Bill Connelly
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espnbillc.bsky.social
Bill Connelly
@espnbillc.bsky.social
ESPN writer, professional nerd. SP+. Author of three books (Study Hall, 50 Best* and Forward Progress). College football, soccer, tennis. Puma addiction.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1BKvo23DyGppxvRifqFgwkUoflPLQX5wabjUDIV4qUZA/edit?usp=sharing
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Hello, friends. It's FORWARD PROGRESS DAY.

"A cinematic celebration of college football’s exploding influence and a rigorous look at how and why the sport may look totally new once again," according to whoever wrote the summary blurb on Amazon.

www.amazon.com/Forward-Prog...
Forward Progress: The Definitive Guide to the Future of College Football
Amazon.com: Forward Progress: The Definitive Guide to the Future of College Football: 9781637278703: Connelly, Bill: Books
www.amazon.com
COLLEGE FOOTBALL SP+ TOP 766, WEEK 14

UMass -0.5 Friends (NAIA) 😳😬
Lehigh -2.5 Purdue
Harding: 9th in the MAC
North Central: 8th in the MVFC
Michigan -120.5 Madonna (Mich.)

Full list: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
November 25, 2025 at 2:30 PM
No moment of home ownership greater than starting the fireplace for the first time all year and then learning just how many stinkbugs were living up in there. The smell will go away in, I'm guessing, 3 to 6 months. Maybe sooner if we just leave the windows open at all times.
November 24, 2025 at 11:04 PM
Reposted by Bill Connelly
* A committee nightmare on the horizon
* Whole bunch of intricate tiebreakers forthcoming
* Whole bunch of 5-6 teams looking for one more win
* SP+ movers! Pavia for Heisman (it's not too late)! HOLY CRAP, BENEDICT

WEEK 13 RECAP (AND WEEK 14 LOOKAHEAD): www.espn.com/college-foot...
Where the most chaos could be lurking on Rivalry Week
With so many postseason questions, college football's best weekend promises to be better than ever.
www.espn.com
November 23, 2025 at 11:29 PM
WEEK 14 SP+ PICKS

Rebs 37, #Clanga 22
UGA 36, GT 23
Indiana 43, Purdue 9
A&M 30, Texas 25
Miami 30, Pitt 24
Ohio St 31, Mich 17
OU 27, LSU 16
Oregon 29, UW 23
Vols 32, Vandy 31
FSU 28, Florida 21
Bama 27, Auburn 21
Irish 42, Stanford 10

Some strange lines in here.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
November 24, 2025 at 12:30 AM
* A committee nightmare on the horizon
* Whole bunch of intricate tiebreakers forthcoming
* Whole bunch of 5-6 teams looking for one more win
* SP+ movers! Pavia for Heisman (it's not too late)! HOLY CRAP, BENEDICT

WEEK 13 RECAP (AND WEEK 14 LOOKAHEAD): www.espn.com/college-foot...
Where the most chaos could be lurking on Rivalry Week
With so many postseason questions, college football's best weekend promises to be better than ever.
www.espn.com
November 23, 2025 at 11:29 PM
Here are this week's BCSish formula results (polls + SOR/Résumé SP+, basically), plus my guess re: how the committee will rank everyone. Utah is interesting after the near-upset, and I'm just gonna assume they keep screwing JMU and UNT until proven otherwise.
November 23, 2025 at 8:04 PM
SP+ is updated! North Texas and Vandy rise, while Syracuse, Florida and UCLA (very, very predictably) plummet. I said we were teetering between order and chaos in last week's preview, and the universe evidently chose order. For the most part.

www.espn.com/college-foot...
Updated SP+ rankings for all 136 FBS teams
The latest SP+ rankings, plus strength of schedule and résumé SP+, following this weekend's results.
www.espn.com
November 23, 2025 at 4:22 PM
LOWEST POSTGAME WIN EXPECTANCY IN A WIN, WEEK 13

App St > Marshall 13.9%
Kenn St > Missouri St 20.4%
Duke > UNC 22.2%
Utah > K-State 24.9%
LT > Liberty 25.1%
FIU > Jax St 44.8%
NMSU > UTEP 50.1%

Full list: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
2025 SP+
docs.google.com
November 23, 2025 at 2:36 PM
Reposted by Bill Connelly
* Can USC stop the Oregon run?
* Turnovers are everything in Norman
* The next 2-3 weeks could be amazing/atrocious for Ga Tech
* Which borderline contender falls?
* Which G5 favorite falls?
* Chaos superfecta! Playlist! BEST FCS RIVALRY WEEK EVER!

WEEK 13 PREVIEW: www.espn.com/college-foot...
36 games you need to follow during a hectic Week 13
A Big Ten showdown in the West, playoff hopefuls trying hang on and the potential to clear things up in the ACC.
www.espn.com
November 21, 2025 at 1:02 PM
* Can USC stop the Oregon run?
* Turnovers are everything in Norman
* The next 2-3 weeks could be amazing/atrocious for Ga Tech
* Which borderline contender falls?
* Which G5 favorite falls?
* Chaos superfecta! Playlist! BEST FCS RIVALRY WEEK EVER!

