Taimoor Chatoor
@tchatoor.bsky.social
Good with numbers, bad with words.
Data Scientist @ Pinterest. Previously @ Raiders.
Columbia and Carnegie Mellon grad.
https://x.com/taimoorcha
https://substack.com/@tchatoor/p-157293042
Data Scientist @ Pinterest. Previously @ Raiders.
Columbia and Carnegie Mellon grad.
https://x.com/taimoorcha
https://substack.com/@tchatoor/p-157293042
Full article here: taimoorchatoor.substack.com/p/the-trent-...
The Trent Effect: How Salah’s Output Drops Without His Key Creator
A data-driven breakdown of Mohamed Salah’s attacking metrics with and without Trent Alexander-Arnold on the pitch.
taimoorchatoor.substack.com
April 13, 2025 at 12:51 PM
Full article here: taimoorchatoor.substack.com/p/the-trent-...
This bar chart breaks down how frequently Salah reaches different levels of expected goals + assists (xG + xAG) in a game, comparing matches where Trent Alexander-Arnold played (blue) to those where he didn’t (red).
April 13, 2025 at 12:51 PM
This bar chart breaks down how frequently Salah reaches different levels of expected goals + assists (xG + xAG) in a game, comparing matches where Trent Alexander-Arnold played (blue) to those where he didn’t (red).
The chart separates Mohamed Salah’s performances into two groups based on whether Trent Alexander-Arnold played at least 60 minutes.
On the left, we see matches where Trent was on the pitch (blue).
On the right, matches where he was either absent or played less than 60 minutes (red).
On the left, we see matches where Trent was on the pitch (blue).
On the right, matches where he was either absent or played less than 60 minutes (red).
April 13, 2025 at 12:51 PM
The chart separates Mohamed Salah’s performances into two groups based on whether Trent Alexander-Arnold played at least 60 minutes.
On the left, we see matches where Trent was on the pitch (blue).
On the right, matches where he was either absent or played less than 60 minutes (red).
On the left, we see matches where Trent was on the pitch (blue).
On the right, matches where he was either absent or played less than 60 minutes (red).
The chart plots Salah’s expected goals + assists per game across his appearances, split by whether Trent Alexander-Arnold played at least 60 minutes (blue) or not (red). Each point represents a single match, and the trend lines illustrate the average trajectory in each scenario.
April 13, 2025 at 12:51 PM
The chart plots Salah’s expected goals + assists per game across his appearances, split by whether Trent Alexander-Arnold played at least 60 minutes (blue) or not (red). Each point represents a single match, and the trend lines illustrate the average trajectory in each scenario.
Trent initiates progression, and Salah benefits. The more Trent plays those forward balls, the more Salah receives them—fueling chances, touches in key areas, and ultimately, goals and assists.
April 13, 2025 at 12:51 PM
Trent initiates progression, and Salah benefits. The more Trent plays those forward balls, the more Salah receives them—fueling chances, touches in key areas, and ultimately, goals and assists.
If a style change leads to all players running less then it would make sense. If a style change only leads to one player running 1km less then it probably means that Salah is saving himself while the others are covering for him. I don't have that data so can't confirm.
April 13, 2025 at 12:45 PM
If a style change leads to all players running less then it would make sense. If a style change only leads to one player running 1km less then it probably means that Salah is saving himself while the others are covering for him. I don't have that data so can't confirm.
If you split this up into 6 seasons (19/20 - 24/25) you can see he starts at 9.75km/90 and has slowly declined to 8.75km/90. I don't think a 1km decline is purely down to possession focus. Plus Slot is probably not as intense as Klopp but he is still very intense.
April 12, 2025 at 8:00 PM
If you split this up into 6 seasons (19/20 - 24/25) you can see he starts at 9.75km/90 and has slowly declined to 8.75km/90. I don't think a 1km decline is purely down to possession focus. Plus Slot is probably not as intense as Klopp but he is still very intense.
Hmmm I disagree. The way I'm interpreting this is that he's covering less distance so that when he needs to sprint he's able to keep the same level of intensity + the same amount of volume.
April 12, 2025 at 8:00 PM
Hmmm I disagree. The way I'm interpreting this is that he's covering less distance so that when he needs to sprint he's able to keep the same level of intensity + the same amount of volume.
If he's running less then there's clearly a sign of physical decline right? He's saving himself for moments. Kind of like Messi and Ronaldo did later on.
April 12, 2025 at 7:45 PM
If he's running less then there's clearly a sign of physical decline right? He's saving himself for moments. Kind of like Messi and Ronaldo did later on.
More here: tchatoor.substack.com/p/can-penalt...
April 4, 2025 at 4:29 PM
More here: tchatoor.substack.com/p/can-penalt...
Full post here: tchatoor.substack.com/p/the-mo-sal...
The Mo Salah Conundrum
The Puzzle of Liverpool’s Contract Dilemma, Analyzed Through the Data For and Against His Renewal
tchatoor.substack.com
March 25, 2025 at 3:14 PM
Full post here: tchatoor.substack.com/p/the-mo-sal...
