Vlatko
@vegantriathlete.bsky.social
Reposted by Vlatko
Reposted by Vlatko
Heavy Truck Sales Collapsed in Q4; Down 32.5% Year-over-year in December
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2026/01/heav...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2026/01/heav...
Heavy Truck Sales Collapsed in Q4; Down 32.5% Year-over-year in December
This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the December 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
January 6, 2026 at 3:55 PM
Heavy Truck Sales Collapsed in Q4; Down 32.5% Year-over-year in December
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2026/01/heav...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2026/01/heav...
Reposted by Vlatko
This week, I'm joined by Rutger Bregman, Dutch historian and the guy who went viral telling Davos billionaires to pay their taxes.
We explore why so many of us feel stuck, unfulfilled, or disconnected from purpose, and how to redirect our talent toward what actually matters.
Episode 955✌🏼🌱
We explore why so many of us feel stuck, unfulfilled, or disconnected from purpose, and how to redirect our talent toward what actually matters.
Episode 955✌🏼🌱
December 15, 2025 at 2:57 PM
This week, I'm joined by Rutger Bregman, Dutch historian and the guy who went viral telling Davos billionaires to pay their taxes.
We explore why so many of us feel stuck, unfulfilled, or disconnected from purpose, and how to redirect our talent toward what actually matters.
Episode 955✌🏼🌱
We explore why so many of us feel stuck, unfulfilled, or disconnected from purpose, and how to redirect our talent toward what actually matters.
Episode 955✌🏼🌱
Reposted by Vlatko
FOMC Minutes: "Likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for the rest of the year."
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/fomc...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/fomc...
November 19, 2025 at 7:26 PM
FOMC Minutes: "Likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for the rest of the year."
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/fomc...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/11/fomc...
Reposted by Vlatko
Lawler: Single-Family Rent Trends at INVH and AMH calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-sin...
Lawler: Single-Family Rent Trends at INVH and AMH
Some data and comments from housing economist Tom Lawler:
calculatedrisk.substack.com
November 4, 2025 at 9:35 PM
Lawler: Single-Family Rent Trends at INVH and AMH calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-sin...
Reposted by Vlatko
Housing October 27th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 1.0% Week-over-week, New High for 2025
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/hous...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/hous...
Housing October 27th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 1.0% Week-over-week, New High for 2025
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.0% week-over-week. Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then decl...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
October 27, 2025 at 1:40 PM
Housing October 27th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 1.0% Week-over-week, New High for 2025
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/hous...
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/hous...
Reposted by Vlatko
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 4.2% Year-over-year www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/hote...
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 4.2% Year-over-year
Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, due to less international tourism. The fall months are mostly domestic travel and occupanc...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
October 2, 2025 at 5:42 PM
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 4.2% Year-over-year www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/hote...
Reposted by Vlatko
30 Worst Performing CBSAs
October 1, 2025 at 4:05 PM
30 Worst Performing CBSAs
Reposted by Vlatko
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/asking-ren...
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year
Another monthly update on rents.
calculatedrisk.substack.com
September 4, 2025 at 4:09 PM
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/asking-ren...
Reposted by Vlatko
Las Vegas in July: Visitor Traffic Down 12% YoY www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/09/las-...
Las Vegas in July: Visitor Traffic Down 12% YoY
From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: July 2025 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics Slower tourism trends of recent months continued in July as th...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
September 4, 2025 at 7:38 PM
Las Vegas in July: Visitor Traffic Down 12% YoY www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/09/las-...
Reposted by Vlatko
And I was planning a quiet evening ... paulkrugman.substack.com/p/an-emergen...
An Emergency non-Emergency Post
Holy tariff mess, Batman
paulkrugman.substack.com
August 29, 2025 at 11:21 PM
And I was planning a quiet evening ... paulkrugman.substack.com/p/an-emergen...
Reposted by Vlatko
I have an unusual problem with the elimination of the "de minimis" tariff exemption. When I give talks abroad, the host often offers a lovely but awkward gift — say, a 20 lb coffee table book on the history of their city. So I ask them to mail it. No more. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
Postal services around the world suspend deliveries to US: how will it affect you?
Suspensions including from Australia and Europe come after Donald Trump removed a rule exempting parcels worth less than US$800 from his tariffs
www.theguardian.com
August 28, 2025 at 4:20 PM
I have an unusual problem with the elimination of the "de minimis" tariff exemption. When I give talks abroad, the host often offers a lovely but awkward gift — say, a 20 lb coffee table book on the history of their city. So I ask them to mail it. No more. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
Reposted by Vlatko
New Home Sales at 652,000 Annual Rate in July
Median New Home Price is Down 12% from the Peak due to Change in Mix
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/new-home-s...
Median New Home Price is Down 12% from the Peak due to Change in Mix
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/new-home-s...
August 25, 2025 at 2:45 PM
New Home Sales at 652,000 Annual Rate in July
Median New Home Price is Down 12% from the Peak due to Change in Mix
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/new-home-s...
Median New Home Price is Down 12% from the Peak due to Change in Mix
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/new-home-s...
Reposted by Vlatko
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.9% year-over-year in June www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/08/case...
