Stephen Wolf
@stephenwolf.bsky.social
Contributor @the-downballot.com.
Democracy, voting rights, redistricting, and maps.
Democracy, voting rights, redistricting, and maps.
Pinned
Stephen Wolf
@stephenwolf.bsky.social
· Nov 18
Thread: Republicans won the Senate in 2024 despite Democrats winning more votes & representing more people nationwide.
Republicans last won more support than Democrats in the 1990s but won the Senate anyway in 7 of 13 elections since 2000.
Data & charts below: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Republicans last won more support than Democrats in the 1990s but won the Senate anyway in 7 of 13 elections since 2000.
Data & charts below: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
Wisconsin’s Supreme Court has appointed lower court panels to hear the lawsuits over the GOP-favoring congressional gerrymander.
It’s unclear whether this will resolve in time for a 2026 remap, but a fairer map would likely give Dems a good chance turn the 6-2 GOP majority into at least a 4-4 split
It’s unclear whether this will resolve in time for a 2026 remap, but a fairer map would likely give Dems a good chance turn the 6-2 GOP majority into at least a 4-4 split
This is a big deal. Order out about an hour ago.
Any effort at fairness would add at least one Democratic seat.
Any effort at fairness would add at least one Democratic seat.
Alert! Wisconsin Supreme Court appoints panels to hear challenges to state’s congressional map
— The Wisconsin Supreme Court today appointed separate three-judge panels to hear two lawsuits seeking new congressional lines ahead of the 2026 elections. The court’s move will be the first use...
pro.stateaffairs.com
November 25, 2025 at 7:34 PM
Wisconsin’s Supreme Court has appointed lower court panels to hear the lawsuits over the GOP-favoring congressional gerrymander.
It’s unclear whether this will resolve in time for a 2026 remap, but a fairer map would likely give Dems a good chance turn the 6-2 GOP majority into at least a 4-4 split
It’s unclear whether this will resolve in time for a 2026 remap, but a fairer map would likely give Dems a good chance turn the 6-2 GOP majority into at least a 4-4 split
This news comes after several Indiana Republican were targeted through swatting attempts within days of Trump calling for primary challenges against the holdouts
The Indiana Senate may meet on redistricting after all in early December: indystar.com/story/news/politics/2025/11/25/indiana-house-will-still-move-forward-on-redistricting-without-the-senate/87465822007/
November 25, 2025 at 7:26 PM
This news comes after several Indiana Republican were targeted through swatting attempts within days of Trump calling for primary challenges against the holdouts
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
The fact that Polis didn't immediately rule this out is incredibly alarming.
If he actually caves to Trump's demand, he could be impeached.
If he actually caves to Trump's demand, he could be impeached.
NEW: Colorado's election clerks are increasingly upset that Gov Jared Polis (D) hasn't ruled out releasing Tina Peters to the Trump administration.
On a call today, a bipartisan group of elected clerks said Polis hasn't agreed to meet with them about their concerns.
On a call today, a bipartisan group of elected clerks said Polis hasn't agreed to meet with them about their concerns.
November 25, 2025 at 6:13 PM
The fact that Polis didn't immediately rule this out is incredibly alarming.
If he actually caves to Trump's demand, he could be impeached.
If he actually caves to Trump's demand, he could be impeached.
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
Here are some thoughts on why fusion voting and democratized party nominations might not be an ideal combination.
November 25, 2025 at 6:14 PM
Here are some thoughts on why fusion voting and democratized party nominations might not be an ideal combination.
Utah Republicans continue to fight a lower court’s rulings that undid their congressional gerrymander & adopted a new map where Democrats are poised to flip a safely blue seat.
The GOP governor recently said he was considering a proposal to pack Utah’s Supreme Court www.sltrib.com/news/politic...
The GOP governor recently said he was considering a proposal to pack Utah’s Supreme Court www.sltrib.com/news/politic...
