Steven Kelly
@stevenkelly49.bsky.social
Financial crises & how to fight them. [email protected]
Substacking on financial stability topics at www.withoutwarningresearch.com (free)
Substacking on financial stability topics at www.withoutwarningresearch.com (free)
Pinned
New paper: "Rushing to Judgement and the Banking Crisis of 2023"
At the two-year anniversary of the crisis, Jonathan Rose and I present 7 facts that are overlooked in the standard account of the crisis: www.chicagofed.org/publications...
At the two-year anniversary of the crisis, Jonathan Rose and I present 7 facts that are overlooked in the standard account of the crisis: www.chicagofed.org/publications...
"But it’s not often remarked that ordinary Americans have already — and for years — been buying vast amounts of complex exposure to private equity risk.
"They’ve just been doing so (without realising it) through their boring old life cover and fixed annuities."
"They’ve just been doing so (without realising it) through their boring old life cover and fixed annuities."
🚨 How exactly *do* PE, private credit, and insurance intersect?
Took some time, but here it is:
on.ft.com/4kd077o
Took some time, but here it is:
on.ft.com/4kd077o
Inside the private equity-insurance nexus
When the world’s dullest industry gets very exciting
on.ft.com
July 10, 2025 at 11:48 PM
"But it’s not often remarked that ordinary Americans have already — and for years — been buying vast amounts of complex exposure to private equity risk.
"They’ve just been doing so (without realising it) through their boring old life cover and fixed annuities."
"They’ve just been doing so (without realising it) through their boring old life cover and fixed annuities."
"All in all, 'democratising' access to private credit may undermine the very features that have sustained its growth."
New BIS Bulletin out!
“Retail investors in private credit”, with S Doerr & K Todorov, taking stock of the push pf PC towards retail, with a focus on BDCs & ETFs, & drawing implications
www.bis.org/publ/bisbull...
“Retail investors in private credit”, with S Doerr & K Todorov, taking stock of the push pf PC towards retail, with a focus on BDCs & ETFs, & drawing implications
www.bis.org/publ/bisbull...
Retail investors in private credit
Private credit is poised for wider participation from retail investors through the rapid growth of business development companies and, more recently, private credit exchange-traded funds (ETFs). ETFs ...
www.bis.org
July 9, 2025 at 5:12 PM
"All in all, 'democratising' access to private credit may undermine the very features that have sustained its growth."
Reposted by Steven Kelly
The next must-have accessory for crypto and tech bros is far less sexy than a Lamborghini — it’s a banking license. But Circle, Erebor, Ripple and others will be too tied to hyper-volatile sectors, just like Silicon Valley Bank in 2023. Via @opinion.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Crypto, Startups and Banking Make a Scary Mix
Circle, Erebor and others look like they could run straight toward the Silicon Valley Bank trap.
www.bloomberg.com
July 7, 2025 at 7:52 AM
The next must-have accessory for crypto and tech bros is far less sexy than a Lamborghini — it’s a banking license. But Circle, Erebor, Ripple and others will be too tied to hyper-volatile sectors, just like Silicon Valley Bank in 2023. Via @opinion.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Reposted by Steven Kelly
Smart insights in here from @stevenkelly49.bsky.social who co-authored a great working paper this year on the 2023 mini-crisis. For a quick, deeper dive into that, i'd recommend his pod interview with @marcruby.bsky.social [subscription req'd] > www.netinterest.co/p/silicon-va...
July 7, 2025 at 8:04 AM
Smart insights in here from @stevenkelly49.bsky.social who co-authored a great working paper this year on the 2023 mini-crisis. For a quick, deeper dive into that, i'd recommend his pod interview with @marcruby.bsky.social [subscription req'd] > www.netinterest.co/p/silicon-va...
A guest spot over at Odd Lots:
"When Should We Care About Unrealized Bank Losses?"
"When Should We Care About Unrealized Bank Losses?"
When Should We Care About Unrealized Bank Losses?
What really happened in 2023?
www.bloomberg.com
June 26, 2025 at 6:24 PM
A guest spot over at Odd Lots:
"When Should We Care About Unrealized Bank Losses?"
"When Should We Care About Unrealized Bank Losses?"
"Yale Program on Financial Stability Presents Financial Crisis-Fighting Playbook"
Yale Program on Financial Stability Presents Financial Crisis-Fighting Playbook
This year, the program will conclude the New Bagehot Project, an unprecedented, decade-long effort to chronicle and analyze responses to financial crises throughout history and around the world, and s...
som.yale.edu
June 25, 2025 at 3:29 PM
"Yale Program on Financial Stability Presents Financial Crisis-Fighting Playbook"
JPM’s Naveen Mallela: “From an institutional standpoint, deposit tokens are a superior alternative to stablecoins. Because they are based on fractional banking, we think it is more scalable.”
JPMorgan to Pilot Deposit Token JPMD on Coinbase-Linked Blockchain
JPMorgan Chase & Co. will launch a pilot for a token called JPMD that represents dollar deposits at the world’s biggest bank, as financial institutions deepen their push into the digital-asset sec...
www.bloomberg.com
June 24, 2025 at 12:50 AM
JPM’s Naveen Mallela: “From an institutional standpoint, deposit tokens are a superior alternative to stablecoins. Because they are based on fractional banking, we think it is more scalable.”
