Urban Carmel
@ukarlewitz.bsky.social
Former: UBS Securities, Asia Ex-Pat, McKinsey, Mayor of Mill Valley, Finance Twitter. Fan of causal relationships, behavioral finance and the Quad Dipsea.
Walter is spot on. Bull markets are littered with breadth divergences that never amount to anything actionable
December 12, 2025 at 2:42 PM
Walter is spot on. Bull markets are littered with breadth divergences that never amount to anything actionable
It's the 9th trading day of December when indices are supposed to be at their low. RUT is +3.6%, DJIA is +2.1% and SPX is +1% so far. All are at new ATHs. The good part starts tomorrow?
December 11, 2025 at 9:53 PM
It's the 9th trading day of December when indices are supposed to be at their low. RUT is +3.6%, DJIA is +2.1% and SPX is +1% so far. All are at new ATHs. The good part starts tomorrow?
Dow transports on track for ATH weekly close. Dow Industrials at a new ATH today. Dow Theorists rejoice
December 11, 2025 at 9:27 PM
Dow transports on track for ATH weekly close. Dow Industrials at a new ATH today. Dow Theorists rejoice
Here's another example, also know as the Fallacy of the Hot Hand.. Fridays were on a losing streak but now up 7 of the last 8 weeks while previously hot Mondays down 50% of the time since this post.
December 7, 2025 at 8:33 PM
Here's another example, also know as the Fallacy of the Hot Hand.. Fridays were on a losing streak but now up 7 of the last 8 weeks while previously hot Mondays down 50% of the time since this post.
This is an example of the Gambler's Fallacy, the belief that random, independent events somehow "balance out". The market does not have a "memory" that forces it to go up simply because it has gone down twice before.
December 7, 2025 at 8:28 PM
This is an example of the Gambler's Fallacy, the belief that random, independent events somehow "balance out". The market does not have a "memory" that forces it to go up simply because it has gone down twice before.
You could add that there has historically been a long lag between europhia and the eventual market top. Again, investors should never assume that there's a tidy symmetry between sentiment at tops and bottoms. Investors get bearish all at once (bottom) but can remain bullish during long uptrends
December 4, 2025 at 9:05 PM
You could add that there has historically been a long lag between europhia and the eventual market top. Again, investors should never assume that there's a tidy symmetry between sentiment at tops and bottoms. Investors get bearish all at once (bottom) but can remain bullish during long uptrends
Initial UE claims this week 191k. It has basically never been this low. In the 50 yrs before COVID, it cracked under 200k only once. In the ~9-mo heading into a recession, claims have historically been on the rise and above 300k. So there's that
December 4, 2025 at 2:57 PM
Initial UE claims this week 191k. It has basically never been this low. In the 50 yrs before COVID, it cracked under 200k only once. In the ~9-mo heading into a recession, claims have historically been on the rise and above 300k. So there's that
Trading Maxim #41,309 is to wait for the 8th test of resistance
December 3, 2025 at 8:34 PM
Trading Maxim #41,309 is to wait for the 8th test of resistance
Trucking represents 72.7% of tonnage carried by all modes of domestic freight transportation, including manufactured and retail goods. Down 2% yoy, flat YTD. From ATA
www.trucking.org/sites/defaul...
www.trucking.org/sites/defaul...
December 3, 2025 at 8:24 PM
Trucking represents 72.7% of tonnage carried by all modes of domestic freight transportation, including manufactured and retail goods. Down 2% yoy, flat YTD. From ATA
www.trucking.org/sites/defaul...
www.trucking.org/sites/defaul...
$IYT transportation ETF. Knocking on the door of a new ATH for the first time in a year. You know what they say, 8th time is the charm
December 2, 2025 at 11:12 PM
$IYT transportation ETF. Knocking on the door of a new ATH for the first time in a year. You know what they say, 8th time is the charm
Mark Hulbert: "Good Bye Bull Market" in today's Market Watch.
"So while there are plenty of signs of irrational exuberance in the stock market, contrarians don’t know if the top will occur in the next several weeks, in 2026 or if it already happened in October." www.marketwatch.com/story/goodby...
"So while there are plenty of signs of irrational exuberance in the stock market, contrarians don’t know if the top will occur in the next several weeks, in 2026 or if it already happened in October." www.marketwatch.com/story/goodby...
December 2, 2025 at 8:39 PM
Mark Hulbert: "Good Bye Bull Market" in today's Market Watch.
"So while there are plenty of signs of irrational exuberance in the stock market, contrarians don’t know if the top will occur in the next several weeks, in 2026 or if it already happened in October." www.marketwatch.com/story/goodby...
"So while there are plenty of signs of irrational exuberance in the stock market, contrarians don’t know if the top will occur in the next several weeks, in 2026 or if it already happened in October." www.marketwatch.com/story/goodby...