#BREAKING: Utah lawmakers have announced a three-pronged plan to counter the Utah congressional redistricting ruling by calling a Dec. 9 special session, advancing a 2026 constitutional amendment, and preparing an appeal to the Utah Supreme Court. www.abc4.com/news/polit…
FILE -Rep. Cory Maloy, R-Lehi, holds a packet of potential redistricting maps as SB1012 Congressional Boundaries Designation is discussed in the House chamber during a special session at the Capitol on Monday, Oct. 6, 2025, in Salt Lake City. (Kristin Murphy/The Deseret News via AP, File)
The GOP majority plans to call themselves into special session to move election-related deadlines in hopes of buying more time to appeal the recent redistricting ruling that ushered in Utah’s…
www.abc4.com
November 25, 2025 at 5:42 PM
Utah Republicans continue to fight a lower court’s rulings that undid their congressional gerrymander & adopted a new map where Democrats are poised to flip a safely blue seat.
The GOP governor recently said he was considering a proposal to pack Utah’s Supreme Court www.sltrib.com/news/politic...
The GOP governor recently said he was considering a proposal to pack Utah’s Supreme Court www.sltrib.com/news/politic...
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
But there's more. As our writeup today details, the SoS is refusing to accept some 90K signatures that were gathered before the governor signed the new map.
*And* the AG is claiming in another suit that voters can't bring a referendum at all!
It's all here → www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-di...
*And* the AG is claiming in another suit that voters can't bring a referendum at all!
It's all here → www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-di...
Morning Digest: Alabama's Doug Jones, winner of massive 2017 upset, launches bid for governor
No Democrat has won the post since 1998, but the likely GOP nominee has a particular vulnerability
www.the-downballot.com
November 25, 2025 at 4:46 PM
But there's more. As our writeup today details, the SoS is refusing to accept some 90K signatures that were gathered before the governor signed the new map.
*And* the AG is claiming in another suit that voters can't bring a referendum at all!
It's all here → www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-di...
*And* the AG is claiming in another suit that voters can't bring a referendum at all!
It's all here → www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-di...
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
MO Republicans are doing everything they can to thwart a veto referendum that would block the state's new congressional gerrymander.
The latest: The SoS drafted an extremely slanted summary to describe the referendum to voters. Organizers are now suing. www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-di...
The latest: The SoS drafted an extremely slanted summary to describe the referendum to voters. Organizers are now suing. www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-di...
November 25, 2025 at 4:46 PM
MO Republicans are doing everything they can to thwart a veto referendum that would block the state's new congressional gerrymander.
The latest: The SoS drafted an extremely slanted summary to describe the referendum to voters. Organizers are now suing. www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-di...
The latest: The SoS drafted an extremely slanted summary to describe the referendum to voters. Organizers are now suing. www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-di...
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
District court judges are engaged in a bipartisan project of [forgive me] actually calling balls and strikes. Republican circuit judges are largely going full-tilt partisan.
Stats as of last month:
courtaccountability.substack.com/p/where-law-...
Stats as of last month:
courtaccountability.substack.com/p/where-law-...
November 25, 2025 at 3:12 PM
District court judges are engaged in a bipartisan project of [forgive me] actually calling balls and strikes. Republican circuit judges are largely going full-tilt partisan.
Stats as of last month:
courtaccountability.substack.com/p/where-law-...
Stats as of last month:
courtaccountability.substack.com/p/where-law-...
This misleading language is the same crap that Ohio Republicans pulled off in 2024: claiming a vote to block GOP gerrymandering would perpetuate gerrymandering.
Missouri courts repeatedly have had to overrule Republicans who’ve given deceptive summaries to ballot measures like this in recent years
Missouri courts repeatedly have had to overrule Republicans who’ve given deceptive summaries to ballot measures like this in recent years
#NEW: People Not Politicians has filled a lawsuit arguing that the ballot summary for the referendum on Missouri's new congressional map is unfair and insufficient.
The court will hold a status conference hearing on December 22, 2025. www.komu.com/news/state…
The court will hold a status conference hearing on December 22, 2025. www.komu.com/news/state…
November 25, 2025 at 4:23 PM
This misleading language is the same crap that Ohio Republicans pulled off in 2024: claiming a vote to block GOP gerrymandering would perpetuate gerrymandering.
