#kissyourassgoodbye
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doomrick.bsky.social
We're fucked is the basic message here. No there's nothing 8 billion of us can do. At this stage there's nothing any number of us could do.

#kissyourassgoodbye

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This is g l o b a l w a r m i n g. Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees C (18 to 36 degrees F) above average in most of the U.S. on Christmas Day. Then temperatures will plunge to 6 to 16 degrees C below average on New Year’s Day in the Midwest and surrounding areas. These enormous temperature swings with a large bias to warming will only worsen in future years. But the scariest thing in these maps is actually the warming of both polar regions, especially in Antarctica. The red and orange oval in East Antarctica is a new but persistent feature of the last 2 months. It’s part of huge changes occurring in the Southern Ocean that will massively accelerate sea ice and ice shelf melting and trigger glacial calving in Antarctica as well as massively accelerate warming worldwide. We are headed to 2 degrees C (3.6 F) of global average warming by about 2030. Warming will continue to accelerate unless we throw everything we’ve got at reducing our greenhouse gas emissions to zero by then. If we can eliminate fossil fuel burning, stop consuming red meat, and re-wild half of all agricultural lands then we might be able to limit warming to about 2 to 3 degrees C. Otherwise we are on a course to 8 to 14 degrees C or more of warming by next century. At 2 degrees C humanity’s future is bleak. At over 3 degrees C it’s extinction.
December 23, 2025 at 11:10 PM
doomrick.bsky.social
"No one predicted this massive rate of warming of both polar regions."

In other words, the trend of huge underestimation of impacts in the climate system continues. We're toast.

#kissyourassgoodbye

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Temperature anomalies for the date are predicted to be up to about + 28 C (+ 50 F) above average for the date in large parts of the Arctic and in the Indian Ocean side of the Antarctic on Christmas Eve. Massively increasing storminess and warm air intrusion in the polar regions is dramatically accelerating warming and ice melt. As more sea ice melts, albedo drops and lighter meltwater freshens the uppermost ocean layer making it density stratified and stable with much less vertical mixing which causes the surface layer to warm faster and it in turn further warms the atmosphere. No one predicted this massive rate of warming of both polar regions. The warming rate in Antarctica, not just in the air over the ice but particularly in the sea around and under it - because about half of the continent is sea between the islands under the ice sheet - brings massively accelerating and catastrophic sea level rise because of the vulnerability of under sea based glaciers. Temperature anomalies for the date are predicted to be up to about + 28 C (+ 50 F) above average for the date in large parts of the Arctic and in the Indian Ocean side of the Antarctic on Christmas Eve. Massively increasing storminess and warm air intrusion in the polar regions is dramatically accelerating warming and ice melt. As more sea ice melts, albedo drops and lighter meltwater freshens the uppermost ocean layer making it density stratified and stable with much less vertical mixing which causes the surface layer to warm faster and it in turn further warms the atmosphere. No one predicted this massive rate of warming of both polar regions. The warming rate in Antarctica, not just in the air over the ice but particularly in the sea around and under it - because about half of the continent is sea between the islands under the ice sheet - brings massively accelerating and catastrophic sea level rise because of the vulnerability of under sea based glaciers.
December 17, 2025 at 10:51 PM
doomrick.bsky.social
A fitting addition to the end of everything. This should speed our trip over the cliff right along.

#kissyourassgoodbye

www.businessinsider.com/ai-making-wo...
AI is giving workers the illusion of expertise — and quietly making them worse at their jobs, researchers say
Researchers say that overrelying on AI can dull critical thinking, distort expertise, and disrupt how workers learn and advance.
www.businessinsider.com
December 16, 2025 at 12:59 PM
doomrick.bsky.social
HOHOHO Merry #kissyourassgoodbye mas.

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Santa says we’ve all been very naughty so he may not make it out of the North Pole Christmas Eve because temperatures there will be more than + 28 degrees C (+ 50 degrees F) above the average for the date so his sleigh may not even budge in the slush. Image: forecast 2 meter air temperature anomalies for the date on December 24 from GFS model via ClimateReanalyzer.org by Sam Carana
December 14, 2025 at 9:38 PM
doomrick.bsky.social
Congratulations we did it. We're officially fucked. At best stratospheric injections delay our extinction while we drive home the final coffin nails. At worst strat injections are the final nail. Stop breeding for fuck sake.

