Tim de Silva
@timdesilva.me
Economist at Stanford GSB and @siepr.bsky.social | Avid Racer
Website: www.timdesilva.me
Website: www.timdesilva.me
Pinned
Tim de Silva
@timdesilva.me
· Apr 23
https://www.youtube.com/live/TXv1-eH-icY?si=ujNMp_Q_a86DTQNL&t=22424
t.co
Curious about belief formation in the presence of fat tails?
Check out my new paper (with several great co-authors) that we presented at the NBER Behavioral Finance Meeting: t.co/79oNjGkHJv
Paper: timhdesilva.github.io/files/papers...
Thanks @profstefannagel.bsky.social for a great discussion!
Check out my new paper (with several great co-authors) that we presented at the NBER Behavioral Finance Meeting: t.co/79oNjGkHJv
Paper: timhdesilva.github.io/files/papers...
Thanks @profstefannagel.bsky.social for a great discussion!
Reposted by Tim de Silva
#QJE Nov 2025, #7, “Insurance Versus Moral Hazard in Income-Contingent Student Loan Repayment,” by Tim de Silva (@timdesilva.me): doi.org/10.1093/qje/...
Insurance Versus Moral Hazard in Income-Contingent Student Loan Repayment*
Abstract. Student loans with income-contingent repayment insure borrowers against income risk but can reduce their incentives to earn more. Using a change
doi.org
October 12, 2025 at 12:30 AM
#QJE Nov 2025, #7, “Insurance Versus Moral Hazard in Income-Contingent Student Loan Repayment,” by Tim de Silva (@timdesilva.me): doi.org/10.1093/qje/...
Reposted by Tim de Silva
Recently accepted by #QJE, “Insurance Versus Moral Hazard in Income-Contingent Student Loan Repayment,” by Tim de Silva (@timdesilva.me): doi.org/10.1093/qje/...
Insurance Versus Moral Hazard in Income-Contingent Student Loan Repayment*
Abstract. Student loans with income-contingent repayment insure borrowers against income risk but can reduce their incentives to earn more. Using a change
doi.org
August 10, 2025 at 8:36 PM
Recently accepted by #QJE, “Insurance Versus Moral Hazard in Income-Contingent Student Loan Repayment,” by Tim de Silva (@timdesilva.me): doi.org/10.1093/qje/...
Reposted by Tim de Silva
A study of expectations formation when the underlying process has thick tails, from @timdesilva.me, Eugene Larsen-Hallock, Adam Rej, and David Thesmar https://www.nber.org/papers/w33808
May 23, 2025 at 1:00 PM
A study of expectations formation when the underlying process has thick tails, from @timdesilva.me, Eugene Larsen-Hallock, Adam Rej, and David Thesmar https://www.nber.org/papers/w33808
This is awesome!
Editing our writing is a common academic task. I *hate* how spell/grammar checks annoy me by thinking proper nouns or LaTeX code are misspellings (yes, I want `` ''). I also want *style* tips like a good editor would give me. Problem solved. 1/5
June 13, 2025 at 4:21 AM
This is awesome!
New paper on belief formation in a world with “fat” tails!
Check out my recent NBER presentation here: www.youtube.com/live/TXv1-eH...
Ungated link: www.timdesilva.me/files/papers...
Check out my recent NBER presentation here: www.youtube.com/live/TXv1-eH...
Ungated link: www.timdesilva.me/files/papers...
May 26, 2025 at 2:24 PM
New paper on belief formation in a world with “fat” tails!
Check out my recent NBER presentation here: www.youtube.com/live/TXv1-eH...
Ungated link: www.timdesilva.me/files/papers...
Check out my recent NBER presentation here: www.youtube.com/live/TXv1-eH...
Ungated link: www.timdesilva.me/files/papers...
Reposted by Tim de Silva
Just released: Results from the largest-ever experiment on social media and emotional health by SIEPR's Hunt Allcott and Matthew Gentzkow.
Here's what they found: www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Here's what they found: www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Opinion | Could a social media detox improve our well-being?
