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A majority of traders expect Trump’s approval rating to fall by another ~5 points this year, pushing it to ~37% -- implying a net approval around -22, worse than his post-Jan 6, 2021 levels.

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Our weekly presidential approval market gives Trump just 17% odds of an approval uptick in the coming days.

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Democrats also have a 1 in 3 chance of winning control of the U.S. Senate per Kalshi, a number that has ticked up in recent days amidst reports that Mary Peltola may run for Senate in Alaska.

Apr 1, 2025: 🔴 81% R 🔵 19% D
Dec 1, 2025: 🔴 71% R 🔵 29% D
Now: 🔴 67% R 🔵 33% D

Democrats currently have 77% odds of taking back control of the U.S. House per Kalshi.

Apr 11, 2025 (Dem high): 🔴 15% R 🔵 85% D
Oct 20, 2025 (GOP high): 🔴 44% R 🔵 56% D
Now: 🔴 23% R 🔵 77% D

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A majority of traders expect Trump’s approval rating to fall by another 4.5 points in 2026, pushing it below 38% -- implying a net approval around -20, even worse than his post-Jan 6, 2021 levels.

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Our weekly presidential approval market gives Trump 55% odds of an approval uptick in the coming days, amid uncertainty over how the Venezuela military operation may play with the public.

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Democrats also have a 1 in 3 chance of winning control of the U.S. Senate per Kalshi, a number that has been ticking up throughout the year.

Apr 1: 🔴 81% R 🔵 19% D
Dec 1: 🔴 71% R 🔵 29% D
Now: 🔴 67% R 🔵 33% D

Democrats currently have 76% odds of taking back control of the U.S. House per Kalshi.
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Our presidential approval marks puts just 26% odds on Trump’s approval ticking up next week.
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Traders on our Vance favorability market on Kalshi expect his overall favorability rating to be above 40% on January 1. kalshi.com/markets/kxvo...