Tom Barton
@tombarton.bsky.social
220 followers 210 following 34 posts
Post-Doc at King's PhD from Royal Holloway Poli Sci, Turnout and Electoral Integrity Now dabbling in interest groups on the ERC ADVODID project advodid.eu
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tombarton.bsky.social
📣Pub Alert! Here I causally identify (one of the only outside of the USA) a negative effect of a voter ID pilot scheme from 2018. This scheme was less restrictive than that used at the 2024 GE, implying a greater proportion of people were excluded from voting in June and a fairer system is needed.
cambup-polsci.cambridge.org
#OpenAccess from @psrm.bsky.social -

Understanding the impact of the 2018 voter ID pilots on turnout at the London local elections: A synthetic difference-in-difference approach - cup.org/420N1D4

"...more restrictive ID laws can meaningfully limit turnout..."

- @tombarton.bsky.social

#FirstView
Logo of Political Science Research and Methods in a stylized font with the grey letters "PS" and "RM" intertwined on a black background.
Reposted by Tom Barton
chanret.bsky.social
Time for an explainer on how to get funding for a PhD in the UK (1/n)
tombarton.bsky.social
Yes of course, and giving name and address was the system until 2023. The government have been very clear they would not revert to this, only expand the number of IDs that can be used.
tombarton.bsky.social
Florian is absolutely correct, I guess I would say that. Evidence suggests that we don't see depressive effects in Europe is because, unlike the UK and US, they have compulsory ID which is provided at low or zero cost. It can then have wider electoral benefits esp. with registration
Reposted by Tom Barton
polstudies.bsky.social
Do UK voters see a trade-off between electoral integrity and turnout? Jeffrey A. Karp argues that beliefs about fraud and ideology, not turnout concerns, best predict support for photo ID. Read OPEN ACCESS: buff.ly/r2FnjwH

@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com #polsky
tombarton.bsky.social
The paper if you missed it the first time round
cup.org/420N1D4
tombarton.bsky.social
Thank you Florian, and for your comments on an earlier version of it!
Reposted by Tom Barton
ralphscott.bsky.social
📣 CALLING ALL QUANT SOCIAL SCIENTISTS! 📣

Do you know of causally identified research that estimates the effect of higher education on political attitudes?

@elizabethsim0n.bsky.social and I are currently working on a meta-analysis on this question and we need your help!
tombarton.bsky.social
📣Pub Alert! Here I causally identify (one of the only outside of the USA) a negative effect of a voter ID pilot scheme from 2018. This scheme was less restrictive than that used at the 2024 GE, implying a greater proportion of people were excluded from voting in June and a fairer system is needed.
cambup-polsci.cambridge.org
#OpenAccess from @psrm.bsky.social -

Understanding the impact of the 2018 voter ID pilots on turnout at the London local elections: A synthetic difference-in-difference approach - cup.org/420N1D4

"...more restrictive ID laws can meaningfully limit turnout..."

- @tombarton.bsky.social

#FirstView
Logo of Political Science Research and Methods in a stylized font with the grey letters "PS" and "RM" intertwined on a black background.
Reposted by Tom Barton
hannahbunting.bsky.social
🚨 EPOP 2025 Call for papers now open! 🚨

Please fill out this form before the end of April to submit your paper proposal forms.office.com/e/4wBNMq4qwi

Accepting presentations on all aspects of elections, public opinion and parties using all methods.
Microsoft Forms
forms.office.com
tombarton.bsky.social
A very far cry indeed, it's genuinely wonderful to see hard work paying off like this, cardboard pizza boxes replacing cardboard dividers is the best part! Hopefully I'll get chance to return one day and see it for real, for all I know this could be a deep fake produced by 'Big Academia'.
tombarton.bsky.social
Reminds of when I was applying for my PhD on the advanced quantitative methods steer the ERSC had, one condition was to use big data, turns out big data ≈ have statistical power at the aggregate level
Reposted by Tom Barton
ralphscott.bsky.social
📣 NEW PAPER KLAXON 📣

"Who lacks voter identification? The electoral implications of the Elections Act 2022"

With Ed Fieldhouse, @caprosser.bsky.social, @jack-bailey.co.uk, @jonmellon.bsky.social (@britishelectionstudy.com)

Just published at Parliamentary Affairs:

academic.oup.com/pa/advance-a...
Title page of our new paper, the abstract for which reads:

The Elections Act 2022 requires voters to present photo identification at general elections in Great Britain and local elections in England. In this article, we use data from the British Election Study Internet Panel to identify who does and does not own the necessary photo documents and how this affected turnout in the 2023 and 2024 local elections, as well as the 2024 General Election. We find that around 5% of the voting-age population lack valid voter identification and that this is related to age, education, socio-economic status, and social grade. The data also give us a reliable indication of the party-political impact of the photo ID requirement. We find that conservative voters are more likely to hold valid photo identification than supporters of other parties. We also find that a small but significant proportion of registered voters (between 1.2% and 2.4%) reported either being turned away or dissuaded from voting at these elections because of the requirement.
Reposted by Tom Barton
chanret.bsky.social
If you are a third year UG student or a Masters student, and are interesting in studying for a PhD in the UK, then (roughly speaking) you've got to decide whether you're going to apply for the main funding scheme for it over the next four months. Explanation follows... (1/n)
tombarton.bsky.social
Excited to announce that from Monday I will be starting a Post-Doc at King's College on the ERC funded Advocacy in Digital Democracy project, led by @annerasmussen.bsky.social. A change of location (within London) and topic for me but something highly relevant to politics today
tombarton.bsky.social
For the first time many voters in the UK had to show ID, did it affect turnout? We discuss below.
Reposted by Tom Barton
chanret.bsky.social
Data dump: using Survation's data on electoral registration and possession of qualifying photo ID, I've put together ward-level estimates (E&W only) of the proportion of registered electors who lack qualifying ID. You can find it here: docs.google.com/spreadsheets... (1/n)
Ward-level estimates of registration and lack of ID (7th June edition)
Proportion lacking ID by ward Ward,Ward code,Borough,Westminster seat,Seat code,Ward voting age population in census,Registered voters (estimated),Registered voters without ID (estimated),Avg Pct reg...
docs.google.com
tombarton.bsky.social
Apologies my mistake
tombarton.bsky.social
So when will we know the *true* impact of this more restrictive voter ID? The next General Election...perhaps (10/10)
tombarton.bsky.social
Yes voter ID won't be required in tomorrow's Welsh elections. But these are PCC elections, so with their extremely low turnout comparing with English PCC elections would be problematic (9/n)
tombarton.bsky.social
Therefore, what will initial turnout figures tell us about this new ID law? Not a lot. As academic literature suggests this effect is likely to be particular to certain groups and a more in-depth analysis will be needed - watch this space 😜 (8/n)