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stephenwolf.bsky.social
Stephen Wolf
@stephenwolf.bsky.social
120K followers 260 following 2.2K posts
Contributor @the-downballot.com.
Democracy, voting rights, redistricting, and maps.
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stephenwolf.bsky.social
If Virginia voters approve this amendment this spring, Democrats could redraw the congressional map in response to mid-decade Republican gerrymanders elsewhere.

Here’s an example of how Democrats could target 4 GOP seats to gain a 10-1 majority in November davesredistricting.org/join/5429402...
Image of a hypothetical Virginia congressional map that is drawn to elect a ten-to-one Democratic majority and flip four Republican seats in 2026. Nine of the districts are securely Democratic and shaded solid blue, one of the districts is overwhelmingly Republican and shaded dark red, and one district is narrowly Democratic-leaning and shaded light blue. An embedded chart shows the results of the 2024 presidential election in each district, with Kamala Harris winning nine districts by double-digit margins and the swing district by 3 percentage points. Republicans votes are wasted by being packed into a single district in western Virginia that Donald Trump won in a 55-point landslide. Black voters would retain their current ability to elect their chosen candidates in the safely Democratic 3rd and 4th districts in the Hampton Roads, Richmond, and Southside regions. Image of a hypothetical Virginia congressional map that is drawn to elect a ten-to-one Democratic majority and flip four Republican seats in 2026. Each district has a unique color and number label, the borders of counties are illustrated, and an underlying map shows roads and city names.
January 16, 2026 at 6:13 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
Virginia’s state Senate president pro tem signals Democrats may unveil their new congressional map before voters weigh in on amending VA’s constitution this spring to allow legislation to redistrict.

Lucas has repeatedly pushed for a 10-1 map instead of just 9-2. Dems currently have a 6-5 majority
Screenshot of a social media post by Brad Kutner, Richmond bureau chief for WVTF & RADIO IQ. The text says: “NEW: @SenLouiseLucas on whether #valeg voters will see #redistricting maps before they vote on con amendment: “I think they will, the main thing is it’ll go to a referendum. But I think (voters) are going to love the maps and they’re going to love the 10-1””
January 13, 2026 at 4:26 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
This is the chart I usually think of, though it's somewhat dated (the data ends over a decade ago, but the trend hasn't reversed). There are a lot of nuances to this, but it broadly aligns with trends in support for civil rights legacy.voteview.com/political_po...
A time series chart of DW-NOMINATE scores for the major parties in the U.S. House from 1879 through 2014. The chart plots the average for Republicans against Democrats with additional lines for Southern Democrats and Northern Democrats. The distance between the party averages is very large at first and begins narrowing in the first few decades of the 20th Century, when the difference diminishes until around the 1960s. Starting in the late 1970s, the Republican average begins veering sharply to the right toward ever-increasing extremes while the Southern and Northern Democratic averages converge and the national Democratic average moves slightly leftward.
January 12, 2026 at 8:54 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
This chart compares my 5 proposed Maryland congressional maps with the enacted 2022 map.

My maps split fewer cities, unincorporated communities, and precincts, and they are more compact on average. Each map has 3 districts where Black voters would have the ability to elect their chosen candidates
Data table comparing Stephen Wolf's five proposed Maryland congressional map with the enacted 2022 map. The categories include population deviation; splits to counties, cities, unincorporated communities, and precincts; compactness; and the number of majority-Black districts. Wolf's proposed maps outperform the 2022 map on nearly every metric.
January 12, 2026 at 5:38 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
NEW: Maryland's advisory redistricting commission heard public testimony on Friday, and many speakers supported a congressional map I drew. Based on this, I've submitted two revised maps.

Interactive maps with data:
B2 davesredistricting.org/join/70508b0...
C2 davesredistricting.org/join/e1a44e3...
Image of Stephen Wolf's proposed Maryland congressional map "B2" that shows how the district lines relate to the borders of counties, cities, and census-designated places. Each district has a unique color and is labeled with its district number. The graphic also includes two charts showing the racial demographics of each district, denoting that three of the eight districts are majority-Black. It additionally lists how many counties, cities, census-designated places, and precincts the map splits. Image of Stephen Wolf's proposed Maryland congressional map "C2" that shows how the district lines relate to the borders of counties, cities, and census-designated places. Each district has a unique color and is labeled with its district number. The graphic also includes two charts showing the racial demographics of each district, denoting that three of the eight districts are majority-Black. It additionally lists how many counties, cities, census-designated places, and precincts the map splits. Image of the Baltimore region in Stephen Wolf's proposed Maryland congressional map "B2" that shows how the district lines relate to the borders of counties, cities, and census-designated places. Each district has a unique color and is labeled with its district number. In this version, Baltimore is split between Districts 2 and 7. District 7 is majority-Black and includes most of Baltimore along with suburbs to the south and west. District 2 includes part of the city and suburbs to the north and east. Image of the Baltimore region in Stephen Wolf's proposed Maryland congressional map "C2" that shows how the district lines relate to the borders of counties, cities, and census-designated places. Each district has a unique color and is labeled with its district number. In this version, Baltimore is located entirely in District 7, a mostly Black district that also includes suburbs to the south. District 2 includes suburbs to the west, north, and east of Baltimore, while District 3 includes suburbs southwest of the city.
January 12, 2026 at 5:38 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
There's little downside for Virginia Dems going for 10-1 over 9-2.