Missouri courts repeatedly have had to overrule Republicans who’ve given deceptive summaries to ballot measures like this in recent years
Missouri courts repeatedly have had to overrule Republicans who’ve given deceptive summaries to ballot measures like this in recent years
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
@brendannyhan.bsky.social is right: young people are reluctant to come to the defense of institutions that have excluded them, ignored them, and crushed their movements
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/24/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/24/o...
November 25, 2025 at 3:37 AM
@brendannyhan.bsky.social is right: young people are reluctant to come to the defense of institutions that have excluded them, ignored them, and crushed their movements
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/24/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/24/o...
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
BREAKING: This is huge news, the EU's equivalent of the 🇺🇸Supreme Court's 2015 Obergefell v. Hodges ruling.
🇪🇺Court of Justice just ruled all 🇪🇺countries must recognise same-sex marriages granted in other member states.
This effectively legalises gay marriage across 🇪🇺
🇪🇺Court of Justice just ruled all 🇪🇺countries must recognise same-sex marriages granted in other member states.
This effectively legalises gay marriage across 🇪🇺
www.reuters.com
November 25, 2025 at 10:10 AM
BREAKING: This is huge news, the EU's equivalent of the 🇺🇸Supreme Court's 2015 Obergefell v. Hodges ruling.
🇪🇺Court of Justice just ruled all 🇪🇺countries must recognise same-sex marriages granted in other member states.
This effectively legalises gay marriage across 🇪🇺
🇪🇺Court of Justice just ruled all 🇪🇺countries must recognise same-sex marriages granted in other member states.
This effectively legalises gay marriage across 🇪🇺
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
We really do have two different kinds of law now: District Court law (aka the law), and Supreme Court "law" (aka the U.S. House of Lords upholding Trump's personalist regime)
I don’t know what the Supreme Court will do, but I am confident that at the District Court level it is still the case that the Pentagon cannot recall a sitting US Senator to active duty in order to court martial him for something he said. Article 1, Section 6, among other constitutional provisions.
November 24, 2025 at 6:04 PM
We really do have two different kinds of law now: District Court law (aka the law), and Supreme Court "law" (aka the U.S. House of Lords upholding Trump's personalist regime)
Utah’s Supreme Court—entirely appointed by Republicans—had refused to let GOP legislators preserve their gerrymanders by gutting the ballot initiative process, which voters had used to ban gerrymandering.
Those rulings led to a lower court adopting a fairer congressional map earlier this month
Those rulings led to a lower court adopting a fairer congressional map earlier this month
Reminder: Republicans love "court packing" when it suits them:
Last week Utah Gov. Spencer Cox appointed anti-abortion culture war zealot John Nielsen to the state supreme court, & may now expand the court to create a majority more favorable to Republican legislators: www.sltrib.com/news/politic...
Last week Utah Gov. Spencer Cox appointed anti-abortion culture war zealot John Nielsen to the state supreme court, & may now expand the court to create a majority more favorable to Republican legislators: www.sltrib.com/news/politic...
November 24, 2025 at 3:35 PM
Utah’s Supreme Court—entirely appointed by Republicans—had refused to let GOP legislators preserve their gerrymanders by gutting the ballot initiative process, which voters had used to ban gerrymandering.
Those rulings led to a lower court adopting a fairer congressional map earlier this month
Those rulings led to a lower court adopting a fairer congressional map earlier this month
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
As we all wait for Callais to come down, our piece showing that Shelby County increased the racial turnout gap in most of the covered parts of the country has cleared the replication check and is incoming at JOP.
Gutting the VRA was bad, actually.
Gutting the VRA was bad, actually.
November 24, 2025 at 12:47 AM
As we all wait for Callais to come down, our piece showing that Shelby County increased the racial turnout gap in most of the covered parts of the country has cleared the replication check and is incoming at JOP.
Gutting the VRA was bad, actually.
Gutting the VRA was bad, actually.
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
Wanna know how bad the Arizona legislator's petition forgeries were? Here's the examples from the Austin Smith indictment.
s3.documentcloud.org/documents/24...
s3.documentcloud.org/documents/24...
November 24, 2025 at 2:50 AM
Wanna know how bad the Arizona legislator's petition forgeries were? Here's the examples from the Austin Smith indictment.
s3.documentcloud.org/documents/24...
s3.documentcloud.org/documents/24...