#kissyourassgoodbye

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The widely used RCP8.5 pathway scenario used in “worst case” global climate modeling underpredicted the area of + 5 degrees C (+ 9 degrees F) to + 12 degrees C (+ 21.6 degrees F) average of temperature anomalies for the date for 90 days running ending November 30 across the Arctic by more than a factor of 3. It also underpredicted the maxima by about 4 degrees C (7.2 degrees F). December - February will likely be worse. Both the north and south polar regions are warming so rapidly now that they will likely be sea ice free in summer by 2027 if not 2026. The drop in albedo will further accelerate g l o b a l w a r m i n g. We have reached the point that we have no choice but to implement stratospheric aerosol injection without delay to prevent catastrophic planetary wide warming.
December 11, 2025 at 11:53 AM
severalmadmen.bsky.social
You know, I was never much of a fan to begin with, but now these guys can definitely KISS my ass

#KissYourAssGoodbye
December 8, 2025 at 3:09 AM
doomrick.bsky.social
Everything is just fine, we don't need ice on the Arctic ocean anyway.

#kissyourassgoodbye

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Text is for all images The Kara Sea in the Arctic Ocean north of Siberia on average begins to freeze over in September in the northern parts and October in the southern parts, with the entire sea usually ice-covered by December. This year it may not freeze at all. Some of the largest stores of frozen methane hydrates in the world lie on the shallow sea floor here. The shallowest parts of the Kara Sea are in its central and southeastern regions, with over 40% of the sea being less than 50 meters (160 feet) deep. Current Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTAs) for the date in the Kara Sea are up to + 3.0 degrees C ( + 5.4 F). September saw anomalies for the date of + 6 to + 15 C (+ 10 to + 27 F). Saltwater in the ocean freezes at about - 2 degrees C (+ 28 degrees F) depending on exact salinity so the current anomalies for the date are about + 5 C (9.4 F) above the freezing point. The Kara Sea floor has also warmed, primarily due to the influx of warmer Atlantic currents and the thawing of subsea permafrost. The sea floor in the western part of the sea has seen the most significant warming, with bottom sediments reaching temperatures up to + 5.0 C (+ 9.4 F) in some areas, which is consistent with the loss of ice-bearing permafrost at those sea floor locations. Methane releases to the atmosphere are increasing and atmospheric values measured here are significantly above the global average. The warming power of methane in the atmosphere is about 80 times that of carbon dioxide over the first 20 years. The South Kara Sea shelf, particularly offshore from the Yamal Peninsula, contains the largest known deposits of seafloor methane in the Kara Sea. This is an area of massive seabed methane escape, primarily due to thawing subsea permafrost, with extensive gas releases observed over an area of at least 7,500 square km in water depths greater than 20 meters, according to Phys.org and AGU Publications. Image: Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies for the date on 23 Nove…
November 24, 2025 at 10:57 PM
doomrick.bsky.social
John is trying really hard to be optimistic here. Unfortunately the only thing we'll possibly do large scale is the stratospheric injection, which will likely just be another death nail.

#kissyourassgoodbye

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Text is for both images The problem here is Blue Ocean Events (BOEs) (less than 1 million square km of sea ice remaining) at both poles are looking increasingly likely in 2026. Arctic sea ice coverage and especially thickness has decreased significantly year to year and Antarctic sea ice is thinning rapidly now with warmer water rising from below. A Double BOE introduces unprecedentedly large non linearities into the trend. And the next El Niño adds what could this time be a quasi permanent step increase of up to about + 0.3 degree C (+ 0.5 F) if it is intense which looks increasingly likely - also in 2026. I believe warming on the order of half a degree C in 2026 alone is a significant possibility. I hope I’m wrong because otherwise the curve will take off much more steeply and we could reach + 3 C (+ 6 F) of warming two decades earlier - in the 2030s. Once we hit + 2.5 C (+ 5 F) there is probably no stopping a rise to + 8 C (+ 14 F) or higher. + 3 C is generally thought by most climate scientists to be human extinction level warming. On the other hand, if renewables switch out fossils as aggressively as possible and most of us go vegetarian, we stop demanding McMansions and multiple intercontinental jet trips each year, etc. AND we find and implement a large scale atmospheric carbon sequestration solution, we could bend the curve slowly down. But we have no time to waste. If we do see on the order of a + 0.5 C rise in 2026, I think we will have no choice but to implement large scale stratospheric aerosol injection to forestall catastrophic warming. That will come with other risks to life on Earth many of which are as yet unknown.
November 24, 2025 at 11:57 AM
doomrick.bsky.social
We really should have gotten our heads out of our asses decades ago.

