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Reposted by Matt Patterson

National Centre for Atmospheric Science @ncas-uk.bsky.social · 9d

Machine learning can now predict El Niño up to 23 months ahead, using wind data from the Indian Ocean. Dr Ioana Colfescu shows how AI cuts complexity, boosts accuracy, and helps us prep for climate extremes.

Read more:
ncas.ac.uk/in-conversat...

In conversation with Dr Ioana Colfescu: Machine learning can predict ENSO - NCAS

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an irregular climate pattern that brings heavy rain, droughts and temperature changes around the world. ENSO cycles between El Niño and La Nina every 2-7…

ncas.ac.uk

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Reposted by Matt Patterson

Katie Mack @astrokatie.com · 5d

As a theoretical cosmologist, I'm frequently asked "what is the benefit of the work you're doing for people's lives?" Nothing I work on makes money or cures disease.

There are a few different answers one can give, at various levels of "convincing" / "actually relevant to why the work is done."

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Matt Patterson @mattpattclimate.bsky.social · 6d

Equally, we will not regret acting faster on climate change.

Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 7d

We will regret not acting faster on climate change.

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Reposted by Matt Patterson

Hannah Daly @hannahdaly.ie · 6d

The best guess of climate experts at this Overshoot Conference is that - in an optimistic scenario - we return to 1.5C (where we are now) in 7 generations time.

That's about the same distance from now as the start of the Industrial Revolution.

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Reposted by Matt Patterson

Antje Weisheimer @antjeweisheimer.bsky.social · 8d

Are you interested in seasonal forecasts and how they have advanced over the past two decades?
Chris O’Reilly (Univ. of Reading) led a new paper on exactly this: rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...

Evaluating seasonal forecast improvements over the past two decades

We have analysed the performance of operational seasonal forecasting models since their inception. Clear improvements are measured through the different model eras, particularly in the Tropics. For t....

rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com

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Reposted by Matt Patterson

Doug McNeall @dougmcneall.bsky.social · 15d

Big for AI at the @metoffice.gov.uk Fastnet dropped on the arxiv: arxiv.org/abs/2509.17658

Technical overview and architecture of the FastNet Machine Learning weather prediction model, version 1.0

We present FastNet version 1.0, a data-driven medium range numerical weather prediction (NWP) model based on a Graph Neural Network architecture, developed jointly between the Alan Turing Institute an...

arxiv.org

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Reposted by Matt Patterson

James Rae @mudwaterclimate.bsky.social · 21d

🚨New paper on Southern Ocean CO2🚨
Using a suite of Earth system models, Maddie Shankle et al show that better ventilation of intermediate waters in the North Pacific ends up reducing outgassing of CO2 in the Southern Ocean 🌊🧪⚒️🧵 @earthscista.bsky.social
www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Southern Ocean CO2 outgassing and nutrient load reduced by a well-ventilated glacial North Pacific - Nature Communications

A better-ventilated North Pacific could have reduced the carbon of water upwelled in the Southern Ocean, reducing outgassing and revealing a remote influence on Southern Ocean biogeochemistry in glaci...

www.nature.com

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Reposted by Matt Patterson

St Andrews Earth & Environmental Sciences @earthscista.bsky.social · 26d

Meet the motley crew of the School of Earth and Environmental Sciences – ready to kick off the new academic year! 🌍👋

Special mention to our Head of School, Prof. Rob Wilson, who is cleverly disguised a a responsible adult (the T-shirt says it all) 😅🤦‍♂

www.st-andrews.ac.uk/earth-scienc...

Members of SEES on the front steps of Bute, dazzled by the bright Scottish sun. Unless you were smart enough to wear sunglasses like Paul and Bob.

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Reposted by Matt Patterson

James Murray @james-bg.bsky.social · 27d

It looks as if we're in for another autumn of attacks on climate action, with Reform and the Tories trying to blame decarbonisation for everything and The Times yesterday running sensationalist headlines about a falling belief in climate science.
www.businessgreen.com/analysis/451...

How to arrest the slide in support for net zero

New polls show public support for net zero targets is trending downwards following months of attacks from right wing politicians and media titles - how can climate campaigners and green businesses res...

www.businessgreen.com

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Matt Patterson @mattpattclimate.bsky.social · 28d

Frozen chicken

Robert Rohde @rarohde.bsky.social · 28d

Coldest observation that I have in January 2025 is from Chicken, Alaska (64.1 N, 141.9 W, 548 masl) at -49.4 C.

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Matt Patterson @mattpattclimate.bsky.social · 28d

Looks like it may be a mild and wet Autumn / early Winter for the UK and particularly Scotland 🙄.

