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stephenwolf.bsky.social
Stephen Wolf
@stephenwolf.bsky.social
120K followers 260 following 2.2K posts
Contributor @the-downballot.com.
Democracy, voting rights, redistricting, and maps.
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stephenwolf.bsky.social
Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · Nov 18
Thread: Republicans won the Senate in 2024 despite Democrats winning more votes & representing more people nationwide.

Republicans last won more support than Democrats in the 1990s but won the Senate anyway in 7 of 13 elections since 2000.

Data & charts below: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
A chart of the U.S. Senate popular vote and the population represented by each party from 1990 to 2024. Republicans have won the Senate in 7 of the last 13 elections starting with the year 2000 despite continually winning fewer collective votes and representing fewer Americans than Democrats.
stephenwolf.bsky.social
The Republican effort to gerrymander New Hampshire’s congressional map and flip a Democratic seat appears to be dead
Congressional redistricting effort in N.H. effectively dead, as sympathetic GOP lawmaker cites lack of ‘political will’ - The Boston Globe
A key Republican state lawmaker in New Hampshire came out against a mid-decade redistricting proposal Wednesday, all but guaranteeing an end to the push to redraw the state’s congressional maps ahead ...
www.bostonglobe.com
January 15, 2026 at 6:31 PM
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
atrupar.com
Trump to Reuters about the midterm elections: "When you think of it, we shouldn't even have an election." www.reuters.com/world/us/fiv...
MANAGING MIDTERM EXPECTATIONS The president expressed frustration that his Republican Party could lose control of the U.S. House of Representatives or the Senate in this year’s midterm elections, citing historical trends that have seen the party in power lose seats in the second year of a presidency. “It's some deep psychological thing, but when you win the presidency, you don't win the midterms,” Trump said. He boasted that he had accomplished so much that “when you think of it, we shouldn't even have an election.”
January 15, 2026 at 4:36 PM
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
cingraham.bsky.social
Another critical piece of missing context in this story: tax dollars flow from the MSP metro to rural Minnesota. People in the city subsidize the lifestyles of people living in the country minnesotareformer.com/2023/12/04/t...
Chart of tax balances of Greater MN and Metro area, showing money flowing from latter to former
January 15, 2026 at 3:15 PM
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
jamellebouie.net
looks like donald trump used the military to do a smash and grab for his personal benefit
pbump.com Philip Bump @pbump.com · 23h
Seizure ... by whom? If we're asserting that the money is safer in Qatar than the US, that suggests that it is being protected because Qatar has something the US lacks — presumably a lack of accountability to American courts and Congress. www.semafor.com/article/01/1...
January 15, 2026 at 4:01 AM
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
taniel.bsky.social
Virginia's legislative session only started yesterday, and it was a very big day.

The House already passed four constitutional amendments on Day 1:
—protect abortion rights
—repeal the same-sex marriage ban
—allow mid-decade redistricting
—greatly expand voting rights restoration.

