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Reposted by Antje Weisheimer

The Cure @thecure.com · 1d

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Reposted by Antje Weisheimer

Department of Physics at the University of Oxford @oxfordphysics.bsky.social · 1d

Join us 16 Oct - The 2025 Halley Public Lecture 'Cloud Mesoscale Organisation and Climate: New Insights from Models and Observations' by Sandrine Bony (Sorbonne University) Register now: https://www.physics.ox.ac.uk/events/cloud-mesoscale-organisation-and-climate-new-insights-models-and-observations

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Antje Weisheimer @antjeweisheimer.bsky.social · 7d

We find that the biggest gains come from the newest generation of models and are linked to higher atmospheric model resolution.

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Antje Weisheimer @antjeweisheimer.bsky.social · 7d

Skill of operational multi-model seasonal forecasts for boreal winter (DJF), forecast from November 1 . Pattern correlation of the extratropical anomaly between the observations and the multi-model ensemble mean Z500 anomaly forecast. The thick solid line and shading show the five-year running mean pattern correlation and standard error around this mean.

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Antje Weisheimer @antjeweisheimer.bsky.social · 7d

In the extratropics, the picture is more mixed: strong improvements mainly show up in boreal winter over the North Pacific & North America.

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Antje Weisheimer @antjeweisheimer.bsky.social · 7d

Yet there have been clear improvements in some regions, esp. in the tropics 🌴. These imply better predictability of temperature & rainfall across various continental regions.

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Antje Weisheimer @antjeweisheimer.bsky.social · 7d

The impact of continuous advances in modelling on seasonal forecast skill is not easily demonstrated: comparisons are challenged by small operational forecast samples, large variations in ensemble sizes between models, and inconsistent hindcast periods.

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Antje Weisheimer @antjeweisheimer.bsky.social · 7d

Are you interested in seasonal forecasts and how they have advanced over the past two decades?
Chris O’Reilly (Univ. of Reading) led a new paper on exactly this: rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...

Evaluating seasonal forecast improvements over the past two decades

We have analysed the performance of operational seasonal forecasting models since their inception. Clear improvements are measured through the different model eras, particularly in the Tropics. For t....

rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com

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Antje Weisheimer @antjeweisheimer.bsky.social · 7d

Good communication of weather forecast uncertainty.

Met Office - weather and climate @metoffice.gov.uk · 7d

There is some uncertainty in the track of the area of low pressure arriving on Friday - here are the most likely scenarios 👇

A graphic showing the possible track of a deep area of low pressure across the UK on Friday 3rd and Saturday 4th October.

In the most likely scenario, the low pressure tracks across northern Scotland, bringing very strong winds to parts of northern England, Northern Ireland and much of Scotland, with the possibility of inland gales. The strong winds and most damaging gusts in this scenario, as well as the heaviest rain, would be across central and northern Scotland.

If the low tracked further south, there would be the potential for widespread gales across the UK, with the strongest winds and most damaging gusts across parts of Wales, northwest England and Northern Ireland. As well as strong winds, there would be widespread heavy rain across the UK.

If the low tracked further north, the strongest, most damaging winds would remain offshore, with a risk of gales in northern England and Scotland. Heavy rain would be confined to northern and western Scotland.

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Reposted by Antje Weisheimer

Tom Gauld @tomgauld.bsky.social · 22d

My latest cartoon for @newscientist.com

p.s. this week I am on a USA/Canada tour with my new book. Details and preorder links at tomgauld.com

Panel 1. image of a huge nuclear plant.
“Reactor Overheating”

2. A worker in a hazmat suit works at a computer. The screen reads:
“Press cancel to avoid critical overload”

3 - 9. The worker continues to type at the computer. The screen changes in each panel and reads:
“Enter password to confirm”
“Incorrect password”
“Incorrect password”
“Do you want to reset your password?”
“Reset link has been sent to your email”
“Please choose a new password”
“New password can't be the same as old password”
The colour gets hotter in each panel. Starting blue in 1 and ending in red in 9.

Panel 10. Wide view. The entire earth is blown up.

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Reposted by Antje Weisheimer

EXPECT Project @expect-project.bsky.social · 28d

Predicting extreme rainfall: What caused Pakistan’s record 2022 rainfall?🌧️

Our project partner @ecmwf.int has recently released a study examining the event and the role of human-induced #ClimateChange

📖 Read more: www.nature.com/articles/s41...

@antjeweisheimer.bsky.social @cdroberts.bsky.social

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Reposted by Antje Weisheimer

National Centre for Atmospheric Science @ncas-uk.bsky.social · 28d

What is forecast-based attribution? And did climate change influence the devastating monsoon rainfall in Pakistan, summer 2022?

Find out from NCAS climate scientists @antjeweisheimer.bsky.social & @nickleach.bsky.social:

ncas.ac.uk/climate-chan...

Climate change and monsoon rainfall in Pakistan - NCAS

Researchers have developed a new approach to understand the role of climate change in extreme weather events and humanitarian disasters.

ncas.ac.uk

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Reposted by Antje Weisheimer

Robin Hogan @robinjhogan.bsky.social · Sep 2

Great to see the new #ECMWF building going up on the beautiful University of Reading campus, very near the Meteorology Department - looking forward to moving in in 2027!