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
#NEW: Gov. Mike Braun said he and his family are among the Republicans targeted in a wave of threats against state officeholders over Indiana redistricting. www.cnn.com/2025/11/21/…
Indiana’s governor and at least 8 lawmakers have been swatted or threatened as state Republicans...
Indiana Gov. Mike Braun said he and his family are among the Republicans targeted in a wave of threats against state officeholders this week as President Donald Trump pressures Hoosier State lawmak...
www.cnn.com
November 23, 2025 at 9:36 PM
#NEW: Gov. Mike Braun said he and his family are among the Republicans targeted in a wave of threats against state officeholders over Indiana redistricting. www.cnn.com/2025/11/21/…
The Supreme Court gutting the Voting Rights Act would reverberate far beyond Congress.
It would effectively end democracy for many local govts in the South & even other regions.
At the state level, white Republicans could gerrymander legislative supermajorities in LA, MS, SC, & maybe even GA or TX
It would effectively end democracy for many local govts in the South & even other regions.
At the state level, white Republicans could gerrymander legislative supermajorities in LA, MS, SC, & maybe even GA or TX
NEW: You've heard SCOTUS could soon upend the balance in power in Congress by gutting the VRA. But that'd also be a huge blow to Black voting power in *local* governments.
In west Tennessee, Black residents just won a new county map this year—but those gains now look very fragile.
Great reporting:
In west Tennessee, Black residents just won a new county map this year—but those gains now look very fragile.
Great reporting:
Black Residents in West Tennessee Just Won Fairer Districts. Now Comes SCOTUS. - Bolts
The Supreme Court may further erode the Voting Rights Act in an upcoming decision. Beyond affecting Congress, that would reverberate across local governments nationwide.
boltsmag.org
November 23, 2025 at 6:35 PM
The Supreme Court gutting the Voting Rights Act would reverberate far beyond Congress.
It would effectively end democracy for many local govts in the South & even other regions.
At the state level, white Republicans could gerrymander legislative supermajorities in LA, MS, SC, & maybe even GA or TX
It would effectively end democracy for many local govts in the South & even other regions.
At the state level, white Republicans could gerrymander legislative supermajorities in LA, MS, SC, & maybe even GA or TX
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
Twitter pays people based on engagement (views, retweets, comments, etc). It appears that many MAGA accounts are based abroad and they use AI technology to generate low-effort rage bait.
My guess is that this will get worse as AI tech improves. For instance, fake videos of minorities doing crime.
My guess is that this will get worse as AI tech improves. For instance, fake videos of minorities doing crime.
November 23, 2025 at 9:23 AM
Twitter pays people based on engagement (views, retweets, comments, etc). It appears that many MAGA accounts are based abroad and they use AI technology to generate low-effort rage bait.
My guess is that this will get worse as AI tech improves. For instance, fake videos of minorities doing crime.
My guess is that this will get worse as AI tech improves. For instance, fake videos of minorities doing crime.
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
"Brazil’s former far-right president, Jair Bolsonaro, has been arrested at his villa in the capital, Brasília, amid suspicions he was poised to abscond to a foreign embassy to avoid going to prison for masterminding a military coup."
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
Brazilian police arrest Bolsonaro amid suspicions he was about to flee
Politician reportedly taken from his villa into custody at a federal police base about 7 miles from presidential palace
www.theguardian.com
November 22, 2025 at 12:44 PM
"Brazil’s former far-right president, Jair Bolsonaro, has been arrested at his villa in the capital, Brasília, amid suspicions he was poised to abscond to a foreign embassy to avoid going to prison for masterminding a military coup."
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/n...
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
After more than 10 years of “the Danish Model”, nativism is hegemonic in the country, the far right polls near level highs again, and the Social Democrats lost Copenhagen and poll at historic low.
European Social Democrats should look at the facts, not the myths!
Me in @theguardian.com
European Social Democrats should look at the facts, not the myths!