On my 10-1 map below, Kamala Harris & Jay Jones won 9 seats by ≥10 points, & McAullife won all 9 in 2021. The swing seat was Harris+3.

On my 9-2 map, 1 of those blue seats becomes safe red, but the swing seat becomes just Harris+4
Image of a hypothetical Virginia congressional map that is gerrymandered to elect a ten-to-one Democratic majority and flip four Republican seats in 2026. Nine of the districts are securely Democratic and shaded solid blue, one of the districts is overwhelmingly Republican and shaded dark red, and one district is narrowly Democratic-leaning and shaded light blue. An embedded chart shows the results of the 2024 presidential election in each district, with Kamala Harris winning nine districts by double-digit margins and the swing district by 3 percentage points. Republicans votes are wasted by being packed into a single district in western Virginia that Donald Trump won in a 55-point landslide. Black voters would retain their current ability to elect their chosen candidates in the safely Democratic 3rd and 4th districts in the Hampton Roads, Richmond, and Southside regions. Image of a hypothetical Virginia congressional map that is gerrymandered to elect a nine-to-two Democratic majority and flip three Republican seats in 2026. Eight of the districts are securely Democratic and shaded solid blue, two of the districts are overwhelmingly Republican and shaded dark red, and one district is narrowly Democratic-leaning and shaded light blue. An embedded chart shows the results of the 2024 presidential election in each district, with Kamala Harris winning eight districts by double-digit margins and the swing district by 4 percentage points. Republicans votes are wasted by being packed into two districts in western Virginia that Donald Trump won by landslide margins. Black voters would retain their current ability to elect their chosen candidates in the safely Democratic 3rd and 4th districts in the Hampton Roads, Richmond, and Southside regions.
January 9, 2026 at 10:12 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
Maryland is considering redrawing its congressional map in response to other states' remaps & asked for proposals, so I submitted these 3 maps.

Interactive maps with data:
A: davesredistricting.org/join/1b9246f...

B: davesredistricting.org/join/aad85b9...

C: davesredistricting.org/join/0e76b33...
Image of the author's proposed Maryland congressional map "A" that shows how the district lines relate to the borders of counties, cities, and census-designated places. Each district has a unique color and is labeled with its district number. Image of the author's proposed Maryland congressional map "B" that shows how the district lines relate to the borders of counties, cities, and census-designated places. Each district has a unique color and is labeled with its district number. Image of the author's proposed Maryland congressional map "C" that shows how the district lines relate to the borders of counties, cities, and census-designated places. Each district has a unique color and is labeled with its district number. Data table comparing the author's three proposed Maryland congressional map with the enacted 2022 map. The categories include population deviation; splits to counties, localities, and precincts; compactness; and the number of majority-Black districts. Each of the author's maps outperform the 2022 map on every or nearly every metric.
January 9, 2026 at 8:48 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
Here’s an example of how Virginia Democrats could draw a 10-1 congressional map for 2026 to respond to Republican mid-decade gerrymandering in other states davesredistricting.org/join/598f596...
Image of a hypothetical Virginia congressional map that is gerrymandered to elect a ten-to-one Democratic majority and flip four Republican seats in 2026. Nine of the districts are securely Democratic and shaded solid blue, one of the districts is overwhelmingly Republican and shaded dark red, and one district is narrowly Democratic-leaning and shaded light blue. An embedded chart shows the results of the 2024 presidential election in each district, with Kamala Harris winning nine districts by double-digit margins and the swing district by 3 percentage points. Republicans votes are wasted by being packed into a single district in western Virginia that Donald Trump won in a 55-point landslide. Black voters would retain their current ability to elect their chosen candidates in the safely Democratic 3rd and 4th districts in the Hampton Roads, Richmond, and Southside regions.
January 9, 2026 at 12:54 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
“This was likely the last Democrat in Virginia who would agree to a 10-1 map — so if he’s onboard like it appears here — then the chances are high”

