Taimoor Chatoor
@tchatoor.bsky.social
Good with numbers, bad with words.
Data Scientist @ Pinterest. Previously @ Raiders.
Columbia and Carnegie Mellon grad.
https://x.com/taimoorcha
https://substack.com/@tchatoor/p-157293042
Data Scientist @ Pinterest. Previously @ Raiders.
Columbia and Carnegie Mellon grad.
https://x.com/taimoorcha
https://substack.com/@tchatoor/p-157293042
This bar chart breaks down how frequently Salah reaches different levels of expected goals + assists (xG + xAG) in a game, comparing matches where Trent Alexander-Arnold played (blue) to those where he didn’t (red).
April 13, 2025 at 12:51 PM
This bar chart breaks down how frequently Salah reaches different levels of expected goals + assists (xG + xAG) in a game, comparing matches where Trent Alexander-Arnold played (blue) to those where he didn’t (red).
The chart separates Mohamed Salah’s performances into two groups based on whether Trent Alexander-Arnold played at least 60 minutes.
On the left, we see matches where Trent was on the pitch (blue).
On the right, matches where he was either absent or played less than 60 minutes (red).
On the left, we see matches where Trent was on the pitch (blue).
On the right, matches where he was either absent or played less than 60 minutes (red).
April 13, 2025 at 12:51 PM
The chart separates Mohamed Salah’s performances into two groups based on whether Trent Alexander-Arnold played at least 60 minutes.
On the left, we see matches where Trent was on the pitch (blue).
On the right, matches where he was either absent or played less than 60 minutes (red).
On the left, we see matches where Trent was on the pitch (blue).
On the right, matches where he was either absent or played less than 60 minutes (red).
The chart plots Salah’s expected goals + assists per game across his appearances, split by whether Trent Alexander-Arnold played at least 60 minutes (blue) or not (red). Each point represents a single match, and the trend lines illustrate the average trajectory in each scenario.
April 13, 2025 at 12:51 PM
The chart plots Salah’s expected goals + assists per game across his appearances, split by whether Trent Alexander-Arnold played at least 60 minutes (blue) or not (red). Each point represents a single match, and the trend lines illustrate the average trajectory in each scenario.
Trent initiates progression, and Salah benefits. The more Trent plays those forward balls, the more Salah receives them—fueling chances, touches in key areas, and ultimately, goals and assists.
April 13, 2025 at 12:51 PM
Trent initiates progression, and Salah benefits. The more Trent plays those forward balls, the more Salah receives them—fueling chances, touches in key areas, and ultimately, goals and assists.
My latest post on Substack looks at Mo Salah's statistics with and without Trent Alexander Arnold.
Safe to say, Mo is better with Trent on the field and will certainly miss LFC's #66.
Link here: taimoorchatoor.substack.com/p/the-trent-...
More in the 🧵
Safe to say, Mo is better with Trent on the field and will certainly miss LFC's #66.
Link here: taimoorchatoor.substack.com/p/the-trent-...
More in the 🧵
April 13, 2025 at 12:51 PM
My latest post on Substack looks at Mo Salah's statistics with and without Trent Alexander Arnold.
Safe to say, Mo is better with Trent on the field and will certainly miss LFC's #66.
Link here: taimoorchatoor.substack.com/p/the-trent-...
More in the 🧵
Safe to say, Mo is better with Trent on the field and will certainly miss LFC's #66.
Link here: taimoorchatoor.substack.com/p/the-trent-...
More in the 🧵
If you split this up into 6 seasons (19/20 - 24/25) you can see he starts at 9.75km/90 and has slowly declined to 8.75km/90. I don't think a 1km decline is purely down to possession focus. Plus Slot is probably not as intense as Klopp but he is still very intense.
April 12, 2025 at 8:00 PM
If you split this up into 6 seasons (19/20 - 24/25) you can see he starts at 9.75km/90 and has slowly declined to 8.75km/90. I don't think a 1km decline is purely down to possession focus. Plus Slot is probably not as intense as Klopp but he is still very intense.
More here: tchatoor.substack.com/p/can-penalt...
