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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · Aug 15

Experiencing extreme heat first hand today in Cantabria, and the 5 year old is enjoying quizzing me on a topic I am happy to discuss in detail - but I'm not sure if these could be fire clouds on the horizon?

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Reposted by Vikki Thompson

Madeleine Cuff @tinymaddie.bsky.social · Aug 8

Europe's current climate could produce a 'mega heatwave', feat. more than a month of +40C temps & intense drought

Extra scary fact: The worst-case heatwaves occur predominantly after another extreme heatwave. In other words, rolling waves of deadly heat

www.newscientist.com/article/2491...

Europe could face weeks of 40°C heat in current worst-case scenario

A perfect storm of conditions priming the atmosphere for extreme heat could result in devastating droughts and deadly temperatures lasting for weeks across Europe

www.newscientist.com

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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · Aug 5

This week marks my last few days working at KNMI, after a fantastic few years exploring new methods with amazing colleagues and collaborators it's time for the next challenge. First, a holiday ☀️⛰️🚴‍♂️

My workplace for the past few years: KNMI radar tower and offices

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Reposted by Vikki Thompson

KNMI @knmi.nl · Jul 8

Nieuw onderzoek laat zien dat de overstromingen in Limburg in 2021 nog veel ernstiger hadden kunnen zijn. Als het weer nét iets anders was verlopen, hadden de buien langer kunnen duren of op een andere plek kunnen vallen, met mogelijk grotere impact. 🔗 www.knmi.nl/over-het-knm...

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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · Jul 8

With coauthors @hancloke.bsky.social @erichfischer.bsky.social Dim Coumou, Urs Beyerle, & Joy Ommer

@knmi.nl

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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · Jul 8

📣 New paper:
💧💧💧 In July 2021 record breaking rainfall hit western Europe, we use ensemble boosting to explore different plausible storylines. These show it could have rained for longer, or over a larger area, or in a different place. Are we prepared?

doi.org/10.1038/s432...

Showing the rainfall of 14th July 2021 (upper left) and 5 alternative scenarios derived from a climate model, conditioned to the atmospheric circulation patterns of the observed event.
Similar to fig.6 of https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02386-y

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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · Jul 2

Last night, for the second night running, temperatures didn't drop below 20°C in Utrecht 🇳🇱.

🥵🌃🌡️

Due to human activity the chances of such heat are increasing, taking us ever closer to the story told in: www.unseenheat.com

@stichtingcas.bsky.social @timokelder.bsky.social

www.unseenheat.com

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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · Jun 30

🌡️☀️ It is hot in Europe this week – but how much hotter would it be in the future? Using a weather model we can simulate tomorrow’s weather in a warmer climate. Tomorrow Paris is forecast to reach 37°C, in a world 1.5°C warmer the same weather patterns could lead to temperatures over 40°C.

Map of European daily maximum temperatures for (1st July 2025) tomorrow's weather in (left) a present day climate and (right) a 1.5K warmer climate.

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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · Jun 21

#ShowYourStripes day on a #parkrun day made it easy to pick out a shirt.

Climate change impacts sports. Extreme heat, happening increasingly often, forces events to adjust or cancel with little notice. Climate change impacts everyone.

A selfie at parkrun wearing a climate striped tshirt

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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · Jun 10

🌧️🌍💧 Our new paper, led by Geert Lenderink, shows recent European extreme rainfall events have localised climate change responses beyond the expected Clausius-Clapeyron rate – potentially enhancing flash floods in a warmer climate.

Read it here: doi.org/10.1016/j.wa... @hayleyjfowler.bsky.social

Redirecting

doi.org

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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · May 2

After a fantastic set of oral presentations the posters sessions in hall X3 now, perfect way to end your #EGU25!

Kai Kornhuber @kornhuber.bsky.social · May 2

Happening now in 1.31/32 🟩 @egu.eu our session on

‘Future changes in Weather and Climate Hazards around the World’

co-convened with @raedhamed.bsky.social @vikkithompson.bsky.social @tamarahappe.bsky.social @eunicelo.bsky.social
@iiasa.ac.at

Also join us at the posters at X3 🟪 at 16:15.

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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · May 2

Coming up soon at #EGU25, come along to chat about event attribution at lunchtime in room 2.43

Marylou Athanase @marylouathanase.bsky.social · Apr 27

If you are attending #EGU25 and interested in the attribution of #climate extremes: consider joining our networking session on Friday noon!

We will exchange on existing methods, their strengths, and how to compare them:
meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/sessio...

W/ @vikkithompson.bsky.social

Leaflet of the EGU25 splinter meeting.

Title: Networking session: comparing methods for extreme event attribution.
Illustrations: plots from various attribution methods.

Time and location: Friday 02.05, 12h45-13h45, room 2.43.

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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · May 1

Today we present an online tool for identifying circulation analogues, now available on Climate Explorer. I'll be at my #EGU25 poster, at X5.171, from 1615 (or after 1800 with my small assistant).

climexp.knmi.nl/analoguesfor...

