Yuriy Gorodnichenko
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ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
5.4K followers 490 following 420 posts

Economics Professor at UC Berkeley; from #Ukraine

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko is an economist and Quantedge Presidential professor at the University of California, Berkeley.

Source: Wikipedia
Economics 87%
Business 9%
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ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · Nov 17
Almost two years ago, @cepr.org published an eBook with essays by prominent scholars & policymakers about the importance of supporting #Ukraine.

This book is more relevant than ever. Read it!

#UkrainianView

cepr.org/publications...

ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 10h
Given how things are evolving, more disagreement at the FOMC is likely
voxeu.org VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 17h
Cooper Howes, Marc Dordal i Carreras, Olivier Coibion, & @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social analyse historical FOMC meeting transcripts to show policymakers hold systematically different beliefs about monetary policy, and these belief gaps shape their preferred actions.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
This plots several measures of participant disagreement. The solid black line reports the total number of dissents per meeting. The dotted blue line plots the number of distinct Bluebook policy options (between A/B/C) preferred. The dashed red line plots the number of distinct target FFR preferences. All series are smoothed using a 13-meeting centred moving average. Shaded areas show NBER recessions. Federal Open Market Committee statements typically sound unanimous, but the Committee’s internal debates rarely are. This column analyses historical meeting transcripts to show that policymakers hold systematically different beliefs about how monetary policy affects the economy, and these belief gaps – rather than data disputes – shape their preferred actions. The findings highlight how such disagreements are resolved, why dissent is rare, and how the Chair’s influence steers policy, offering clear parallels to current monetary challenges.

Reposted by Yuriy Gorodnichenko

voxeu.org
VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 17h
Cooper Howes, Marc Dordal i Carreras, Olivier Coibion, & @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social analyse historical FOMC meeting transcripts to show policymakers hold systematically different beliefs about monetary policy, and these belief gaps shape their preferred actions.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
This plots several measures of participant disagreement. The solid black line reports the total number of dissents per meeting. The dotted blue line plots the number of distinct Bluebook policy options (between A/B/C) preferred. The dashed red line plots the number of distinct target FFR preferences. All series are smoothed using a 13-meeting centred moving average. Shaded areas show NBER recessions. Federal Open Market Committee statements typically sound unanimous, but the Committee’s internal debates rarely are. This column analyses historical meeting transcripts to show that policymakers hold systematically different beliefs about how monetary policy affects the economy, and these belief gaps – rather than data disputes – shape their preferred actions. The findings highlight how such disagreements are resolved, why dissent is rare, and how the Chair’s influence steers policy, offering clear parallels to current monetary challenges.

Reposted by Steven Heydemann, Yuriy Gorodnichenko

andersaslund.bsky.social
Anders Åslund @andersaslund.bsky.social · 2d
What I cannot understand is how any US policemen can be allowed to be:
1. Masked
2. Without name plates
3. Armed.
To anybody knowing European history this sounds like Hitler's brownshirts, also known as Sicherheitsabteilung (SA).

Reposted by Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Paolo Crosetto

jeeanews.bsky.social
jeeanews.bsky.social @jeeanews.bsky.social · 8d
Forthcoming article “The New Causal Macroeconomics of Surveys and Experiments” (Schumpeter Lecture 2025) by Olivier Coibion and @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social @eeanews.bsky.social

doi.org/10.1093/jeea...
Schumpeter Lecture 2025: The New Causal Macroeconomics of Surveys and Experiments
Abstract. We discuss how randomized control trials (RCTs) can be used to study the causal effects of expectations on the decisions of households, firms, an
doi.org

Reposted by Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Krzysztof Krakowski

olhazadorozhna.bsky.social
OlhaZadorozhna @olhazadorozhna.bsky.social · 11d
1/ 🎙️ New episode of Policy Implications!

I talk with @plvezina.bsky.social about Ukrainian refugees in Poland who aren’t just workers, but entrepreneurs creating new businesses and even boosting Polish firm creation.

This season is supported by @econ4ua.bsky.social and Kozminski University 💛💙

Reposted by Anne Applebaum, Stephen M. Walt, Kori Schake , and 88 more

federalreserve.gov
Federal Reserve @federalreserve.gov · 12d
Video message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=KckG...
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
Statement by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell
YouTube video by Federal Reserve
www.youtube.com

ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 15d
One of these reports is by @eribakova.bsky.social, @iikkakorhonen.bsky.social and me

ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 15d
Martin recommends reading these 4 reports:

www.bruegel.org/working-pape...

peacerep.org/publication/...

www.piie.com/publications...

www.researchgate.net/publication/...

Reposted by Markus Jäntti, Iikka Korhonen, Georg Weizsäcker

ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 15d
@martinsandbu.ft.com on the state of RUS economy

"The picture is clear. The RU economy is under enormous strain, & is running out of resources. ... The message for the west — what remains of it — is that the medicine (sanctions) is working, but the dose should be increased."

100%

#UkrainianView
Russia is running out of money
Go behind the propaganda, and the intensifying strain is evident
www.ft.com

ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 15d
Russia is truly interested in peace
Blackout in Ukraine leaves 1mn without power in freezing weather
Russian drone strikes trigger widespread electricity outage in two regions on Wednesday
www.ft.com

ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 17d
In summary:

A durable ceasefire or peace agreement will initiate a new epoch in Ukraine’s post-Soviet development. Foreign capital inflows, EU structural funds, and sustained investment, combined with institutional reforms, offer Ukraine a realistic path to reconstruction and income growth.

ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 17d
Why "You Only Live Twice" in the title of the paper?

This was inspired by:

"You only live twice:
Once when you are born,
And once when you look death in the face."

–Poem by James Bond in Ian Fleming’s You Only Live Twice (1964)

Ukraine is certainly looks death in the face now...

ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 17d
Another key issue for UKR: debt overhang. Public debt is >100% of GDP.

There has to be massive write-off/restructuring.

If this is not done, public debt can weigh heavily on UKR economic growth.

ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 17d
One hope that post-war Ukraine can have a higher saving rate (~20%), similar to what happened in W. Europe after World War II but it can take some time before we get there while $ is needed immediately.

ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 17d
The composition of inflows into countries is very different

Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and other war affected countries rely on remittances

Poland, Hungary, Czechia, etc. rely on FDI and EU structural funds

ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 17d
In recent years, Ukraine relied a lot more on remittances but these are not FDI. Remittances often finance consumption; they do not give the same tech transfer, integration in global value chains, etc.

ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 17d
another big difference is the official funds for Ukraine vs. EU members.

Even if we ignore EU structural funds (which are huge), the per-accession EU flows into POL, HUN, etc. were much larger than flows into Ukraine.

EU viewed UKR as not a part of Europe ... but the RUS sphere of influence

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 17d
An important source of differences in capital accumulation was the low flow of FDI into Ukraine

ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 17d
It is stunning how much capital stock in Ukraine decreased after 1991 while new EU members increased it dramatically.

This contributed to the stagnation of income in Ukraine.

ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 17d
This approach helps to raise incomes directly and can create a virtuous circle where capital deepening facilitates technological upgrades and repatriation of war refugees, which in turn stimulate more investment.

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen, Iryna Dronova

ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 17d
What is a safe growth strategy for post-war #Ukraine?

A new paper by Maurice Obstfeld and me sheds more light on this question:

The earlier accession of Eastern European countries to the EU& NATO offers a template that relies on massive FDI & public structural funds.

#UkrainianView
You only live twice: Financial inflows and growth in a westward-facing Ukraine
The monumental task of rebuilding postwar Ukraine requires early planning and identification of growth strategies. The earlier accession of Eastern European countries to the European Union and NATO of...
www.piie.com

Reposted by Yuriy Gorodnichenko

mchinn.bsky.social
Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 18d
Is true Russian GDP above or below 2021 levels? #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · Dec 22
So, so sad...

Reposted by Yuriy Gorodnichenko

robin-j-brooks.bsky.social
Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · Dec 19
Today is one of those days that shines a light on people's true intentions. Global long-term yields (red) are rising very sharply. If you're European and think issuing more debt into this is something to celebrate - instead of using Russian money - you don't have Europe's best interest at heart...

Reposted by Iikka Korhonen

ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · Dec 18
Consistent with a forecast from a while back

cepr.org/voxeu/column...
The Russian economy on a war footing: A new reality financed by commodity exports
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered unprecedented sanctions, causing an initial GDP drop. This column describes how Russia's economy rebounded due to increased public spending in war-related industries and construction. Military spending is expected to rise further in 2024, fuelled by high oil revenues, creating a tight labour market. Sanctions have limited Russia's access to high-tech goods, but war-related production remains robust. Consequently, military aid to Ukraine is crucial. Despite this recovery, Russia’s long-term growth potential has diminished.
cepr.org

Reposted by Steve Peers

ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · Dec 18
This is how moral hazard looks like: you invest $$$ into Putin/Russia knowing the high risks, and then you scream for a bailout/protection when things go south.

Raiffeisen, Unicredit, etc. had plenty of time to exit Russia

#UkrainianView #EconSky
Putin’s retaliation threat over frozen assets rattles EU capitals
Italy, Belgium and Austria worry about Russia moving against their companies
www.ft.com

ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · Dec 14
"The disabling of holdout members’ vetoes will do much more for the EU’s economic security than anything proposed in the strategy update."

100%

#UkrainianView
Brussels is finally flexing its muscle on Russian assets
The EU’s economic security depends on turning itself into more of a power player
giftarticle.ft.com

ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · Dec 11
free economic zone in the #Donbas???

Is there a free economic zone in Korea's DMZ?

The experience is clear: no security, no economy. Don't kid anybody with such proposals
Trump pushes for ‘free economic zone’ in Donbas, says Zelenskyy
US proposes ‘compromise’ option of demilitarised buffer that excludes both Ukrainian and Russian forces, says Kyiv
www.ft.com

ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · Dec 11
Terrific debate!
cepr.org Centre for Economic Policy Research @cepr.org · Dec 10
The Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs hosted the final panel of #CEPRParis2025. Nicole Gnesotto @delorsinstitute.bsky.social,
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.social, Ethan Ilzetzki (LSE), & @schularick.bsky.social discussed defence & strategic sovereignty. @martinsandbu.ft.com moderated. #EconSky

Reposted by Yuriy Gorodnichenko

cepr.org
Centre for Economic Policy Research @cepr.org · Dec 10
The Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs hosted the final panel of #CEPRParis2025. Nicole Gnesotto @delorsinstitute.bsky.social,
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.social, Ethan Ilzetzki (LSE), & @schularick.bsky.social discussed defence & strategic sovereignty. @martinsandbu.ft.com moderated. #EconSky