April 4, 2025 at 4:29 PM
More here: tchatoor.substack.com/p/can-penalt...
The 2021-2022 title race would have looked different if penalties had been awarded fairly.
LFC finished just one point behind City (93 vs. 92), and while LFC's penalty count aligned with expectations, City received about two more penalties than their underlying attacking numbers.
LFC finished just one point behind City (93 vs. 92), and while LFC's penalty count aligned with expectations, City received about two more penalties than their underlying attacking numbers.
April 4, 2025 at 4:23 PM
The 2021-2022 title race would have looked different if penalties had been awarded fairly.
LFC finished just one point behind City (93 vs. 92), and while LFC's penalty count aligned with expectations, City received about two more penalties than their underlying attacking numbers.
LFC finished just one point behind City (93 vs. 92), and while LFC's penalty count aligned with expectations, City received about two more penalties than their underlying attacking numbers.
Seeing a lot of discourse online about LFC's penalty 'luck.'
AFC experienced that same penalty 'luck' last season.
Even if you adjust the table for penalty 'luck', LFC would be 7 points ahead of AFC.
When LFC get 9 penalties it's luck. When AFC get 10 it's par for course?
AFC experienced that same penalty 'luck' last season.
Even if you adjust the table for penalty 'luck', LFC would be 7 points ahead of AFC.
When LFC get 9 penalties it's luck. When AFC get 10 it's par for course?
April 1, 2025 at 2:25 PM
Seeing a lot of discourse online about LFC's penalty 'luck.'
AFC experienced that same penalty 'luck' last season.
Even if you adjust the table for penalty 'luck', LFC would be 7 points ahead of AFC.
When LFC get 9 penalties it's luck. When AFC get 10 it's par for course?
AFC experienced that same penalty 'luck' last season.
Even if you adjust the table for penalty 'luck', LFC would be 7 points ahead of AFC.
When LFC get 9 penalties it's luck. When AFC get 10 it's par for course?
Arsenal are one of the most screwed over teams by refs in general though.
They get -1.4 penalties less than they should per season.
Spurs the most screwed over team by refs (-3 fewer penalties per season)
City most favored by the refs.
More here: tchatoor.substack.com/p/can-penalt...
They get -1.4 penalties less than they should per season.
Spurs the most screwed over team by refs (-3 fewer penalties per season)
City most favored by the refs.
More here: tchatoor.substack.com/p/can-penalt...
March 31, 2025 at 7:49 PM
Arsenal are one of the most screwed over teams by refs in general though.
They get -1.4 penalties less than they should per season.
Spurs the most screwed over team by refs (-3 fewer penalties per season)
City most favored by the refs.
More here: tchatoor.substack.com/p/can-penalt...
They get -1.4 penalties less than they should per season.
Spurs the most screwed over team by refs (-3 fewer penalties per season)
City most favored by the refs.
More here: tchatoor.substack.com/p/can-penalt...
However, projecting productivity beyond a two-year contract extension becomes increasingly challenging, as the pool of comparable players significantly narrows. By age 35, most elite players have either moved to less competitive leagues—like Messi transitioning to MLS—or retired.
March 25, 2025 at 3:14 PM
However, projecting productivity beyond a two-year contract extension becomes increasingly challenging, as the pool of comparable players significantly narrows. By age 35, most elite players have either moved to less competitive leagues—like Messi transitioning to MLS—or retired.
Here are some historical comps of 32-34 year olds in the top 5 leagues.
Di Natale, Robben, Ronaldo, Aspas, Vardy, Benzema, Messi, Suarez, Lewandowski like Salah, produced more than 20 non-penalty goals and assists at the age of 32 and went on to do well.
Di Natale, Robben, Ronaldo, Aspas, Vardy, Benzema, Messi, Suarez, Lewandowski like Salah, produced more than 20 non-penalty goals and assists at the age of 32 and went on to do well.
March 25, 2025 at 3:14 PM
Here are some historical comps of 32-34 year olds in the top 5 leagues.
Di Natale, Robben, Ronaldo, Aspas, Vardy, Benzema, Messi, Suarez, Lewandowski like Salah, produced more than 20 non-penalty goals and assists at the age of 32 and went on to do well.
