Ryan Blake
@swingsandtakes.com
I write about the Mariners for https://lookoutlanding.bsky.social/
(Former barn https://swingsandtakes.com)
(Former barn https://swingsandtakes.com)
Christmas gifts to myself this year were annual memberships for Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs and also this mug
December 27, 2025 at 9:56 PM
Christmas gifts to myself this year were annual memberships for Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs and also this mug
Christmas
Christmas
Christmas
Oh Christmas
You Christmas you
Christmas
Christmas
Christmas
Christmas
Oh Christmas
You Christmas you
Christmas
Christmas
December 25, 2025 at 10:34 PM
Christmas
Christmas
Christmas
Oh Christmas
You Christmas you
Christmas
Christmas
Christmas
Christmas
Oh Christmas
You Christmas you
Christmas
Christmas
Black asterisk is at $148M, so about $20M up since the offseason began but still $40M short of the 2025 year-end payroll, $100M short of the luxury tax.
December 16, 2025 at 9:11 PM
Black asterisk is at $148M, so about $20M up since the offseason began but still $40M short of the 2025 year-end payroll, $100M short of the luxury tax.
Jorge Polanco stood left-on-left for the first time in his career in 2025!
December 16, 2025 at 6:10 PM
Jorge Polanco stood left-on-left for the first time in his career in 2025!
The story of that season was, of course, was an underperforming offense, which eventually led to several firings. Once Edgar joined the team, the quotes from players really emphasized a simplified approach from top to bottom.
This was my take after the season.
swingsandtakes.com/241007-edgar...
This was my take after the season.
swingsandtakes.com/241007-edgar...
December 11, 2025 at 10:14 PM
The story of that season was, of course, was an underperforming offense, which eventually led to several firings. Once Edgar joined the team, the quotes from players really emphasized a simplified approach from top to bottom.
This was my take after the season.
swingsandtakes.com/241007-edgar...
This was my take after the season.
swingsandtakes.com/241007-edgar...
This made me think of Brant Brown, who filled this role for the Mariners to begin 2024. I liked much of what he said, but it always seemed like too much info or maybe just not the right voice.
I think Goldsmith had the best summary of the philosophy.
sports.mynorthwest.com/brock-and-sa...
I think Goldsmith had the best summary of the philosophy.
sports.mynorthwest.com/brock-and-sa...
December 11, 2025 at 10:05 PM
This made me think of Brant Brown, who filled this role for the Mariners to begin 2024. I liked much of what he said, but it always seemed like too much info or maybe just not the right voice.
I think Goldsmith had the best summary of the philosophy.
sports.mynorthwest.com/brock-and-sa...
I think Goldsmith had the best summary of the philosophy.
sports.mynorthwest.com/brock-and-sa...
I expect the Mariners will begin 2026 with their best projection ever, but much in the same way they began 2025 with their best projection ever.
December 10, 2025 at 10:04 PM
I expect the Mariners will begin 2026 with their best projection ever, but much in the same way they began 2025 with their best projection ever.
The Mariners projections are already in line with their Opening Day projections from the last 3-4 years. They are good enough to win the AL West or miss the playoffs.
Another $30 million (and roughly 4 fWAR) would be an aberration, but it would solidify them as one of MLB's best teams on paper.
Another $30 million (and roughly 4 fWAR) would be an aberration, but it would solidify them as one of MLB's best teams on paper.
November 17, 2025 at 6:21 PM
The Mariners projections are already in line with their Opening Day projections from the last 3-4 years. They are good enough to win the AL West or miss the playoffs.
Another $30 million (and roughly 4 fWAR) would be an aberration, but it would solidify them as one of MLB's best teams on paper.
Another $30 million (and roughly 4 fWAR) would be an aberration, but it would solidify them as one of MLB's best teams on paper.
Dipoto's latest comments suggest 2026 payroll will return to 2025 levels, which hit about $184M in Sept.
Payroll dropped to $124M at the beginning of the offseason. After Naylor (and a few minor moves) it's now up to about $154M, according to the payroll sheet from @goose1701.com
Payroll dropped to $124M at the beginning of the offseason. After Naylor (and a few minor moves) it's now up to about $154M, according to the payroll sheet from @goose1701.com
November 17, 2025 at 6:16 PM
Dipoto's latest comments suggest 2026 payroll will return to 2025 levels, which hit about $184M in Sept.
