stefanforss46.bsky.social
@stefanforss46.bsky.social
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Chatham House experts and researchers are available to follow on Bluesky.

Connect with our experts here and follow them for their analysis on key international events and major global trends.

⬇️
go.bsky.app/UKHXrogp
January 15, 2026 at 7:30 AM
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He changed sides again. Trump tells Reuters that Zelensky, not Putin, is holding up a Ukraine peace deal. He claims Putin is ready to end the war, while Kyiv is “having a hard time getting there.” Talks reportedly focus on Ukraine giving up Donbas.
January 15, 2026 at 8:00 AM
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President Trump has said that the U.S. must take control of Greenland, but how could the Arctic island, which is part of Denmark, change hands?
How Could the U.S. Acquire Greenland from Denmark?
The options include money, political pressure and a military operation. All of them are complex and risky.
on.wsj.com
January 7, 2026 at 7:29 PM
Donald Trump, Ukraine, and European Security: A Second Munich delphiglobal.org/research/don...
delphiglobal.org
January 7, 2026 at 7:48 PM
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On 29 December, just as the summit between Zelenskyy and Trump was finishing at Mar-a-lago, the PLA Eastern Theatre Command announced that it had commenced exercise "Justice Mission 2025" in the Taiwan Strait. I have just published an assessment of the exercise. mickryan.substack.com/p/justice-mi...
Justice Mission 2025 is a Golden Opportunity to Learn about PLA Joint Planning and Capabilities
A special assessment of China's Exercise Justice Mission 2025, what China designed it to achieve, and how we can learn from it.
mickryan.substack.com
December 31, 2025 at 7:14 AM
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❗️The Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sybiha stated that Russia has still not provided any evidence for the alleged attack on Putin's residence.

"Almost a day has passed, and Russia still has not provided any plausible evidence for its accusations.
December 30, 2025 at 12:47 PM
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❗️Republican Congressman Don Bacon criticized Trump for his position on Ukraine and stated that history will remember him "as Chamberlain, not as Churchill."
December 30, 2025 at 10:50 AM
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Trump: "Russia wants to see Ukraine succeed. It sounds a little strange but President Putin was very generous in his feeling toward Ukraine succeeding”

WTF
December 28, 2025 at 11:38 PM
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According the Trump, "we made a lot of progress on ending that war." My quick assessment of the just completed Mar-a-Lago summit between President's Zelenskyy and Trump. I also examine Putin’s strategic calculus in the wake of the latest peace summit.
mickryan.substack.com/p/the-mar-a-...
The Mar-A-Lago Summit: Quick Assessment
According the Trump, "we made a lot of progress on ending that war." But war is a complex human endeavour which generally resists quick, simple solutions. We need to keep expectations realistic.
mickryan.substack.com
December 28, 2025 at 11:58 PM
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❗️Dear friends, previously your support allowed us to gain many fresh BlueSky subscribers.Currently, observing a massive departure from X, it's crucial that those users can easily locate us on BlueSky for vital news regarding Ukraine.

Could you please repost this note, ideally as a quote? Thank you!
December 27, 2025 at 10:27 AM
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Russian Z bloggers are now openly turning on each other over the Kupyansk failure. Kupyansk has become a blame game, with figures like Romanov accusing Kremlin friendly bloggers, including Kots, of covering up false reports and shifting blame from commanders to propaganda channels.
December 25, 2025 at 9:55 PM
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❗️An AfD deputy from Thuringia, Ringo Müllmann, is suspected of collecting data useful to Russian intelligence through numerous parliamentary inquiries about the transit of Western weapons to Ukraine and police drone countermeasures systems in the state.
December 23, 2025 at 2:46 PM
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🇺🇦🇦🇺 Abrams in Pokrovsk. The 425th Regiment "Skelya" broke into Pokrovsk on Abrams M1A1 tanks, which Australia transferred to Ukraine.

Tanks were modified and equipped with anti-drone protection, so they showed themselves very well, breaking through to the western part of city.
December 23, 2025 at 2:52 PM
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2/and depleted reserves.

According to him, a substantial blow has also been dealt by US sanctions against the companies "Lukoil" and "Rosneft".

Additionally, in Stubb's assessment, Russia has not achieved strategic successes on the front lines.
December 22, 2025 at 9:58 AM
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❗️In a thousand days, Russia has captured less than 1% of Ukraine's territory, so it is not achieving its strategic military goals, — Stubb

The President of Finland stated that the Russian economy is currently facing significant difficulties — it is not growing, has high inflation,
December 22, 2025 at 9:58 AM
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❗️"It's unlikely that Russia has changed its main goal — to destroy Ukraine, but that's exactly what we are trying to prevent," — Stubb

President of Finland Alexander Stubb recalled that during World War II, Finland lost part of its territories and sovereignty but preserved its independence.
December 22, 2025 at 10:01 AM
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The Russian president has pressed on with the war effort — a decision that western officials believe has been influenced by flawed information reaching the Kremlin. ft.trib.al/lCUyRZc
December 22, 2025 at 5:10 AM
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🇺🇦 Syrskyi took part in the 32nd meeting of "Ramstein":

🔹Russia has concentrated about 710 thousand troops.
🔹Defense forces have pushed the enemy away from Kupyansk and control almost 90% of the city
December 17, 2025 at 9:49 AM
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Moscow pounded Ukrainian power infrastructure with drone and missile strikes and Kyiv launched a deadly strike of its own on southwestern Russia, a day before talks involving senior European and U.S. officials aimed at ending the war were set to resume.
Russia and Ukraine trade attacks as US and European officials prepare for peace talks
www.stripes.com
December 13, 2025 at 11:43 PM
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I have just published my regular update on war and strategic competition. This week: Putin's Kupiansk lie, Ukrainian forces advance, the Chinese carrier strike group off Japan, as well as my Big Five recommended readings.

mickryan.substack.com/p/my-zelensk...
My Zelenskyy Goes to Kupiansk. Putin Huddles in Moscow. Chinese Carrier Off Japan. The Big Five, 14 December edition.
My regular update on war and strategic competition. This week: Putin's Kupiansk lie, Ukrainian forces advance, the Chinese carrier strike group off Japan, as well as my Big Five recommended readings.
mickryan.substack.com
December 14, 2025 at 3:53 AM
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❗️Putin a month ago claimed that Russian troops had captured the city of Kupyansk.

Zelenskyy today:
December 12, 2025 at 1:03 PM
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I am losing oil platforms in a land war to a country without a navy in a sea they don't even border.

I remain a master strategist.
Russian channels report that drones disabled the "Lukoil-Nizhnevolzhskneft" platform on the northern Caspian Sea shelf.
December 12, 2025 at 4:33 PM
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🇫🇷🇮🇹 France and Italy can breathe a sigh of relief after the EU's statistics office signaled that the financial guarantees needed to back a €210 billion financing package to Ukraine won't increase their heavy debt burdens.
December 10, 2025 at 3:40 PM