We conducted the largest-ever experiment on social media and emotional health. Here’s what we found.
www.washingtonpost.com
April 23, 2025 at 10:47 PM
Just released: Results from the largest-ever experiment on social media and emotional health by SIEPR's Hunt Allcott and Matthew Gentzkow.
Here's what they found: www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Here's what they found: www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Curious about belief formation in the presence of fat tails?
Check out my new paper (with several great co-authors) that we presented at the NBER Behavioral Finance Meeting: t.co/79oNjGkHJv
Paper: timhdesilva.github.io/files/papers...
Thanks @profstefannagel.bsky.social for a great discussion!
Check out my new paper (with several great co-authors) that we presented at the NBER Behavioral Finance Meeting: t.co/79oNjGkHJv
Paper: timhdesilva.github.io/files/papers...
Thanks @profstefannagel.bsky.social for a great discussion!
https://www.youtube.com/live/TXv1-eH-icY?si=ujNMp_Q_a86DTQNL&t=22424
t.co
April 23, 2025 at 3:27 PM
Curious about belief formation in the presence of fat tails?
Check out my new paper (with several great co-authors) that we presented at the NBER Behavioral Finance Meeting: t.co/79oNjGkHJv
Paper: timhdesilva.github.io/files/papers...
Thanks @profstefannagel.bsky.social for a great discussion!
Check out my new paper (with several great co-authors) that we presented at the NBER Behavioral Finance Meeting: t.co/79oNjGkHJv
Paper: timhdesilva.github.io/files/papers...
Thanks @profstefannagel.bsky.social for a great discussion!
Reposted by Tim de Silva
rodneywhitecenter.wharton.upenn.edu/2025-summer-...
12 more days to apply to our summer school in structural estimation! It's a hands-on course in which you learn how to do SMM and then work on a problem set with your classmates. Open to PhD students in finance, accounting, econ. And faculty.
12 more days to apply to our summer school in structural estimation! It's a hands-on course in which you learn how to do SMM and then work on a problem set with your classmates. Open to PhD students in finance, accounting, econ. And faculty.
2025 Summer School on Structural Estimation in Corporate Finance
rodneywhitecenter.wharton.upenn.edu
March 5, 2025 at 2:13 PM
rodneywhitecenter.wharton.upenn.edu/2025-summer-...
12 more days to apply to our summer school in structural estimation! It's a hands-on course in which you learn how to do SMM and then work on a problem set with your classmates. Open to PhD students in finance, accounting, econ. And faculty.
12 more days to apply to our summer school in structural estimation! It's a hands-on course in which you learn how to do SMM and then work on a problem set with your classmates. Open to PhD students in finance, accounting, econ. And faculty.
Reposted by Tim de Silva
New paper: "Rushing to Judgement and the Banking Crisis of 2023"
At the two-year anniversary of the crisis, Jonathan Rose and I present 7 facts that are overlooked in the standard account of the crisis: www.chicagofed.org/publications...
At the two-year anniversary of the crisis, Jonathan Rose and I present 7 facts that are overlooked in the standard account of the crisis: www.chicagofed.org/publications...
March 4, 2025 at 8:23 PM
New paper: "Rushing to Judgement and the Banking Crisis of 2023"
At the two-year anniversary of the crisis, Jonathan Rose and I present 7 facts that are overlooked in the standard account of the crisis: www.chicagofed.org/publications...
At the two-year anniversary of the crisis, Jonathan Rose and I present 7 facts that are overlooked in the standard account of the crisis: www.chicagofed.org/publications...
Great paper! I find the theoretical framework to be a really elegant way of seeing a lot of results in the literature in one place
A review of the growing field investigating how the broad organization of financial markets affects the level and dynamics of asset prices, from Valentin Haddad and Tyler Muir https://www.nber.org/papers/w33434
February 9, 2025 at 1:27 AM
Great paper! I find the theoretical framework to be a really elegant way of seeing a lot of results in the literature in one place
Reposted by Tim de Silva
"It’s vital that we preserve our reputation for rigor. We’ll fail more often than we succeed. But when we are successful, we will have played a critical role in advancing good economic policy. For me, that’s something worth striving for," writes SIEPR Director @nealemahoney.bsky.social. Full piece ↘️
Inspired by @bencasselman.bsky.social's Friday article, I wrote a piece on how we can find our way back from the wilderness
Summary is we need to better complement our aptitude for shooting down bad policy with an ability to lift up good economic policy proposals
open.substack.com/pub/nealemah...
