Andrew Watkins | Lightnews

Andrew B. Watkins

@windjunky.bsky.social

1.2K followers 160 following 5.5K posts

Australian climate scientist rambling about climate drivers, variability, risks, trends & impacts. Once played goalie for Antarctica. Born @ 325ppm.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/drandrewwatkins/

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Environmental science 33%

Medicine 16%

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Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 1d

Given my teenage kids have had far more 43°C days (around 10) in their life than my father ever did (around 5), stats check out on the Watkins-generations-o-meter.

Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 1d

Early Jan 2026 SE Australia heatwave (43°C in Melb) was made at least 1.6°C hotter & “about 5 times more likely to occur now than they would have been in a preindustrial climate without human-caused warming; however, this is likely an underestimate.”
www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-chan...

Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 5d

Often takes more than one wwb, especially when it’s so early in the year.

Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 6d

I’d be wary of a relatively rapid transition to El Niño in 2026 with conditions established earlier than in recent years. A hot year for the globe, and a hot/dry spring and early summer for Australia if this occurs.
Monitoring conditions closely is the best bet, as march-may is a key period

Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 6d

This is consistent with models from around the world, and slightly cooler than the leading ECMWF model.

Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 6d

The BoM’s relative NINO forecasts still suggest a decent gradient that would touch on El Niño levels by June.

Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 6d

Models suggest that heat will move east and come to the surface in the second quarter of 2026, but parts of the western pacific may remain warm, which may slow the atmospheric response

Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 6d

Let’s talk about El Niño. Since the BoM removed its El Niño outlook service, it’s hard to get a true sense of what may be coming.
The build up of heat in the western Pacific subsurface suggests the Pacific is primed for an El Niño in 2026.

Reposted by A. E. Dessler, Peter Thorne, Mónica Medina , and 1 more A. E. Dessler, Peter Thorne, Mónica Medina, Andrew Watkins

Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 7d

A crazy amount of heat has accumulated in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean over the past two months.

Hold on to your hats when this reaches the surface with the next El Niño.

Y-axis shows depth, X-axis shows degree longitude (one degree equals 111 km) and colors temp anomalies.

@noaa.gov PMEL data

Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 9d

A brilliant article talking about stepping beyond the silos to fully understand fire risk. The National Climate Risk Assessment noted that the traditional silo approach was a great stepping stone but didn’t take us to the point of understanding real world risks
pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/the...

The way we manage fires needs to shift from ‘siloed’ to ‘connected’

University of Melbourne experts have developed a new roadmap for assessing climate change impacts on bushfire - showing that we may have all the pieces of the jigsaw, but we're yet to piece them toget...

pursuit.unimelb.edu.au

Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 9d

And….
In the year of my birth, 1969 (and indeed all of the 1960s), the globes hottest day was cooler than the globes coldest day in 2025.

Reposted by Du Toit, Gavin A. Schmidt, Ed Hawkins , and 2 more Du Toit, Gavin A. Schmidt, Ed Hawkins, Dana R. Fisher, Andrew Watkins

John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · 10d

Global mean temperature 2025: 1.44 ± 0.13 °C above the 1850-1900 average, based on a synthesis of eight international datasets.

2025 was the second or third warmest year on record. 2024 remains the warmest.

That makes the past 3 years are the 3 warmest years on record.

wmo.int/news/media-c...

WMO confirms 2025 was one of warmest years on record

wmo.int

Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 10d

Globally, no single day in 2025 was cooler than its 1991-2020 average.
climate.copernicus.eu/global-clima...

Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 11d

Very large hail events and losses. Damage costs have risen in Australia, but this appears linked to increased exposure rather than an increase in the number of events.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Reposted by Andrew Watkins

Dana Bergstrom @danambergstrom.bsky.social · 12d

Mass mortality event in grey headed fruit bats- bad on so many reasons: any loss of wildlife is tragic; greyheaded fruit bats pollinate our big trees, often migratory along the east coast & fruit bats are mammals, so when one species reaches its upper thermal limit it’s a major warning for MAMMALS 😬

Flying foxes die in their thousands in worst mass-mortality event since Australia’s black summer

Volunteers found thousands of dead bats at Melbourne’s Brimbank park, wildlife expert says

www.theguardian.com

Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 13d

I’m uneasy about the Age headline. The 2005 briefing by Geoff Love was pretty blunt about the risks.
Why isn’t the headline ‘Howard government ignored scientists warnings’??
Headline implies the climate science was wrong - it wasn’t.
Link to the 2005 briefing
recordsearch.naa.gov.au/SearchNRetri...

Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 13d

Crikey!

Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 13d

And then the sun turning bright red at about 7pm.
No filter used... thats raw colour

Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 13d

This was my view from Ricketts Point (Beaumaris, 20km from Melb) as i was packing up my windsurfing gear, at about 6pm

Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 13d

Wondering where that smoke in Melbourne suburbs yesterday afternoon/evening came from? So did I!
Satellites show it was smoke from several fires in the Otway Ranges, which started from lightning strikes overnight Friday/Saturday.
slider.cira.colostate.edu?sat=himawari...

Reposted by Stefan Rahmstorf, John De Vos, Du Toit , and 6 more Stefan Rahmstorf, John De Vos, Du Toit, David Johnson, Rupert Read, Adrian Vickers, Andrew Watkins, Tim Stephens, John H. Knox

Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 14d

2025 was the hottest year on record for ocean heat content. Unfortunately, we now say this every year. 🥹

"In addition to setting a new record in 2025, the global
ocean continues to show sustained and intensified warming."

+ #OpenAccess Study: doi.org/10.1007/s003...
+ Data: www.ocean.iap.ac.cn

Bar graph showing global ocean heat content change in the upper 2000 m from the late 1950s through 2025. There is a long-term warming in the time series, which is using IAP/CAS data.

Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 14d

www.canberratimes.com.au/story/914740...

Extreme hot and cold driving inland health emergencies

As Australia swelters through a heatwave, research suggests inland populations can expect hot days to become a bigger...

www.canberratimes.com.au

Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 14d

USA records a total of 23 billion dollar weather disasters in 2025. The long term average (in adjusted 2026 $) is 9. Only 2023 and 2024 had more BDWD than 2025. The LA fires alone cost $61b.
www.climatecentral.org/climate-matt...

2025 in Review: U.S. Billion-Dollar Disasters | Climate Central

The data’s in for 2025. It was yet another year of back-to-back billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in the U.S.

www.climatecentral.org

Reposted by Andrew Watkins

Dylan McConnell @dylanjmcconnell.bsky.social · 15d

Unusual conditions for a La Nina..

And in case it needs to be said: “Global warming means all our heatwaves and associated fire weather are made at least 1–2C hotter than they would have been due to the higher background temperature”

www.afr.com/policy/energ...

The unusual climate pattern fuelling Victoria’s bushfire emergency

Bushfires are now a familiar scene of the Australian summer, but there are concerns about the broader climatic conditions that preceded this week’s heatwave.

www.afr.com

Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 15d

Change through Geelong, Cerberus and Avalon at 4:30pm
www.baywx.com.au/melbtempnow....
www.baywx.com.au/melbregion.h...

Reposted by Sonia I. Seneviratne, Andrew Watkins

Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick @sarahinscience.bsky.social · 15d

the @australia.theguardian.com published an oped by me today.
This heatwave is bad.
The bushfires it is enabling are also bad.
Climate scientists & meteorologists are incredibly concerned about the next 48 hours.
And this is just a taste of what's to come.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

As a climate scientist, I know heatwaves in Australia will only get worse. We need to start preparing now | Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick

During black summer, my daughters were too young to know what was happening. Now, amid another Australian heatwave, they deserve answers

www.theguardian.com

Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 15d

Air above Melbourne is seriously warm - check out the jump up in temperatures in the night when storms mixed heat aloft down to the ground. Viewbank jumped from 23 to 33C betwen 4 and 4:30am, while Melb Airport hit 36C at 4am!
www.baywx.com.au/melbregion.h...

Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 16d

Some serious heat in the northern and eastern suburbs of Melbourne tomorrow. Temperatures up to 45C as close to the CBD as Preston.
Not sure i have seen a forecast for 42C at Ferny Creek - ontop of the Dandenongs - ever before
You can check your location's forcast via www.bom.gov.au/australia/me...

Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 16d

Some wise comments on Australia’s current heat, fire and flood extremes from a range of experts.
(Does include quotes from me)

www.scimex.org/newsfeed/exp...

EXPERT REACTION: Fires in the south, floods in the north. What's up wi

EXPERT REACTION: Fires in the south, floods in the north. What's up with the weather? While much of Southern Australia is having its worst heatwave in years and extreme to catastrophi

www.scimex.org

Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 16d

Never seen this before - Ambulance service red alert. Ambos in high risk parts of Catastrophic fire regions (eg next to bush land) will withdraw to safer ground tomorrow.

www.ambulance.vic.gov.au/site-2177/re...

Red escalation of ambulance services across Victoria

Ambulance Victoria has declared a Red Escalation across Victoria from 7am on Friday 9 January 2026, in response to the catastrophic fire danger declaration for the South West, Wimmera, North Central a...

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