Stephen Wolf
@stephenwolf.bsky.social
110K followers 260 following 1.8K posts
Contributor @the-downballot.com. Democracy, voting rights, redistricting, and maps.
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stephenwolf.bsky.social
Thread: Republicans won the Senate in 2024 despite Democrats winning more votes & representing more people nationwide.

Republicans last won more support than Democrats in the 1990s but won the Senate anyway in 7 of 13 elections since 2000.

Data & charts below: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
A chart of the U.S. Senate popular vote and the population represented by each party from 1990 to 2024. Republicans have won the Senate in 7 of the last 13 elections starting with the year 2000 despite continually winning fewer collective votes and representing fewer Americans than Democrats.
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
ryanlcooper.com
if blue state governors and mayors aren't already thinking about the reliability of various police forces nominally under their control, they should start immediately
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
hansilowang.bsky.social
NEW: The U.S. Supreme Court is set to discuss on Nov. 7 whether to take up a North Dakota case about whether private individuals and groups — whose lawsuits have been the main way of enforcing the Voting Rights Act’s Section 2 — can continue to sue
www.supremecourt.gov/search.aspx?...
DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 11/7/2025.
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
garnethenderson.com
This is absurd. What the amendment would actually do is ban abortion and youth gender-affirming care. Are you getting that… at all from this ballot language? missouriindependent.com/2025/10/07/m...
“Shall the Missouri Constitution be amended to:

Guarantee women’s medical care for emergencies, ectopic pregnancies, and miscarriages; 
Ensure women’s safety during abortions; 
Ensure parental consent for minors; 
Repeal Article I, section 36, approved in 2024; allow abortions for medical emergencies, fetal anomalies, rape, and incest;
and Prohibit sex-change procedures for children?”
stephenwolf.bsky.social
This is one of the best attempts at mapping this that I’ve seen so far
williamhazen.bsky.social
This is the most accurate depiction of the Midwest to date. Wichita has always felt like the last Midwest city while also being the first plains city.
Cultural Regions of the US
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
jenrice.bsky.social
NEW: today in court, the TX congressional map-maker said he
-was hired by the RNC, not TX
-reviewed the DOJ letter (urging TX to eliminate some minority districts) before it was sent
-communicated w/the white house using signal messages that autodeleted

www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/...
RNC-Hired Mapmaker Denies Using Racial Data in Texas Gerrymander, Sparks Debate
Read more here.
www.democracydocket.com
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
punchbowlnews.bsky.social
California Republicans have significantly scaled back their TV advertising against Proposition 50 amid increasing pessimism among the GOP that they’ll be able to defeat Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom’s redistricting ballot measure.
punchbowl.news/article/camp...
GOP fears mount in California redistricting fight
California Republicans have significantly scaled back their TV advertising against Proposition 50 amid increasing pessimism among the GOP.
punchbowl.news
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
kjephd.bsky.social
Tariff revenue is operating like ship money did for Charles I, when he tried to rule England without Parliament. Like the US, only the legislature could legitimately tax the people, but Charles used innovative abuses of his powers to raise & spend money as he wanted

(He later lost his crown & head)
carlquintanilla.bsky.social
“.. there is the question of how the bond market will react to tariff revenue being redirected away from lowering the deficit.”

@barrons.com
www.barrons.com/articles/tru...
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
stephenwolf.bsky.social
The Utah GOP's new map still has 4 Trump seats, but he won the bluest ones by just 2 & 7 points
davesredistricting.org/join/769040a...

The plaintiff maps are 3R-1D. Harris won the blue seat by 24 in Map 1 & by 14 in Map 2
davesredistricting.org/join/cf1048c...
davesredistricting.org/join/6c3bcab...
stephenwolf.bsky.social
The Utah GOP's proposed gerrymander looks stronger for them if you assume Republicans would continue to outrun Trump further downballot as they have in recent years.

If that's the case, they'd have a good chance to win 3-4 seats, while either plaintiff map would likely elect one Democrat regardless
stephenwolf.bsky.social
The Utah GOP's new map still has 4 Trump seats, but he won the bluest ones by just 2 & 7 points
davesredistricting.org/join/769040a...

The plaintiff maps are 3R-1D. Harris won the blue seat by 24 in Map 1 & by 14 in Map 2
davesredistricting.org/join/cf1048c...
davesredistricting.org/join/6c3bcab...
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
mcbridetd.bsky.social
What Americans Die from?

And what the media reports on...

Our World in Data ourworldindata.org/does-the-new...
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
darinself.com
I know we're all focused on the actions of a unbridled executive...but another major danger right now is that the Speaker of the House is refusing to sit a duly elected representative.
the-downballot.com
Updating this chart because the prior version is out of date. With Mike Johnson refusing to convene the House, the soonest Democrat Adelita Grijalva can get sworn in—and provide the 218th signature to force a vote on the Epstein files—is now three weeks after winning the #AZ07 special election.
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
the-downballot.com
As @schotthappens.com previously detailed, "Map C" would create two districts in the Salt Lake County area that Trump won narrowly. It may not pass muster with the courts, but if it does, Dems could conceivably flip both. www.utahpoliticalwatch.news/two-competit...
stephenwolf.bsky.social
Mostly TV ads. Some have already started airing more than a year out
stephenwolf.bsky.social
Unlimited election spending is not freedom of speech
Image of Norman Rockwell’s “Freedom of Speech” painting.
stephenwolf.bsky.social
One U.S. Senate election in 2026 could see more campaign spending than several major democracies spend on their elections combined:

“[North Carolina] is expected to be the most expensive Senate race in history. Operatives in both parties estimate spending to reach $650 million to $800 million.”
Roy Cooper raises $14.5 million last quarter, shattering records
The former North Carolina governor brought in more than double what his likely GOP opponent raised.
www.politico.com
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
adamserwer.bsky.social
John Roberts’ Constitution: The federal government protecting people’s right to vote or giving them health care violates the sacred principle of state sovereignty but if the deranged POTUS and his bloodthirsty advisers want to use the military to invade other states for being too liberal that’s fine
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
smsaideman.bsky.social
I have been talking about US autocracy but @dhnexon.bsky.social lays it out more clearly-- the American system has failed. The checks and balances didn't work, so we will need a new constitution and new institutions once the regime is eventually toppled www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2025/10/the-...
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
victorerikray.bsky.social
The media trots out the "deplorable" comment from a decade ago to castigate the left. Once a week now Trump implies that the military should destroy democrats, and it is just how things are.
atrupar.com
Trump to the Navy: "We have to take care of this little gnat that's on our shoulder called the Democrats."
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
dhnexon.bsky.social
🧵 Fascism is an ideology. The government is fascist. But it's an unconsolidated competitive authoritarian regime, not a totalitarian one.

@justinscasey.bsky.social and I discuss this, and the heterogeneity of interwar fascism, here 👇