Tom Bonier
@tbonier.bsky.social
CEO @ The TARA Group, Senior Advisor @ TargetSmart, Former @ Howard University, Clarity Campaign Labs, NCEC
https://tombonier.substack.com/
https://tombonier.substack.com/
One reason I'm looking forward to a competitive Dem presidential primary in '28: it's good for the party and will boost Dem registration.
These stats are for NY statewide, in the 5 weeks around this year's primary. Dem reg was 3x what it was in the same period 4 years ago.
These stats are for NY statewide, in the 5 weeks around this year's primary. Dem reg was 3x what it was in the same period 4 years ago.
November 26, 2025 at 12:56 AM
One reason I'm looking forward to a competitive Dem presidential primary in '28: it's good for the party and will boost Dem registration.
These stats are for NY statewide, in the 5 weeks around this year's primary. Dem reg was 3x what it was in the same period 4 years ago.
These stats are for NY statewide, in the 5 weeks around this year's primary. Dem reg was 3x what it was in the same period 4 years ago.
And now to pivot away from politics in advance of the Thanksgiving break... any of my folks here into astrophotography, and willing to answer annoying questions from an extreme novice from time to time?
November 25, 2025 at 10:19 PM
And now to pivot away from politics in advance of the Thanksgiving break... any of my folks here into astrophotography, and willing to answer annoying questions from an extreme novice from time to time?
Evidence that the massive swing among young voters back to Dems that we saw in NY, VA, and NJ earlier this month is not limited to those states.
Take PA: from Eday '24 to Jan 20th, young new regisrants were +5R.
In the last month of this year's election they were +24D.
Take PA: from Eday '24 to Jan 20th, young new regisrants were +5R.
In the last month of this year's election they were +24D.
November 25, 2025 at 10:01 PM
Evidence that the massive swing among young voters back to Dems that we saw in NY, VA, and NJ earlier this month is not limited to those states.
Take PA: from Eday '24 to Jan 20th, young new regisrants were +5R.
In the last month of this year's election they were +24D.
Take PA: from Eday '24 to Jan 20th, young new regisrants were +5R.
In the last month of this year's election they were +24D.
Looking at the new voter registrations in PA over the past year+ shows some very interesting trends.
Let's start with the 3 months leading up to last year's election. New registrants were +5R over that period.
Let's start with the 3 months leading up to last year's election. New registrants were +5R over that period.
October 31, 2025 at 12:01 AM
Looking at the new voter registrations in PA over the past year+ shows some very interesting trends.
Let's start with the 3 months leading up to last year's election. New registrants were +5R over that period.
Let's start with the 3 months leading up to last year's election. New registrants were +5R over that period.
Reposted by Tom Bonier
This is actually a really interesting conversation with @tbonier.bsky.social about one of the biggest issues plaguing Democrats right now, which is poor voter registration numbers.
But there are also a lot of fun, nerdy data discussions here, too.
youtu.be/adtKie3Rqjo?...
But there are also a lot of fun, nerdy data discussions here, too.
youtu.be/adtKie3Rqjo?...
The Huge MISTAKES Democrats Have Made In The Trump Era | Chuck Todd Politics Podcast
YouTube video by The Chuck ToddCast
youtu.be
October 16, 2025 at 8:09 PM
This is actually a really interesting conversation with @tbonier.bsky.social about one of the biggest issues plaguing Democrats right now, which is poor voter registration numbers.
But there are also a lot of fun, nerdy data discussions here, too.
youtu.be/adtKie3Rqjo?...
But there are also a lot of fun, nerdy data discussions here, too.
youtu.be/adtKie3Rqjo?...
In the immediate aftermath of Charlie Kirk's murder, I saw a fair amount of speculation as to whether or not we would see a "Charlie Kirk Effect" in new voter registrations. It's still too early to fully answer this question, but there's not much evidence of it, as of now.
October 11, 2025 at 3:16 PM
In the immediate aftermath of Charlie Kirk's murder, I saw a fair amount of speculation as to whether or not we would see a "Charlie Kirk Effect" in new voter registrations. It's still too early to fully answer this question, but there's not much evidence of it, as of now.
Our mission has always been about giving our clients the tools/data they need to reach their targets. Which is why we built the Media Buying Platform. Read more about how it can be your secret weapon, while making your valuable ad spend go much further.
www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-we...
www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-we...
Why We Built the Media Buying Platform
In today’s digital advertising landscape, political campaigns face a paradox. While digital advertising is more powerful and targetable than ever, the infrastructure behind it is increasingly opaque, ...
www.linkedin.com
July 11, 2025 at 2:08 PM
Our mission has always been about giving our clients the tools/data they need to reach their targets. Which is why we built the Media Buying Platform. Read more about how it can be your secret weapon, while making your valuable ad spend go much further.
www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-we...
www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-we...
I'll be on with Edwin shortly!
