If Dems could get back their Clintonian margins among Latinos but keep their Bidenesque wins in the cities and suburbs, could they break the new map, which was drawn with the Latino shift to Trump in mind?

The short answer: no. The longer answer? Read on: www.insideelections.com/news/article...

Specifically, we had to create a Frankenstein candidate who possessed all of the strengths of Clinton among Latinos, but also Biden and Beto among Black voters and white suburbanites. That could help us estimate the "best case scenario" for a Democrat in each district.

Tl;dr: Collins overperformed by 18% in 2020 off strength among women, college graduates, and older voters — all Dem-leaning constituencies. To win, any opponent will have to cut into her advantage with those voters, who split their ticket between her and Biden, more so than young/non-college men.

Thanks for the tag

Agreed, and when I signed on I pointed the organizers to a number of very talented women but unfortunately it didn’t come to fruition.

Readers of Inside Elections knew this tidbit a week ago thanks to our 101-district House overview that included hundreds of names of current and potential House candidates across the country. If you're not subscribing, you're already behind.
insideelections.com/edition/9/17

Of course, that kind of resource diversion game is less helpful when you need to flip 4 seats, not just hold serve like in 2022. The Dem majority is based on ME + NC, then two of OH, IA, and TX — none of which will come anywhere close to easy. Ohio alone wouldn’t cut it.

2022 is illustrative of the effect a competitive Ohio race can have on the map even if Democrats don’t win. Tim Ryan’s spirited campaign + JD Vance’s struggles forced Republicans to spend $10s of millions that could have bucked up candidates elsewhere, helping Dems go +1 overall.