Reposted by Sam Atis
The common narrative that AI is underwhelming relative to hype is missing the forest for the trees on the pace of progress. Timelines are shortening.
At the annual EU budget conference today, @vonderleyen.ec.europa.eu said "we thought AI would only approach human reasoning around 2050. Now we expect this to happen already next year." ec.europa.eu/commission/p...
Press corner | European Commission
Speech by President von der Leyen at the Annual EU Budget Conference 2025\nBrussels, 20 May 2025\n \n“Check against delivery” \nMinister Cuerpo,\nCommissioner Serafin,\nLadies and Gentlemen,\nIt is a pleasur
ec.europa.eu
May 20, 2025 at 7:56 PM
The common narrative that AI is underwhelming relative to hype is missing the forest for the trees on the pace of progress. Timelines are shortening.
Reposted by Sam Atis
🚨 NEW PAPER: When low-income Americans get $1,000/month for 3 years, what happens to their political views & behavior?
The OpenResearch Unconditional income Study reveals surprising findings about the effects of income on politics... 🧵
The OpenResearch Unconditional income Study reveals surprising findings about the effects of income on politics... 🧵
December 2, 2024 at 7:00 PM
🚨 NEW PAPER: When low-income Americans get $1,000/month for 3 years, what happens to their political views & behavior?
The OpenResearch Unconditional income Study reveals surprising findings about the effects of income on politics... 🧵
The OpenResearch Unconditional income Study reveals surprising findings about the effects of income on politics... 🧵
Reposted by Sam Atis
Do people become more likely to vote when they get more cash?
And what about their political beliefs? Do they change with more money?
This new working paper uses a unique RCT and finds no effects of cash on political participation or engagement.
Political preferences also largely do not change.
And what about their political beliefs? Do they change with more money?
This new working paper uses a unique RCT and finds no effects of cash on political participation or engagement.
Political preferences also largely do not change.
December 2, 2024 at 2:58 PM
Do people become more likely to vote when they get more cash?
And what about their political beliefs? Do they change with more money?
This new working paper uses a unique RCT and finds no effects of cash on political participation or engagement.
Political preferences also largely do not change.
And what about their political beliefs? Do they change with more money?
This new working paper uses a unique RCT and finds no effects of cash on political participation or engagement.
Political preferences also largely do not change.
Reposted by Sam Atis
Bremen is one of Germany's few cities providing data to track spatial inequality in voter turnout over a long time span. In the 1980s, turnout varied little by neighborhood class composition. More than 30 years later, historic working-class neighborhoods now exhibit markedly lower turnout rates. 👇
November 27, 2024 at 7:32 AM
Bremen is one of Germany's few cities providing data to track spatial inequality in voter turnout over a long time span. In the 1980s, turnout varied little by neighborhood class composition. More than 30 years later, historic working-class neighborhoods now exhibit markedly lower turnout rates. 👇
Reposted by Sam Atis
According to me go.bsky.app/D34oYEo
November 25, 2024 at 10:29 PM
According to me go.bsky.app/D34oYEo
Reposted by Sam Atis
A thread about being wrong:
5 years ago, we wrote a paper about how how newly enfranchised 16-year-olds vote in Austria. But we were wrong.
This year, @elisabethgraf.bsky.social, @schnizzl.bsky.social, Sylvia Kritzinger and I are setting the record straight: authors.elsevier.com/c/1juT5xRaZk...
5 years ago, we wrote a paper about how how newly enfranchised 16-year-olds vote in Austria. But we were wrong.
This year, @elisabethgraf.bsky.social, @schnizzl.bsky.social, Sylvia Kritzinger and I are setting the record straight: authors.elsevier.com/c/1juT5xRaZk...
November 21, 2024 at 6:01 PM
A thread about being wrong:
5 years ago, we wrote a paper about how how newly enfranchised 16-year-olds vote in Austria. But we were wrong.
This year, @elisabethgraf.bsky.social, @schnizzl.bsky.social, Sylvia Kritzinger and I are setting the record straight: authors.elsevier.com/c/1juT5xRaZk...
5 years ago, we wrote a paper about how how newly enfranchised 16-year-olds vote in Austria. But we were wrong.
This year, @elisabethgraf.bsky.social, @schnizzl.bsky.social, Sylvia Kritzinger and I are setting the record straight: authors.elsevier.com/c/1juT5xRaZk...
Reposted by Sam Atis
Dr Lawrence Newport is Britain’s most effective campaigner.
After getting XL Bullies banned, he’s turned his sights on the criminal justice system and the need to focus resources on “prolific offenders”.
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/11...
