16, 2025 at 11:39 PM
Early voting in NYC continues to run more than double what it was in 2021.
Brooklyn ⬆️2.5x
Manhattan ⬆️2.2x
Queens ⬆️2.2x
Bronx ⬆️1.5x
Staten Island ⬆️1.3x
Brooklyn ⬆️2.5x
Manhattan ⬆️2.2x
Queens ⬆️2.2x
Bronx ⬆️1.5x
Staten Island ⬆️1.3x
NYC mayoral Day 1 early voting is nearly double what it was in 2021 (that was the first mayoral race with early voting). Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens lead the way.
June 14, 2025 at 11:22 PM
NYC mayoral Day 1 early voting is nearly double what it was in 2021 (that was the first mayoral race with early voting). Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens lead the way.
And surely it's a counterfactual but is the implication that Noem's security really would have seen and recognized this tiny pin and treated Padilla any differently than they did on video? Keeping in mind that he identified himself as "Senator Alex Padilla" very quickly.
June 13, 2025 at 2:30 PM
And surely it's a counterfactual but is the implication that Noem's security really would have seen and recognized this tiny pin and treated Padilla any differently than they did on video? Keeping in mind that he identified himself as "Senator Alex Padilla" very quickly.
One frustrating element of the Padilla discourse is the bad-faith fixation on "not wearing his security pin." Those pins are for free reign of the Capitol complex, not for federal buildings in CA. And unlike House members, many senators don't even wear pins in the Capitol, as seen here >>
June 13, 2025 at 2:30 PM
One frustrating element of the Padilla discourse is the bad-faith fixation on "not wearing his security pin." Those pins are for free reign of the Capitol complex, not for federal buildings in CA. And unlike House members, many senators don't even wear pins in the Capitol, as seen here >>
4 Democrats didn’t vote and another 3 Democratic seats are vacant due to member deaths
Four Democratic absences (Correa, Beatty, Randall and Norcross) and the deaths of Grijalva, Turner and Connelly left the Democrats down 7 votes as the bill passed by 2.
Two Republicans also didn’t vote.
Four Democratic absences (Correa, Beatty, Randall and Norcross) and the deaths of Grijalva, Turner and Connelly left the Democrats down 7 votes as the bill passed by 2.
Two Republicans also didn’t vote.
June 12, 2025 at 9:48 PM
4 Democrats didn’t vote and another 3 Democratic seats are vacant due to member deaths
Four Democratic absences (Correa, Beatty, Randall and Norcross) and the deaths of Grijalva, Turner and Connelly left the Democrats down 7 votes as the bill passed by 2.
Two Republicans also didn’t vote.
Four Democratic absences (Correa, Beatty, Randall and Norcross) and the deaths of Grijalva, Turner and Connelly left the Democrats down 7 votes as the bill passed by 2.
Two Republicans also didn’t vote.
The poll included head-to-head matchups between Wagner and Wainwright as well as message testing.
Democratic strategists are skeptical that the 2006 World Series champion will run, especially as it would mean giving up a lucrative broadcasting deal on MLB on Fox.
Democratic strategists are skeptical that the 2006 World Series champion will run, especially as it would mean giving up a lucrative broadcasting deal on MLB on Fox.
June 9, 2025 at 7:29 PM
The poll included head-to-head matchups between Wagner and Wainwright as well as message testing.
Democratic strategists are skeptical that the 2006 World Series champion will run, especially as it would mean giving up a lucrative broadcasting deal on MLB on Fox.
Democratic strategists are skeptical that the 2006 World Series champion will run, especially as it would mean giving up a lucrative broadcasting deal on MLB on Fox.