WEEK 13 PREVIEW: www.espn.com/college-foot...
36 games you need to follow during a hectic Week 13
A Big Ten showdown in the West, playoff hopefuls trying hang on and the potential to clear things up in the ACC.
www.espn.com
November 21, 2025 at 1:02 PM
Liverpool, Barca, Newcastle, Juventus ... I put on my doctor hat and DIAGNOSED some disappointing teams.

("xG turned on them, and they stink at set pieces now": a rather common diagnosis!)

www.espn.com/soccer/story...
Fixing what's wrong with Liverpool, Barcelona, Juventus, more
We've all read the narratives around teams like Liverpool and Barcelona, who have clear issues. But what do the stats say? And what's actually going wrong? Let's look at some clubs with notable worrie...
www.espn.com
November 20, 2025 at 1:27 PM
Reposted by Bill Connelly
Darnell Washington revealed his actual weight today on a podcast
November 20, 2025 at 1:59 AM
Haven't shared my BCS-ish formula results (SOR + Résumé SP+ + AP poll, basically) as much this season because I've been enjoying my Playoff Tiers approach, with an eye to the finish line, in weekly columns. But here they are for this week.

(Miami: pretty damn properly rated. Oregon: disrespected.)
November 19, 2025 at 6:43 PM
Oh we're performing Johnny Vaught erasure now???
Lane Kiffin: "I love it here. It's been amazing and we're in the greatest run in the history of Ole Miss at this point... I'm just living in the moment."
November 19, 2025 at 6:17 PM
Really good piece about the "sign up for a terrible-interest credit card, and get this free T-shirt!" of college athletics. I hope a lot of people are privately very embarrassed by this.
November 19, 2025 at 1:42 PM
I don’t know how to react to this, #USMNT
November 19, 2025 at 12:40 AM
One of the better calls and crowd pops I’ve heard in a while. Glorious last few minutes.
Scotland [4] - 2 Denmark - K. McLean 90+8'

It's done! No Playoff! Straight through! And WHAT A GOAL TO FINISH IT OFF!!!!
November 18, 2025 at 10:01 PM
COLLEGE FOOTBALL SP+ TOP 766, WEEK 13

* Ohio State -153 Oberlin
* Harding PK Okla St
* UTRGV (new program) -2 ULM 😬
* SWOSU was 527th nine weeks ago and finishes at 313! 🥹🥹
* With a 35-0 loss to No. 649, Oberlin narrowly holds onto the 766 spot over Maine Maritime!

docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
November 18, 2025 at 12:17 PM
❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️
Just finished Forward Progress by @espnbillc.bsky.social Magnificent read and gave a simple British fan an amazing insight into where he sees the future of the game. I've been following CFB for the last 13 years and don't think anyone captures the nature of college football like he does.
November 17, 2025 at 9:20 PM
Reposted by Bill Connelly
Week 12 ruled. I looked back at my favorite games, from Marcel Reed's best/worst game, to OU in T-Town, to epic Tuesday MACtion, to GT saving itself, to the SECRETARIES' CUP, to wild smaller-school finishes.

Also: SP+ movers and Hardy for Heisman!

WEEK 12 RECAP: www.espn.com/college-foot...
Connelly's 25 favorite games: How they went down and what they mean
From A&M's historic comeback to heart-stoppers at all levels, Week 12 was packed with games to remember.
www.espn.com
November 17, 2025 at 12:22 AM
Week 12 ruled. I looked back at my favorite games, from Marcel Reed's best/worst game, to OU in T-Town, to epic Tuesday MACtion, to GT saving itself, to the SECRETARIES' CUP, to wild smaller-school finishes.

Also: SP+ movers and Hardy for Heisman!

WEEK 12 RECAP: www.espn.com/college-foot...
Connelly's 25 favorite games: How they went down and what they mean
From A&M's historic comeback to heart-stoppers at all levels, Week 12 was packed with games to remember.
www.espn.com
November 17, 2025 at 12:22 AM
WEEK 13 SP+ PICKS

Oregon 33, USC 23
OU 27, Mizzou 22
Horns 33, Hogs 23
BYU 29, Cincy 25
Duke 29, UNC 23
SMU 28, Louisville 25
Vols 33, Gators 23
Cal 28, Stanford 21
Irish 44, Orange 11
A&M 75, Samford 0 😳

A 33-23 kind of week, apparently. FULL LIST: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
November 16, 2025 at 11:18 PM
Reposted by Bill Connelly
You know a game was stupid when the winning team dropped three spots in S&P and fell behind the team they beat (on the road)
November 16, 2025 at 4:22 PM
SP+ is updated! Texas Tech's back up to 3rd, Georgia's rising, only a TD separates No. 5 from No. 21, and ... yuck, NC State/UCF/Purdue/La Tech.

www.espn.com/college-foot...
Updated SP+ rankings for all 136 FBS teams
The latest SP+ rankings, plus strength of schedule and résumé SP+, following this weekend's results.
www.espn.com
November 16, 2025 at 4:17 PM
LOWEST POSTGAME WIN EXPECTANCY IN A WIN, WEEK 12:

OU > Bama 4.8%
Clemson > Louisville 13.4%
UNLV > USU 15.8%
SHSU > Delaware 31.3%
LSU > Hogs 36.0%
Navy > USF 36.8%
USC > Iowa 44.6%
K-State > OSU 47.2%
SDSU > Boise 47.8%

Another funky week! We like funk!

Full list: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
2025 SP+
docs.google.com
November 16, 2025 at 1:35 PM