Michael Bateman
@wostem.bsky.social
“Only accidents, crimes, wars, will still kill us. Unfortunately, crimes, wars, will multiply.
I love football. Thank you.”
I love football. Thank you.”
Pinned
Michael Bateman
@wostem.bsky.social
· Aug 4
So much brain rot everywhere.
Reposted by Michael Bateman
To cut rates, you'd need to forecast inflation falling to 2% very soon (not likely) or an employment recession (possible).
The other possibility is that the neutral rate is lower than the models suggest (currently 1.5%). But even a neutral rate of 0.75% would suggest holding rates steady.
The other possibility is that the neutral rate is lower than the models suggest (currently 1.5%). But even a neutral rate of 0.75% would suggest holding rates steady.
Should the Fed raise rates in December?
Key estimates of the neutral rate are currently around 1.5%. With inflation stuck ~ 3%, a neutral Fed Funds rates would be around 4.5% (the current rate is accommodative).
Of course the Fed is also concerned about maximum sustainable employment ...
Key estimates of the neutral rate are currently around 1.5%. With inflation stuck ~ 3%, a neutral Fed Funds rates would be around 4.5% (the current rate is accommodative).
Of course the Fed is also concerned about maximum sustainable employment ...
November 26, 2025 at 12:24 AM
To cut rates, you'd need to forecast inflation falling to 2% very soon (not likely) or an employment recession (possible).
The other possibility is that the neutral rate is lower than the models suggest (currently 1.5%). But even a neutral rate of 0.75% would suggest holding rates steady.
The other possibility is that the neutral rate is lower than the models suggest (currently 1.5%). But even a neutral rate of 0.75% would suggest holding rates steady.
The war on science and safety is arguably the most perplexing of all initiatives
the AEB mandate was voluntarily adopted by the entire US auto industry because it has an unambiguous and independently validated impact on safety... eliminating it is the stupidest automotive safety proposal I have heard in my entire life
Exclusive: Republicans plan to challenge vehicle-safety mandates, such as automatic emergency braking and alarms that remind drivers a child is in the back seat.
November 25, 2025 at 9:12 PM
The war on science and safety is arguably the most perplexing of all initiatives
Reposted by Michael Bateman
More than a million Palestinians in Gaza are vulnerable to upcoming winter weather.
Israeli authorities for months have either blocked or partially restricted the entry of key shelter items, despite a ceasefire that requires the unfettered flow of aid.
Israeli authorities for months have either blocked or partially restricted the entry of key shelter items, despite a ceasefire that requires the unfettered flow of aid.
Lack of tents, food and warm clothes leaves Gazans exposed ahead of winter
As winter approaches in Gaza, more than a million residents are vulnerable to extreme weather and disease, as Israeli restrictions hobble the humanitarian response.
www.washingtonpost.com
November 25, 2025 at 5:00 PM
More than a million Palestinians in Gaza are vulnerable to upcoming winter weather.
Israeli authorities for months have either blocked or partially restricted the entry of key shelter items, despite a ceasefire that requires the unfettered flow of aid.
Israeli authorities for months have either blocked or partially restricted the entry of key shelter items, despite a ceasefire that requires the unfettered flow of aid.
Reposted by Michael Bateman
Means testing costs money, often more than it saves. Most families in poverty are in work. Most pensioners are not in poverty. People who are hanging around a town centre at 11am are not representative of the general population.
November 25, 2025 at 1:08 PM
Means testing costs money, often more than it saves. Most families in poverty are in work. Most pensioners are not in poverty. People who are hanging around a town centre at 11am are not representative of the general population.
Reposted by Michael Bateman
A new study reveals that current lung cancer screening guidelines could be missing most cases, prompting calls for changes to detect the disease earlier. https://wapo.st/43McS3I
November 25, 2025 at 12:00 PM
A new study reveals that current lung cancer screening guidelines could be missing most cases, prompting calls for changes to detect the disease earlier. https://wapo.st/43McS3I
Reposted by Michael Bateman
Nature is healing
The stars are lighting up again. 🔗 on.wsj.com/3Xf8uXi
With more actors, pop stars and other celebrities spotted unapologetically smoking, the cultural taboo against it shows signs of ebbing. That worries antismoking advocates.
With more actors, pop stars and other celebrities spotted unapologetically smoking, the cultural taboo against it shows signs of ebbing. That worries antismoking advocates.
November 24, 2025 at 11:24 PM
Nature is healing
Reposted by Michael Bateman
Also, “celebrities are making smoking cigarettes cool again” … bitch please, smoking cigs has always been cool. That’s the whole problem.
November 24, 2025 at 11:26 PM
Also, “celebrities are making smoking cigarettes cool again” … bitch please, smoking cigs has always been cool. That’s the whole problem.
When was the last time Hollywood made a proper comedy?
November 24, 2025 at 10:41 PM
When was the last time Hollywood made a proper comedy?
Reposted by Michael Bateman
Reposted by Michael Bateman
The 2008 crisis was the most deeply scarring event ever to befall housing, people keep trying to find some other explanation and there isn't one, thanks @deanbaker13.bsky.social
cepr.net/publications...
cepr.net/publications...
Ezra Klein Needs to Look More Closely at His Housing Chart
A look at why today’s housing shortage stems less from zoning and more from the long shadow of the 2008 housing bubble and its collapse.
cepr.net
November 24, 2025 at 6:33 PM
The 2008 crisis was the most deeply scarring event ever to befall housing, people keep trying to find some other explanation and there isn't one, thanks @deanbaker13.bsky.social
cepr.net/publications...
cepr.net/publications...