Summary is we need to better complement our aptitude for shooting down bad policy with an ability to lift up good economic policy proposals
open.substack.com/pub/nealemah...
Economists as coalition-builders
Thoughts on how our profession can find our way back from the wilderness
open.substack.com
January 16, 2025 at 7:29 PM
"It’s vital that we preserve our reputation for rigor. We’ll fail more often than we succeed. But when we are successful, we will have played a critical role in advancing good economic policy. For me, that’s something worth striving for," writes SIEPR Director @nealemahoney.bsky.social. Full piece ↘️
Reposted by Tim de Silva
Delighted to receive the Journal of Finance DFA First Prize for "Selling Fast and Buying Slow: Heuristics and Trading Performance of Institutional Investors"
We show that behavioral econ findings not limited to the lab, they show up amongst the most sophisticated market participants.
We show that behavioral econ findings not limited to the lab, they show up amongst the most sophisticated market participants.
Selling Fast and Buying Slow: Heuristics and Trading Performance of Institutional Investors
Are market experts prone to heuristics, and if so, do they transfer across closely related domains—buying and selling? We investigate this question using a uniq
papers.ssrn.com
January 5, 2025 at 3:50 PM
Delighted to receive the Journal of Finance DFA First Prize for "Selling Fast and Buying Slow: Heuristics and Trading Performance of Institutional Investors"
We show that behavioral econ findings not limited to the lab, they show up amongst the most sophisticated market participants.
We show that behavioral econ findings not limited to the lab, they show up amongst the most sophisticated market participants.
Reposted by Tim de Silva
A fantastic resource for those interested in the cutting edge of policy-relevant economics research. 👇
This morning in @briefingbook.bsky.social, some policy-relevant sessions to consider attending if you’re going to be at ASSA later this week/looking up papers from later if you’re not, plus a couple panels you can stream www.briefingbook.info/p/quick-hits...
Quick hits: Policy-relevant research at ASSA 2025
Weeks of it, packed into three days
www.briefingbook.info
December 30, 2024 at 3:15 PM
A fantastic resource for those interested in the cutting edge of policy-relevant economics research. 👇
Love this paper! Great example of how a null result can be super informative from both a positive and normative standpoint.
Recently accepted by #QJE, “The Effects of Medical Debt Relief: Evidence from Two Randomized Experiments,” by Kluender, Mahoney (@nealemahoney.bsky.social), Wong (@francisawong.bsky.social), and Yin: doi.org/10.1093/qje/...
The Effects of Medical Debt Relief: Evidence from Two Randomized Experiments*
Abstract. Two in five Americans have medical debt, nearly half of whom owe at least $2,500. Concerned by this burden, governments and private donors have u
doi.org
December 29, 2024 at 12:57 AM
Love this paper! Great example of how a null result can be super informative from both a positive and normative standpoint.
Reposted by Tim de Silva
this abstract is INSANE
December 28, 2024 at 1:04 PM
this abstract is INSANE
Reposted by Tim de Silva
This slowly dawned on me during my PhD - it was by being at seminars or conferences where I could see the true debate behind a paper and what people thought its contribution and flaws were, not by reading the published version.
Science would be better served if everyone could see these debates
Science would be better served if everyone could see these debates
This is bad for the scientific record.
Relatedly, the only people who know the interesting debates are people who get the backstory privately from insiders.
This arrangement favors the better connected.
2/
Relatedly, the only people who know the interesting debates are people who get the backstory privately from insiders.
This arrangement favors the better connected.
2/
December 24, 2024 at 5:00 PM
This slowly dawned on me during my PhD - it was by being at seminars or conferences where I could see the true debate behind a paper and what people thought its contribution and flaws were, not by reading the published version.
Science would be better served if everyone could see these debates
Science would be better served if everyone could see these debates
Reposted by Tim de Silva
My economist husband spent the last couple days, jubilantly stating “Saturday the holidays begin! Vacation starts! No more work!” This morning he woke up excited: “no work today!!” He is now making slides for an intro trade class that doesn’t exist “for fun! This isn’t work!!”