Me in @theguardian.com
The ‘Danish model’ is the darling of centre-left parties like Labour. The problem is, it doesn’t even work in Denmark | Cas Mudde
This week’s local elections are the latest reminder that when social democrats move rightwards, they’re making a mistake, says academic and author Cas Mudde
www.theguardian.com
November 22, 2025 at 1:59 PM
After more than 10 years of “the Danish Model”, nativism is hegemonic in the country, the far right polls near level highs again, and the Social Democrats lost Copenhagen and poll at historic low.
European Social Democrats should look at the facts, not the myths!
Me in @theguardian.com
European Social Democrats should look at the facts, not the myths!
Me in @theguardian.com
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
FWIW, Prof. @rickhasen.bsky.social believes it "likely" the Court will "put the district court ruling on ice" in the Texas gerrymander case. One big issue: the timing crunch.
UPDATE: Justice Alito Grants Administrative Stay: Texas Files Emergency Supreme Court Motion to Stay District Court Order Throwing Out 2026 Gerrymandered Maps for Congressional Elections; Justice Alit...
The State of Texas, as expected, has filed an application for a stay at the Supreme Court of the 2-1 racial gerrymandering decision issued earlier this week (over a fiery dissent by Judge Smith). Just...
electionlawblog.org
November 22, 2025 at 4:00 AM
FWIW, Prof. @rickhasen.bsky.social believes it "likely" the Court will "put the district court ruling on ice" in the Texas gerrymander case. One big issue: the timing crunch.
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
Q: Are you affirming that you think President Trump is a fascist?
MAMDANI: I've spoken about--
TRUMP: That's okay. You can just say yes. I don't mind.
MAMDANI: I've spoken about--
TRUMP: That's okay. You can just say yes. I don't mind.
November 21, 2025 at 8:53 PM
Q: Are you affirming that you think President Trump is a fascist?
MAMDANI: I've spoken about--
TRUMP: That's okay. You can just say yes. I don't mind.
MAMDANI: I've spoken about--
TRUMP: That's okay. You can just say yes. I don't mind.
New poll finds Dem voters broadly want independent redistricting but favor passing new maps to neutralize GOP gerrymanders.
California's prop 50 was unprecedented but easily passed due to Trump.
2026 is an opportune time for ballot measures in VA, NJ, & CO that would empower Dems to draw new maps
California's prop 50 was unprecedented but easily passed due to Trump.
2026 is an opportune time for ballot measures in VA, NJ, & CO that would empower Dems to draw new maps
Poll: Voters support gerrymandering to win the midterms
A majority of both Democrats and Republicans support redrawing congressional districts to give their side a boost next year.
www.politico.com
November 21, 2025 at 9:04 PM
New poll finds Dem voters broadly want independent redistricting but favor passing new maps to neutralize GOP gerrymanders.
California's prop 50 was unprecedented but easily passed due to Trump.
2026 is an opportune time for ballot measures in VA, NJ, & CO that would empower Dems to draw new maps
California's prop 50 was unprecedented but easily passed due to Trump.
2026 is an opportune time for ballot measures in VA, NJ, & CO that would empower Dems to draw new maps
“We can’t do congressional restricting because it could give our primary challengers more time to campaign against us” … is exactly why these Maryland Dems deserve to be primaried.
If they can’t be persuaded to put fighting back against Republican power grabs ahead of self interest, they need to go
If they can’t be persuaded to put fighting back against Republican power grabs ahead of self interest, they need to go
also from this article: anti-redistricting Sen. Ben Kramer (D-Montgomery County) said that he and other state senators are backing Ferguson's opposition to redistricting because they're afraid of giving their primary challengers more time to campaign against them
November 21, 2025 at 6:13 PM
“We can’t do congressional restricting because it could give our primary challengers more time to campaign against us” … is exactly why these Maryland Dems deserve to be primaried.
If they can’t be persuaded to put fighting back against Republican power grabs ahead of self interest, they need to go
If they can’t be persuaded to put fighting back against Republican power grabs ahead of self interest, they need to go
Reposted by Stephen Wolf
Props to Rep. Nydia Velazquez. This is exactly the right approach from a longtime member of Congress in their 70s. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/20/n...
November 20, 2025 at 11:40 PM
Props to Rep. Nydia Velazquez. This is exactly the right approach from a longtime member of Congress in their 70s. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/20/n...