Di Natale, Robben, Ronaldo, Aspas, Vardy, Benzema, Messi, Suarez, Lewandowski like Salah, produced more than 20 non-penalty goals and assists at the age of 32 and went on to do well.
Mo Salah on the other hand has performed consistently, in line with what's expected of him given his age and previous production. He is a consistent output machine.
He has over-performed this year and was last signed to an extension after an over-performance in 21-22.
He has over-performed this year and was last signed to an extension after an over-performance in 21-22.
March 25, 2025 at 3:14 PM
Mo Salah on the other hand has performed consistently, in line with what's expected of him given his age and previous production. He is a consistent output machine.
He has over-performed this year and was last signed to an extension after an over-performance in 21-22.
He has over-performed this year and was last signed to an extension after an over-performance in 21-22.
Mane and Firmino had both been in decline prior to when LFC let them leave.
Both should have done a lot better given their age and previous production but didn't.
Letting Firmino walk and selling Mane to Bayern were easy decisions.
Both should have done a lot better given their age and previous production but didn't.
Letting Firmino walk and selling Mane to Bayern were easy decisions.
March 25, 2025 at 3:14 PM
Mane and Firmino had both been in decline prior to when LFC let them leave.
Both should have done a lot better given their age and previous production but didn't.
Letting Firmino walk and selling Mane to Bayern were easy decisions.
Both should have done a lot better given their age and previous production but didn't.
Letting Firmino walk and selling Mane to Bayern were easy decisions.
Note: Vinicius Jr, like Mo Salah, is a victim of his own success. In his breakout 2021–2022 season, he reached 27 NPG&A, so a slight drop in 2022–2023 doesn't necessarily indicate underperformance—it reflects the challenge of sustaining peak output.
datawrapper.de/_/5aUjF/
datawrapper.de/_/5aUjF/
March 19, 2025 at 5:31 PM
Note: Vinicius Jr, like Mo Salah, is a victim of his own success. In his breakout 2021–2022 season, he reached 27 NPG&A, so a slight drop in 2022–2023 doesn't necessarily indicate underperformance—it reflects the challenge of sustaining peak output.
datawrapper.de/_/5aUjF/
datawrapper.de/_/5aUjF/
March 19, 2025 at 5:31 PM
Players that broke out in 2021-2022. Looking at their Actual Non-Penalty Goals & Assists vs Predicted Non-Penalty Goals & Assists.
datawrapper.dwcdn.net/3iRfu/1/
datawrapper.dwcdn.net/3iRfu/1/
March 19, 2025 at 5:31 PM
Players that broke out in 2021-2022. Looking at their Actual Non-Penalty Goals & Assists vs Predicted Non-Penalty Goals & Assists.
datawrapper.dwcdn.net/3iRfu/1/
datawrapper.dwcdn.net/3iRfu/1/
Salah, exceptional since signing his latest contract. Which leaves me convinced the club will re-sign him. Always performs as expected.
#LFC previously rewarded him after over-performance in 2021-2022.
#LFC previously rewarded him after over-performance in 2021-2022.
March 17, 2025 at 3:20 PM
Salah, exceptional since signing his latest contract. Which leaves me convinced the club will re-sign him. Always performs as expected.
#LFC previously rewarded him after over-performance in 2021-2022.
#LFC previously rewarded him after over-performance in 2021-2022.
Same for Roberto Firmino.
Should have done a lot more from 2018 - 2021.
Should have done a lot more from 2018 - 2021.
March 17, 2025 at 3:20 PM
Same for Roberto Firmino.
Should have done a lot more from 2018 - 2021.
Should have done a lot more from 2018 - 2021.
Built a model to predict a player’s non-penalty G+A, factoring in historical performance, age, playing time, league quality, and team strength.
Applied it to LFC’s forward decisions—Sadio Mané’s sale made sense. He’d been underperforming for a while relative to expectations.
Applied it to LFC’s forward decisions—Sadio Mané’s sale made sense. He’d been underperforming for a while relative to expectations.
March 17, 2025 at 3:20 PM
Built a model to predict a player’s non-penalty G+A, factoring in historical performance, age, playing time, league quality, and team strength.
