parker fleming
@statsowar.bsky.social
football | economics | data science
Updated EPA by Quarter Chaos Table:
November 26, 2025 at 2:09 PM
Updated EPA by Quarter Chaos Table:
Was curious about which FBS offenses thrived in normal vs non-normal situations.
Definition: Normal is 1st & 10 or less, 2nd and 5 or less. Everything else from scrimmage is "non-normal", all between the 20s.
➡️Better "normal" efficiency
⬆️Better "non-normal" efficiency
Definition: Normal is 1st & 10 or less, 2nd and 5 or less. Everything else from scrimmage is "non-normal", all between the 20s.
➡️Better "normal" efficiency
⬆️Better "non-normal" efficiency
November 25, 2025 at 9:42 PM
Was curious about which FBS offenses thrived in normal vs non-normal situations.
Definition: Normal is 1st & 10 or less, 2nd and 5 or less. Everything else from scrimmage is "non-normal", all between the 20s.
➡️Better "normal" efficiency
⬆️Better "non-normal" efficiency
Definition: Normal is 1st & 10 or less, 2nd and 5 or less. Everything else from scrimmage is "non-normal", all between the 20s.
➡️Better "normal" efficiency
⬆️Better "non-normal" efficiency
One way to evaluate run games in college football is to compare scheme and OL (yards before contact) with RB ability (yards after contact):
Further right => Better scheme/OL
Further up => Better RB talent/ability
Further right => Better scheme/OL
Further up => Better RB talent/ability
November 25, 2025 at 7:02 PM
One way to evaluate run games in college football is to compare scheme and OL (yards before contact) with RB ability (yards after contact):
Further right => Better scheme/OL
Further up => Better RB talent/ability
Further right => Better scheme/OL
Further up => Better RB talent/ability
📊🏈College Football's Most Efficient Teams
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 13
🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️: We're Trying Our Best!
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 13
🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️: We're Trying Our Best!
November 24, 2025 at 4:16 PM
📊🏈College Football's Most Efficient Teams
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 13
🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️: We're Trying Our Best!
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 13
🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️: We're Trying Our Best!
everything i post here is something i posted on X/twitter that i remembered to post over here too
Is this graph post elsewhere online? Looking for week 12 if available
November 18, 2025 at 7:23 PM
everything i post here is something i posted on X/twitter that i remembered to post over here too
EPA by Quarter Chaos Table
November 17, 2025 at 4:20 PM
EPA by Quarter Chaos Table
🏈📊WEEK 12 ADVANCED STATS PREVIEWS
OKLAHOMA AT ALABAMA
IOWA AT USC
TEXAS AT GEORGIA
NOTRE DAME AT PITT
OKLAHOMA AT ALABAMA
IOWA AT USC
TEXAS AT GEORGIA
NOTRE DAME AT PITT
November 10, 2025 at 3:53 PM
🏈📊WEEK 12 ADVANCED STATS PREVIEWS
OKLAHOMA AT ALABAMA
IOWA AT USC
TEXAS AT GEORGIA
NOTRE DAME AT PITT
OKLAHOMA AT ALABAMA
IOWA AT USC
TEXAS AT GEORGIA
NOTRE DAME AT PITT
🏈📊College Football's Most Efficient Teams
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 11
🟢⬆️➡️ Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️ Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️ Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️ We're Trying Our Best!
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 11
🟢⬆️➡️ Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️ Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️ Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️ We're Trying Our Best!
November 10, 2025 at 3:53 PM
🏈📊College Football's Most Efficient Teams
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 11
🟢⬆️➡️ Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️ Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️ Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️ We're Trying Our Best!
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 11
🟢⬆️➡️ Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️ Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️ Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️ We're Trying Our Best!
🏈📊DID WE REALLY GET BEAT THAT BAD?
NET SUCCESS RATES IN WEEK 11
NET SUCCESS RATES IN WEEK 11
November 10, 2025 at 3:43 PM
🏈📊DID WE REALLY GET BEAT THAT BAD?
NET SUCCESS RATES IN WEEK 11
NET SUCCESS RATES IN WEEK 11
🏈📊WEDNESDAY NIGHT ADVANCED STATS PREVIEWS
Kent State @ Ball State
NIU @ Toledo
Kent State @ Ball State
NIU @ Toledo
November 5, 2025 at 4:05 PM
🏈📊WEDNESDAY NIGHT ADVANCED STATS PREVIEWS
Kent State @ Ball State
NIU @ Toledo
Kent State @ Ball State
NIU @ Toledo
How are offenses doing in creating quality drives and finishing those quality drives?
Quality Drive Rate and Points Per Quality Drive
FBS vs FBS through Week 10
Quality Drive Rate and Points Per Quality Drive
FBS vs FBS through Week 10
November 5, 2025 at 2:26 PM
How are offenses doing in creating quality drives and finishing those quality drives?