TrumpShitCoin down another 60% since then.
December 1, 2025 at 2:32 PM
TrumpShitCoin down another 60% since then.
Highest college football spending (NIL + head coach). Congrats to Ohio State for outspending Michigan by 50% to win yesterday’s game. The best that can be said is Ohio got its moneys worth (unlike Texas). From Gemini
November 30, 2025 at 6:06 PM
Highest college football spending (NIL + head coach). Congrats to Ohio State for outspending Michigan by 50% to win yesterday’s game. The best that can be said is Ohio got its moneys worth (unlike Texas). From Gemini
$SPX up 7 mo in a row. N=16 since 1950. All closed higher within 5 mo. 1980 rose 8 mo in a row and then it was straight downhill until 1982. From Subutrade
November 28, 2025 at 8:55 PM
$SPX up 7 mo in a row. N=16 since 1950. All closed higher within 5 mo. 1980 rose 8 mo in a row and then it was straight downhill until 1982. From Subutrade
50-d low and then >70% A/D issues within 4 days. N=13 in the past 55 years of which 3 happened this year. From NXGenNews
November 27, 2025 at 12:29 AM
50-d low and then >70% A/D issues within 4 days. N=13 in the past 55 years of which 3 happened this year. From NXGenNews
$SPX 60' RSI(5) = 95. Turkey might be getting a little overcooked. Similar in past 11-months highlighted.
November 26, 2025 at 3:50 PM
$SPX 60' RSI(5) = 95. Turkey might be getting a little overcooked. Similar in past 11-months highlighted.
So far, banks' 2026 YE targets are a median of 7600, about 11% higher than today's level. If you're a strategist, this target makes sense: since 1980, the market is up on the year nearly 80% of the time by an average of 11%. Table from Gemini
November 26, 2025 at 3:05 PM
So far, banks' 2026 YE targets are a median of 7600, about 11% higher than today's level. If you're a strategist, this target makes sense: since 1980, the market is up on the year nearly 80% of the time by an average of 11%. Table from Gemini
Gemini 3: provide a chart of the cost of a turkey (per lbs) and the cost of a typical Thanksgiving meal for the past 11 years
November 26, 2025 at 2:31 PM
Gemini 3: provide a chart of the cost of a turkey (per lbs) and the cost of a typical Thanksgiving meal for the past 11 years
September real retail sales +1.2% yoy, ex-gas +1.3% yoy. Retail sales are at the level you'd expect them to be if the Covid shock had never occurred
November 26, 2025 at 3:01 AM
September real retail sales +1.2% yoy, ex-gas +1.3% yoy. Retail sales are at the level you'd expect them to be if the Covid shock had never occurred
Breadth via ZBT oversold (lower panel) but yet a thrust (buy signal) while $SPX still above its 200-d. Many followed by short term bounce (Feb 2023 lost another 3%) and/or longer term buy signal (not Jan 2022). Overall, good but not great.
November 23, 2025 at 7:58 PM
Breadth via ZBT oversold (lower panel) but yet a thrust (buy signal) while $SPX still above its 200-d. Many followed by short term bounce (Feb 2023 lost another 3%) and/or longer term buy signal (not Jan 2022). Overall, good but not great.
SPY weekly low on the 20-wma (arrows). Again, first time usually holds, so far no foul
November 21, 2025 at 10:01 PM
SPY weekly low on the 20-wma (arrows). Again, first time usually holds, so far no foul
Fear & Greed at 6. It was 4 when SPX bottomed on April 7.
November 21, 2025 at 12:03 AM
Fear & Greed at 6. It was 4 when SPX bottomed on April 7.
The CW is that $SPX is flat YTD before mid term elections. Here's the last 11 instances. 72% are up but the 3 down years were doozies, so the average is flat. 72% is the same as any year, so mid terms aren't especially different.
November 20, 2025 at 3:37 PM
The CW is that $SPX is flat YTD before mid term elections. Here's the last 11 instances. 72% are up but the 3 down years were doozies, so the average is flat. 72% is the same as any year, so mid terms aren't especially different.
BAML sell signal on equities due to low cash. This triggered in July (LHS) and $SPX rose more than 10% without so much as a 3% drop in the interim.
Sentiment buy signals are solid because investors panic all at once. Assuming a tidy symmetry with sentiment sell signals doesn't work
Sentiment buy signals are solid because investors panic all at once. Assuming a tidy symmetry with sentiment sell signals doesn't work
November 18, 2025 at 4:58 PM
BAML sell signal on equities due to low cash. This triggered in July (LHS) and $SPX rose more than 10% without so much as a 3% drop in the interim.
Sentiment buy signals are solid because investors panic all at once. Assuming a tidy symmetry with sentiment sell signals doesn't work
Sentiment buy signals are solid because investors panic all at once. Assuming a tidy symmetry with sentiment sell signals doesn't work