Today on WCPT820AM & @heartlandsignal.bsky.social: we'll unpack this jawdropping week with my incredible guests:
+ @swingleft.bsky.social
+ @davidpepperoh.bsky.social
+ @nicholsuprising.bsky.social
+ @tbonier.bsky.social
🤳Stream 1-4pm CT bit.ly/3DAcG8s
+ @swingleft.bsky.social
+ @davidpepperoh.bsky.social
+ @nicholsuprising.bsky.social
+ @tbonier.bsky.social
🤳Stream 1-4pm CT bit.ly/3DAcG8s
June 28, 2025 at 7:49 PM
I'll be on with Edwin shortly!
In case you missed here, here's the recording of my session with @simonwdc.bsky.social yesterday. It's a bit of a good news/bad news presentation, but the bottom line is, there are great opportunities in front of us. www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/dems-need-...
June 21, 2025 at 12:41 PM
In case you missed here, here's the recording of my session with @simonwdc.bsky.social yesterday. It's a bit of a good news/bad news presentation, but the bottom line is, there are great opportunities in front of us. www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/dems-need-...
I'll be joining @simonwdc.bsky.social later today to share some data/analysis for the first time publicly, focused on what happened in 2024 and where things stand now. You can view it here... open.substack.com/live-stream/...?
LIVE SOON: Tom Bonier Comes By With Some New Data and Analysis
Starting Jun 20 at 2:15 PM EDT
open.substack.com
June 20, 2025 at 2:12 PM
I'll be joining @simonwdc.bsky.social later today to share some data/analysis for the first time publicly, focused on what happened in 2024 and where things stand now. You can view it here... open.substack.com/live-stream/...?
Reposted by Tom Bonier
Trump is the biggest fuck up in American history.
New Gallup poll finds an all-time high in the share of Americans saying their financial situation is “getting worse”
April 22, 2025 at 8:52 PM
Trump is the biggest fuck up in American history.
Reposted by Tom Bonier
Over on The Hellsite, JD Vance has now functionally called for an end to due process for migrants. His argument is riddled with deceptions, bad faith, and embarrassingly awful logic. I think it needs a real response, so here's what I put up over there.
First, his 20 million number is fiction. 1/
First, his 20 million number is fiction. 1/
April 17, 2025 at 11:23 AM
Over on The Hellsite, JD Vance has now functionally called for an end to due process for migrants. His argument is riddled with deceptions, bad faith, and embarrassingly awful logic. I think it needs a real response, so here's what I put up over there.
First, his 20 million number is fiction. 1/
First, his 20 million number is fiction. 1/
I've been direct in recent weeks, noting that Dem deficiencies in voter registration have persisted in the few states where files have been updated since Jan 20th, though also noting those updates covered only a few weeks of the Trump admin. Now we have a VA file through Feb.
March 19, 2025 at 1:52 PM
I've been direct in recent weeks, noting that Dem deficiencies in voter registration have persisted in the few states where files have been updated since Jan 20th, though also noting those updates covered only a few weeks of the Trump admin. Now we have a VA file through Feb.
Trump is busy destroying the country, so naturally leading Dems are fighting back by attacking trans women.
Democratic strategist James Carville did an interview with Fox News to encourage more lawmakers in his party to come out against trans people in sports and agree with Gavin Newsom
"I think that's a view that most Americans have”
www.foxnews.com/media/james-...
"I think that's a view that most Americans have”
www.foxnews.com/media/james-...
James Carville predicts more Dems will follow Gavin Newsom in speaking out on trans athletes in women's sports
Veteran Democratic strategist James Carville predicted other Democrats will follow Gavin Newsom and oppose trans athletes in women's sports.
www.foxnews.com
March 18, 2025 at 12:25 AM
Trump is busy destroying the country, so naturally leading Dems are fighting back by attacking trans women.
Great to see two Americans winning in Paris-Nice today,
@magnussheffield.bsky.social taking the stage and @matteojorgenson.bsky.social winning the overall (and conducting his podium interview in what appears to be flawless French). It's nice to have positive representatives of our country overseas.
@magnussheffield.bsky.social taking the stage and @matteojorgenson.bsky.social winning the overall (and conducting his podium interview in what appears to be flawless French). It's nice to have positive representatives of our country overseas.
March 16, 2025 at 4:43 PM
Great to see two Americans winning in Paris-Nice today,
@magnussheffield.bsky.social taking the stage and @matteojorgenson.bsky.social winning the overall (and conducting his podium interview in what appears to be flawless French). It's nice to have positive representatives of our country overseas.
@magnussheffield.bsky.social taking the stage and @matteojorgenson.bsky.social winning the overall (and conducting his podium interview in what appears to be flawless French). It's nice to have positive representatives of our country overseas.
Deregulation: so people can die for cheaper eggs
Rollins: "The Biden team basically depopulated about 150m egg laying hens last year, which is the protocol. We're looking at the protocol now to see how to tweak it so that hopefully we don't have to do that moving forward. But we rolled out a 5 point plan a week ago. It includes deregulation."