December 21, 2024 at 12:49 PM
My economist husband spent the last couple days, jubilantly stating “Saturday the holidays begin! Vacation starts! No more work!” This morning he woke up excited: “no work today!!” He is now making slides for an intro trade class that doesn’t exist “for fun! This isn’t work!!”
Reposted by Tim de Silva
December 21, 2024 at 3:02 PM
Love this paper, helps me think through a lot of things these days in the real economy and financial markets!
Why do we dislike inflation?
This paper for @brookingsinst.bsky.social revisits this long-standing question, already asked by Robert Shiller in 1997, with current data and survey methods. Some key findings:🧵 1/10 socialeconomicslab.org/research/pub...
This paper for @brookingsinst.bsky.social revisits this long-standing question, already asked by Robert Shiller in 1997, with current data and survey methods. Some key findings:🧵 1/10 socialeconomicslab.org/research/pub...
Why do We Dislike Inflation? - Social Economics Lab
This paper provides new evidence on a long-standing question asked by Shiller (1997): Why do we dislike inflation? I conducted two surveys on representative samples of the US population to elicit peop...
socialeconomicslab.org
December 5, 2024 at 4:29 PM
Love this paper, helps me think through a lot of things these days in the real economy and financial markets!
I like the point here that the shift from manufacturing to services is important for understanding the election!
December 5, 2024 at 4:24 PM
I like the point here that the shift from manufacturing to services is important for understanding the election!
Reposted by Tim de Silva
With the holiday season upon us, SIEPR reflects on those who make our community special. We are thrilled to share our new batch of Why Econ profiles, which showcase researchers and students and why they have chosen to examine the world and make an impact through the prism of economics. To start...
December 3, 2024 at 10:03 PM
With the holiday season upon us, SIEPR reflects on those who make our community special. We are thrilled to share our new batch of Why Econ profiles, which showcase researchers and students and why they have chosen to examine the world and make an impact through the prism of economics. To start...
Such a great conference, sad I can’t make it this year!
I am super excited for the FRA this weekend (and honored to help put it together):
fraconference.com/current-prog...
One of my most favorite features is the early ideas session on Sunday afternoon. Always interesting & great interaction between authors and audience.
fraconference.com/current-prog...
One of my most favorite features is the early ideas session on Sunday afternoon. Always interesting & great interaction between authors and audience.
Current Program – FRA
fraconference.com
December 4, 2024 at 4:02 AM
Such a great conference, sad I can’t make it this year!
Reposted by Tim de Silva
Can you guess what happens when a Walmart Supercenter enters a community?
...
...
...
◾EITC receipts in the community increase
◾ workers' incomes go down
as a direct result.
"Walmart Supercenters gradually accumulate and exercise monopsony power, with negative consequences for workers."
...
...
...
◾EITC receipts in the community increase
◾ workers' incomes go down
as a direct result.
"Walmart Supercenters gradually accumulate and exercise monopsony power, with negative consequences for workers."
December 1, 2024 at 3:26 AM
Can you guess what happens when a Walmart Supercenter enters a community?
...
...
...
◾EITC receipts in the community increase
◾ workers' incomes go down
as a direct result.
"Walmart Supercenters gradually accumulate and exercise monopsony power, with negative consequences for workers."
...
...
...
◾EITC receipts in the community increase
◾ workers' incomes go down
as a direct result.
"Walmart Supercenters gradually accumulate and exercise monopsony power, with negative consequences for workers."
Reposted by Tim de Silva
I’m always struck that the people repeating the bogus “60% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck” stat never follow it up with any proposals to increase the savings rate.
www.slowboring.com/p/this-econo...
www.slowboring.com/p/this-econo...
This economic myth needs to go away
Sixty percent of Americans are not struggling to get by
www.slowboring.com
December 1, 2024 at 4:27 AM
I’m always struck that the people repeating the bogus “60% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck” stat never follow it up with any proposals to increase the savings rate.
www.slowboring.com/p/this-econo...
www.slowboring.com/p/this-econo...