Dr Sari Arho Havrén
@sariarhohavren.bsky.social
4.7K followers 460 following 370 posts
Geopolitics, China analyst. Geopolitical strategic foresight. China’s foreign policy. History,International Relations PhD. RUSI Associate Fellow. Opinions mine. 🇨🇳🇪🇺🇭🇰🇫🇮🇬🇧
Posts Media Videos Starter Packs
sariarhohavren.bsky.social
Meanwhile, the EU views China as bad in helping Russia in its war efforts, but India as good in helping Russia, considering how desperate the EU is to close its trade deal w 🇮🇳 by the end of the year.

And fwiw, 🇨🇳 should be held responsible for being the biggest enabler of Russia’s war machine. 3/3
sariarhohavren.bsky.social
In August, Modi “reiterated India’s commitment to extend all possible support [for the earliest restoration of peace]” in Ukraine directly to Zelenskyy.

And yet, as many times before, Modi calls Putin—a war criminal—his friend. 2/3
sariarhohavren.bsky.social
Inconsistency in foreign affairs is the new normal.
Modi just congratulated Putin:
“Spoke w my friend President Putin and conveyed warm birthday greetings and best wishes for his good health and long life. Deeply appreciate his personal commitment to deepening India–Russia ties over the years.” 1/3
sariarhohavren.bsky.social
⤵️ tells us that treating China on the basis of not upsetting it undermines national security and judicial processes. The prosecution couldn't bring official evidence to prove China as an enemy because the government documents refer to it as a Geo-Strategic Challenge.
mbrooker.bsky.social
If China isn’t a threat to national security then no country is 🤯

on.ft.com/3IxutVG Spying case collapsed after UK refused to label China a ‘threat’, prosecutors say
Spying case collapsed after UK refused to label China a ‘threat’, prosecutors say
Crown Prosecution Service had charged two Britons with espionage offences
on.ft.com
sariarhohavren.bsky.social
“How can we move from a reactive attitude to a proactive attitude, one where we are not just trying to protect ourselves against weaknesses, but where we are also leveraging our strength?”

Superb reporting from @fbermingham.bsky.social once again 3/3

www.scmp.com/news/china/a...
Europe hunts for chokepoints it can weaponise in a new age of economic warfare
Bureaucrats look for leverage against coercion from Beijing and Washington but what would it take for Brussels to act?
www.scmp.com
sariarhohavren.bsky.social
“We have dependencies that others weaponise, but others are also dependent on us,” Sabine Weyand, the EU’s top trade official, said in the European Parliament last week.
2/
sariarhohavren.bsky.social
This is fundamentally necessary, and as a European, I am pleased that our policymakers are finally doing the bare minimum. This has been obvious for a decade (if not more, considering the number of industries we would have lost to China). 1/
Reposted by Dr Sari Arho Havrén
etiennesoula.bsky.social
So, to summarize: EV tariffs aren't working, the EU is now more dependent on China than ever, member states are cooling on a joint response, and the continent's two biggest economies are either paralyzed or lethargic. Everything is going great @noahbarkin.bsky.social.

www.gmfus.org/news/watchin...
Watching China in Europe—October 2025
www.gmfus.org
sariarhohavren.bsky.social
⬇️ The US moves fast, the EU by design like a 🐌. Yet, the risks and dependencies are the same as in the US. The bloc launched its de-risking two and a half years ago; nothing considerable has happened.
iikkakorhonen.bsky.social
”..likely to be more such White House deals for mining projects — specifically those that would produce metal needed by the defence sector, such as antimony. Those materials were likely to be more of a focus than battery metals such as lithium and nickel”🇺🇸

on.ft.com/3VSE7oU
White House says it will take 10% stake in Trilogy Metals
Shares in mining company more than double on announcement from US secretary of interior
on.ft.com
Reposted by Dr Sari Arho Havrén
darthputinkgb.bsky.social
OTD in 2006 journalist & activist Anna Politkovskaya was shot dead. Whoever is responsible for having her killed is still at large. And turns 73 today.
sariarhohavren.bsky.social
⤵️ tells us that treating China on the basis of not upsetting it undermines national security and judicial processes. The prosecution couldn't bring official evidence to prove China as an enemy because the gov documents refer to it as a Geo-Strategic Challenge.

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...
China threatened to retaliate against UK over foreign influence rules
Exclusive: Chinese officials warned that targeting its security apparatus would negatively affect relations
www.theguardian.com
sariarhohavren.bsky.social
That [self-driving tech] expansion is already underway. Reuters spoke to a dozen company executives who described how Chinese firms are using Europe as a beachhead for global expansion, mirroring the push with EVs. 2/2
sariarhohavren.bsky.social
Build the dependencies and they will kowtow. Beijing’s geoeconomic power on display in the 🇬🇧 — without 🇨🇳 doing anything, simply harvesting the benefits.
sariarhohavren.bsky.social
In her interview, Mrs Merkel gives the impression that Poland and the Baltic states prevented diplomacy with Moscow, and therefore, after her departure, Russia’s aggression broke out.

There’s also, if not entirely another, but a complementary explanation.
It was and is all about HER.
sariarhohavren.bsky.social
While Macron is right, with regulation or top-down wishes, Macron, France or the EU will not create equivalent, competing digital platforms.
sariarhohavren.bsky.social
“A former senior U.S. official who knows Trump well said the U.S. president does not fully recognize that the U.S. and China have entered a new phase of all-out strategic competition for global leadership.” 2/
sariarhohavren.bsky.social
“Although Trump has railed against China over trade, he has shown little appetite for deepening U.S. military engagement in Asia to counter Beijing's military buildup. He has shown no inclination to contest spheres of influence with China by viewing the world as a geopolitical chessboard.” 1/
sariarhohavren.bsky.social
Sounds like something the PRC does, although 🇨🇳 has - for the most part - automated the surveillance long ago.
sariarhohavren.bsky.social
Countries that use hybrid attacks and influence seek to exploit weaknesses and loopholes in their opponents’ systems and legislation. To avoid such incidents, NATO member states should bring their national legislation up to date. 4/4
sariarhohavren.bsky.social
There was also not enough evidence that the cables had been cut intentionally, another reason that torpedoed the court’s ability to assess criminal liability. 3/
sariarhohavren.bsky.social
The court interpreted that the Finnish Criminal Code cannot be applied to the case, as the alleged crimes occurred before the vessel entered Finnish territorial waters.
2/