Comparing new registrants in PA over the last few weeks of last year's election to the same time this year, the biggest drop for GOPs is among women. Last year, 39% were R. This year - 22%, a massive 17 pt drop.

If we narrow the scope to the last few weeks before PA's voter registration deadline, we find that GOP registrations have bottomed out, giving Dems an advantage of almost 19 pts, exceeding the benchmark from 4 and 8 years prior.

Dems in PA doubled the previous quarter's advantage among new registrants during the July to October period, now +12D during that time.

The next three months (late April to late July of this year) saw Dems start to build a real advantage among new registrants in PA, a 6 pt spread over that period.

Dems closed the gap among new registrants in PA during the first 3 months of Trump's presidency, with a very slight advantage overall (but still very far behind where they had been over the same period 4 and 8 years prior).

In the period between the election and Trump's inauguration, things got even better for the GOP. New registrants were +9R.

Thank you! And yeah… the headline is silly

We'll keep an eye on this. It's possible that if there was a surge, those voters registered as unaffiliated, not GOP, as many did in 2024. We'll see.

There was a small GOP bump in OK, one of the most GOP and conservative states. The week prior to Kirk's death new registrants were +26R, then +28R the week following his death, and the next week +30R.

Many states have not produced updated files that cover that time period, so the sample is limited. One state that has updated is PA. The week before Kirk's death, new registrants were +15D. The week after his death they were +20D, and +18D the week after that.

This is all happening while white voters are registering at a lower rate. So how is GOP registration share increasing? They are doing somewhat better with Hispanic and AAPI voters than they did in the past, while Dem share is dropping (unaffiliated is increasing the most).

As a cautionary note, we also have data from NC that is somewhat recent (through Feb 21st). In this case, looking at just the period since Trump took office, Republicans continue to outregister Dems.

I will add - the slides above were looking at new reg in VA since Election Day last year. In this case, I limited it to just since Trump took office. You will see that modeled Dem registration has spiked under Trump. We'll see if this continues, and is replicated elsewhere.

Finally, by modeled partisanship (VA doesn't have party reg), the models think the new registrants are much less GOP than they were in the past two gov election years in VA. These are models, so take it with a grain of salt.

If we look at race/ethnicity, the new registrants in VA are also less white. The same notion mentioned above applies - Trump made inroads with these voters in 2024, but seems to have lost ground with them as president.

The new registrants are also younger than in years past. Of course, these demographic analyses have become more fraught in that Republicans have made inroads with young voters, esp young men and voters of color. But recent polls show these voters abandoning Trump of late.