Yuriy Gorodnichenko
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
Economics Professor at UC Berkeley; from #Ukraine
February 7, 2026 at 5:24 PM
“As of late January 2026, the RUS campaign of large-scale strikes on UKR energy & efforts to plunge the population into darkness&cold haven'thad a significant impact on public moods”
RUS attacks (=war crimes) harden UKR resolve => war will go on
#UkrainianView
More: www.ft.com/content/5321...
RUS attacks (=war crimes) harden UKR resolve => war will go on
#UkrainianView
More: www.ft.com/content/5321...
February 5, 2026 at 8:37 PM
“As of late January 2026, the RUS campaign of large-scale strikes on UKR energy & efforts to plunge the population into darkness&cold haven'thad a significant impact on public moods”
RUS attacks (=war crimes) harden UKR resolve => war will go on
#UkrainianView
More: www.ft.com/content/5321...
RUS attacks (=war crimes) harden UKR resolve => war will go on
#UkrainianView
More: www.ft.com/content/5321...
Today Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to be the next chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve
Today U.S. Department of Justice released a new batch of Epstein files. Name "Kevin Warsh" is in one of the files
www.justice.gov/epstein/file...
Today U.S. Department of Justice released a new batch of Epstein files. Name "Kevin Warsh" is in one of the files
www.justice.gov/epstein/file...
January 31, 2026 at 3:10 AM
Today Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to be the next chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve
Today U.S. Department of Justice released a new batch of Epstein files. Name "Kevin Warsh" is in one of the files
www.justice.gov/epstein/file...
Today U.S. Department of Justice released a new batch of Epstein files. Name "Kevin Warsh" is in one of the files
www.justice.gov/epstein/file...
On 1/22/2014, Yanykovych's thugs killed 3 people at the Maidan protest. The gov't lied...
Protests continued anyway.
On Feb 20, they shot many more people. But Yanukovych&his mafia state were deposed.
The slain activists are known in #Ukraine as the Heavenly Hundred.
This was 12 years ago
Protests continued anyway.
On Feb 20, they shot many more people. But Yanukovych&his mafia state were deposed.
The slain activists are known in #Ukraine as the Heavenly Hundred.
This was 12 years ago
January 25, 2026 at 9:33 PM
On 1/22/2014, Yanykovych's thugs killed 3 people at the Maidan protest. The gov't lied...
Protests continued anyway.
On Feb 20, they shot many more people. But Yanukovych&his mafia state were deposed.
The slain activists are known in #Ukraine as the Heavenly Hundred.
This was 12 years ago
Protests continued anyway.
On Feb 20, they shot many more people. But Yanukovych&his mafia state were deposed.
The slain activists are known in #Ukraine as the Heavenly Hundred.
This was 12 years ago
Another key issue for UKR: debt overhang. Public debt is >100% of GDP.
There has to be massive write-off/restructuring.
If this is not done, public debt can weigh heavily on UKR economic growth.
There has to be massive write-off/restructuring.
If this is not done, public debt can weigh heavily on UKR economic growth.
January 6, 2026 at 11:25 PM
Another key issue for UKR: debt overhang. Public debt is >100% of GDP.
There has to be massive write-off/restructuring.
If this is not done, public debt can weigh heavily on UKR economic growth.
There has to be massive write-off/restructuring.
If this is not done, public debt can weigh heavily on UKR economic growth.
One hope that post-war Ukraine can have a higher saving rate (~20%), similar to what happened in W. Europe after World War II but it can take some time before we get there while $ is needed immediately.
January 6, 2026 at 11:23 PM
One hope that post-war Ukraine can have a higher saving rate (~20%), similar to what happened in W. Europe after World War II but it can take some time before we get there while $ is needed immediately.