Science poster, available online: https://vikki-thompson.github.io/images/EGU25_poster_thompson.pdf

Photo also features a 5 year old.

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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · May 1

At #EGU25 this morning, hear me talk about ensemble boosting of extreme rainfall using only the thousand most common English words - PICO spot 3 at 11.08

Lukas Brunner @lukasbrunner.bsky.social · Apr 4

Let me very warmly recommend putting our Up-Goer Five session into your EGU25 calendar! I mean, just have a look at these amazing abstract titles (using only the 1000 most used English words).
I can guarantee that this will be an extremely informative and fun session!
🤓🧑‍🎓
#EGU25 @egu.eu

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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · Apr 29

I'm at #EGU25 this week, and today at 1400 I'll be discussing the western European July 2021 extreme rain in this session:

Laura Suarez-Gutierrez @drlaurasuarez.bsky.social · Apr 27

#EGU25 is about to start!

If you're there, check out our session on High-impact Climate Extremes on Tuesday, room 🟨 F1

🧪: meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/sessio...

With many exciting talks, including the CL Division Outstanding ECS Award Lecture by
@kornhuber.bsky.social

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Reposted by Vikki Thompson

Marylou Athanase @marylouathanase.bsky.social · Apr 27

If you are attending #EGU25 and interested in the attribution of #climate extremes: consider joining our networking session on Friday noon!

We will exchange on existing methods, their strengths, and how to compare them:
meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/sessio...

W/ @vikkithompson.bsky.social

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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · Apr 17

Are you interested in extreme event attribution and attending #EGU25? Come along to our networking session to discuss the strengths and challenges of different methods.

meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/sessio...

@marylouathanase.bsky.social

Poster, text: Networking Session: Comparing methods for extreme event attribution. Conveners: Vikki Thompson, Shirin Ermis, and Marylou Athanase. EGU General Assembly 2025. Friday 12.45-13.45 in room 2.43. Three images of extreme event attribution techniques. QR code links to https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/session/55165

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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · Apr 4

Super excited to be presenting our ensemble boosting work, 'Imagine rain falling in a different place', in this session:

Lukas Brunner @lukasbrunner.bsky.social · Apr 4

Let me very warmly recommend putting our Up-Goer Five session into your EGU25 calendar! I mean, just have a look at these amazing abstract titles (using only the 1000 most used English words).
I can guarantee that this will be an extremely informative and fun session!
🤓🧑‍🎓
#EGU25 @egu.eu

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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · Apr 4

Once again, I am taking my daughter to #EGU25. She has been busy making extreme weather posters 'just like mama'. Any other (ideally english/dutch speaking) ~5 yr olds booked into the childcare, who might fancy some lunchtime picnics?

Photo of me and my daughter outside the EGU General Assembly in 2022

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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · Mar 24

Planning your #EGU25 travel? If you're interested in extreme event attribution, make sure to stay until Friday to come along to our networking session to discuss the value of multiple methods. @marylouathanase.bsky.social

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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · Mar 11

Enjoyed being involved in this new perspective led by @timokelder.bsky.social, where we show the value of using multiple lines of evidence to assess plausible yet unprecedented extreme events that we need to be preparing for 🌍🌧️🌀🌡️

Timo Kelder @timokelder.bsky.social · Mar 11

1/ How to Stop Being Surprised by Unprecedented Weather

Our new @naturecomms.bsky.social paper provides our multi-author perspective on methods to anticipate extreme weather and reduce impacts, shifting from reacting with surprise towards resilience.

🔗 Read it here: doi.org/10.1038/s414...

🧵⬇️

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Reposted by Vikki Thompson

Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · Mar 11

How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather

Kelder et al. discusses a multitude of ways that we could anticipate unprecedented weather events that might otherwise be a surprise

rdcu.be/ecWQF

How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather

Nature Communications - Unprecedented weather events are increasingly impacting societies worldwide. This Perspective explores methods to anticipate such hazards, and it highlights the role of...

rdcu.be

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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · Feb 18

Perhaps a clue to understanding possible changes in Santa Ana winds that helped drive this January's Californian wildfires:

Matt Patterson @mattpattclimate.bsky.social · Feb 18

New paper!

Chris O'Reilly and I looked at recent trends in the wintertime North Pacific jet stream

- Has climate change shifted the jet?
- Can models capture these recent trends?
- How has this affected North American weather?

doi.org/10.1029/2024...

🧵

Climate Models Struggle to Simulate Observed North Pacific Jet Trends, Even Accounting for Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Trends

The North Pacific jet has shifted northward over the satellite-era but no models show a trend of the same magnitude over this period This trend is consistent with variability associated with the ...

doi.org

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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · Jan 30

Hi Nat, the report does identify an increasing trend in frequency and intensity of the observed pattern - work to understand why and model assessment to attribute that trend is now ongoing. Would love to hear further ideas of what could be done!

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Vikki Thompson @vikkithompson.bsky.social · Jan 29

Ooh, that looks very useful! We haven't looked for a 'why' yet but this looks like it'll be at least part of the answer. Have you checked it out in models too?

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