Will Royce
@willroyce.bsky.social
250 followers 420 following 140 posts
Researcher. Writing about the administration of the welfare state @ willroyce.substack.com
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willroyce.bsky.social
I'm starting a newsletter (ik, ik) focused on the administration of the welfare state. It's called Makeshift Arrangements, which is a reference to my favorite Frances Perkins quote. First full piece out tomorrow.

Read more below! Free to subscribe, and hey, you can always just unsubscribe later.
Presenting MAKESHIFT ARRANGEMENTS
A newsletter about the administration of the welfare state.
willroyce.substack.com
willroyce.bsky.social
Always funny to get updates from DOGE
willroyce.bsky.social
Apparently I accidentally stole the color scheme for my Substack from Baker McKenzie
Reposted by Will Royce
josephpolitano.bsky.social
NEW

US labor market flows remained sluggish in August, as hiring slowed to the lowest level since early COVID

The hiring rate fell to 3.2%, layoffs fell to 1.1%, quits fell to 1.9%, and job openings rose to 4.3%
A graph of JOLTS data
willroyce.bsky.social
Really interesting story in @404media.co on how lawyers explain themselves when they are caught using AI-hallucinated citations www.404media.co/18-lawyers-c...
willroyce.bsky.social
Thankfully we have 37 years to address this, assuming 2% inflation
willroyce.bsky.social
It would be really funny (tragic) if the max SSI benefit amount surpassed $2,000 without Congress altering the asset limit. An SSI beneficiary would presumably be made ineligible for SSI benefits upon receiving them.
willroyce.bsky.social
One weird trick to getting your insured unemployment rate down, and thereby making it unlikely that extended benefits will trigger in your state: Administer unemployment benefits as a lump sum rather than a weekly payment. (Or just cut the duration of benefits. That works too.)
willroyce.bsky.social
The "insured unemployment rate" is a strange metric to use for automatically extending unemployment benefits. But that's exactly what we do. I wrote about it. Lots of charts, if you're into that sort of thing.
The Weird Way We Automatically Extend Unemployment Benefits
The “insured unemployment rate” plays an important role in our unemployment insurance system. Should it?
willroyce.substack.com
willroyce.bsky.social
I'm starting a newsletter (ik, ik) focused on the administration of the welfare state. It's called Makeshift Arrangements, which is a reference to my favorite Frances Perkins quote. First full piece out tomorrow.

Read more below! Free to subscribe, and hey, you can always just unsubscribe later.
Presenting MAKESHIFT ARRANGEMENTS
A newsletter about the administration of the welfare state.
willroyce.substack.com
willroyce.bsky.social
Anyone who is reading this who has worked with the SIPP: am I correct in thinking that there is no way to directly observe respondents' hours worked within the reference month? Because I would really like to do that and the way that weeks are coded make it not possible.
willroyce.bsky.social
New HSGAC D staff report: DOGE had armed security at SSA. Per officials cited in the report, this was because "some DOGE staff felt threatened based on a communication with an SSA employee that 'included cursing.'"

But when cmte staff viewed the DOGE workspace, it was empty—DOGE worked remotely.
Reposted by Will Royce
ryanlcooper.com
in Greenland, the government owns a bunch of businesses--a fishing company that is the largest single employer, a shipping company, a ferry company, several retail and logistics companies, etc, and it all works pretty well?? I traveled there to investigate: prospect.org/world/2025-0...
This Greenland Is Red
The small island nation has one of the largest and most successful portfolios of state-owned companies in the world. What?
prospect.org
willroyce.bsky.social
Are connected scatterplots really so bad? 😁
willroyce.bsky.social
Working on some extremely incomprehensible charts. Watch this space
willroyce.bsky.social
why did they remove the greatest hits :(
willroyce.bsky.social
my update tracker for DOGE dot gov seems to suggest that the updates will not converge to real time
willroyce.bsky.social
definitely am left wondering to what extent this divergence is real
willroyce.bsky.social
13% in latest jobs report, btw

(monthly estimates are noisy which is why chart below is six-month average)
willroyce.bsky.social
This is currently reflecting my lived experience
Reposted by Will Royce
socio-steve.bsky.social
Here is part I of my piece w/ Noa Rosinplotz on "ABAWDs," a category constructed to provide a rhetorical punching bag for politicians who want to cut the social safety net. This piece focuses on misconceptions about the group. Part II will be on the consequences of sorting folks by "deservingness."
rooseveltforward.org
“ABAWDs,” aren’t the lazy caricature politicians make them out to be.

They’re caregivers, neighbors, and workers trying to get by.

The latest #FiresideStacks 🔥 from @socio-steve.bsky.social and Noa Rosinplotz unveils the truth behind the rhetoric: www.firesidestacks.com/p/abawds-are...
Two individuals, one appearing elderly, look at a laptop in a kitchen, with text overlay emphasizing that ABAWDs are workers, caregivers, and neighbors, not political punching bags.