Andrew B. Watkins
@windjunky.bsky.social
Australian climate scientist rambling about climate drivers, variability, risks, trends & impacts. Once played goalie for Antarctica. Born @ 325ppm.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/drandrewwatkins/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/drandrewwatkins/
February 3, 2026 at 11:13 PM
While we have been watching the heat, inland Qld has floods.
Already areas have had a years worth of average rainfall in first 5 weeks of the year, with almost 3 months to go in their wet season.
www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps...
Already areas have had a years worth of average rainfall in first 5 weeks of the year, with almost 3 months to go in their wet season.
www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps...
February 3, 2026 at 8:04 AM
While we have been watching the heat, inland Qld has floods.
Already areas have had a years worth of average rainfall in first 5 weeks of the year, with almost 3 months to go in their wet season.
www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps...
Already areas have had a years worth of average rainfall in first 5 weeks of the year, with almost 3 months to go in their wet season.
www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps...
I spoke about heat records, NCRA, Antarctica and the arts on Einstein-a-Go-Go (3RRR) this morning. Listen at:
www.rrr.org.au/shared/broad...
www.rrr.org.au/shared/broad...
February 1, 2026 at 2:41 AM
I spoke about heat records, NCRA, Antarctica and the arts on Einstein-a-Go-Go (3RRR) this morning. Listen at:
www.rrr.org.au/shared/broad...
www.rrr.org.au/shared/broad...
Second day with SA recording a 50C now...
www.bom.gov.au/sa/observati...
www.bom.gov.au/sa/observati...
January 30, 2026 at 4:32 AM
Second day with SA recording a 50C now...
www.bom.gov.au/sa/observati...
www.bom.gov.au/sa/observati...
First 50C (provisional) of the heatwave posted at Andamooka (SA) yesterday. May not be the last.
Data at: reg.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/...
Data at: reg.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/...
January 30, 2026 at 4:11 AM
First 50C (provisional) of the heatwave posted at Andamooka (SA) yesterday. May not be the last.
Data at: reg.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/...
Data at: reg.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/...
Concerning temperatures in South Australia today. Roxby Downs already 49.4C at 2:17pm local time. Recent maximums have been hit around 4pm.
Also 49.0C at Maree - second day in a row 49+, 4th consecutive day over 48. 'Only' 47C forecast tomorrow.
Is 50C on the cards?
www.bom.gov.au/sa/observati...
Also 49.0C at Maree - second day in a row 49+, 4th consecutive day over 48. 'Only' 47C forecast tomorrow.
Is 50C on the cards?
www.bom.gov.au/sa/observati...
January 30, 2026 at 4:05 AM
Concerning temperatures in South Australia today. Roxby Downs already 49.4C at 2:17pm local time. Recent maximums have been hit around 4pm.
Also 49.0C at Maree - second day in a row 49+, 4th consecutive day over 48. 'Only' 47C forecast tomorrow.
Is 50C on the cards?
www.bom.gov.au/sa/observati...
Also 49.0C at Maree - second day in a row 49+, 4th consecutive day over 48. 'Only' 47C forecast tomorrow.
Is 50C on the cards?
www.bom.gov.au/sa/observati...
South Australia, this is getting crazy.
www.bom.gov.au/sa/observati...
www.bom.gov.au/sa/observati...
January 29, 2026 at 11:01 AM
South Australia, this is getting crazy.
www.bom.gov.au/sa/observati...
www.bom.gov.au/sa/observati...
How did you arrive at 174million? There are 27 million people in Australia.
January 28, 2026 at 9:54 PM
How did you arrive at 174million? There are 27 million people in Australia.
