Tom Bonier
@tbonier.bsky.social
CEO @ The TARA Group, Senior Advisor @ TargetSmart, Former @ Howard University, Clarity Campaign Labs, NCEC
https://tombonier.substack.com/
https://tombonier.substack.com/
Comparing new registrants in PA over the last few weeks of last year's election to the same time this year, the biggest drop for GOPs is among women. Last year, 39% were R. This year - 22%, a massive 17 pt drop.
October 31, 2025 at 12:01 AM
Comparing new registrants in PA over the last few weeks of last year's election to the same time this year, the biggest drop for GOPs is among women. Last year, 39% were R. This year - 22%, a massive 17 pt drop.
If we narrow the scope to the last few weeks before PA's voter registration deadline, we find that GOP registrations have bottomed out, giving Dems an advantage of almost 19 pts, exceeding the benchmark from 4 and 8 years prior.
October 31, 2025 at 12:01 AM
If we narrow the scope to the last few weeks before PA's voter registration deadline, we find that GOP registrations have bottomed out, giving Dems an advantage of almost 19 pts, exceeding the benchmark from 4 and 8 years prior.
Dems in PA doubled the previous quarter's advantage among new registrants during the July to October period, now +12D during that time.
October 31, 2025 at 12:01 AM
Dems in PA doubled the previous quarter's advantage among new registrants during the July to October period, now +12D during that time.
The next three months (late April to late July of this year) saw Dems start to build a real advantage among new registrants in PA, a 6 pt spread over that period.
October 31, 2025 at 12:01 AM
The next three months (late April to late July of this year) saw Dems start to build a real advantage among new registrants in PA, a 6 pt spread over that period.
Dems closed the gap among new registrants in PA during the first 3 months of Trump's presidency, with a very slight advantage overall (but still very far behind where they had been over the same period 4 and 8 years prior).
October 31, 2025 at 12:01 AM
Dems closed the gap among new registrants in PA during the first 3 months of Trump's presidency, with a very slight advantage overall (but still very far behind where they had been over the same period 4 and 8 years prior).
In the period between the election and Trump's inauguration, things got even better for the GOP. New registrants were +9R.
October 31, 2025 at 12:01 AM
In the period between the election and Trump's inauguration, things got even better for the GOP. New registrants were +9R.
Looking at the new voter registrations in PA over the past year+ shows some very interesting trends.
Let's start with the 3 months leading up to last year's election. New registrants were +5R over that period.
Let's start with the 3 months leading up to last year's election. New registrants were +5R over that period.
October 31, 2025 at 12:01 AM
Looking at the new voter registrations in PA over the past year+ shows some very interesting trends.
Let's start with the 3 months leading up to last year's election. New registrants were +5R over that period.
Let's start with the 3 months leading up to last year's election. New registrants were +5R over that period.
This is all happening while white voters are registering at a lower rate. So how is GOP registration share increasing? They are doing somewhat better with Hispanic and AAPI voters than they did in the past, while Dem share is dropping (unaffiliated is increasing the most).
March 19, 2025 at 2:01 PM
This is all happening while white voters are registering at a lower rate. So how is GOP registration share increasing? They are doing somewhat better with Hispanic and AAPI voters than they did in the past, while Dem share is dropping (unaffiliated is increasing the most).
As a cautionary note, we also have data from NC that is somewhat recent (through Feb 21st). In this case, looking at just the period since Trump took office, Republicans continue to outregister Dems.
March 19, 2025 at 2:01 PM
As a cautionary note, we also have data from NC that is somewhat recent (through Feb 21st). In this case, looking at just the period since Trump took office, Republicans continue to outregister Dems.
I will add - the slides above were looking at new reg in VA since Election Day last year. In this case, I limited it to just since Trump took office. You will see that modeled Dem registration has spiked under Trump. We'll see if this continues, and is replicated elsewhere.
March 19, 2025 at 1:52 PM
I will add - the slides above were looking at new reg in VA since Election Day last year. In this case, I limited it to just since Trump took office. You will see that modeled Dem registration has spiked under Trump. We'll see if this continues, and is replicated elsewhere.
Finally, by modeled partisanship (VA doesn't have party reg), the models think the new registrants are much less GOP than they were in the past two gov election years in VA. These are models, so take it with a grain of salt.
March 19, 2025 at 1:52 PM
Finally, by modeled partisanship (VA doesn't have party reg), the models think the new registrants are much less GOP than they were in the past two gov election years in VA. These are models, so take it with a grain of salt.
If we look at race/ethnicity, the new registrants in VA are also less white. The same notion mentioned above applies - Trump made inroads with these voters in 2024, but seems to have lost ground with them as president.
March 19, 2025 at 1:52 PM
If we look at race/ethnicity, the new registrants in VA are also less white. The same notion mentioned above applies - Trump made inroads with these voters in 2024, but seems to have lost ground with them as president.
The new registrants are also younger than in years past. Of course, these demographic analyses have become more fraught in that Republicans have made inroads with young voters, esp young men and voters of color. But recent polls show these voters abandoning Trump of late.