Well get to curing cancer soon but first
November 24, 2025 at 6:16 PM
Well get to curing cancer soon but first
Reposted by Michael Bateman
Republicans increasingly oppose requiring healthy kids to get MMR vaccines to attend public schools
2016 19%
2019 20%
2023 42%
2025 47%
www.pewresearch.org/science/2025... 🧪
2016 19%
2019 20%
2023 42%
2025 47%
www.pewresearch.org/science/2025... 🧪
November 23, 2025 at 10:30 PM
Republicans increasingly oppose requiring healthy kids to get MMR vaccines to attend public schools
2016 19%
2019 20%
2023 42%
2025 47%
www.pewresearch.org/science/2025... 🧪
2016 19%
2019 20%
2023 42%
2025 47%
www.pewresearch.org/science/2025... 🧪
Reposted by Michael Bateman
What's up with Cambridge people recently
November 21, 2025 at 11:44 AM
What's up with Cambridge people recently
I almost liked it better when wall street bros were in charge instead of tech bros
November 20, 2025 at 10:38 PM
I almost liked it better when wall street bros were in charge instead of tech bros
Reposted by Michael Bateman
Unless you’re gonna step up and ask Grok something like “who would do a more horrible holocaust?” then enough already with the screenshots
November 20, 2025 at 10:14 PM
Unless you’re gonna step up and ask Grok something like “who would do a more horrible holocaust?” then enough already with the screenshots
Reposted by Michael Bateman
Pyramid 2 is every bit as awesome, but a society optimised for pyramid building is going to be less good at many other things people want or need. But there are a lot of people whose livelihood and purpose are tied up in pyramid building now, so off you go building pyramid 3. It ends badly.
January 12, 2025 at 11:11 PM
Pyramid 2 is every bit as awesome, but a society optimised for pyramid building is going to be less good at many other things people want or need. But there are a lot of people whose livelihood and purpose are tied up in pyramid building now, so off you go building pyramid 3. It ends badly.
Reposted by Michael Bateman
You motivate your people to build pyramid 1. Big boost for your economy, everyone feels a sense of purpose, you have an awesome pyramid at the end. So you build pyramid 2, now that you have a society structured very well for building pyramids.
January 12, 2025 at 11:08 PM
You motivate your people to build pyramid 1. Big boost for your economy, everyone feels a sense of purpose, you have an awesome pyramid at the end. So you build pyramid 2, now that you have a society structured very well for building pyramids.
Reposted by Michael Bateman
This mindless throwing of money on ”AI” reminds me of a point made very well in the book Dreamland by Andri Snær Magnason, about why there are three great pyramids at Giza
‘Mainlined into UK’s veins’: Labour announces huge public rollout of AI
‘Mainlined into UK’s veins’: Labour announces huge public rollout of AI
Keir Starmer plans to ‘unleash’ technology with massive investment and deployment, despite public fears
Artificial intelligence will be “mainlined into the veins” of the nation, ministers have announced, with a multibillion-pound investment in the UK’s…
www.theguardian.com
January 12, 2025 at 11:05 PM
This mindless throwing of money on ”AI” reminds me of a point made very well in the book Dreamland by Andri Snær Magnason, about why there are three great pyramids at Giza
Reposted by Michael Bateman
For once, I think Burry is right. Not that there will be a crash but that it's built on some really questionable assumptions.
And they'd before we get to Openai auditor.
🤐
And they'd before we get to Openai auditor.
🤐
November 20, 2025 at 8:36 AM
For once, I think Burry is right. Not that there will be a crash but that it's built on some really questionable assumptions.
And they'd before we get to Openai auditor.
🤐
And they'd before we get to Openai auditor.
🤐
Reposted by Michael Bateman
Seeing as how everything is dependent on it, there's no way tech overlords or admin will let it fail easily. They'll go all in and they are
Breaking news: The Trump administration is drafting an executive order that would direct the Justice Department to sue states that pass laws regulating artificial intelligence, according to a copy reviewed by The Post.
White House drafts order directing Justice Department to sue states that pass AI regulations
The draft order comes after Republicans in Congress failed to pass a federal ban on state AI regulation, as more lawmakers raise concerns about the technology.
wapo.st
November 20, 2025 at 2:53 AM
Seeing as how everything is dependent on it, there's no way tech overlords or admin will let it fail easily. They'll go all in and they are
Seeing as how everything is dependent on it, there's no way tech overlords or admin will let it fail easily. They'll go all in and they are
Breaking news: The Trump administration is drafting an executive order that would direct the Justice Department to sue states that pass laws regulating artificial intelligence, according to a copy reviewed by The Post.
White House drafts order directing Justice Department to sue states that pass AI regulations
The draft order comes after Republicans in Congress failed to pass a federal ban on state AI regulation, as more lawmakers raise concerns about the technology.
wapo.st
November 20, 2025 at 2:53 AM
Seeing as how everything is dependent on it, there's no way tech overlords or admin will let it fail easily. They'll go all in and they are
Lately the term "values" has become increasingly congruous with hypocritical and aggressive cruelty. Almost a marker that what succeeds a a values announcement will be some form of moral or ethical depravity
November 19, 2025 at 1:39 PM
Lately the term "values" has become increasingly congruous with hypocritical and aggressive cruelty. Almost a marker that what succeeds a a values announcement will be some form of moral or ethical depravity