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Antje Weisheimer @antjeweisheimer.bsky.social · Aug 18

The IFS is a spectral model, so no model level is exactly at 2m everywhere. Not sure about grid point models like the Met Office one.

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Antje Weisheimer @antjeweisheimer.bsky.social · Aug 18

Exactly, temperature is only prognostic at model levels. 2m temp is diagnosed using BL theory and other parametrisatios but I’m not an expert in this area. The ECMWF forecasts (based on the physical IFS model) is known to produce noticeable 2m temperature which errors for certain conditions.

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Antje Weisheimer @antjeweisheimer.bsky.social · Aug 18

Despite the disappointment weather wise, it’s a good example of the importance of clouds, how difficult it is to predict near surface/2m temperature, which not a prognostic quantity in many models, and the role of communicating uncertainties.

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Reposted by Antje Weisheimer

Tim Woollings @timwoollings.bsky.social · Aug 14

Two postdoc jobs available on our Arctic Butterflies project! (Not actual butterflies - basically Arctic dynamics and predictability - the butterfly effect in the Arctic...)

Oxford job: tinyurl.com/yc6h4b35

Reading job: tinyurl.com/ypn75jh2

Please help spread the word!

Job Details

tinyurl.com

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Reposted by Antje Weisheimer

Matt Patterson @mattpattclimate.bsky.social · Aug 14

New paper in ASL on assessing temperature trends in Seasonal Forecasting systems by me, @antjeweisheimer.bsky.social Daniel Befort, Julia Lockwood and John Slattery.

We find that 7 out of 8 systems overestimated global temperature trends

rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...

🧵

The Representation of Surface Temperature Trends in C3S Seasonal Forecast Systems

The representation of surface temperature trends in C3S seasonal forecast systems. Seasonal forecast models mostly warm faster than observations. Shown are histograms of ensembles of global-mean tren...

rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com

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Reposted by Antje Weisheimer

Doug Parker @dougparkermeteo.bsky.social · Aug 13

Our paper showing the differences between European and African weather forecast accuracy has appeared online. The results will not surprise meteorologists, but the international development community needs to hear this.

Weather forecasting in Africa needs to be done differently.

John Marsham @johnmarsham.bsky.social · Aug 13

New paper from Richard Keane
rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
Both physical and machine-learning (ML) models "perform better on smaller scales and shorter lead times at middle latitudes and on larger scales and longer lead times at tropical latitudes."

Mid‐Latitude Versus Tropical Scales of Predictability and Their Implications for Forecasting

We show that forecasts perform better in mid-latitudes on shorter scales, and better in tropical latitudes on longer scales (quantified here over Europe and Africa), with a ‘crossover’ at 5–7 days, f....

rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com

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Reposted by Antje Weisheimer

John Kennedy @micefearboggis.bsky.social · Aug 12

With another exceptional heatwave in Europe, I have updated my post on temperature-related mortality during the early summer heatwave.

diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2025/07/09/i...

Isomorts

The advances in modern science are such that we can now attribute deaths in a heatwave to climate change. In fact, so advanced is the science that neither heat nor deaths need to have happened. We …

diagrammonkey.wordpress.com

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Reposted by Antje Weisheimer

University of Oxford @ox.ac.uk · Aug 12

🌍 | To face the challenges of climate change, society will need to adapt and become more resilient.

@oxfordphysics.bsky.social ‪Dr Antje Weisheimer and and @oxengsci.bsky.social‬ Prof Felix Leach explain why this is important. ⬇️
www.ox.ac.uk/climate-and-...

#OxfordClimate

Adapting and thriving in a rapidly changing climate

Researchers from Oxford discuss what is meant by adaptation and resilience, and how climate change is affecting human lives. They also explain how the changing climate is affecting food and the health...

www.ox.ac.uk

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Antje Weisheimer @antjeweisheimer.bsky.social · Aug 6

I also admire how the plots in Fig 2 are aptly labelled "Choas graph".

Reposted by Antje Weisheimer

World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) @wcrpclimate.bsky.social · Aug 6

Less than one month to apply: Allianz Climate Risk Award 2025!

Up to €7,000 in awards

📅 Apply by August 31, 2025
More info: https://loom.ly/gaP_nDA

#ClimateResearch #AllianzClimateAward #WCRP

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Reposted by Antje Weisheimer

Met Office - weather and climate @metoffice.gov.uk · Aug 5

Storm Floris has now cleared the UK, and is tracking across Norway today

Here’s a 24 hour satellite view showing Floris crossing the UK on Monday 🛰️

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Reposted by Antje Weisheimer

Tim Woollings @timwoollings.bsky.social · Jul 29

Job alert: we are looking for a postdoc to join the Atmospheric Dynamics group in Oxford to study Arctic atmospheric dynamics. The focus is on energy transfers between scales and implications for predictability. More details here: tinyurl.com/yc6h4b35

Job Details

tinyurl.com

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