parker fleming
@statsowar.bsky.social
football | economics | data science
New on the substack: Where'd the explosives go?
cfbgraphs.substack.com/p/footballno...
cfbgraphs.substack.com/p/footballno...
January 30, 2026 at 3:41 PM
New on the substack: Where'd the explosives go?
cfbgraphs.substack.com/p/footballno...
cfbgraphs.substack.com/p/footballno...
DID WE REALLY GET BEAT THAT BAD is now live on cfb-graphs.com.
You can net success rates for all games in a week, or for a specific team, see their net success rate in every game.
You can net success rates for all games in a week, or for a specific team, see their net success rate in every game.
January 23, 2026 at 11:45 PM
DID WE REALLY GET BEAT THAT BAD is now live on cfb-graphs.com.
You can net success rates for all games in a week, or for a specific team, see their net success rate in every game.
You can net success rates for all games in a week, or for a specific team, see their net success rate in every game.
playing around with just making this a square. the rectangle does look better on social, IMO, but the square is nice too
January 23, 2026 at 8:46 PM
playing around with just making this a square. the rectangle does look better on social, IMO, but the square is nice too
📊🏈COLLEGE FOOTBALL'S MOST EFFICIENT TEAMS
2025 FULL SEASON
↗️🟢: Good Offense, Good Defense
↖️🔵: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
↘️🟡: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
↙️🔴: We're Trying Our Best!
2025 FULL SEASON
↗️🟢: Good Offense, Good Defense
↖️🔵: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
↘️🟡: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
↙️🔴: We're Trying Our Best!
January 23, 2026 at 8:44 PM
📊🏈COLLEGE FOOTBALL'S MOST EFFICIENT TEAMS
2025 FULL SEASON
↗️🟢: Good Offense, Good Defense
↖️🔵: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
↘️🟡: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
↙️🔴: We're Trying Our Best!
2025 FULL SEASON
↗️🟢: Good Offense, Good Defense
↖️🔵: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
↘️🟡: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
↙️🔴: We're Trying Our Best!
📊🏈DID WE REALLY GET BEAT THAT BAD?
Season Net Success Rate
FBS vs FBS 2025
~DISASTER GRAPH~
Season Net Success Rate
FBS vs FBS 2025
~DISASTER GRAPH~
January 23, 2026 at 8:42 PM
📊🏈DID WE REALLY GET BEAT THAT BAD?
Season Net Success Rate
FBS vs FBS 2025
~DISASTER GRAPH~
Season Net Success Rate
FBS vs FBS 2025
~DISASTER GRAPH~
For Phantom Island subscribers, I'm back on with Ryan Nanni talking about the roster-building lessons we can learn from Indiana and Miami this year. Enjoy.
January 23, 2026 at 4:23 PM
For Phantom Island subscribers, I'm back on with Ryan Nanni talking about the roster-building lessons we can learn from Indiana and Miami this year. Enjoy.
📊🏈DID WE REALLY GET BEAT THAT BAD?
Net Success Rate in the National Championship
Net Success Rate in the National Championship
January 21, 2026 at 8:45 PM
📊🏈DID WE REALLY GET BEAT THAT BAD?
Net Success Rate in the National Championship
Net Success Rate in the National Championship
Enjoyed this conversation with UM Professor Justin Angle and Montana's Chief Revenue Officer Marcus Welnel about the state of money in college athletics.
Check out A New Angle wherever you listen to podcasts!
Check out A New Angle wherever you listen to podcasts!
January 15, 2026 at 8:24 PM
Enjoyed this conversation with UM Professor Justin Angle and Montana's Chief Revenue Officer Marcus Welnel about the state of money in college athletics.
Check out A New Angle wherever you listen to podcasts!
Check out A New Angle wherever you listen to podcasts!