March 19, 2025 at 1:52 PM
The new registrants are also younger than in years past. Of course, these demographic analyses have become more fraught in that Republicans have made inroads with young voters, esp young men and voters of color. But recent polls show these voters abandoning Trump of late.
First, if you look at where the new registrants are coming from compared to the same time period in 2021 and 2017, they are much more heavily from urban areas. Over the past 4 years nationally, rural areas have been overperforming, so this is a noticeable change.
March 19, 2025 at 1:52 PM
First, if you look at where the new registrants are coming from compared to the same time period in 2021 and 2017, they are much more heavily from urban areas. Over the past 4 years nationally, rural areas have been overperforming, so this is a noticeable change.
A restaurant up the street from me (in an area Trump won) posted this several hundred word, detailed explanation of why the cost of eggs is soaring, and therefore why they have increased their prices. It’s accurate/understandable. Yet a few months ago it would have just been pinned on Biden.
January 30, 2025 at 12:44 PM
A restaurant up the street from me (in an area Trump won) posted this several hundred word, detailed explanation of why the cost of eggs is soaring, and therefore why they have increased their prices. It’s accurate/understandable. Yet a few months ago it would have just been pinned on Biden.
How bad have things gotten for Dems in FL? In 2020, new registrants there were +4 GOP. In 2024? +20 GOP.
January 29, 2025 at 11:57 PM
How bad have things gotten for Dems in FL? In 2020, new registrants there were +4 GOP. In 2024? +20 GOP.
In case anyone is wondering how the Trump presidency is going for the Republican party, in a special election for a state Senate seat in IA, the Dem candidate won Clinton County by almost 4 pts. Trump carried that county by 19.
January 29, 2025 at 3:02 AM
In case anyone is wondering how the Trump presidency is going for the Republican party, in a special election for a state Senate seat in IA, the Dem candidate won Clinton County by almost 4 pts. Trump carried that county by 19.
The exit polls show Biden winning 69% of Hispanic voters in PA in 2020, and Harris at 59%, a 10 pt drop. If you look at the turnout data, in 2020 67% of Hispanics who voted there were registered Dems. That dropped to 58% in '24, a 9 pt drop.
January 24, 2025 at 6:12 PM
The exit polls show Biden winning 69% of Hispanic voters in PA in 2020, and Harris at 59%, a 10 pt drop. If you look at the turnout data, in 2020 67% of Hispanics who voted there were registered Dems. That dropped to 58% in '24, a 9 pt drop.
Sorry, back to PA for one note - there was an age gap. GOP voters under 30 matched their 2020 turnout. The only GOP age group to beat that was >age 75. While young voters were the worst turnout group for Dems, relative to 2020
January 24, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Sorry, back to PA for one note - there was an age gap. GOP voters under 30 matched their 2020 turnout. The only GOP age group to beat that was >age 75. While young voters were the worst turnout group for Dems, relative to 2020
We also have FL vote history, where you have an even more extreme version of the same story. In 2020 the FL electorate was +2.1% GOP. In 2024 it was +11 GOP, because GOPs demolished Dems in voter reg over the previous 4 years and got better turnout.
January 24, 2025 at 2:51 PM
We also have FL vote history, where you have an even more extreme version of the same story. In 2020 the FL electorate was +2.1% GOP. In 2024 it was +11 GOP, because GOPs demolished Dems in voter reg over the previous 4 years and got better turnout.
If you look at the PA vote in terms of turnout, Dem turnout dropped by 1% from 2020, while GOP turnout dropped by 0.6%. Not a huge difference, but the issue is that Dem registration dropped by 138k from 2020, while GOP registration increased by 242k.
January 24, 2025 at 2:45 PM
If you look at the PA vote in terms of turnout, Dem turnout dropped by 1% from 2020, while GOP turnout dropped by 0.6%. Not a huge difference, but the issue is that Dem registration dropped by 138k from 2020, while GOP registration increased by 242k.
In 2020 the PA electorate was +3.8% D. This time it was +0.9% GOP, a 4.7% swing. For reference, Biden won PA by 1.2%, and Harris lost it by 1.7%, and 2.9% swing.
January 24, 2025 at 2:45 PM
In 2020 the PA electorate was +3.8% D. This time it was +0.9% GOP, a 4.7% swing. For reference, Biden won PA by 1.2%, and Harris lost it by 1.7%, and 2.9% swing.
For the people who violently assaulted police officers in an attempt to overthrow our democracy
January 21, 2025 at 1:31 AM
For the people who violently assaulted police officers in an attempt to overthrow our democracy
We have the turnout data for WI. As was the case almost everywhere, there was no great surge in GOP turnout, but rather Dem turnout fell off, relative to 2020, by more than GOP turnout did.
January 13, 2025 at 1:46 PM
We have the turnout data for WI. As was the case almost everywhere, there was no great surge in GOP turnout, but rather Dem turnout fell off, relative to 2020, by more than GOP turnout did.