After getting XL Bullies banned, he’s turned his sights on the criminal justice system and the need to focus resources on “prolific offenders”.
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/11...
‘I got XL bullies banned – now I am setting my sights on jailing career criminals for good’
Dr Lawrence Newport, who exposed death surge by bully dogs, campaigns to push Government for tougher approach on crime
www.telegraph.co.uk
November 23, 2024 at 1:41 PM
Dr Lawrence Newport is Britain’s most effective campaigner.
After getting XL Bullies banned, he’s turned his sights on the criminal justice system and the need to focus resources on “prolific offenders”.
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/11...
After getting XL Bullies banned, he’s turned his sights on the criminal justice system and the need to focus resources on “prolific offenders”.
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/11...
Reposted by Sam Atis
Kieran Healy is a prince amongst #sociologist, and we should all work up the courage to follow his example #AcademicWriting #AcademicChatter
November 22, 2024 at 7:50 AM
Kieran Healy is a prince amongst #sociologist, and we should all work up the courage to follow his example #AcademicWriting #AcademicChatter
Reposted by Sam Atis
Yet it doesn't take a genius to realise class does not mean what it used to. Traditional labels like "working" or "middle" class labels tell us increasingly little about someone's economic situation.
Most people in "professional" jobs say they are working class...
2/4
Most people in "professional" jobs say they are working class...
2/4
November 21, 2024 at 8:20 PM
Yet it doesn't take a genius to realise class does not mean what it used to. Traditional labels like "working" or "middle" class labels tell us increasingly little about someone's economic situation.
Most people in "professional" jobs say they are working class...
2/4
Most people in "professional" jobs say they are working class...
2/4
Reposted by Sam Atis
New in NHB: We systematically replicated 26 of 41 PNAS social science studies that used MTurk. The approach provides a proof-of-concept for using decision markets to select findings to replicate.
Replication effect sizes were 45% of original effect sizes.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Replication effect sizes were 45% of original effect sizes.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Examining the replicability of online experiments selected by a decision market - Nature Human Behaviour
This study finds that decision markets can be a useful tool for selecting studies for replication. For a sample of 26 online experiments published in PNAS selected by a decision market, the authors fi...
www.nature.com
November 19, 2024 at 11:59 AM
New in NHB: We systematically replicated 26 of 41 PNAS social science studies that used MTurk. The approach provides a proof-of-concept for using decision markets to select findings to replicate.
Replication effect sizes were 45% of original effect sizes.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Replication effect sizes were 45% of original effect sizes.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Claude has a bad vibe
November 18, 2024 at 10:51 PM
Claude has a bad vibe
Reposted by Sam Atis
I made a forecasting and prediction markets starter pack.
Who am I missing? (Probably a lot of people, I don't know who is here) go.bsky.app/TGQ4Rxt
Who am I missing? (Probably a lot of people, I don't know who is here) go.bsky.app/TGQ4Rxt
November 18, 2024 at 5:51 PM
I made a forecasting and prediction markets starter pack.
Who am I missing? (Probably a lot of people, I don't know who is here) go.bsky.app/TGQ4Rxt
Who am I missing? (Probably a lot of people, I don't know who is here) go.bsky.app/TGQ4Rxt
Reposted by Sam Atis
A tale of two platforms:
BlueSky user numbers have hit a new record high in recent days, while the number of people deleting their accounts on X/Twitter has rocketed 🚀
BlueSky user numbers have hit a new record high in recent days, while the number of people deleting their accounts on X/Twitter has rocketed 🚀
November 13, 2024 at 11:21 AM
A tale of two platforms:
BlueSky user numbers have hit a new record high in recent days, while the number of people deleting their accounts on X/Twitter has rocketed 🚀
BlueSky user numbers have hit a new record high in recent days, while the number of people deleting their accounts on X/Twitter has rocketed 🚀
Can someone make an EA BlueSky starter pack and add me to it :^)
November 12, 2024 at 9:56 PM
Can someone make an EA BlueSky starter pack and add me to it :^)
I am on BlueSky now! If you’re reading this, consider becoming my first follower!
November 6, 2024 at 5:55 PM
I am on BlueSky now! If you’re reading this, consider becoming my first follower!
Reposted by Sam Atis
Is there a major anti-incumbent wave since the post-COVID inflation surge? Decided to go through this systematically. Incumbent government performance in wealthy democracies since March 2022, when Ukraine invasion really spiked things upwards: 🧵
November 6, 2024 at 5:45 PM
Is there a major anti-incumbent wave since the post-COVID inflation surge? Decided to go through this systematically. Incumbent government performance in wealthy democracies since March 2022, when Ukraine invasion really spiked things upwards: 🧵