Other than Ibrahimovic no 33/34 year old crosses 20 np-G&A in the EPL.
None of the players on this list were prolific in the EPL after 32.
With AFCON, 2026 World Cup + physical nature of EPL this contract decision is not as simple as "give him what he wants."
None of the players on this list were prolific in the EPL after 32.
With AFCON, 2026 World Cup + physical nature of EPL this contract decision is not as simple as "give him what he wants."
March 25, 2025 at 3:14 PM
Other than Ibrahimovic no 33/34 year old crosses 20 np-G&A in the EPL.
None of the players on this list were prolific in the EPL after 32.
With AFCON, 2026 World Cup + physical nature of EPL this contract decision is not as simple as "give him what he wants."
None of the players on this list were prolific in the EPL after 32.
With AFCON, 2026 World Cup + physical nature of EPL this contract decision is not as simple as "give him what he wants."
Only Ronaldo, Totti and Lewandowski cross 20 non-penalty G&A at age 35 in a top 5 league.
March 25, 2025 at 3:14 PM
Only Ronaldo, Totti and Lewandowski cross 20 non-penalty G&A at age 35 in a top 5 league.
However, projecting productivity beyond a two-year contract extension becomes increasingly challenging, as the pool of comparable players significantly narrows. By age 35, most elite players have either moved to less competitive leagues—like Messi transitioning to MLS—or retired.
March 25, 2025 at 3:14 PM
However, projecting productivity beyond a two-year contract extension becomes increasingly challenging, as the pool of comparable players significantly narrows. By age 35, most elite players have either moved to less competitive leagues—like Messi transitioning to MLS—or retired.
This historical benchmark strongly suggests Salah can sustain elite-level productivity over the next two years, underscoring why Liverpool faces a particularly challenging decision with his contract extension.
March 25, 2025 at 3:14 PM
This historical benchmark strongly suggests Salah can sustain elite-level productivity over the next two years, underscoring why Liverpool faces a particularly challenging decision with his contract extension.
Here are some historical comps of 32-34 year olds in the top 5 leagues.
Di Natale, Robben, Ronaldo, Aspas, Vardy, Benzema, Messi, Suarez, Lewandowski like Salah, produced more than 20 non-penalty goals and assists at the age of 32 and went on to do well.
Di Natale, Robben, Ronaldo, Aspas, Vardy, Benzema, Messi, Suarez, Lewandowski like Salah, produced more than 20 non-penalty goals and assists at the age of 32 and went on to do well.
March 25, 2025 at 3:14 PM
Here are some historical comps of 32-34 year olds in the top 5 leagues.
Di Natale, Robben, Ronaldo, Aspas, Vardy, Benzema, Messi, Suarez, Lewandowski like Salah, produced more than 20 non-penalty goals and assists at the age of 32 and went on to do well.
Di Natale, Robben, Ronaldo, Aspas, Vardy, Benzema, Messi, Suarez, Lewandowski like Salah, produced more than 20 non-penalty goals and assists at the age of 32 and went on to do well.
Thus, the Mohamed Salah contract scenario stands apart as Liverpool’s toughest recent negotiation, far exceeding the complexity posed by Firmino or Mane. The club now faces a high-stakes puzzle: balancing Salah’s undeniable value against long-term financial prudence.
March 25, 2025 at 3:14 PM
Thus, the Mohamed Salah contract scenario stands apart as Liverpool’s toughest recent negotiation, far exceeding the complexity posed by Firmino or Mane. The club now faces a high-stakes puzzle: balancing Salah’s undeniable value against long-term financial prudence.
Mo Salah on the other hand has performed consistently, in line with what's expected of him given his age and previous production. He is a consistent output machine.
He has over-performed this year and was last signed to an extension after an over-performance in 21-22.
He has over-performed this year and was last signed to an extension after an over-performance in 21-22.
March 25, 2025 at 3:14 PM
Mo Salah on the other hand has performed consistently, in line with what's expected of him given his age and previous production. He is a consistent output machine.
He has over-performed this year and was last signed to an extension after an over-performance in 21-22.
He has over-performed this year and was last signed to an extension after an over-performance in 21-22.
Mane and Firmino had both been in decline prior to when LFC let them leave.
Both should have done a lot better given their age and previous production but didn't.
Letting Firmino walk and selling Mane to Bayern were easy decisions.
Both should have done a lot better given their age and previous production but didn't.
Letting Firmino walk and selling Mane to Bayern were easy decisions.
March 25, 2025 at 3:14 PM
Mane and Firmino had both been in decline prior to when LFC let them leave.
Both should have done a lot better given their age and previous production but didn't.
Letting Firmino walk and selling Mane to Bayern were easy decisions.
Both should have done a lot better given their age and previous production but didn't.
Letting Firmino walk and selling Mane to Bayern were easy decisions.