Applied it to LFC’s forward decisions—Sadio Mané’s sale made sense. He’d been underperforming for a while relative to expectations.
Applied it to LFC’s forward decisions—Sadio Mané’s sale made sense. He’d been underperforming for a while relative to expectations.
Players who have taken a leap this season:
Dembélé (+12.2 G&A above prediction)
Isak (+9.6)
Schick (+8.8)
Salah (+8.7)
Barcola (+8.4)
They have significantly exceeded their predicted G&A, indicating standout performances relative to their predicted levels.
Dembélé (+12.2 G&A above prediction)
Isak (+9.6)
Schick (+8.8)
Salah (+8.7)
Barcola (+8.4)
They have significantly exceeded their predicted G&A, indicating standout performances relative to their predicted levels.
March 16, 2025 at 2:17 PM
Players who have taken a leap this season:
Dembélé (+12.2 G&A above prediction)
Isak (+9.6)
Schick (+8.8)
Salah (+8.7)
Barcola (+8.4)
They have significantly exceeded their predicted G&A, indicating standout performances relative to their predicted levels.
Dembélé (+12.2 G&A above prediction)
Isak (+9.6)
Schick (+8.8)
Salah (+8.7)
Barcola (+8.4)
They have significantly exceeded their predicted G&A, indicating standout performances relative to their predicted levels.
Luis Diaz has been solid this season (13 non-penalty G+A in ~1850 mins) for Liverpool, currently top of the Premier League. But is that enough for a forward at his peak on a title-contending team?
March 16, 2025 at 11:22 AM
Luis Diaz has been solid this season (13 non-penalty G+A in ~1850 mins) for Liverpool, currently top of the Premier League. But is that enough for a forward at his peak on a title-contending team?
When losing, Trent:
5. Gets aggressive and reduces the number of backwards and sideways passes and starts looking for forward passes into space for Salah/Szob. Also, crosses and switches for Nunez/Gakpo/Jota/Diaz increase.
5. Gets aggressive and reduces the number of backwards and sideways passes and starts looking for forward passes into space for Salah/Szob. Also, crosses and switches for Nunez/Gakpo/Jota/Diaz increase.
March 11, 2025 at 6:05 PM
When losing, Trent:
5. Gets aggressive and reduces the number of backwards and sideways passes and starts looking for forward passes into space for Salah/Szob. Also, crosses and switches for Nunez/Gakpo/Jota/Diaz increase.
5. Gets aggressive and reduces the number of backwards and sideways passes and starts looking for forward passes into space for Salah/Szob. Also, crosses and switches for Nunez/Gakpo/Jota/Diaz increase.
When drawing, Trent:
4. Sticks to the game plan and continues at his normal rate with sideways and backwards passes, reduces the number of low probability switches and crosses but increases forward passes in space for Salah + Szob.
4. Sticks to the game plan and continues at his normal rate with sideways and backwards passes, reduces the number of low probability switches and crosses but increases forward passes in space for Salah + Szob.
March 11, 2025 at 6:05 PM
When drawing, Trent:
4. Sticks to the game plan and continues at his normal rate with sideways and backwards passes, reduces the number of low probability switches and crosses but increases forward passes in space for Salah + Szob.
4. Sticks to the game plan and continues at his normal rate with sideways and backwards passes, reduces the number of low probability switches and crosses but increases forward passes in space for Salah + Szob.
3. More cross-field switches, crosses and long balls to Diaz/Jota/Nunez/Gakpo when losing but no real change when drawing.
Suggesting again that he sticks to the game plan when drawing and is more patient but there's an increased sense of urgency.
Suggesting again that he sticks to the game plan when drawing and is more patient but there's an increased sense of urgency.
March 11, 2025 at 6:05 PM
3. More cross-field switches, crosses and long balls to Diaz/Jota/Nunez/Gakpo when losing but no real change when drawing.
Suggesting again that he sticks to the game plan when drawing and is more patient but there's an increased sense of urgency.
Suggesting again that he sticks to the game plan when drawing and is more patient but there's an increased sense of urgency.