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Simon Wren-Lewis @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social · 7h

Y'days post: The uphill struggle to stop Reform mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/10/the-...
Only two political parties are likely to stop a Reform government: Labour and Reform themselves. While Starmer at their conference showed Labour can fight Reform, they also fight against their core vote.

The uphill struggle to stop Reform

Making political predictions is foolish, but I can only see two political parties that can stop a Reform government in the UK: Labour and ...

mainlymacro.blogspot.com

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Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis

Judith Freedman @judithfreedman.bsky.social · 1d

Spot on on how politicians think about tax. Unfortunately I agree likely we shall have minor fiddling again. But better options exist - eg Resolution Foundation suggestion. Since even small tweaks upset someone, why not be bolder and go for principled reform? Politics, that’s why.

Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 1d

New post just out:

"Staying alive vs taking control"

Labour's big choice at the budget is whether they just want to try and survive it or whether they're willing to take some bigger risks that would have future payoffs.

(£/free trial)

open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/s...

Staying alive vs taking control

Labour's budget choices

open.substack.com

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Simon Wren-Lewis @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social · 1d

New post: The uphill struggle to stop Reform
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/10/the-...
Only 2 political parties are likely to stop a Reform government: Labour and Reform themselves. While Starmer at their conference showed Labour can fight Reform, they also continue to fight their core vote.

The uphill struggle to stop Reform

Making political predictions is foolish, but I can only see two political parties that can stop a Reform government in the UK: Labour and ...

mainlymacro.blogspot.com

2 7 10

Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis

Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 2d

Not a single mention of the NHS--not least in the section on what the Tories did in government that, in her words, "lost us the trust and confidence of the public". Unless the Party gets the extent to which the crippling of key public services helped lose them the election, then they're truly sunk.

Kemi Badenoch’s opening speech to Conservative Party Conference 2025

YouTube video by Conservatives

youtu.be

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Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis

Rick @flipchartrick.bsky.social · 3d

Which is why those at the political extremes don’t like it.

Extremism relies on wishful thinking.

Simon Wren-Lewis @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social · 3d

ICYMI: Misunderstandings on the left (and elsewhere) about the OBR, independence and the bond market mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/09/misu...
Government delegating some technical tasks to independent experts doesn't create a democratic deficit, but it helps transparency + avoids wishful thinking.

Misunderstandings on the left (and elsewhere) about the OBR, independence and the bond market

I often see pieces from those on the left criticising the OBR. Here is Louise Haigh , for example, talking about the “rigid orthodoxy of t...

mainlymacro.blogspot.com

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Simon Wren-Lewis @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social · 3d

ICYMI: Misunderstandings on the left (and elsewhere) about the OBR, independence and the bond market mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/09/misu...
Government delegating some technical tasks to independent experts doesn't create a democratic deficit, but it helps transparency + avoids wishful thinking.

Misunderstandings on the left (and elsewhere) about the OBR, independence and the bond market

I often see pieces from those on the left criticising the OBR. Here is Louise Haigh , for example, talking about the “rigid orthodoxy of t...

mainlymacro.blogspot.com

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Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis

Mike Galsworthy @mikegalsworthy.bsky.social · 4d

History repeats.

280 5.6K 12K

Simon Wren-Lewis @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social · 4d

Reliant on the Treasury for what?

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Simon Wren-Lewis @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social · 4d

And why would the Treasury doing the forecasts change this?

Simon Wren-Lewis @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social · 4d

So you think the Treasury would do a better job?

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Simon Wren-Lewis @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social · 4d

In what way did the OBR support his approach to economics?

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Simon Wren-Lewis @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social · 5d

But public investment is not part of the fiscal rule that is currently binding, and I've always said that it shouldn't be a part of any fiscal rule.

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Simon Wren-Lewis @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social · 5d

No one is saying you shouldn't be critical. My point is at least you know what they do, while if the government did the forecast you probably wouldn't. Also not sure they are that big an organisation given what they have to do.

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Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis

Ian Dunt @iandunt.bsky.social · 5d

The politics of drawing a moral line: When we need to call out racism for what it is open.substack.com/pub/iandunt/...

The politics of drawing a moral line

The politics of drawing a moral line.

open.substack.com

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Simon Wren-Lewis @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social · 5d

Thanks. Nicely put.

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Simon Wren-Lewis @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social · 5d

Like what? (Reeves has made it 3 years now, which is a mistake in my view.)