Next: Senate.
January 15, 2026 at 3:00 PM
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
valentimvicente.bsky.social
Apologies for being self-referential but
Abstract of the paper "How Mainstream Politician Erode Norms": "How does anti-immigrant rhetoric by mainstream politicians affect norms of tolerance? How does this compare to similar statements made by radical-right politicians? Drawing on experimental evidence, we find that statements by mainstream politicians lead to more norm erosion than similar statements by radical-right politicians. Subsample analyses suggest that this is because statements by mainstream-right politicians erode norm perceptions of right-wing individuals, while those by radical-right politicians induce backlash among left-wing individuals, who hold closer to the norm in place. The latter effect (backlash by the left) disappears when similar statements are made by mainstream right politicians. We argue that this difference occurs because mainstream politicians represent the views of a larger part of the population or have a higher status. Our results highlight the pivotal role of mainstream politicians in enforcing or eroding democratic norms, and that similar political statements can have different effects depending on their sender."
January 15, 2026 at 12:57 PM
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
darinself.com
How bad are things? European countries are asking Germany for their military to comin into their countries to protect them from Americans.
January 14, 2026 at 7:55 PM
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
chrisgeidner.bsky.social
BREAKING: Three-judge panel, on a 2-1 vote, refuses to block California from using its mid-decade redistricting map. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
Proposition 50 was the single issue on the ballot for the November 4 special election: the Official Voter Information Guide provided maps to the voters showing both the existing district lines and the proposed new district lines. And the pros and cons of Proposition 50 were outlined in purely political, partisan terms, with each side claiming the other was engaging in a "power grab." No one told the voters that the Proposition 50 Map involved racial gerrymandering. Over 7 million Californians voted "yes" on Proposition 50, it passed by nearly a 2 to 1 margin, and the next day Plaintiffs filed their complaint in this Court. But the Supreme Court ruled in Rucho v. Common Cause that "partisan gerrymandering claims present political questions beyond the reach of the federal courts." So, Challengers have abandoned the argument they made to the voters. Proposition 50, apparently, is no longer a partisan power grab. Now, it is a "racial gerrymander." And Challengers also tell us that, even if the voters intended to adopt the Proposition 50 Map as a partisan counterweight to Texas's redistricting, their intent does not matter, as they were simply dupes of a racially-motivated legislature. However, we reject the notion that voters' intent does not matter. Instead, we employ well-understood tools to determine the voters' intent in adopting the Proposition 50 Map, and after reviewing the evidence, we conclude that it was exactly as one would think: it was partisan. Indeed, the record contains a mountain of statements reflecting the partisan goals of Proposition 50, from which Challengers have culled a molehill of statements showing race consciousness on the part of the mapmaker and certain legislators. But that is not enough to make the necessary showing that the relevant decisionmakers-here, the electorate enacted the new map for racial reasons. Nor have Challengers offered alternative maps that would prove otherwise. Significantly, they provide no alternative map for any congressional district except one: District 13.3 And as to that district, the alternative maps they do offer are either materially indistinguishable from the Proposition 50 Map or do not meet other redistricting goals.
January 14, 2026 at 8:50 PM
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
donmoyn.bsky.social
We are so far beyond "show us your papers." They don't want to see the papers. We are now into the "give us the names" stage of the occupation.
O’Keefe was put into another vehicle with three agents. She says they started taunting and mocking her, and called her ugly. “The ICE agent who had pepper sprayed into the vents of my car said ‘you guys gotta stop obstructing us, that’s why that lesbian b—— is dead,’ verbatim, speaking of Renee Good. Which filled me with absolute rage and shock that you could say that to one of her neighbors,” she said. They were brought to the Whipple Building and released after eight hours. They weren’t charged for a crime. Sigüenza said he was brought to a room with agents from the Department of Homeland Security and asked to provide the names of people he knows that are undocumented or the names of protest organizers in exchange for money or legal protection.
January 14, 2026 at 4:18 PM
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
redistrictnet.bluesky.bot
#BREAKING: Virginia Democrats plan to release proposed new congressional maps by January 30.

The referendum on the proposed maps would take place in April 2026.
BK (@BradKutner)
Timeline for #redistricting? “Will get out of #valeg this week, referendum in April, modified primary schedule, Nov elections - VOTERS WILL SEE THE MAPS VEFORE THEY VOTE - MAPS BY JAN 30” - but no maps yet, but they’re taking suggestions #ET @DelCiaPrice85 https://t.co/fLubDg56rM
xcancel.com
January 14, 2026 at 3:52 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures …

For Quartering large bodies of armed troops among us …

For protecting them, by a mock Trial, from punishment for any Murders which they should commit on the Inhabitants of these States.
resnikoff.bsky.social Ned Resnikoff @resnikoff.bsky.social · 1d
The thing that really makes Minneapolis different, other than the fact that they straight up murdered someone, is that they've dropped all pretense that this is just about immigration. The state has declared war on its own people, or at least those people who live in cities.
January 14, 2026 at 3:32 PM
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
mjsdc.bsky.social
The Supreme Court's third and FINAL decision of the day is Bost v. Illinois, holding 7–2 that candidates have standing to challenge laws that require the counting of mail ballots sent by Election Day but arriving shortly thereafter. Jackson and Sotomayor dissent. www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25p...
January 14, 2026 at 3:14 PM
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
stephenwolf.bsky.social
Here’s an example of how Virginia Democrats could draw a 10-1 congressional map for 2026 to respond to Republican mid-decade gerrymandering in other states davesredistricting.org/join/598f596...
Image of a hypothetical Virginia congressional map that is gerrymandered to elect a ten-to-one Democratic majority and flip four Republican seats in 2026. Nine of the districts are securely Democratic and shaded solid blue, one of the districts is overwhelmingly Republican and shaded dark red, and one district is narrowly Democratic-leaning and shaded light blue. An embedded chart shows the results of the 2024 presidential election in each district, with Kamala Harris winning nine districts by double-digit margins and the swing district by 3 percentage points. Republicans votes are wasted by being packed into a single district in western Virginia that Donald Trump won in a 55-point landslide. Black voters would retain their current ability to elect their chosen candidates in the safely Democratic 3rd and 4th districts in the Hampton Roads, Richmond, and Southside regions.
January 9, 2026 at 12:54 PM
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
windjunky.bsky.social
Globally, no single day in 2025 was cooler than its 1991-2020 average.
climate.copernicus.eu/global-clima...
January 14, 2026 at 12:44 PM
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
jamellebouie.net
over the course of 1871, congress held seven months of hearings on ku klux klan and other white vigilante violence in the south, they took detailed testimony from hundreds of black men and women attesting to klan terror. (1/?)
January 14, 2026 at 2:06 AM
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
yonahfreemark.com
What would this policy do?