Probably depends quite a bit on the placement of that high over the Atlantic.

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Matt Patterson @mattpattclimate.bsky.social · 28d

Or you could go the whole way and call it Sandwich University given that Sandwich is in Kent

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Reposted by Matt Patterson

British Antarctic Survey 🐧 @bas.ac.uk · 28d

We need to talk about geoengineering ⚠️

In a rapidly warming world with looming net zero due dates, there's growing polarised debate about whether we should intervene in Earth’s natural systems.

This is a thread about the state of polar geoengineering, and how we should be talking about it ⬇️

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Reposted by Matt Patterson

National Centre for Atmospheric Science @ncas-uk.bsky.social · 28d

What is forecast-based attribution? And did climate change influence the devastating monsoon rainfall in Pakistan, summer 2022?

Find out from NCAS climate scientists @antjeweisheimer.bsky.social & @nickleach.bsky.social:

ncas.ac.uk/climate-chan...

Climate change and monsoon rainfall in Pakistan - NCAS

Researchers have developed a new approach to understand the role of climate change in extreme weather events and humanitarian disasters.

ncas.ac.uk

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Reposted by Matt Patterson

Met Office - weather and climate @metoffice.gov.uk · Sep 4

Machine Learning-based weather models have the potential to revolutionise global seasonal forecasting, according to new Met Office-led research.

Get the full story below or check this short thread for the highlights 👇 🧵

@ai2.bsky.social | #WeatherIntelligence

www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/new...

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Reposted by Matt Patterson

Simon Lee @simonleewx.com · Sep 2

A true pleasure to be visiting National Taiwan University this week, alongside Ioana Colfescu @ncas-uk.bsky.social, as part of our project on stratosphere-troposphere coupling & machine learning, funded jointly by @uniofstandrews.bsky.social & NTU. The hospitality and the food has been outstanding!

Me (left) and Ioana (right) in front of the sign for the Department & Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, College of Science, NTU

Ioana giving a seminar on ML and the NAO

Yu-Chiao Liang, of NTU, introducing the afternoon seminars

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Reposted by Matt Patterson

Liam Dutton @liamdutton.bsky.social · Sep 2

This map shows which year had the warmest summer on record, for mean temperature, area by area.

Note that for many areas, it was summer 2025.

1976 is no longer the warmest summer on record for any area.

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Reposted by Matt Patterson

Adam Vaughan @adamvaughan.bsky.social · Sep 1

NEW

Summer 2025 was the UK's hottest on record

This year's average summer temperature of 16.1C was made around 70 times more likely because of climate change, the @metoffice.gov.uk has found

www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/new...

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Matt Patterson @mattpattclimate.bsky.social · Aug 31

Presumably this comment is a statement about probabilities - us being confident that heat stress will impact large swathes of populations vs uncertainty about AMOC collapse (even though the latter would be catastrophic regionally)?

Reposted by Matt Patterson

Gemma Plumb @gemmaplumbweather.bsky.social · Aug 28

Summer 2025 will 'almost certainly' be the warmest on record for the UK, according to provisional data from the @metoffice.gov.uk

This would mean that the 5 warmest summers for the UK will have all occurred since the year 2000, and the records go back to 1884.

www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/new...

This summer will ‘almost certainly’ be warmest on record for the UK

Provisional statistics from the Met Office show that summer 2025 will ‘almost certainly’ be the warmest summer on record for the UK.

www.metoffice.gov.uk

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Reposted by Matt Patterson

Adam Vaughan @adamvaughan.bsky.social · Aug 26

The UK's new normal is here: hotter and drier summers.

The summer of 2025 will almost certainly be the warmest on record (we'll get confirmation next week).

As this @metoffice.gov.uk graph shows, it looks set to break the record by a big margin too
www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/new...

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Matt Patterson @mattpattclimate.bsky.social · Aug 25

Also, a lot of people live in the East in the drier, more drought exposed places like the cities of Edinburgh, Dundee and Aberdeen.

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Reposted by Matt Patterson

Hannah Daly @hannahdaly.ie · Aug 21

It can be simultaneously true that individual AI prompts use minuscule amounts of energy, and also that the growth of AI in general threatens global progress on decarbonisation.

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Matt Patterson @mattpattclimate.bsky.social · Aug 21

I hadn't thought of this before, but presumably the invention of the telegraph was crucial for making weather forecasts possible by enabling observations to be collated and analysed close enough to real time.

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Reposted by Matt Patterson

Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · Aug 21

The moment that weather forecasting began

climatelabbook.substack.com/p/the-storm-...

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