Payroll dropped to $124M at the beginning of the offseason. After Naylor (and a few minor moves) it's now up to about $154M, according to the payroll sheet from @goose1701.com
Payroll dropped to $124M at the beginning of the offseason. After Naylor (and a few minor moves) it's now up to about $154M, according to the payroll sheet from @goose1701.com
A rough snapshot of the Mariners' depth chart.
Mariners batters rank third by projected fWAR; pitchers rank 11th.
It's already one of the best top of rosters in MLB. The task this offseason, before Naylor and now after, is filling out the rest.
Mariners batters rank third by projected fWAR; pitchers rank 11th.
It's already one of the best top of rosters in MLB. The task this offseason, before Naylor and now after, is filling out the rest.
November 17, 2025 at 6:10 PM
A rough snapshot of the Mariners' depth chart.
Mariners batters rank third by projected fWAR; pitchers rank 11th.
It's already one of the best top of rosters in MLB. The task this offseason, before Naylor and now after, is filling out the rest.
Mariners batters rank third by projected fWAR; pitchers rank 11th.
It's already one of the best top of rosters in MLB. The task this offseason, before Naylor and now after, is filling out the rest.
The Mariners, by a decimal, are now the second best projected team in MLB by Steamer. They began the offseason just below the Blue Jays and leapt to second with the signing of Naylor.
Steamer projects 140 fWAR still in FA -- lots will change.
Steamer projects 140 fWAR still in FA -- lots will change.
November 17, 2025 at 5:57 PM
The Mariners, by a decimal, are now the second best projected team in MLB by Steamer. They began the offseason just below the Blue Jays and leapt to second with the signing of Naylor.
Steamer projects 140 fWAR still in FA -- lots will change.
Steamer projects 140 fWAR still in FA -- lots will change.
OK let's try something new
Hitting + Base running + Fielding (no adjustments)
On a rate basis for most player-seasons this century
Distributions split by position
Hitting + Base running + Fielding (no adjustments)
On a rate basis for most player-seasons this century
Distributions split by position
November 14, 2025 at 9:17 PM
OK let's try something new
Hitting + Base running + Fielding (no adjustments)
On a rate basis for most player-seasons this century
Distributions split by position
Hitting + Base running + Fielding (no adjustments)
On a rate basis for most player-seasons this century
Distributions split by position
Here's all batter seasons since 2000 by position.
November 14, 2025 at 4:52 PM
Here's all batter seasons since 2000 by position.
fWAR per 162 distribution by position, highlighting catchers. All qualified batter seasons since 2000.
November 14, 2025 at 3:40 PM
fWAR per 162 distribution by position, highlighting catchers. All qualified batter seasons since 2000.
The newest statue remains tba, but if you want my speculation…
November 4, 2025 at 9:27 PM
The newest statue remains tba, but if you want my speculation…
Graph 1: Cumulative investment in T-Mobile Park since 2019
Graph 2: Planned investments for the current budget cycle (>$250K)
Graph 2: Planned investments for the current budget cycle (>$250K)
November 4, 2025 at 7:47 PM
Graph 1: Cumulative investment in T-Mobile Park since 2019
Graph 2: Planned investments for the current budget cycle (>$250K)
Graph 2: Planned investments for the current budget cycle (>$250K)
Attendance tends to lag behind team success. Mariners fans held on in the early days of the drought, but once they left, they didn't really return as expected in the mid-to-late teens.
The last three years, attendance has again been commensurate with the quality of the team.
The last three years, attendance has again been commensurate with the quality of the team.
November 4, 2025 at 7:41 PM
Attendance tends to lag behind team success. Mariners fans held on in the early days of the drought, but once they left, they didn't really return as expected in the mid-to-late teens.
The last three years, attendance has again been commensurate with the quality of the team.
The last three years, attendance has again been commensurate with the quality of the team.
This plot shows what the Mariners attendance would look like in 2026 if they got the average 5% bump for making the LCS. A bigger LCS bump is not uncommon.
November 4, 2025 at 7:37 PM
This plot shows what the Mariners attendance would look like in 2026 if they got the average 5% bump for making the LCS. A bigger LCS bump is not uncommon.
OF arm value leaderboard
October 18, 2025 at 12:09 AM
OF arm value leaderboard
Time to break this one out
October 17, 2025 at 5:30 PM
Time to break this one out