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Doug Parker @dougparkermeteo.bsky.social · 28d

I'm honoured to have represented @universityofleeds.bsky.social today at the 30th anniversary of the Queen Elizabeth Prizes at the Mansion House in London. Here I am with Alan Haywood, and our good friend Sue Gray from Reading.

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Doug Parker @dougparkermeteo.bsky.social · Aug 13

What meteorologists should be interested to learn is that machine learning based forecasts share exactly the same Europe-Africa differences as traditional models. This supports the principle of fundamental chaotic limits on forecast accuracy, differing between regions, that no models can beat.

Doug Parker @dougparkermeteo.bsky.social · Aug 13

Our paper showing the differences between European and African weather forecast accuracy has appeared online. The results will not surprise meteorologists, but the international development community needs to hear this.

Weather forecasting in Africa needs to be done differently.

John Marsham @johnmarsham.bsky.social · Aug 13

New paper from Richard Keane
rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
Both physical and machine-learning (ML) models "perform better on smaller scales and shorter lead times at middle latitudes and on larger scales and longer lead times at tropical latitudes."

Mid‐Latitude Versus Tropical Scales of Predictability and Their Implications for Forecasting

We show that forecasts perform better in mid-latitudes on shorter scales, and better in tropical latitudes on longer scales (quantified here over Europe and Africa), with a ‘crossover’ at 5–7 days, f....

rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com

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Doug Parker @dougparkermeteo.bsky.social · Jul 18

I had a SWIFT reunion with Dr Bethwel Mutai from University of Nairobi who's here for the Scenarios Forum. Bethwel is doing great work in Kenya and Somalia on severe weather prediction.

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Reposted by Doug Parker

Priestley Centre for Climate Futures @priestleycentre.bsky.social · Jul 16

We're delighted to welcome over 300 delegates to the University of Leeds (and plenty more online) for Scenarios Forum 2025 ✨

Over the next 3 days, experts from across the world will meet to explore the development of global change scenarios, their application, and relevance to diverse challenges.

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Doug Parker @dougparkermeteo.bsky.social · Jul 16

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
In this new paper we describe the trade off between forecast precision and accuracy. The smaller the location you are considering, the lower your forecast accuracy and to get acceptable accuracy we need to increase the spatial scale, the longer we try to predict

Balancing accuracy versus precision: Enhancing the usability of sub-seasonal forecasts

Forecasts are essential for climate adaptation and preparedness, such as in early warning systems and impact models. A key limitation to their practic…

www.sciencedirect.com

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Doug Parker @dougparkermeteo.bsky.social · Jul 14

johnhammersley.substack.com/p/dialogue-b...
Art? Philosophy? Fluid Dynamics? Chaos? I very much enjoyed a dialogue with John Hammersley, which he has turned into something unique.

Dialogue between an artist and Flow

John Hammersley and Douglas Parker

johnhammersley.substack.com

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Reposted by Doug Parker

University of Leeds @universityofleeds.bsky.social · Apr 24

We’re teaming up with institutions in Ghana to combat climate challenges and nurture the next generation of scientists.

Ghana is vulnerable to lightning and storms, but researchers are working together to install ground-based data sensors across Ghana to help improve storm prediction. 🔭🌍

Dark skies loom over a street in Ghana. Cars travel up and down the street, with multiple people stood by the side of the road.

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Reposted by Doug Parker

John Marsham @johnmarsham.bsky.social · Apr 25

@ukceh.bsky.social

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Doug Parker @dougparkermeteo.bsky.social · Apr 25

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
People associate tropical deforestation with carbon loss and ecological impacts. The deforestation also causes a reduction in rainfall, as we show in this paper.

Recent Forest Loss in the Brazilian Amazon Causes Substantial Reductions in Dry Season Precipitation

Recent forest loss (3.2%) in the Brazilian Amazon causes a mean 5.4% reduction in dry season precipitation 76.9% of reduced precipitation is due to decreased nonlocal water vapor, not local evapo...

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com

Reposted by Doug Parker

J. R. Carpenter @jrcarpenter.bsky.social · Apr 9

Leeds launch event for Measures of Weather —Thursday 1 May 18.30 at Workshop Theatre. I’ll be in conversation with Professor of Meteorology @dougparkermeteo.bsky.social FREE! Save the date! Book tickets via Eventbrite. And please share! www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/launch-of-...

LEEDS BOOK LAUNCH EVENT
Join us for an evening of poetry and conversation with poet JR Carpenter and meteorologist Doug Parker to launch JR's new poetry collection
Measures of Weather (Shearsman Books, 2025)
Thursday 1 May, Workshop Theatre, Leeds, 18.30
Everyone is welcome.
Admission is free.
Book tickets via Eventbrite

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Doug Parker @dougparkermeteo.bsky.social · Apr 11

youtu.be/nzPzvdbswnI?...
You can now view our panel discussion on the future of African weather forecasting, from the Turing Centre's AIUK event last month.

How will AI transform weather forecasting in Africa

YouTube video by AI UK

youtu.be

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Doug Parker @dougparkermeteo.bsky.social · Apr 6

poetry.leeds.ac.uk/events/launc...
I have been invited to contribute to the launch of J R Carpenter's collection of poetry exploring weather and its relations to language, culture and science. All welcome, 1st May at 1830.