From @jaaavis.bsky.social regarding state Sen. @scvanvalkenburg.bsky.social
Screenshot of a post by Virginia reporter Brandon Jarvis: “This was likely the last Democrat in Virginia who would agree to a 10-1 map — so if he’s onboard like it appears here — then the chances are high” The post is quoting a post by state Sen. Schuyler VanValkenburg in the next image. Screenshot of a post by Virginia state Sen. Schuyler VanValkenburg: “If democracy is in danger from Trump’s attempts to mid-decade redraw in Texas, Miss and NC then we must act accordingly. In Jan, I’m not voting to send redistricting to voters just to reinforce the status quo. We can get 8-3 w/ the current maps. 10-1. Right @SenLouiseLucas?” The post is quoting a reporter’s post about Hakeem Jeffries meeting with Virginia House Democrats to discuss redistricting.
January 9, 2026 at 12:46 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
Donald Trump is not the lawful president, having been disqualified under the constitution for inciting an insurrection to overturn his election defeat.

We can’t have a democracy if those who try to overthrow it are allowed to obtain power again without consequences
Fourteenth Amendment Equal Protection and Other Rights Section 3 Disqualification from Holding Office No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.
January 6, 2026 at 2:52 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
No way lol. This is somehow real x.com/Sen_ChrisGar...
Screenshot of an X.com post by Republican Indiana state Senator Chris Garten at 3:38am on Christmas morning. The post includes four AI-generated photos of Garten wearing a sleeveless black suit and red tie while he’s beating up Santa Clause like he’s a WWE wrestler in front of a crowd of campaign supporters at what looks like a state capitol building. Garten’s text reads: “When you find out the North Pole is trying to bring more bureaucratic overreach & unfunded mandates down the chimney disguised as "Christmas cheer." Not on my watch. We The People run Indiana, not the bureaucrats. Take it back to the North Pole big guy. Merry Christmas, Hoosiers! 🇺🇸🎅🏻🥊” Screenshot of a Bluesky post from Stephen Wolf on December 13 that says: “I'm watching the Indiana Senate debate the GOP's new congressional gerrymander, & one of the Republicans defending it just went all "I ORDERED THE CODE RED." State Sen. Chris Garten was speaking about whether the new map was political and then shouted "YOU'RE DAMN RIGHT"”
December 25, 2025 at 7:39 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
Republican congressmen who opposed Democratic bills to ban gerrymandering nationwide keep complaining about it only now that Democrats in their state may target them with new maps in response to Republicans in Texas, etc.
punchbowl.news/article/hous...
Image of a tweet from Punchbowl News reporter Ally Mutnick. The text says: “Some VA news: Rep Rob Wittman (R) confronted Gov-elect Abigail Spanberger over redistricting at a meeting Tues in DC Wittman read Spanberger her past comments backing an independent commission & asked if she still agreed Spanberger said its up to voters”
December 17, 2025 at 6:51 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
Despite this win, Indiana's current 7-2 map (right) is still a GOP gerrymander that splits apart Indianapolis' suburbs.

Without gerrymandering, Dems could have won 3 of 9 seats. My map (left) has has 1 light blue seat entirely within the Indy suburbs.

My map: davesredistricting.org/join/7e6d93c...
Image of a hypothetical nonpartisan Indiana congressional map. The districts are shaded by the 2024 presidential winner's margin with Kamala Harris in blue and Donald Trump in red. An accompanying chart displays those election results for each district. The map has one solidly blue district wholly within Indianapolis, a light blue district in the city’s northern and western suburbs, and another light blue district in northwestern Indiana along the coast of Lake Michigan. The other six districts are all dark red, and the map would likely elect a 6-3 Republican majority. The map was based on one drawn by Andrew Ellison. Image of Indiana's current congressional map, which Republicans gerrymandered after 2020 to elect a 7-to-2 majority. The districts are shaded by the 2024 presidential winner's margin with Donald Trump in red and Kamala Harris in blue. One district in Indianapolis is solidly blue, one district in northwestern Indiana is light blue, and the other seven districts are solid red or dark red. The Indianapolis suburbs are divided among three separate districts that each combine the suburbs with rural areas to prevent Democrats from winning a third seat statewide.
December 11, 2025 at 9:35 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
BREAKING: Indiana Republicans FAILED to pass a new 9-0 congressional gerrymander after enough GOP senators sided with Dems. The GOP's 7-2 map stays in place.