The composition of inflows into countries is very different
Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and other war affected countries rely on remittances
Poland, Hungary, Czechia, etc. rely on FDI and EU structural funds
Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and other war affected countries rely on remittances
Poland, Hungary, Czechia, etc. rely on FDI and EU structural funds
January 6, 2026 at 11:20 PM
The composition of inflows into countries is very different
Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and other war affected countries rely on remittances
Poland, Hungary, Czechia, etc. rely on FDI and EU structural funds
Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and other war affected countries rely on remittances
Poland, Hungary, Czechia, etc. rely on FDI and EU structural funds
In recent years, Ukraine relied a lot more on remittances but these are not FDI. Remittances often finance consumption; they do not give the same tech transfer, integration in global value chains, etc.
January 6, 2026 at 11:19 PM
In recent years, Ukraine relied a lot more on remittances but these are not FDI. Remittances often finance consumption; they do not give the same tech transfer, integration in global value chains, etc.
another big difference is the official funds for Ukraine vs. EU members.
Even if we ignore EU structural funds (which are huge), the per-accession EU flows into POL, HUN, etc. were much larger than flows into Ukraine.
EU viewed UKR as not a part of Europe ... but the RUS sphere of influence
Even if we ignore EU structural funds (which are huge), the per-accession EU flows into POL, HUN, etc. were much larger than flows into Ukraine.
EU viewed UKR as not a part of Europe ... but the RUS sphere of influence
January 6, 2026 at 11:17 PM
another big difference is the official funds for Ukraine vs. EU members.
Even if we ignore EU structural funds (which are huge), the per-accession EU flows into POL, HUN, etc. were much larger than flows into Ukraine.
EU viewed UKR as not a part of Europe ... but the RUS sphere of influence
Even if we ignore EU structural funds (which are huge), the per-accession EU flows into POL, HUN, etc. were much larger than flows into Ukraine.
EU viewed UKR as not a part of Europe ... but the RUS sphere of influence
An important source of differences in capital accumulation was the low flow of FDI into Ukraine
January 6, 2026 at 11:11 PM
An important source of differences in capital accumulation was the low flow of FDI into Ukraine
It is stunning how much capital stock in Ukraine decreased after 1991 while new EU members increased it dramatically.
This contributed to the stagnation of income in Ukraine.
This contributed to the stagnation of income in Ukraine.
January 6, 2026 at 11:10 PM
It is stunning how much capital stock in Ukraine decreased after 1991 while new EU members increased it dramatically.
This contributed to the stagnation of income in Ukraine.
This contributed to the stagnation of income in Ukraine.
August 15, 2025 at 8:25 PM
RE Trump's talk to impose sanctions on countries importing Russian oil/gas:
The Hall of Shame is public knowledge: China, India, Turkey, Singapore, Egypt, Brazil.
#UkrainianView
The Hall of Shame is public knowledge: China, India, Turkey, Singapore, Egypt, Brazil.
#UkrainianView
July 15, 2025 at 12:42 AM
RE Trump's talk to impose sanctions on countries importing Russian oil/gas:
The Hall of Shame is public knowledge: China, India, Turkey, Singapore, Egypt, Brazil.
#UkrainianView
The Hall of Shame is public knowledge: China, India, Turkey, Singapore, Egypt, Brazil.
#UkrainianView
Czech President Petr Pavel opened the 2 annual Discussion Forum (Global&European Challenges for Security&Economic Policy) organized by #CERGE-EI
A lively discussion on today’s most pressing security/econ issues, with a focus on #Europe & the sense of urgency in a shifting geopolitical landscape.
A lively discussion on today’s most pressing security/econ issues, with a focus on #Europe & the sense of urgency in a shifting geopolitical landscape.
May 31, 2025 at 3:23 AM
Trump says if RUS tanks did not get stuck in the mud, they would have been in Kyiv. The photo shows how the "mud" looked like in reality.
Make no mistake: it was the heroism of Ukrainians that stopped Rus tanks
#UkrainianView
Make no mistake: it was the heroism of Ukrainians that stopped Rus tanks
#UkrainianView
May 17, 2025 at 1:13 PM
Trump says if RUS tanks did not get stuck in the mud, they would have been in Kyiv. The photo shows how the "mud" looked like in reality.