Well, it would cut off fed funds to the following jurisdictions:
—States: CA, CO, CT, DE, DC, IL, MN, NV, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (32% of US pop, 37% of US economy)
—Locals: Baltimore county, BOS, Chicago/Cook, Denver, LA, NYC, Philly, Portland, San Diego, SF, Seattle, others
January 13, 2026 at 10:36 PM
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
keunghui.bsky.social
NC elections board rejects Sunday voting, campus polling sites in handful of counties. New GOP majority on State Elections Board approved local voting plans that didn't include early polling sites at UNCG, NC A&T & WCU. (Via @kyleingram.bsky.social) www.newsobserver.com/news/politic... #ncpol #nced
NC elections board rejects Sunday voting, campus polling sites in handful of counties
Twelve counties have failed to reach a unanimous agreement on when and where to host early voting for the March primary election.
www.newsobserver.com
January 13, 2026 at 7:07 PM
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
governorwalz.mn.gov
Trump admits that this is nothing but political retribution. Minnesota voted against him three times and now he’s punishing us – putting lives at risk and wasting enormous resources in the process.
January 13, 2026 at 6:32 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
NYT reports that at least 24/34 Democratic state senators in Maryland oppose passing a new congressional map according to a December query organized by Senate President Bill Ferguson, who is a leading opponent.

Gov. Moore, state House leadership, & national Dems are continuing to push for a new map
The Battle Over House Maps Spills Into 2026, Where an X-Factor Awaits
www.nytimes.com
January 13, 2026 at 7:01 PM
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
democracydocket.com
NEW: Ballot initiatives are a lifeline for enacting progressive policies, and Republicans know this. GOP officials nationwide are now coordinating a sweeping campaign to shut down direct democracy, making it harder for voters to have a voice. https://bit.ly/4jxAnnz
www.democracydocket.com
January 10, 2026 at 2:02 PM
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
kjephd.bsky.social
Bolsonaro's in jail for 28 years, Yoon was successfully removed via impeachment, and now faces a death sentence for attempting a coup.

These are the total opposite of the failed Weimar—and now we can say American—approaches to dealing with right wing efforts to overthrow the political order.
January 13, 2026 at 1:32 PM
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
qjurecic.bsky.social
In DC during the federal surge, citizen parents started coordinating “walking buses” to take children of immigrants safely to and from school. The city-by-city targeting can feel isolating, but it’s also shown how people can share and develop techniques of resistance over time
jcollins.bsky.social Jon Collins @jcollins.bsky.social · 2d
People who aren't in Minnesota might not know that if you drive or walk past pretty much any school, there's going to be a group of people, parents and childless, standing guard to make sure the kids are safe from feds. It's pretty remarkable. And very disturbing. www.mprnews.org/story/2026/0...
Twin Cities students walk out, decry ICE as surge continues
Hundreds of Twin Cities high school students walked out of school Monday to protest federal immigration enforcement in Minnesota. Officials are increasingly concerned about high absenteeism in some sc...
www.mprnews.org
January 13, 2026 at 3:01 PM
stephenwolf.bsky.social
Virginia’s state Senate president pro tem signals Democrats may unveil their new congressional map before voters weigh in on amending VA’s constitution this spring to allow legislation to redistrict.

Lucas has repeatedly pushed for a 10-1 map instead of just 9-2. Dems currently have a 6-5 majority
Screenshot of a social media post by Brad Kutner, Richmond bureau chief for WVTF & RADIO IQ. The text says: “NEW: @SenLouiseLucas on whether #valeg voters will see #redistricting maps before they vote on con amendment: “I think they will, the main thing is it’ll go to a referendum. But I think (voters) are going to love the maps and they’re going to love the 10-1””
January 13, 2026 at 4:26 PM
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
jamellebouie.net
lots of political space to convert those “not sures” into somewhat supports and those “somewhat supports” into strongly supports on eliminating ICE. also, with a funding battle coming up, plenty of political space to say “no government funding unless we claw back last year’s new ICE funding”
simonwdc.bsky.social Simon Rosenberg @simonwdc.bsky.social · 2d
This YouGov poll on ICE is really eye-opening. Public opinion has really swung against DHS/ICE and their terror regime.
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/IC...
January 13, 2026 at 12:24 AM
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
jakemgrumbach.bsky.social
New paper w/ Kulesza & @cmwitko.bsky.social

A worry about campaign contribution limits is that they don't stop money, they just shift it to Citizens United/SpeechNow "independent expenditures"

We find that this didn't happen. Keep calm & regulate on

www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/nk11m...

1/n
January 12, 2026 at 10:20 PM