Yuriy Gorodnichenko
@ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
Economics Professor at UC Berkeley; from #Ukraine
One of these reports is by @eribakova.bsky.social, @iikkakorhonen.bsky.social and me
January 8, 2026 at 3:56 PM
One of these reports is by @eribakova.bsky.social, @iikkakorhonen.bsky.social and me
Martin recommends reading these 4 reports:
www.bruegel.org/working-pape...
peacerep.org/publication/...
www.piie.com/publications...
www.researchgate.net/publication/...
www.bruegel.org/working-pape...
peacerep.org/publication/...
www.piie.com/publications...
www.researchgate.net/publication/...
January 8, 2026 at 3:51 PM
Martin recommends reading these 4 reports:
www.bruegel.org/working-pape...
peacerep.org/publication/...
www.piie.com/publications...
www.researchgate.net/publication/...
www.bruegel.org/working-pape...
peacerep.org/publication/...
www.piie.com/publications...
www.researchgate.net/publication/...
In summary:
A durable ceasefire or peace agreement will initiate a new epoch in Ukraine’s post-Soviet development. Foreign capital inflows, EU structural funds, and sustained investment, combined with institutional reforms, offer Ukraine a realistic path to reconstruction and income growth.
A durable ceasefire or peace agreement will initiate a new epoch in Ukraine’s post-Soviet development. Foreign capital inflows, EU structural funds, and sustained investment, combined with institutional reforms, offer Ukraine a realistic path to reconstruction and income growth.
January 6, 2026 at 11:30 PM
In summary:
A durable ceasefire or peace agreement will initiate a new epoch in Ukraine’s post-Soviet development. Foreign capital inflows, EU structural funds, and sustained investment, combined with institutional reforms, offer Ukraine a realistic path to reconstruction and income growth.
A durable ceasefire or peace agreement will initiate a new epoch in Ukraine’s post-Soviet development. Foreign capital inflows, EU structural funds, and sustained investment, combined with institutional reforms, offer Ukraine a realistic path to reconstruction and income growth.
Why "You Only Live Twice" in the title of the paper?
This was inspired by:
"You only live twice:
Once when you are born,
And once when you look death in the face."
–Poem by James Bond in Ian Fleming’s You Only Live Twice (1964)
Ukraine is certainly looks death in the face now...
This was inspired by:
"You only live twice:
Once when you are born,
And once when you look death in the face."
–Poem by James Bond in Ian Fleming’s You Only Live Twice (1964)
Ukraine is certainly looks death in the face now...
January 6, 2026 at 11:27 PM
Why "You Only Live Twice" in the title of the paper?
This was inspired by:
"You only live twice:
Once when you are born,
And once when you look death in the face."
–Poem by James Bond in Ian Fleming’s You Only Live Twice (1964)
Ukraine is certainly looks death in the face now...
This was inspired by:
"You only live twice:
Once when you are born,
And once when you look death in the face."
–Poem by James Bond in Ian Fleming’s You Only Live Twice (1964)
Ukraine is certainly looks death in the face now...
Another key issue for UKR: debt overhang. Public debt is >100% of GDP.
There has to be massive write-off/restructuring.
If this is not done, public debt can weigh heavily on UKR economic growth.
There has to be massive write-off/restructuring.
If this is not done, public debt can weigh heavily on UKR economic growth.
January 6, 2026 at 11:25 PM
Another key issue for UKR: debt overhang. Public debt is >100% of GDP.
There has to be massive write-off/restructuring.
If this is not done, public debt can weigh heavily on UKR economic growth.
There has to be massive write-off/restructuring.
If this is not done, public debt can weigh heavily on UKR economic growth.
One hope that post-war Ukraine can have a higher saving rate (~20%), similar to what happened in W. Europe after World War II but it can take some time before we get there while $ is needed immediately.
January 6, 2026 at 11:23 PM
One hope that post-war Ukraine can have a higher saving rate (~20%), similar to what happened in W. Europe after World War II but it can take some time before we get there while $ is needed immediately.
The composition of inflows into countries is very different
Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and other war affected countries rely on remittances
Poland, Hungary, Czechia, etc. rely on FDI and EU structural funds
Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and other war affected countries rely on remittances
Poland, Hungary, Czechia, etc. rely on FDI and EU structural funds
January 6, 2026 at 11:20 PM
The composition of inflows into countries is very different
Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and other war affected countries rely on remittances
Poland, Hungary, Czechia, etc. rely on FDI and EU structural funds
Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and other war affected countries rely on remittances
Poland, Hungary, Czechia, etc. rely on FDI and EU structural funds
In recent years, Ukraine relied a lot more on remittances but these are not FDI. Remittances often finance consumption; they do not give the same tech transfer, integration in global value chains, etc.
January 6, 2026 at 11:19 PM
In recent years, Ukraine relied a lot more on remittances but these are not FDI. Remittances often finance consumption; they do not give the same tech transfer, integration in global value chains, etc.
another big difference is the official funds for Ukraine vs. EU members.
Even if we ignore EU structural funds (which are huge), the per-accession EU flows into POL, HUN, etc. were much larger than flows into Ukraine.
EU viewed UKR as not a part of Europe ... but the RUS sphere of influence
Even if we ignore EU structural funds (which are huge), the per-accession EU flows into POL, HUN, etc. were much larger than flows into Ukraine.
EU viewed UKR as not a part of Europe ... but the RUS sphere of influence
January 6, 2026 at 11:17 PM
another big difference is the official funds for Ukraine vs. EU members.
Even if we ignore EU structural funds (which are huge), the per-accession EU flows into POL, HUN, etc. were much larger than flows into Ukraine.
EU viewed UKR as not a part of Europe ... but the RUS sphere of influence
Even if we ignore EU structural funds (which are huge), the per-accession EU flows into POL, HUN, etc. were much larger than flows into Ukraine.
EU viewed UKR as not a part of Europe ... but the RUS sphere of influence
An important source of differences in capital accumulation was the low flow of FDI into Ukraine
January 6, 2026 at 11:11 PM
An important source of differences in capital accumulation was the low flow of FDI into Ukraine
It is stunning how much capital stock in Ukraine decreased after 1991 while new EU members increased it dramatically.
This contributed to the stagnation of income in Ukraine.
This contributed to the stagnation of income in Ukraine.
January 6, 2026 at 11:10 PM
It is stunning how much capital stock in Ukraine decreased after 1991 while new EU members increased it dramatically.
This contributed to the stagnation of income in Ukraine.
This contributed to the stagnation of income in Ukraine.
This approach helps to raise incomes directly and can create a virtuous circle where capital deepening facilitates technological upgrades and repatriation of war refugees, which in turn stimulate more investment.
January 6, 2026 at 10:50 PM
This approach helps to raise incomes directly and can create a virtuous circle where capital deepening facilitates technological upgrades and repatriation of war refugees, which in turn stimulate more investment.
So, so sad...
December 22, 2025 at 11:08 PM
So, so sad...