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Simon Wren-Lewis @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social · 5d

This weeks post: Misunderstandings on the left (and elsewhere) about the OBR, independence and the bond market mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/09/misu...
The government delegating some technical tasks to independent experts doesn't create a democratic deficit, but it does avoid wishful thinking.

Misunderstandings on the left (and elsewhere) about the OBR, independence and the bond market

I often see pieces from those on the left criticising the OBR. Here is Louise Haigh , for example, talking about the “rigid orthodoxy of t...

mainlymacro.blogspot.com

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Simon Wren-Lewis @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social · 6d

What possible politics am I blind to?

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Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis

JamesSmithRF @jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 6d

This is good from Simon Wren-Lewis on why the country's fiscal woes are not caused by OBR forecasts, the bond market or (most improbably) the frequency of fiscal forecasts.

Simon Wren-Lewis @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social · 6d

This weeks post: Misunderstandings on the left (and elsewhere) about the OBR, independence and the bond market mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/09/misu...
The government delegating some technical tasks to independent experts doesn't create a democratic deficit, but it does avoid wishful thinking.

Misunderstandings on the left (and elsewhere) about the OBR, independence and the bond market

I often see pieces from those on the left criticising the OBR. Here is Louise Haigh , for example, talking about the “rigid orthodoxy of t...

mainlymacro.blogspot.com

5 17

Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis

Chris Downs @chris-downs.bsky.social · 6d

"It is relatively expensive for the UK government to borrow not because of the size of the deficit or the amount of UK government debt, but because UK short term interest rates are relatively high because UK inflation is relatively high." - @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social ⬇️

Simon Wren-Lewis @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social · 8d

New post: Misunderstandings on the left (and elsewhere) about the OBR, independence and the bond market
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/09/misu...
The government delegating some highly technical tasks to independent experts doesn't create a democratic deficit, but it does avoid wishful thinking.

Misunderstandings on the left (and elsewhere) about the OBR, independence and the bond market

I often see pieces from those on the left criticising the OBR. Here is Louise Haigh , for example, talking about the “rigid orthodoxy of t...

mainlymacro.blogspot.com

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Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis

Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 6d

The redoubtable @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social with a useful reminder that you can't have your cake and eat it too. (Source: mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/09/misu...)

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Simon Wren-Lewis @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social · 6d

This weeks post: Misunderstandings on the left (and elsewhere) about the OBR, independence and the bond market mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/09/misu...
The government delegating some technical tasks to independent experts doesn't create a democratic deficit, but it does avoid wishful thinking.

Misunderstandings on the left (and elsewhere) about the OBR, independence and the bond market

I often see pieces from those on the left criticising the OBR. Here is Louise Haigh , for example, talking about the “rigid orthodoxy of t...

mainlymacro.blogspot.com

8 18

Simon Wren-Lewis @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social · 7d

Y'days post: Misunderstandings on the left (and elsewhere) about the OBR, independence and the bond market mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/09/misu...
The government delegating some highly technical tasks to independent experts doesn't create a democratic deficit, but it does avoid wishful thinking.

Misunderstandings on the left (and elsewhere) about the OBR, independence and the bond market

I often see pieces from those on the left criticising the OBR. Here is Louise Haigh , for example, talking about the “rigid orthodoxy of t...

mainlymacro.blogspot.com

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Reposted by Simon Wren-Lewis

Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 8d

Absolutely right from Streeting.

But then government/Mahmood need to make crystal clear this applies to people who have arrived since 2021 and are working in NHS/care right now -and that government is not going to change the rules and leave them at the mercy of a future Reform/Conservative govt

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EconReporter @econreporter.bsky.social · 8d

"It could claim, for example, the OBR is underestimating the impact of public investment. That this never happens is generally because the OBR’s judgements are following the consensus, and as a result politicians are not prepared to take a public bet on their own optimism."

Simon Wren-Lewis @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social · 8d

New post: Misunderstandings on the left (and elsewhere) about the OBR, independence and the bond market
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/09/misu...
The government delegating some highly technical tasks to independent experts doesn't create a democratic deficit, but it does avoid wishful thinking.

Misunderstandings on the left (and elsewhere) about the OBR, independence and the bond market

I often see pieces from those on the left criticising the OBR. Here is Louise Haigh , for example, talking about the “rigid orthodoxy of t...

mainlymacro.blogspot.com

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