Quality Drive Rate and Points Per Quality Drive
FBS vs FBS through Week 10
Quality Drive Rate and Points Per Quality Drive
FBS vs FBS through Week 10
How often do teams run passes with pre-snap motion? How often do they target the motioned player when they do?
November 4, 2025 at 3:11 PM
How often do teams run passes with pre-snap motion? How often do they target the motioned player when they do?
📊🏈College Football's Most Efficient Teams
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 10
🟢⬆️➡️ Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬅️⬆️ Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️ Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️ We're Trying Our Best!
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 10
🟢⬆️➡️ Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬅️⬆️ Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️ Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️ We're Trying Our Best!
November 3, 2025 at 3:12 PM
📊🏈College Football's Most Efficient Teams
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 10
🟢⬆️➡️ Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬅️⬆️ Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️ Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️ We're Trying Our Best!
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 10
🟢⬆️➡️ Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬅️⬆️ Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️ Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️ We're Trying Our Best!
Reposted by parker fleming
if you're not currently signed up for PI, you can do that over at phantomisland.show!
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phantomisland.show
October 31, 2025 at 4:56 PM
if you're not currently signed up for PI, you can do that over at phantomisland.show!
Reposted by parker fleming
Godfrey-less Week continues on Phantom Island (for paid subscribers!): @espnbillc.bsky.social and @statsowar.bsky.social join me to discuss Strength of Schedule as the ultimate GRR THIS TEAM IS COWARDS metric. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/n...
Numbers & Words: How to Talk about Strength of Schedule with Bill Connelly and Parker Fleming (PREVIEW)
Podcast Episode · Phantom Island · 10/31/2025 · 6m
podcasts.apple.com
October 31, 2025 at 4:56 PM
Godfrey-less Week continues on Phantom Island (for paid subscribers!): @espnbillc.bsky.social and @statsowar.bsky.social join me to discuss Strength of Schedule as the ultimate GRR THIS TEAM IS COWARDS metric. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/n...
Big 12 situational offensive efficiency 2025
October 27, 2025 at 11:13 PM
Big 12 situational offensive efficiency 2025
Reposted by parker fleming
Reposted by parker fleming
📊🏈College Football's Most Efficient Teams
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 9
🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️: We're trying our best!
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 9
🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️: We're trying our best!
October 27, 2025 at 2:59 PM
📊🏈College Football's Most Efficient Teams
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 9
🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️: We're trying our best!
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 9
🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️: We're trying our best!
Reposted by parker fleming
🏈📊WEEK 10 ADVANCED STATS PREVIEWS
CINCINNATI @ UTAH
USC @ NEBRASKA
OKLAHOMA @ TENNESSEE
MIAMI @ SMU
see the full slate at cfb-graphs.com!
CINCINNATI @ UTAH
USC @ NEBRASKA
OKLAHOMA @ TENNESSEE
MIAMI @ SMU
see the full slate at cfb-graphs.com!
October 27, 2025 at 4:55 PM
🏈📊WEEK 10 ADVANCED STATS PREVIEWS
CINCINNATI @ UTAH
USC @ NEBRASKA
OKLAHOMA @ TENNESSEE
MIAMI @ SMU
see the full slate at cfb-graphs.com!
CINCINNATI @ UTAH
USC @ NEBRASKA
OKLAHOMA @ TENNESSEE
MIAMI @ SMU
see the full slate at cfb-graphs.com!
🏈📊WEEK 10 ADVANCED STATS PREVIEWS
CINCINNATI @ UTAH
USC @ NEBRASKA
OKLAHOMA @ TENNESSEE
MIAMI @ SMU
see the full slate at cfb-graphs.com!
CINCINNATI @ UTAH
USC @ NEBRASKA
OKLAHOMA @ TENNESSEE
MIAMI @ SMU
see the full slate at cfb-graphs.com!
October 27, 2025 at 4:55 PM
🏈📊WEEK 10 ADVANCED STATS PREVIEWS
CINCINNATI @ UTAH
USC @ NEBRASKA
OKLAHOMA @ TENNESSEE
MIAMI @ SMU
see the full slate at cfb-graphs.com!
CINCINNATI @ UTAH
USC @ NEBRASKA
OKLAHOMA @ TENNESSEE
MIAMI @ SMU
see the full slate at cfb-graphs.com!
📊🏈College Football's Most Efficient Teams
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 9
🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️: We're trying our best!
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 9
🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️: We're trying our best!
October 27, 2025 at 2:59 PM
📊🏈College Football's Most Efficient Teams
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 9
🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️: We're trying our best!
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 9
🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️: We're trying our best!