March 8, 2025 at 12:10 PM
Deregulation: so people can die for cheaper eggs
We should figure out who is in charge of this company that keeps failing at space and make sure they are never put in charge of anything to do with our government.
Nearly two months after an explosion sent flaming debris raining down on the Turks and Caicos, SpaceX launched another mammoth Starship rocket but lost contact minutes into the test flight.
SpaceX loses contact with spacecraft during Starship mega rocket test flight
Nearly two months after an explosion sent flaming debris raining down on the Turks and Caicos, SpaceX launched another mammoth Starship rocket but lost contact minutes into the test flight.
www.npr.org
March 7, 2025 at 1:26 AM
We should figure out who is in charge of this company that keeps failing at space and make sure they are never put in charge of anything to do with our government.
Reposted by Tom Bonier
BREAKING — The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has just announced the closure of major regional offices in Philly, LA and Chicago, per email shared with me.
“5 alarm fire,” SEC employee tells me.
Full email text:
“5 alarm fire,” SEC employee tells me.
Full email text:
March 3, 2025 at 9:14 PM
BREAKING — The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has just announced the closure of major regional offices in Philly, LA and Chicago, per email shared with me.
“5 alarm fire,” SEC employee tells me.
Full email text:
“5 alarm fire,” SEC employee tells me.
Full email text:
Here's the thing: when you fire a lot of people at Twitter and something breaks (ie, you make a mistake), the consequences are minimal. I can't believe that this needs to be said, but Twitter ≠ the federal government. Mistakes can cost lives.
Elon Musk: "We will make mistakes. We won't be perfect ... so for example, with USAID, one of the things we accidentally canceled very briefly was ebola prevention."
February 26, 2025 at 11:23 PM
Here's the thing: when you fire a lot of people at Twitter and something breaks (ie, you make a mistake), the consequences are minimal. I can't believe that this needs to be said, but Twitter ≠ the federal government. Mistakes can cost lives.
I'm late to sharing this, but I'm so disappointed in MSNBC's decision regarding @joyannreid.bsky.social. Joy was unafraid to call out those in power, which certainly made her some enemies, but IMO also made her indispensable. And beyond that, she is a good human. We need more of all of this.
February 26, 2025 at 7:48 PM
I'm late to sharing this, but I'm so disappointed in MSNBC's decision regarding @joyannreid.bsky.social. Joy was unafraid to call out those in power, which certainly made her some enemies, but IMO also made her indispensable. And beyond that, she is a good human. We need more of all of this.
The wealthiest man in the world spent hundreds of millions of dollars to put Trump in power, and one of the first things he did was to starve children. You decide if that was a feature or a bug.
Awful: Delivery of life saving treatment to nearly 400,000 severely malnourished kids abroad is in doubt amid USAID firings, the product's manufacturers tell me.
The treatment is a paste made of peanuts, milk and sugar for kids on edge of starvation.
Details here:
newrepublic.com/article/1919...
The treatment is a paste made of peanuts, milk and sugar for kids on edge of starvation.
Details here:
newrepublic.com/article/1919...
Musk Scandal at USAID Takes Ugly Turn, Putting Starving Kids at Risk
Two U.S. nonprofits that manufacture a treatment sent by USAID to help severely malnourished children abroad say the process is in chaos. This isn’t what Marco Rubio said would happen.
newrepublic.com
February 26, 2025 at 12:51 PM
The wealthiest man in the world spent hundreds of millions of dollars to put Trump in power, and one of the first things he did was to starve children. You decide if that was a feature or a bug.
The only message we can take from the Chiefs getting shut out in the first half is clearly that God is angry at Harrison Butker.
February 10, 2025 at 1:29 AM
The only message we can take from the Chiefs getting shut out in the first half is clearly that God is angry at Harrison Butker.
So the tower was understaffed, yet our President, VP, SecDef, and Sec of Transportation faced the press and universally blamed DEI.
Perhaps because they are in the midst of actively understaffing every single federal department.
nytimes.com/live/2025/01...
Perhaps because they are in the midst of actively understaffing every single federal department.
nytimes.com/live/2025/01...
Live Updates: Control Tower Staffing Was ‘Not Normal’ During Deadly Crash, F.A.A. Report Says
nytimes.com
January 30, 2025 at 8:57 PM
So the tower was understaffed, yet our President, VP, SecDef, and Sec of Transportation faced the press and universally blamed DEI.
Perhaps because they are in the midst of actively understaffing every single federal department.
nytimes.com/live/2025/01...
Perhaps because they are in the midst of actively understaffing every single federal department.
nytimes.com/live/2025/01...
We currently do not have an FAA Administrator, because the previous one was forced out by the billionaire who got Trump elected and was given unchecked authority in return. He was forced out because he tried to fine the billionaire's space company for operating unsafely.
January 30, 2025 at 3:25 PM
We currently do not have an FAA Administrator, because the previous one was forced out by the billionaire who got Trump elected and was given unchecked authority in return. He was forced out because he tried to fine the billionaire's space company for operating unsafely.