Reposted by Steven Kelly
Smart, interesting stuff here from @stevenkelly49.bsky.social on stable coins and links with money markets/bills. (The quote below is a digression but a v important one IMO!)
open.substack.com/pub/withoutw...
open.substack.com/pub/withoutw...
The Financial Stability Implications of Each Possible Stablecoin Reserves Model
There's always something
open.substack.com
June 16, 2025 at 12:45 PM
Smart, interesting stuff here from @stevenkelly49.bsky.social on stable coins and links with money markets/bills. (The quote below is a digression but a v important one IMO!)
open.substack.com/pub/withoutw...
open.substack.com/pub/withoutw...
New, short note: "The Financial Stability Implications of Each Possible Stablecoin Reserves Model"
The Financial Stability Implications of Each Possible Stablecoin Reserves Model
There's always something
www.withoutwarningresearch.com
June 15, 2025 at 8:55 PM
New, short note: "The Financial Stability Implications of Each Possible Stablecoin Reserves Model"
"Ad Hoc Emergency Liquidity Assistance in the 21st Century: Necessary, but Never Sufficient"
Our recent paper (w/ Vincient Arnold, Greg Feldberg, and Andrew Metrick) is now out as a policy brief with the European Money & Finance Forum:
www.suerf.org/publications...
Our recent paper (w/ Vincient Arnold, Greg Feldberg, and Andrew Metrick) is now out as a policy brief with the European Money & Finance Forum:
www.suerf.org/publications...
June 13, 2025 at 5:16 PM
"Ad Hoc Emergency Liquidity Assistance in the 21st Century: Necessary, but Never Sufficient"
Our recent paper (w/ Vincient Arnold, Greg Feldberg, and Andrew Metrick) is now out as a policy brief with the European Money & Finance Forum:
www.suerf.org/publications...
Our recent paper (w/ Vincient Arnold, Greg Feldberg, and Andrew Metrick) is now out as a policy brief with the European Money & Finance Forum:
www.suerf.org/publications...
Bank CFOs describing the Great Bank Re-Tranche phenomenon perfectly:
June 13, 2025 at 2:05 AM
Bank CFOs describing the Great Bank Re-Tranche phenomenon perfectly:
Reposted by Steven Kelly
Expanding financing has allowed banks to benefit from these trends
The pivot reflects a broader industry trend that ppl like
@stevenkelly49.bsky.social + Huw van Steenis have dubbed the "re-tranching" of the banking system post 2008
This has seen banks act more as financiers than investors
The pivot reflects a broader industry trend that ppl like
@stevenkelly49.bsky.social + Huw van Steenis have dubbed the "re-tranching" of the banking system post 2008
This has seen banks act more as financiers than investors
June 9, 2025 at 1:07 PM
Expanding financing has allowed banks to benefit from these trends
The pivot reflects a broader industry trend that ppl like
@stevenkelly49.bsky.social + Huw van Steenis have dubbed the "re-tranching" of the banking system post 2008
This has seen banks act more as financiers than investors
The pivot reflects a broader industry trend that ppl like
@stevenkelly49.bsky.social + Huw van Steenis have dubbed the "re-tranching" of the banking system post 2008
This has seen banks act more as financiers than investors
Reposted by Steven Kelly
NEW: How Goldman Sachs turned financing into a $9bn powerhouse
Goldman's financing revenues now outstrip investment banking fees after >doubling since 2020
Profile of how the age-old business of lending money is transforming the investment bank 🧵
www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...
Goldman's financing revenues now outstrip investment banking fees after >doubling since 2020
Profile of how the age-old business of lending money is transforming the investment bank 🧵
www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...
How Goldman Sachs turned financing into a US$9bn powerhouse | IFR
People & Markets
Heady growth means financing now generates more revenue than investment banking
www.ifre.com
June 9, 2025 at 10:47 AM
NEW: How Goldman Sachs turned financing into a $9bn powerhouse
Goldman's financing revenues now outstrip investment banking fees after >doubling since 2020
Profile of how the age-old business of lending money is transforming the investment bank 🧵
www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...
Goldman's financing revenues now outstrip investment banking fees after >doubling since 2020
Profile of how the age-old business of lending money is transforming the investment bank 🧵
www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...
Episode # 10000000 of “There’s a reason we have banks and structure them the way we do”
June 1, 2025 at 8:58 PM
Episode # 10000000 of “There’s a reason we have banks and structure them the way we do”
A new FDIC disclosure shows the text of its 2023 "systemic risk exception" board resolution to rescue the SVB/Signature uninsured depositors.
As noted below, the resolution included First Republic, which wasn't ultimately closed for another 6 weeks:
As noted below, the resolution included First Republic, which wasn't ultimately closed for another 6 weeks:
May 22, 2025 at 1:42 AM
A new FDIC disclosure shows the text of its 2023 "systemic risk exception" board resolution to rescue the SVB/Signature uninsured depositors.