Make no mistake: it was the heroism of Ukrainians that stopped Rus tanks
#UkrainianView
Make no mistake: it was the heroism of Ukrainians that stopped Rus tanks
#UkrainianView
Trump: Russia not taking over #Ukraine is a concession
In 1938 @ Munich, Hitler made a concession too: GER will not occupy the rest of Czechoslovakia but Czechoslovakia has to cede the Sudetenland to the Reich.
Germany occupied Czechoslovakia anyway 6 months later. Then we had WW2
#UkrainianView
In 1938 @ Munich, Hitler made a concession too: GER will not occupy the rest of Czechoslovakia but Czechoslovakia has to cede the Sudetenland to the Reich.
Germany occupied Czechoslovakia anyway 6 months later. Then we had WW2
#UkrainianView
April 25, 2025 at 5:43 PM
Trump: Russia not taking over #Ukraine is a concession
In 1938 @ Munich, Hitler made a concession too: GER will not occupy the rest of Czechoslovakia but Czechoslovakia has to cede the Sudetenland to the Reich.
Germany occupied Czechoslovakia anyway 6 months later. Then we had WW2
#UkrainianView
In 1938 @ Munich, Hitler made a concession too: GER will not occupy the rest of Czechoslovakia but Czechoslovakia has to cede the Sudetenland to the Reich.
Germany occupied Czechoslovakia anyway 6 months later. Then we had WW2
#UkrainianView
Another RUS attack on Kyiv and other #Ukraine cities.... in Kyiv, at least 2 are dead and scores are injured.
Trump says he has a deal with RUS and he needs a deal with Ukraine.
This is how they nudge Ukraine to accept unacceptable
#UkrainianView
Trump says he has a deal with RUS and he needs a deal with Ukraine.
This is how they nudge Ukraine to accept unacceptable
#UkrainianView
April 24, 2025 at 3:10 AM
Another RUS attack on Kyiv and other #Ukraine cities.... in Kyiv, at least 2 are dead and scores are injured.
Trump says he has a deal with RUS and he needs a deal with Ukraine.
This is how they nudge Ukraine to accept unacceptable
#UkrainianView
Trump says he has a deal with RUS and he needs a deal with Ukraine.
This is how they nudge Ukraine to accept unacceptable
#UkrainianView
This is how a "mistake" looks like in real life
April 14, 2025 at 5:50 AM
This is how a "mistake" looks like in real life
Somebody just passed a cognitive test and now reports the russia made a "mistake" by striking the downtown of Sumy and killing scores of #Ukraine civilians...
#UkrainianView
#UkrainianView
April 14, 2025 at 5:48 AM
Somebody just passed a cognitive test and now reports the russia made a "mistake" by striking the downtown of Sumy and killing scores of #Ukraine civilians...
#UkrainianView
#UkrainianView
Vance says there is ceasefire in #Ukraine. In reality, Russia attacks Ukrainian cities every day.
Instead of reading "stories" about Ukraine, Vance should accept Zelensky's invitation and come to Ukraine to see things first hand. Plus reception may be less chilly than in Greenland.
#UkrainianView
Instead of reading "stories" about Ukraine, Vance should accept Zelensky's invitation and come to Ukraine to see things first hand. Plus reception may be less chilly than in Greenland.
#UkrainianView
March 29, 2025 at 2:57 PM
Vance says there is ceasefire in #Ukraine. In reality, Russia attacks Ukrainian cities every day.
Instead of reading "stories" about Ukraine, Vance should accept Zelensky's invitation and come to Ukraine to see things first hand. Plus reception may be less chilly than in Greenland.
#UkrainianView
Instead of reading "stories" about Ukraine, Vance should accept Zelensky's invitation and come to Ukraine to see things first hand. Plus reception may be less chilly than in Greenland.
#UkrainianView
Fresh sociological data from #Ukraine:
1) Are Ukrainians willing to have peace at any price? Hell no!