World Weather Attribution @wwattribution.bsky.social and BoM scientists stars in today’s First Dog on the Moon cartoon. Recent Australian heatwaves occurring x5 as often as before climate change. Now that’s science communication
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
@firstdogonthemoon.bsky.social
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
@firstdogonthemoon.bsky.social
January 28, 2026 at 8:34 AM
World Weather Attribution @wwattribution.bsky.social and BoM scientists stars in today’s First Dog on the Moon cartoon. Recent Australian heatwaves occurring x5 as often as before climate change. Now that’s science communication
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
@firstdogonthemoon.bsky.social
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
@firstdogonthemoon.bsky.social
Stop Press. Pooncarie (NSW) Post Office has read its manual thermometer at 9am and its maximum temperature for yesterday (Tue 27 Jan 026) was 49.7C
Equal second hottest temperature in the reliable BoM records for NSW.
reg.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio...
Equal second hottest temperature in the reliable BoM records for NSW.
reg.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio...
January 27, 2026 at 11:23 PM
Stop Press. Pooncarie (NSW) Post Office has read its manual thermometer at 9am and its maximum temperature for yesterday (Tue 27 Jan 026) was 49.7C
Equal second hottest temperature in the reliable BoM records for NSW.
reg.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio...
Equal second hottest temperature in the reliable BoM records for NSW.
reg.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio...
January 27, 2026 at 10:14 PM
Hopetoun (48.9C) has now also broken the old Vic record also set at Hopetoun on 7 Feb 2009 (48.8)
January 27, 2026 at 5:21 AM
Hopetoun (48.9C) has now also broken the old Vic record also set at Hopetoun on 7 Feb 2009 (48.8)
New all-time record set for Victoria, Walpeup 48.9°C, noting that Ouyen won’t report until tomorrow as it is a manually recorded site.
reg.bom.gov.au/places/vic/
reg.bom.gov.au/places/vic/
January 27, 2026 at 4:53 AM
New all-time record set for Victoria, Walpeup 48.9°C, noting that Ouyen won’t report until tomorrow as it is a manually recorded site.
reg.bom.gov.au/places/vic/
reg.bom.gov.au/places/vic/
Its not even 1:30pm in the eastern states and we have this..
You can track the BoM observed maximum temps by clicking on the state names on the old 'reg.bom.gov.au' page: reg.bom.gov.au/places/
You can track the BoM observed maximum temps by clicking on the state names on the old 'reg.bom.gov.au' page: reg.bom.gov.au/places/
January 27, 2026 at 2:40 AM
Its not even 1:30pm in the eastern states and we have this..
You can track the BoM observed maximum temps by clicking on the state names on the old 'reg.bom.gov.au' page: reg.bom.gov.au/places/
You can track the BoM observed maximum temps by clicking on the state names on the old 'reg.bom.gov.au' page: reg.bom.gov.au/places/
Add to the 'dont see that everyday' file; Laverton in the 40's and Avalon in the 20's!!
A weak east-west trough sitting along the southern coastline is seperating the SW from the NW/NE (it wont last)
www.baywx.com.au/melbtempmax....
A weak east-west trough sitting along the southern coastline is seperating the SW from the NW/NE (it wont last)
www.baywx.com.au/melbtempmax....
January 27, 2026 at 2:09 AM
Add to the 'dont see that everyday' file; Laverton in the 40's and Avalon in the 20's!!
A weak east-west trough sitting along the southern coastline is seperating the SW from the NW/NE (it wont last)
www.baywx.com.au/melbtempmax....
A weak east-west trough sitting along the southern coastline is seperating the SW from the NW/NE (it wont last)
www.baywx.com.au/melbtempmax....
Forecast Melbourne maximum temperatures for 27 Jan 2026.
Not much escape by the water or on top of the Dandenongs (Ferny Creek), and yes, a Laverton has a 46C forecast.
reg.bom.gov.au/vic/forecast...
Not much escape by the water or on top of the Dandenongs (Ferny Creek), and yes, a Laverton has a 46C forecast.
reg.bom.gov.au/vic/forecast...
January 26, 2026 at 8:03 PM
Forecast Melbourne maximum temperatures for 27 Jan 2026.