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.9% year-over-year in June
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for June ("June" is a 3-month average of April, May and June closing prices). Th...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
August 26, 2025 at 1:13 PM
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.9% year-over-year in June www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/08/case...
Reposted by Vlatko
Yellen not at all pulling her punches in this op-ed for the FT www.ft.com/content/d2ea...
August 27, 2025 at 2:34 PM
Yellen not at all pulling her punches in this op-ed for the FT www.ft.com/content/d2ea...
Reposted by Vlatko
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.9% Year-over-year; Weak Summer www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/08/hote...
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.9% Year-over-year; Weak Summer
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 16 August The U.S. hotel industry reported mostly negative year-over-year comparisons, accordi...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
August 21, 2025 at 6:19 PM
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.9% Year-over-year; Weak Summer www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/08/hote...
Reposted by Vlatko
Deportations and detentions will inflict a lot of damage on the US economy 1/ paulkrugman.substack.com/p/iceing-the...
ICEing the U.S. Economy
Mass deportations will hurt more than people realize
paulkrugman.substack.com
August 20, 2025 at 1:37 PM
Deportations and detentions will inflict a lot of damage on the US economy 1/ paulkrugman.substack.com/p/iceing-the...
Reposted by Vlatko
AIA: "Business at architecture firms remains soft" in July www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/08/aia-...
Multi-family billings have been below 50 for 36 consecutive months. This suggests we will some further weakness in multi-family starts.
Multi-family billings have been below 50 for 36 consecutive months. This suggests we will some further weakness in multi-family starts.
AIA: "Business at architecture firms remains soft" in July
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment including multi-family residential. From...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
August 20, 2025 at 3:35 PM
AIA: "Business at architecture firms remains soft" in July www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/08/aia-...
Multi-family billings have been below 50 for 36 consecutive months. This suggests we will some further weakness in multi-family starts.
Multi-family billings have been below 50 for 36 consecutive months. This suggests we will some further weakness in multi-family starts.
Reposted by Vlatko
LA Ports: Imports Up, Exports Down in July www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/08/la-p...
This is the 8th consecutive month with exports down YoY.
This is the 8th consecutive month with exports down YoY.
LA Ports: Imports Up, Exports Down in July
Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report si...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
August 18, 2025 at 7:29 PM
LA Ports: Imports Up, Exports Down in July www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/08/la-p...
This is the 8th consecutive month with exports down YoY.
This is the 8th consecutive month with exports down YoY.
Reposted by Vlatko
This is the way the bubble ends: Not with a pop, but with smog and brownouts. [Disappointed that some readers didn't recognize the TS Eliot ref]
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/what-happe...
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/what-happe...
What Happens If AI Hits An Energy Wall?
The technology driving the economy has some big problems
paulkrugman.substack.com
August 19, 2025 at 1:49 PM
This is the way the bubble ends: Not with a pop, but with smog and brownouts. [Disappointed that some readers didn't recognize the TS Eliot ref]
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/what-happe...
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/what-happe...
Reposted by Vlatko
Apparently some people over here don't know that I'm posting almost daily on Substack. It's free 6 days a week, with only the Sunday primers (which are very labor-intensive) paywalled. According to the U.S. politics bestseller list, this venture is going pretty well
August 18, 2025 at 1:22 PM
Apparently some people over here don't know that I'm posting almost daily on Substack. It's free 6 days a week, with only the Sunday primers (which are very labor-intensive) paywalled. According to the U.S. politics bestseller list, this venture is going pretty well
Reposted by Vlatko
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in July calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/3rd-look-a...
"Active listings reached an all-time high in July, exceeding 40,000 available homes in the Houston area."
"Active listings reached an all-time high in July, exceeding 40,000 available homes in the Houston area."
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in July
First, here are some comments from the Houston Association of REALTORS®: HOUSTON HOME PRICES EASE IN JULY AS SUPPLY HITS RECORD HIGH
calculatedrisk.substack.com
August 18, 2025 at 4:26 PM
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in July calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/3rd-look-a...
"Active listings reached an all-time high in July, exceeding 40,000 available homes in the Houston area."
"Active listings reached an all-time high in July, exceeding 40,000 available homes in the Houston area."
Reposted by Vlatko
Recession Watch Metrics www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/08/rece...
Recession Watch Metrics
Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
August 6, 2025 at 5:23 PM
Recession Watch Metrics www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/08/rece...
Reposted by Vlatko
July Employment Report: 73 thousand Jobs, 4.2% Unemployment Rate www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/08/july...
"With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 258,000 lower than previously reported."
"With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 258,000 lower than previously reported."
July Employment Report: 73 thousand Jobs, 4.2% Unemployment Rate
From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in July (+73,000) and has shown little change since A...
www.calculatedriskblog.com
August 1, 2025 at 12:43 PM
July Employment Report: 73 thousand Jobs, 4.2% Unemployment Rate www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/08/july...
"With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 258,000 lower than previously reported."
"With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 258,000 lower than previously reported."
Reposted by Vlatko
California unsold inventory is at levels not seen in 8 years. Up 37% over last year.
Help me answer: Why now?
Help me answer: Why now?
July 21, 2025 at 10:44 PM
California unsold inventory is at levels not seen in 8 years. Up 37% over last year.
Help me answer: Why now?
Help me answer: Why now?