Launch of J.R. Carpenter's Measures of Weather | University of Leeds Poetry Centre

poetry.leeds.ac.uk

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Doug Parker @dougparkermeteo.bsky.social · Apr 4

As global temperatures rise, storms are getting more extreme. Our new study in Nature Geoscience led by @drexomole.bsky.social shows how the feedback with soil moisture makes them more extreme still, in various hotspots around the world.

University of Leeds Press Office @unileedsnews.bsky.social · Apr 4

Large contrasts in soil moisture levels can increase the intensity of destructive storms ⛈️ which cause flooding and mudslides in hotspots across the globe, according to new research by @ukceh.bsky.social @johnmarsham.bsky.social @dougparkermeteo.bsky.social
www.leeds.ac.uk/main-index/n...

Soil conditions significantly increase rainfall in megastorm hotspots

Large contrasts in soil moisture levels over a wide area can increase the size and intensity of so-called megastorms which cause flooding and mudslides in hotspots across the globe.

www.leeds.ac.uk

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Doug Parker @dougparkermeteo.bsky.social · Mar 24

WISER-EWSA friends, Nico from SAWS, Peggy from ZMD and @adriaanper.bsky.social from Tyrsky, Finland, as guests of the Mozambique met office, INAM, for World Meteorological Day and the 75th anniversary of the World Meteorological Organisation. This afternoon, back to nowcasting of storms.

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Doug Parker @dougparkermeteo.bsky.social · Mar 21

www.theguardian.com/technology/2...
They are calling this the second revolution in AI weather prediction. Very exciting. We have been working with this team at Turing & Cambridge and with our West African partners to develop plans to use these models to better support African agriculture.

AI-driven weather prediction breakthrough reported

Researchers say Aardvark Weather uses thousands of times less computing power and is much faster than current systems

www.theguardian.com

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Doug Parker @dougparkermeteo.bsky.social · Mar 17

Nice family group at the AI-UK meeting. Caroline Bain from @metoffice.bsky.social was my former PhD student and @michaelbaidu.bsky.social was hers. We are all on a panel to discuss the opportunities of AI forecasting for Africa.

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Doug Parker @dougparkermeteo.bsky.social · Mar 17

ai-uk.turing.ac.uk/programme-20...
I'm travelling to London this morning with @michaelbaidu.bsky.social to join a panel discussion at AI-UK, the UK's showcase for data science and AI. "How will AI transform weather forecasting in Africa?"

Programme – The Alan Turing Institute

ai-uk.turing.ac.uk

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Doug Parker @dougparkermeteo.bsky.social · Mar 12

It was lovely to catch up with Jemimah Gacheru from Kenya Meteorological Department today. Jemimah was visiting Leeds during her secondment at @ukceh.bsky.social .

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Doug Parker @dougparkermeteo.bsky.social · Mar 3

luckysoap.com/apictureofwi...
I had the pleasure of meeting @jrcarpenter.bsky.social today, a practising poet and artist working at @universityofleeds.bsky.social. She is fascinated by history, culture and language in meteorology. I find this web page of hers to be quite haunting.

This is a Picture of Wind || J. R. Carpenter

Part poetic almanac, part private weather diary, and part live wind report for the South West of England, this work calls attention to climate change by picturing through variations in language distur...

luckysoap.com

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Doug Parker @dougparkermeteo.bsky.social · Feb 28

www.meteo.gov.gh/news/ghana-v...

Ghana Validates Comprehensive Roadmap for Early Warning Systems GMet CMS

In a decisive step toward strengthening Ghana’s resilience against climate-induced hazards, stakeholders convened for a Validation Workshop and Roadmap Presentation aimed at refining the nation’s early warning system. This was a follow-up to the Early Warning for All (EW4All) launch and consultative workshop held in October 2024. Anchored by the UN Secretary General’s Early Warning for All initiative, which seeks universal protection from hazardous events by 2027. The event underscored the urgency of safeguarding lives and livelihoods through a multi-hazard, people-centered approach.

www.meteo.gov.gh

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Reposted by Doug Parker

University of Leeds Press Office @unileedsnews.bsky.social · Feb 18

Great to see @domspracklen.bsky.social explaining this fascinating @universityofleeds.bsky.social study showing that reintroducing wolves to the Scottish Highlands could help address the climate emergency 🐺

Read the full story 👇
bit.ly/4hFeNvM

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Reposted by Doug Parker

Andy Dougill @andydougill.bsky.social · Feb 15

New: Understanding the barriers and knowledge gaps to climate-smart agriculture & climate information services: A multi-stakeholder analysis of smallholder farmers’ uptake in Ghana - www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Understanding the barriers and knowledge gaps to climate-smart agriculture and climate information services: A multi-stakeholder analysis of smallholder farmers’ uptake in Ghana

The uptake of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) and climate information services (CIS) among Ghanaian smallholder farmers remains low despite their prom…

www.sciencedirect.com

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Doug Parker @dougparkermeteo.bsky.social · Feb 16

ml-env-for.leeds.ac.uk/indabax-mada...

This hackathon organised in Madagascar by one of our students, Mendrika Rakotomanga, showed how AI is democratising weather prediction. 18 student participants were able to create an accurate AI based nowcasting system.

IndabaX Madagascar 2024 | Machine-learning for environmental prediction

ml-env-for.leeds.ac.uk

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Doug Parker @dougparkermeteo.bsky.social · Feb 13

www.leeds.ac.uk/main-index/n...

Improving early warnings of thunderstorms

Meteorological experts and students are working together to improve early warnings of severe thunderstorms in Southern Africa.

www.leeds.ac.uk