Trump is trying to re-gerrymander maps nationwide. At least 11 Indiana Rs got death threats after he called for primaries—but it still failed
Image of Indiana Republicans’ attempted new congressional gerrymander that was designed to turn their currently gerrymandered 7-to-2 majority into a 9-to-0 majority. An accompanying chart displays the 2024 presidential results for each district. Every district is a shade of medium to dark red, and five districts crack the Indianapolis metropolitan area to prevent the heavily Democratic city and its suburbs from electing a Democrat or two. Two districts also split the Democratic-leaning northwest along Lake Michigan by combining the region with rural areas further south and east.
December 11, 2025 at 9:35 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
Multiple Republicans are absurdly claiming they're just fighting back against Democratic gerrymandering.

In 2024, roughly 3 times more seats were in states drawn to favor the GOP than Dems.

The GOP in Congress & on the Supreme Court has repeatedly blocked efforts to ban gerrymandering nationwide
A cartogram showing the partisan intent behind congressional redistricting in every state, with each state’s size corresponding to how many districts it has. The graphic illustrates how Republicans gerrymandered states with 42% of districts in red, which is three times as many as the 14% of districts that Democrats gerrymandered in blue. The remaining 43% of districts are in yellow states where a court, commission, or divided legislature drew a relatively neutral map.
December 11, 2025 at 9:26 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
Theoretically, Colorado Democrats could draw a much more aggressive congressional map where Harris won 7 districts by at least 17 points, making all of them practically safe.

(I don’t expect this would happen, but it’s possible to draw.) davesredistricting.org/join/19d5282...
Image of a hypothetical Colorado congressional map that is aggressively gerrymandered to elect a 7-to-1 Democratic majority. Kamala Harris won 7 districts shaded solid blue by at least 17 percentage points in 2024. Donald Trump voters are packed into a single dark red district that covers eastern Colorado and loops around the northern and western edges of the state.
December 9, 2025 at 8:49 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
If a ballot initiative passed in 2026, Colorado Democrats could draw a new map for 2028 where they’d likely win a 7-1 majority, up from the current 4-4 split.

Kamala Harris won 6 seats on my map below by at least 11 points & the light blue district by 5 points davesredistricting.org/join/88bbe20...
Image of a hypothetical Colorado congressional map gerrymandered to elect a 7-to-1 Democratic majority. Kamala Harris won six districts shaded solid blue by at least 11 percentage points in 2024 and an additional district in light blue by 5 points. Donald Trump voters are packed into a single dark red district in eastern Colorado where he won by 30 points.
December 9, 2025 at 8:49 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
Indiana Republicans will try to pass a new congressional gerrymander this week that is designed to wipe out the remaining two Democrats next year.

Supporters of this power grab have been using terrorism to intimidate the Republican holdouts in the state Senate, where its passage is in doubt
Image of Indiana Republicans’ proposed congressional gerrymander that would turn their currently gerrymandered 7-2 majority into a 9-0 majority. Every district is a shade of medium to dark red, and five districts crack the Indianapolis metropolitan area to prevent the heavily Democratic city and its suburbs from electing a Democrat or two. Two districts also split the Democratic-leaning northwest along Lake Michigan by combining the region with rural areas further south and east.
December 8, 2025 at 1:46 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
Democrats can retaliate against these GOP gerrymanders with new maps in Illinois, Maryland, Oregon, & Virginia.

They could flip 7 GOP seats to make up for this & new GOP maps in Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, & possibly soon Indiana.

Imposing costs is the only way to deter the GOP from doing this
Map of a hypothetical Democratic gerrymander of Illinois' congressional map designed to turn the current 14-3 majority into a 15-2 majority in 2026. The districts are colored by the 2024 presidential winner's margin, with Harris in blue and Trump in red. The blue districts sprawl like pasta noodles across the northern half of the state to redistribute heavily blue parts of the Chicago area and use them to outvote heavily red rural areas. An accompanying chart shows that 15 districts would be securely blue while just two would be overwhelmingly red. The 1st, 2nd, and 7th districts would be predominantly Black, the 4th district would be majority Latino, and the 3rd district would be plurality white and 37% Latino. These racial demographics are similar in the existing versions of each of those districts. Image of a hypothetical Maryland congressional map that is gerrymandered to elect an eight-to-zero Democratic majority in 2026 and flip the Republican-held 1st District. All districts are colored varying shades of blue depending on Kamala Harris' victory margin for president in 2024, and an accompanying chart displays those results and the racial demographics. Three of the most heavily Democratic seats have majority-Black populations, an increase from two districts on the current map. Image of a hypothetical Oregon congressional map gerrymandered to elect six Democrats and eliminate the one remaining Republican seat in 2026, with every district shaded solidly blue. An embedded chart shows that Kamala Harris would have won every district by at least 10 percentage points. Harris won by at least 12 points in every Democratic-held district and by 10 points in the Republican-held 2nd District, which includes most of eastern and central Oregon along with part of eastern Portland. Image of a hypothetical Virginia congressional map that is gerrymandered to elect a ten-to-one Democratic majority and flip four Republican seats in 2026. Nine of the districts are securely Democratic and shaded solid blue, one of the districts is overwhelmingly Republican and shaded dark red, and one district is narrowly Democratic-leaning and shaded light blue. An embedded chart shows the results of the 2024 presidential election in each district, with Kamala Harris winning nine districts by double-digit margins and the swing district by 3 percentage points. Republicans votes are wasted by being packed into a single district in western Virginia that Donald Trump won in a 55-point landslide. Black voters would retain their current ability to elect their chosen candidates in the safely Democratic 3rd and 4th districts in the Hampton Roads, Richmond, and Southside regions.
December 5, 2025 at 12:12 AM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
Virginia’s House speaker has now joined the Senate president pro tem in suggesting Dems pass a 10-1 congressional map to oust 4 Republicans in 2026.

