Steven Kelly
@stevinok.bsky.social
48 followers 81 following 90 posts
Born to spreadsheet, forced to vibe https://kellycriterion.substack.com
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stevinok.bsky.social
Barely outdueling Mac Jones used to be a bad thing
stevinok.bsky.social
I just spend every week forcing myself to remember the Lions, Rams, and Jags games
Reposted by Steven Kelly
sethwalder.bsky.social
Thus far in Week 5, there's only been one CB-WR matchup that occurred at least 15 times and resulted in 0 receiving yards:

Isaiah Rodgers vs. Jerry Jeudy.

17 matchups, two targets, zero receptions, per NFL Next Gen Stats.
stevinok.bsky.social
Is there a current dead thing or no?
stevinok.bsky.social
But I need that excuse
stevinok.bsky.social
Well, I don't know why anyone would do this to themselves, but I can't hurt me more than the Vikings already do.
Reposted by Steven Kelly
hockeyviz.com
Kirill Kaprizov (8x17m extension with Minnesota) is a very good hockey player.
Reposted by Steven Kelly
arif.bsky.social
pre-snap penalties have to be the easiest area of improvement for MIN, right. It's primarily on offense and offensive pre-snap penalties occurred under both QBs (quite a bit) so it's not as easy as saying one is better but like fix this and you fix a lot, fast (h/t @statbutler.com )
stevinok.bsky.social
Carson Wentz, and the general Vikings O, doing the perfect amount to keep my JJM hopes alive and potentially win a game or two in the meantime
stevinok.bsky.social
In spite of the watermark, the data isn't available via nflfastr, right? Just a blend of ngs and pff?
stevinok.bsky.social
Yeah, I'm also at least a little skeptical of the positive correlation between the axes. You'd like to be able to delineate blame between the line play, the QB, and the system. This just tells me there's a problem in MN, which I learned the hard way Sunday Night
stevinok.bsky.social
Adding to Arif's explanation.

EPA - Expected points Added
CPOE - Completion percentage over expectation
Reposted by Steven Kelly
nicholasgrossman.bsky.social
An antisemite shot two kids in Colorado, at least one of whom is Jewish.

The White House “fighting antisemitism” doesn’t care, because the shooter was a student radicalized online into far right beliefs, which the regime is cool with, rather than a student verbally criticizing Israeli govt policy.
‘Radicalized’ Evergreen High School shooter appeared to hold antisemitic, violent views in online accounts
Social media accounts that appear to be connected to the 16-year-old shooter are littered with references to mass shootings and antisemitic views, The Denver Post found.
www.denverpost.com
stevinok.bsky.social
The Rs are going to wait for focus groups of swing voters to determine how many concentration camps to build?
stevinok.bsky.social
If you consider J6 an act of political violence, the "normies" (read as low info voters, or swing voters, or whoever) elected the chief instigator of political violence over the last, like, 50 years to be POTUS. What are we talking about here?
stevinok.bsky.social
Idk man, the idea that the autocrats and their cronies are just waiting for liberals to slip up as an excuse to do fascism is pretty far fetched.

In the prerogative/normative state model, the prerog. state can be arbitrary. It's sorta the whole point. Failure to engage with that is silly imo
stevinok.bsky.social
Legitimately 5 years ago that throw might kill DJ Moore
stevinok.bsky.social
Week one of the NFL is always just nuts man. My stuff really didn't like Dallas in this game (I mean, they were below average in EPA/play on offense even when Dak was playing last season, so...). Color me pretty shocked
Contour plot for our pre-game sims for the Philly/Dallas game, week 1 2025.
stevinok.bsky.social
Deleted my X account, is the deal here that there's not a ton of signal in how the games end up one score games?
stevinok.bsky.social
Huge news! Missing participation data had been a huge bummer, excited to get it back!!
stevinok.bsky.social
Discs are tricky! When he's back at full health in 2028, he's gonna be a menace
stevinok.bsky.social
Are you suggesting he wasn't dealing with back soreness/tightness?
Reposted by Steven Kelly
jonbois.bsky.social
i'd like to start a new subculture for people like me who are apartment dwellers and aren't allowed to have a gas or charcoal grill. we'll be like barbecue guys only for microwaves. we'll wear shirts to work that say "i'd rather be microwavin'!" and share microwave steak recipes and stuff