2) Are Ukrainians ready to continue fighting 🇷🇺 aggression if US drops out? Hell yes!
🇺🇸&others have been grossly underestimating 🇺🇦...
#UkrianianView
More here: www.kiis.com.ua?lang=eng&cat...
1) Are Ukrainians willing to have peace at any price? Hell no!
2) Are Ukrainians ready to continue fighting 🇷🇺 aggression if US drops out? Hell yes!
🇺🇸&others have been grossly underestimating 🇺🇦...
#UkrianianView
More here: www.kiis.com.ua?lang=eng&cat...
March 25, 2025 at 9:30 PM
Fresh sociological data from #Ukraine:
1) Are Ukrainians willing to have peace at any price? Hell no!
2) Are Ukrainians ready to continue fighting 🇷🇺 aggression if US drops out? Hell yes!
🇺🇸&others have been grossly underestimating 🇺🇦...
#UkrianianView
More here: www.kiis.com.ua?lang=eng&cat...
1) Are Ukrainians willing to have peace at any price? Hell no!
2) Are Ukrainians ready to continue fighting 🇷🇺 aggression if US drops out? Hell yes!
🇺🇸&others have been grossly underestimating 🇺🇦...
#UkrianianView
More here: www.kiis.com.ua?lang=eng&cat...
Witkoff says RUS will not attack Europe because there is NATO and so Europe feels safe.
Yes, this is why Europe wants to spend 800 billion euros on defense.
Of course, you can believe Witkoff.
Yes, this is why Europe wants to spend 800 billion euros on defense.
Of course, you can believe Witkoff.
March 23, 2025 at 5:49 PM
Witkoff says RUS will not attack Europe because there is NATO and so Europe feels safe.
Yes, this is why Europe wants to spend 800 billion euros on defense.
Of course, you can believe Witkoff.
Yes, this is why Europe wants to spend 800 billion euros on defense.
Of course, you can believe Witkoff.
Mike Waltz said today that cease fire has been in effect since Trump called Putin.
Reality check: Russia has been attacking #Ukraine every day. Today at least 3 people in Kyiv were killed by Russian drones
Of course, don't believe your lying eyes. Believe what Putin tells you.
#UkrainianView
Reality check: Russia has been attacking #Ukraine every day. Today at least 3 people in Kyiv were killed by Russian drones
Of course, don't believe your lying eyes. Believe what Putin tells you.
#UkrainianView
March 23, 2025 at 5:43 PM
Mike Waltz said today that cease fire has been in effect since Trump called Putin.
Reality check: Russia has been attacking #Ukraine every day. Today at least 3 people in Kyiv were killed by Russian drones
Of course, don't believe your lying eyes. Believe what Putin tells you.
#UkrainianView
Reality check: Russia has been attacking #Ukraine every day. Today at least 3 people in Kyiv were killed by Russian drones
Of course, don't believe your lying eyes. Believe what Putin tells you.
#UkrainianView
What are the effects of macroeconomic #uncertainty on consumers&firms?
In short, randomized controlled trials show that macroeconomic uncertainty inhibits econ activity
Economic Policy Uncertainty index is now higher than it was during COVID.
This means a higher prob of a recession
#EconSky
In short, randomized controlled trials show that macroeconomic uncertainty inhibits econ activity
Economic Policy Uncertainty index is now higher than it was during COVID.
This means a higher prob of a recession
#EconSky
March 17, 2025 at 8:31 PM
What are the effects of macroeconomic #uncertainty on consumers&firms?
In short, randomized controlled trials show that macroeconomic uncertainty inhibits econ activity
Economic Policy Uncertainty index is now higher than it was during COVID.
This means a higher prob of a recession
#EconSky
In short, randomized controlled trials show that macroeconomic uncertainty inhibits econ activity
Economic Policy Uncertainty index is now higher than it was during COVID.
This means a higher prob of a recession
#EconSky