Democrats could draw a map like this with 9 safely blue seats plus 1 light-blue seat likely to flip in a wave davesredistricting.org/join/598f596...
Image of a hypothetical Virginia congressional map that is gerrymandered to elect a ten-to-one Democratic majority and flip four Republican seats in 2026. Nine of the districts are securely Democratic and shaded solid blue, one of the districts is overwhelmingly Republican and shaded dark red, and one district is narrowly Democratic-leaning and shaded light blue. An embedded chart shows the results of the 2024 presidential election in each district, with Kamala Harris winning nine districts by double-digit margins and the swing district by 3 percentage points. Republicans votes are wasted by being packed into a single district in western Virginia that Donald Trump won in a 55-point landslide. Black voters would retain their current ability to elect their chosen candidates in the safely Democratic 3rd and 4th districts in the Hampton Roads, Richmond, and Southside regions.
December 3, 2025 at 10:23 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
Indiana Republicans have unveiled their proposal to re-gerrymander the congressional map & expand their current 7-2 majority to 9-0.

The Dem-held 1st would flip to Trump+12 & the 7th to Trump+19. All 7 GOP seats would be at least Trump+18.

Interactive map:
davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap...
Image of a gerrymandered congressional map proposed by Indiana Republicans that is intended to expand their seven-to-two majority to nine-to-zero.
December 1, 2025 at 3:03 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
2/2: Whether a new map is possible by 2026 & the court's criteria are unclear, so a new map could look different.

The court required partisan fairness when ordering new 2024 legislative maps, so I did that & prioritized competitiveness, minimal county/city splits, compactness, & kept Madison whole
Image of a hypothetical Wisconsin congressional map drawn to replace the Republican-favoring gerrymander and treat each party fairly compared to their statewide level of support. The eight districts are each shaded a unique color while the county borders are shown for geographic context. The districts are relatively compact and split the minimum number of seven counties needed to attain equal population between districts.
November 26, 2025 at 6:02 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
1/2: If Wisconsin's top court replaces the GOP gerrymander in 2026, Dems might flip 2-3 of the 6 GOP seats, & the map would likely split 4-4 on average.

On my map, GOP seats 1 & 6 flip to Harris, 3 stays similar with a weak incumbent, & 8 becomes a reach seat: davesredistricting.org/join/d78e8b9...
Image of a hypothetical Wisconsin congressional map drawn to create fair and competitive districts to replace the Republican-favoring gerrymander. The districts are shaded by the 2024 presidential winner's margin with Kamala Harris in blue and Donald Trump in red. An accompanying chart displays the presidential results and racial demographics for each district. Trump and Harris each won two seats by large percentage point margins, while Harris won another two seats by margins in the low-to-mid single digits. Trump won the final two seats by high single-digits. Each party would likely win four seats in a neutral year while either party could win five-to-six seats in a very favorable election year.
November 26, 2025 at 6:02 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
Florida Politics now relays that Republicans will convene the state House’s select committee on redistricting on Dec. 4
Screenshot of a tweet from Peter Schorsch at Florida Politics. The text says “.@MyFLHouse Select Committee on Congressional Redistricting is now scheduled to meet December 4.” An attached image in the tweet shows the legislature’s schedule confirming that date. The tweet is quoting an August 7 tweet by Schorsch noting that Florida’s House speaker has heeded Trump’s call and created a redistricting select committee.
November 17, 2025 at 10:04 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
They at least could have drawn a wholly urban/suburban district that Trump won by around 27 points. But yeah, we need PR
November 11, 2025 at 3:39 PM