As noted below, the resolution included First Republic, which wasn't ultimately closed for another 6 weeks:
As noted below, the resolution included First Republic, which wasn't ultimately closed for another 6 weeks:
Bloomberg "suffered widespread disruption on Wednesday morning that prevented traders from accessing live pricing and pushed back UK and EU sovereign debt auctions."
May 21, 2025 at 9:30 PM
Bloomberg "suffered widespread disruption on Wednesday morning that prevented traders from accessing live pricing and pushed back UK and EU sovereign debt auctions."
"What Has Changed Since Silicon Valley Bank Collapsed? Not Much."
What Has Changed Since Silicon Valley Bank Collapsed? Not Much.
www.nytimes.com
May 17, 2025 at 5:05 PM
"What Has Changed Since Silicon Valley Bank Collapsed? Not Much."
Brazil's central bank (BCB) has announced swap agreement w/ the PBoC.
But, not to lose any friends, the press release specifically mentions also having access to the Fed's FIMA facility, "which allows the BCB to access US dollars through a repo operation."
Translated:
But, not to lose any friends, the press release specifically mentions also having access to the Fed's FIMA facility, "which allows the BCB to access US dollars through a repo operation."
Translated:
May 13, 2025 at 6:46 PM
Brazil's central bank (BCB) has announced swap agreement w/ the PBoC.
But, not to lose any friends, the press release specifically mentions also having access to the Fed's FIMA facility, "which allows the BCB to access US dollars through a repo operation."
Translated:
But, not to lose any friends, the press release specifically mentions also having access to the Fed's FIMA facility, "which allows the BCB to access US dollars through a repo operation."
Translated:
Credit Suisse was a bank from which a thousand case studies will bloom.
Now out in the Journal of Financial Crises—with Jack French and Owen Heaphy—we take a look at the Swiss government's emergency liquidity assistance, which Credit Suisse drew on for over $180 billion:
Now out in the Journal of Financial Crises—with Jack French and Owen Heaphy—we take a look at the Swiss government's emergency liquidity assistance, which Credit Suisse drew on for over $180 billion:
Switzerland: Credit Suisse Emergency Liquidity Program, 2023
Credit Suisse (CS) faced multiple challenges leading up to March 2023 including a significant outflow of client funds in the fourth quarter of 2022 and reputational loss resulting from a number of sca...
elischolar.library.yale.edu
May 13, 2025 at 1:49 AM
Credit Suisse was a bank from which a thousand case studies will bloom.
Now out in the Journal of Financial Crises—with Jack French and Owen Heaphy—we take a look at the Swiss government's emergency liquidity assistance, which Credit Suisse drew on for over $180 billion:
Now out in the Journal of Financial Crises—with Jack French and Owen Heaphy—we take a look at the Swiss government's emergency liquidity assistance, which Credit Suisse drew on for over $180 billion:
There are three certainties in life: death, taxes, and Credit Suisse somehow avoiding both
Credit Suisse to pay $511mn over helping wealthy Americans hide more than $4bn
https://www.ft.com/content/be5af5b4-8008-47b9-8a9b-3b368f08ddf3
https://www.ft.com/content/be5af5b4-8008-47b9-8a9b-3b368f08ddf3
Credit Suisse to pay $511mn over helping wealthy Americans hide more than $4bn
Swiss bank admits it violated previous deal with the US justice department
www.ft.com
May 6, 2025 at 7:20 AM
There are three certainties in life: death, taxes, and Credit Suisse somehow avoiding both
“The secondary market will hit record levels this year with deal volume in the range of $162 billion to $182 billion as private markets continue to expand and LPs look for liquidity, according to Evercore Inc. That’s expected to lure increased capital…”
Apollo Raises $5.4 Billion Fund for Secondhand Private Equity
Apollo Global Management Inc. raised about $5.4 billion for a vehicle that enables investors to cash out of private funds early, spurred by a sluggish dealmaking climate.
www.bloomberg.com
May 3, 2025 at 7:02 PM
“The secondary market will hit record levels this year with deal volume in the range of $162 billion to $182 billion as private markets continue to expand and LPs look for liquidity, according to Evercore Inc. That’s expected to lure increased capital…”
Reposted by Steven Kelly
Trump's tariff and Powell attack retreats have calmed markets, but if things go off the rails again, here's what a range of experts believe will be the central bank toolkit to tame disorderly markets.
Analysts game out use of Fed toolkit if market needs central bank's help
Market participants unsettled by the Trump administration's choppy policy rollout are working to game out what the Federal Reserve would do if asset prices spiral out of control and require stabilization by the U.S. central bank.
www.reuters.com
April 24, 2025 at 5:06 PM
Trump's tariff and Powell attack retreats have calmed markets, but if things go off the rails again, here's what a range of experts believe will be the central bank toolkit to tame disorderly markets.
The IMF Global Financial Stability Report on the importance of the dollar swap lines, specifically for Europe:
April 24, 2025 at 1:56 AM
The IMF Global Financial Stability Report on the importance of the dollar swap lines, specifically for Europe: