Ghost of Kyiv
@samvydav24.bsky.social
Ukrainian-American focused on the War in Ukraine until this terrible conflict's conclusion. Fundraising for Amicus Ukraine NGO.
Anyway, Brent is hovering close to a 5 year low, and with rapid adoption of EVs in China/Europe/SE Asia, I don't see oil demand spiking any time soon. Also too, Brent Urals spread is at around $23, so do the math.
December 11, 2025 at 8:28 PM
Anyway, Brent is hovering close to a 5 year low, and with rapid adoption of EVs in China/Europe/SE Asia, I don't see oil demand spiking any time soon. Also too, Brent Urals spread is at around $23, so do the math.
And expenditures (down 12%!!). So while the overall deficit only increased by a marginal 86 billion rubles, that is being driven by a reduction of spending exclusively.
On the whole, you can see that the Russian budget is doing much, much worse than previous years, with the crucia December to come.
On the whole, you can see that the Russian budget is doing much, much worse than previous years, with the crucia December to come.
December 9, 2025 at 1:18 PM
And expenditures (down 12%!!). So while the overall deficit only increased by a marginal 86 billion rubles, that is being driven by a reduction of spending exclusively.
On the whole, you can see that the Russian budget is doing much, much worse than previous years, with the crucia December to come.
On the whole, you can see that the Russian budget is doing much, much worse than previous years, with the crucia December to come.
Revenues are flat (up .7%) while expenditures are up 12.5%.
Now, trendlines. First 4 columns are total monthly revenues, oil and gas revenues, non oil gas revenues and expenditures. Next one is monthly deficit/surplus.
What jumps out is the drop in oil and gas revenues (34% yoy!)
Now, trendlines. First 4 columns are total monthly revenues, oil and gas revenues, non oil gas revenues and expenditures. Next one is monthly deficit/surplus.
What jumps out is the drop in oil and gas revenues (34% yoy!)
December 9, 2025 at 1:15 PM
Revenues are flat (up .7%) while expenditures are up 12.5%.
Now, trendlines. First 4 columns are total monthly revenues, oil and gas revenues, non oil gas revenues and expenditures. Next one is monthly deficit/surplus.
What jumps out is the drop in oil and gas revenues (34% yoy!)
Now, trendlines. First 4 columns are total monthly revenues, oil and gas revenues, non oil gas revenues and expenditures. Next one is monthly deficit/surplus.
What jumps out is the drop in oil and gas revenues (34% yoy!)
Ok the russian budget figure for November are out, so let's take a closer look. Borrowing graphics from Istrebin's telegram to go over topline figures and then check into some trend.
Top line: the deficit stands at 4.28 trillion compared to .36 trillion at this time last year.
Top line: the deficit stands at 4.28 trillion compared to .36 trillion at this time last year.
December 9, 2025 at 1:11 PM
Ok the russian budget figure for November are out, so let's take a closer look. Borrowing graphics from Istrebin's telegram to go over topline figures and then check into some trend.
Top line: the deficit stands at 4.28 trillion compared to .36 trillion at this time last year.
Top line: the deficit stands at 4.28 trillion compared to .36 trillion at this time last year.
This is a confusing graph, but worth digging into. The left axis is the spread between Urals and Brent (ie discount), represented by the bar graph. The right axis is the dollar price per barrel, represented by the two line graphs.
Bottom line- Urals oil sold for $44 a barrel in November.
Bottom line- Urals oil sold for $44 a barrel in November.
December 7, 2025 at 3:06 PM
This is a confusing graph, but worth digging into. The left axis is the spread between Urals and Brent (ie discount), represented by the bar graph. The right axis is the dollar price per barrel, represented by the two line graphs.
Bottom line- Urals oil sold for $44 a barrel in November.
Bottom line- Urals oil sold for $44 a barrel in November.
Kyiv School of Economics is projecting a 7.8 trillion ruble deficit for russia for 2025. That seems about right. Something to keep in mind when the November figures come out a few days from now.
December 2, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Kyiv School of Economics is projecting a 7.8 trillion ruble deficit for russia for 2025. That seems about right. Something to keep in mind when the November figures come out a few days from now.
This is the correct approach. Weaken russia, support Ukraine, prepare to defend yourself. russia will only stop when you make it stop. Enough fantasies and wishful thinking.
December 1, 2025 at 7:07 PM
This is the correct approach. Weaken russia, support Ukraine, prepare to defend yourself. russia will only stop when you make it stop. Enough fantasies and wishful thinking.
Call the Hotel House and your representatives to say no to coerced, u just "peace" that leaves Ukraine completely exposed to future russian aggression.
November 22, 2025 at 12:05 AM
Call the Hotel House and your representatives to say no to coerced, u just "peace" that leaves Ukraine completely exposed to future russian aggression.
Russian oil and natural gas revenue collapse visualized. Lowest revenues since the beginning of the full scale invasion. Combined Ukrainian and American sanctions are working.
November 15, 2025 at 2:46 PM
Russian oil and natural gas revenue collapse visualized. Lowest revenues since the beginning of the full scale invasion. Combined Ukrainian and American sanctions are working.
As Ukrainians would say "Русня шо с ебалом?" What's with the long face?
November 12, 2025 at 11:52 PM
As Ukrainians would say "Русня шо с ебалом?" What's with the long face?
Ok, one last graph. It shows deficit/surplus trend lines for the last 6 years. You can see how much worse this year is vs the last 5. This is not business as usual. This is a catastrophe that is rapidly accelerating.
November 11, 2025 at 4:22 PM
Ok, one last graph. It shows deficit/surplus trend lines for the last 6 years. You can see how much worse this year is vs the last 5. This is not business as usual. This is a catastrophe that is rapidly accelerating.
Reminder that russia's budget deficit was 3.5 trillion rubles in 2024, despite carrying a surplus at the end of October. That's because December is usually when the big spends are put on the books.
Another thing to note, non-oil and gas revenues for October are down(!!) year over year.
Another thing to note, non-oil and gas revenues for October are down(!!) year over year.
November 11, 2025 at 3:47 PM
Reminder that russia's budget deficit was 3.5 trillion rubles in 2024, despite carrying a surplus at the end of October. That's because December is usually when the big spends are put on the books.
Another thing to note, non-oil and gas revenues for October are down(!!) year over year.
Another thing to note, non-oil and gas revenues for October are down(!!) year over year.
Ok, here is the full accounting of the October budget deficit from russia's ministry of finance.
Big takeaways:
1. The deficit this year is 4.2 trillion compared to a 124 billion surplus (!!) at this time last year.
2. Oil/gas revenues are down 21%(!!!) percent vs last year.
Big takeaways:
1. The deficit this year is 4.2 trillion compared to a 124 billion surplus (!!) at this time last year.
2. Oil/gas revenues are down 21%(!!!) percent vs last year.
November 11, 2025 at 3:40 PM
Ok, here is the full accounting of the October budget deficit from russia's ministry of finance.
Big takeaways:
1. The deficit this year is 4.2 trillion compared to a 124 billion surplus (!!) at this time last year.
2. Oil/gas revenues are down 21%(!!!) percent vs last year.
Big takeaways:
1. The deficit this year is 4.2 trillion compared to a 124 billion surplus (!!) at this time last year.
2. Oil/gas revenues are down 21%(!!!) percent vs last year.
Waiting for someone to post full breakdowns for revenues and spending, but the russian budget deficit has increased from 3.8 trillion rubles in September to 4.2 billion rubles at the end of October.
The worst is yet to come, russia always books most of their annual deficit in December.
The worst is yet to come, russia always books most of their annual deficit in December.
November 11, 2025 at 2:55 PM
Waiting for someone to post full breakdowns for revenues and spending, but the russian budget deficit has increased from 3.8 trillion rubles in September to 4.2 billion rubles at the end of October.
The worst is yet to come, russia always books most of their annual deficit in December.
The worst is yet to come, russia always books most of their annual deficit in December.
As some may know from my account in the other place, I was a bit of a Philly politics nerd before the full scale invasion. And there IS an election happening in PA at the moment, most importantly for state Supreme Court justices. And turnout is looking to blow 2001 out of the water:
November 4, 2025 at 10:20 PM
As some may know from my account in the other place, I was a bit of a Philly politics nerd before the full scale invasion. And there IS an election happening in PA at the moment, most importantly for state Supreme Court justices. And turnout is looking to blow 2001 out of the water:
This is America (2025)
October 28, 2025 at 5:26 PM
This is America (2025)
Cancelled my WaPo subscription, so if you have any recs for good coverage, lmk.
October 6, 2025 at 4:05 PM
Cancelled my WaPo subscription, so if you have any recs for good coverage, lmk.
Very weird thing to get blocked over, but so it goes.
October 5, 2025 at 11:53 PM
Very weird thing to get blocked over, but so it goes.
There have been many hinge points that got us to this bleak current reality (Florida 1999 Supreme Court case, 9/11, Patriot Act, Iraq invasion, global financial crisis, Crimea, Syria, but her emails, Covid, J6, etc) But if I had to pick one that was emblematic of everything, it has to be this.
October 1, 2025 at 12:59 AM
There have been many hinge points that got us to this bleak current reality (Florida 1999 Supreme Court case, 9/11, Patriot Act, Iraq invasion, global financial crisis, Crimea, Syria, but her emails, Covid, J6, etc) But if I had to pick one that was emblematic of everything, it has to be this.
Cool, cool, cool.
September 30, 2025 at 5:40 PM
Cool, cool, cool.
Whoah, almost like there's a pattern.
September 29, 2025 at 8:38 PM
Whoah, almost like there's a pattern.
I mean, come on folks, this is not a lot to go on!
September 29, 2025 at 6:24 PM
I mean, come on folks, this is not a lot to go on!
We're at the open state censorship of broadcast TV portion of the program. An unambiguous, mafia style threat. Chilling.
September 17, 2025 at 11:38 PM
We're at the open state censorship of broadcast TV portion of the program. An unambiguous, mafia style threat. Chilling.