Not much escape by the water or on top of the Dandenongs (Ferny Creek), and yes, a Laverton has a 46C forecast.
reg.bom.gov.au/vic/forecast...
Not much escape by the water or on top of the Dandenongs (Ferny Creek), and yes, a Laverton has a 46C forecast.
reg.bom.gov.au/vic/forecast...
Top work ABC: Adam Morgan explaining the heatwave in terms of climate change on ABC news
January 26, 2026 at 8:14 AM
Top work ABC: Adam Morgan explaining the heatwave in terms of climate change on ABC news
The highest temperature ever recorded in Victoria is 48.8°C at Hopetoun on 7 Feb 2009.
The forecast for Tuesday at Ouyen Victoria is 49°C.
The forecast for Tuesday at Ouyen Victoria is 49°C.
January 25, 2026 at 12:48 PM
The highest temperature ever recorded in Victoria is 48.8°C at Hopetoun on 7 Feb 2009.
The forecast for Tuesday at Ouyen Victoria is 49°C.
The forecast for Tuesday at Ouyen Victoria is 49°C.
Early Jan 2026 SE Australia heatwave (43°C in Melb) was made at least 1.6°C hotter & “about 5 times more likely to occur now than they would have been in a preindustrial climate without human-caused warming; however, this is likely an underestimate.”
www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-chan...
www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-chan...
January 23, 2026 at 6:12 PM
Early Jan 2026 SE Australia heatwave (43°C in Melb) was made at least 1.6°C hotter & “about 5 times more likely to occur now than they would have been in a preindustrial climate without human-caused warming; however, this is likely an underestimate.”
www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-chan...
www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-chan...
This is consistent with models from around the world, and slightly cooler than the leading ECMWF model.
January 18, 2026 at 1:00 AM
This is consistent with models from around the world, and slightly cooler than the leading ECMWF model.
The BoM’s relative NINO forecasts still suggest a decent gradient that would touch on El Niño levels by June.
January 18, 2026 at 1:00 AM
The BoM’s relative NINO forecasts still suggest a decent gradient that would touch on El Niño levels by June.
Models suggest that heat will move east and come to the surface in the second quarter of 2026, but parts of the western pacific may remain warm, which may slow the atmospheric response
January 18, 2026 at 1:00 AM
Models suggest that heat will move east and come to the surface in the second quarter of 2026, but parts of the western pacific may remain warm, which may slow the atmospheric response
Let’s talk about El Niño. Since the BoM removed its El Niño outlook service, it’s hard to get a true sense of what may be coming.
The build up of heat in the western Pacific subsurface suggests the Pacific is primed for an El Niño in 2026.
The build up of heat in the western Pacific subsurface suggests the Pacific is primed for an El Niño in 2026.
January 18, 2026 at 1:00 AM
Let’s talk about El Niño. Since the BoM removed its El Niño outlook service, it’s hard to get a true sense of what may be coming.
The build up of heat in the western Pacific subsurface suggests the Pacific is primed for an El Niño in 2026.
The build up of heat in the western Pacific subsurface suggests the Pacific is primed for an El Niño in 2026.
And….
In the year of my birth, 1969 (and indeed all of the 1960s), the globes hottest day was cooler than the globes coldest day in 2025.
In the year of my birth, 1969 (and indeed all of the 1960s), the globes hottest day was cooler than the globes coldest day in 2025.
January 15, 2026 at 12:00 AM
And….
In the year of my birth, 1969 (and indeed all of the 1960s), the globes hottest day was cooler than the globes coldest day in 2025.
In the year of my birth, 1969 (and indeed all of the 1960s), the globes hottest day was cooler than the globes coldest day in 2025.
Globally, no single day in 2025 was cooler than its 1991-2020 average.
climate.copernicus.eu/global-clima...
climate.copernicus.eu/global-clima...
January 14, 2026 at 12:44 PM
Globally, no single day in 2025 was cooler than its 1991-2020 average.
climate.copernicus.eu/global-clima...
climate.copernicus.eu/global-clima...