Andrew B. Watkins
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windjunky.bsky.social
Andrew B. Watkins
@windjunky.bsky.social
Australian climate scientist rambling about climate drivers, variability, risks, trends & impacts. Once played goalie for Antarctica. Born @ 325ppm.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/drandrewwatkins/
Given my teenage kids have had far more 43°C days (around 10) in their life than my father ever did (around 5), stats check out on the Watkins-generations-o-meter.
January 23, 2026 at 6:22 PM
Often takes more than one wwb, especially when it’s so early in the year.
January 19, 2026 at 4:30 AM
I’d be wary of a relatively rapid transition to El Niño in 2026 with conditions established earlier than in recent years. A hot year for the globe, and a hot/dry spring and early summer for Australia if this occurs.
Monitoring conditions closely is the best bet, as march-may is a key period
January 18, 2026 at 1:00 AM
This is consistent with models from around the world, and slightly cooler than the leading ECMWF model.
January 18, 2026 at 1:00 AM
The BoM’s relative NINO forecasts still suggest a decent gradient that would touch on El Niño levels by June.
January 18, 2026 at 1:00 AM
Models suggest that heat will move east and come to the surface in the second quarter of 2026, but parts of the western pacific may remain warm, which may slow the atmospheric response
January 18, 2026 at 1:00 AM
And….
In the year of my birth, 1969 (and indeed all of the 1960s), the globes hottest day was cooler than the globes coldest day in 2025.
January 15, 2026 at 12:00 AM
Crikey!
January 11, 2026 at 1:59 AM
And then the sun turning bright red at about 7pm.
No filter used... thats raw colour
January 11, 2026 at 1:21 AM
This was my view from Ricketts Point (Beaumaris, 20km from Melb) as i was packing up my windsurfing gear, at about 6pm
January 11, 2026 at 1:21 AM