🏈📊CFP SEMI-FINAL 1 ADVANCED STATS PREVIEW
MIAMI VS OLE MISS
MIAMI VS OLE MISS
January 8, 2026 at 3:33 PM
🏈📊CFP SEMI-FINAL 1 ADVANCED STATS PREVIEW
MIAMI VS OLE MISS
MIAMI VS OLE MISS
🏈📊New Year's Eve Bowls Advanced Stats Previews
RELIAQUEST BOWL: IOWA v VANDERBILT
SUN BOWL: ARIZONA STATE v DUKE
CITRUS BOWL: NEBRASKA v UTAH
LAS VEGAS BOWL: TEXAS v MICHIGAN
cfb-graphs.com
RELIAQUEST BOWL: IOWA v VANDERBILT
SUN BOWL: ARIZONA STATE v DUKE
CITRUS BOWL: NEBRASKA v UTAH
LAS VEGAS BOWL: TEXAS v MICHIGAN
cfb-graphs.com
December 31, 2025 at 2:43 PM
🏈📊New Year's Eve Bowls Advanced Stats Previews
RELIAQUEST BOWL: IOWA v VANDERBILT
SUN BOWL: ARIZONA STATE v DUKE
CITRUS BOWL: NEBRASKA v UTAH
LAS VEGAS BOWL: TEXAS v MICHIGAN
cfb-graphs.com
RELIAQUEST BOWL: IOWA v VANDERBILT
SUN BOWL: ARIZONA STATE v DUKE
CITRUS BOWL: NEBRASKA v UTAH
LAS VEGAS BOWL: TEXAS v MICHIGAN
cfb-graphs.com
a reminder that rushing overview cards are live on cfb-graphs.com
December 29, 2025 at 6:24 PM
a reminder that rushing overview cards are live on cfb-graphs.com
December 23, 2025 at 6:33 PM
📊🏈 College Football's Most Efficient Teams
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play Through the Regular Season
🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️: We're Trying Our Best
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play Through the Regular Season
🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️: We're Trying Our Best
December 8, 2025 at 7:13 PM
📊🏈 College Football's Most Efficient Teams
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play Through the Regular Season
🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️: We're Trying Our Best
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play Through the Regular Season
🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️: We're Trying Our Best
🏈📊College Football's Most Efficient Teams
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 14
🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️: We're trying our best!
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 14
🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️: We're trying our best!
December 1, 2025 at 2:47 PM
🏈📊College Football's Most Efficient Teams
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 14
🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️: We're trying our best!
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 14
🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️: We're trying our best!
Updated EPA by Quarter Chaos Table:
November 26, 2025 at 2:09 PM
Updated EPA by Quarter Chaos Table:
Was curious about which FBS offenses thrived in normal vs non-normal situations.
Definition: Normal is 1st & 10 or less, 2nd and 5 or less. Everything else from scrimmage is "non-normal", all between the 20s.
➡️Better "normal" efficiency
⬆️Better "non-normal" efficiency
Definition: Normal is 1st & 10 or less, 2nd and 5 or less. Everything else from scrimmage is "non-normal", all between the 20s.
➡️Better "normal" efficiency
⬆️Better "non-normal" efficiency
November 25, 2025 at 9:42 PM
Was curious about which FBS offenses thrived in normal vs non-normal situations.
Definition: Normal is 1st & 10 or less, 2nd and 5 or less. Everything else from scrimmage is "non-normal", all between the 20s.
➡️Better "normal" efficiency
⬆️Better "non-normal" efficiency
Definition: Normal is 1st & 10 or less, 2nd and 5 or less. Everything else from scrimmage is "non-normal", all between the 20s.
➡️Better "normal" efficiency
⬆️Better "non-normal" efficiency
One way to evaluate run games in college football is to compare scheme and OL (yards before contact) with RB ability (yards after contact):
Further right => Better scheme/OL
Further up => Better RB talent/ability
Further right => Better scheme/OL
Further up => Better RB talent/ability
November 25, 2025 at 7:02 PM
One way to evaluate run games in college football is to compare scheme and OL (yards before contact) with RB ability (yards after contact):
Further right => Better scheme/OL
Further up => Better RB talent/ability
Further right => Better scheme/OL
Further up => Better RB talent/ability
📊🏈College Football's Most Efficient Teams
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 13
🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️: We're Trying Our Best!
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 13
🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️: We're Trying Our Best!
November 24, 2025 at 4:16 PM
📊🏈College Football's Most Efficient Teams
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 13
🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️: We're Trying Our Best!
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 13
🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️: We're Trying Our Best!
EPA by Quarter Chaos Table
November 17, 2025 at 4:20 PM
EPA by Quarter Chaos Table