#kissyourassgoodbye

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For both images The Southern Hemisphere mid latitude Marine Heat Waves are intensifying rapidly as is meltwater from sea ice around Antarctica. These are Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTAs) FOR THE DATE and just 7 days apart so any increase is more than seasonal warming. At this rate of far above seasonal warming we are headed to a first ever recorded Blue Ocean Event (less than 1 million square kilometers of sea ice remaining) around Antarctica by March 2026. An El Niño which could reach record intensity looks increasingly likely by summer 2026. A first ever recorded Arctic Blue Ocean Event looks increasingly likely by October 2026. The rate of of g l o b a l w a r m i n g in 2026 will likely set a record by year’s end. We are in a world of trouble. We must drive down global greenhouse gas emissions to net zero and then well below zero - post haste - or the planet will not be habitable for humans within our childrens’ lifetimes. Image 1. Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTAs) for the date on 21 November 2025, looking down over the South Pole Image 2. Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTAs) for the date on 14 November 2025, looking down over the South Pole Images from earth.nullschool.net
November 23, 2025 at 12:06 AM
doomrick.bsky.social
"We are heading into uncharted waters." Loosely translates to #kissyourassgoodbye

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Text covers all three images. The warm Agulhas Current off the southern end of Africa is one of the most powerful boundary currents in the world. It typically flows southward along the east coast of Africa, turns west off the southern tip of Africa and then mostly doubles back on itself and turns east, only contributing a minor portion of its flow to the more southerly Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) which is 5 x larger than any other current in the world. But that isn’t happening now. Instead almost all of the Agulhas is flowing directly into the ACC. What’s really concerning though is that the Agulhas has been running much warmer than usual - and it is usually quite warm to begin with. This massive additional heat flux into the ACC is occuring as multiple large marine heat waves are rapidly building just north of the ACC, particularly in the SW and SE South Pacific and the SE South Atlantic. Virtually the entire ACC is now significantly anomolously warm for the date. This has dire implications for increasing sea ice melt around Antarctica. We appear to be headed toward the first ever Blue Ocean Event (less than 1 million square km of sea ice remaining) which was expected to first occur in the Arctic and by a wide margin in number of years. But it’s becoming ever more likely that a BOE will occur first in Antarctica - and we could be just 3 months away form it. A BOE is a BFD for global climate because open ocean absorbs vastly more solar radiation than does sea ice. But whats even worse is a BOE in the Antarctic will hasten one in the Arctic. The g l o b a l w a r m i n g impacts of just an Antarctic BOE will be massive and much greater than from one in the Arctic. That’s because the sea ice around Antarctica extends much further equatorward than in the Arctic so the solar radiation is over a larger area and gets more intense sunlight. But the impacts of both will be even worse - they will be catastrophic to habitability of many species including that… An El Niño is expected by summer according to the U.S. Climate Prediction Center. El Niños can raise global average surface air temperatures by several tenths of a degree C or more. The coming one could be intense judging by the unusually warm water in place not only in the western tropical Pacific but also in other massive marine heat waves in the North Pacific centered at about 43 degrees North extending all across the North Pacific and in the SW South Pacific extending from Australia and New Zealand roughly a third of the way across the South Pacific. These MHWs will intensify the El Nino greatly. All of these MHWs are intensifying except for the North Pacific one but it is retaining much of its surface heat despite the approach of winter because the heat extends quite deep and it will warm back up again by late next spring. We are heading into uncharted waters. Image: current Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTAs) for the date including + 6.3 degrees C (+ 11.3 degrees F) in the open ocean well offshore of the southern end of Africa (from earth.nullschool.net). The blue color around Antarctica shows cooler than average for the date water because of cold melt water at the surface from both accelerating melt from Antarctic sea ice and accelerating continental glacial melt.
November 20, 2025 at 11:03 PM
doomrick.bsky.social
We got it wrong. We're a lot more fucked than anyone thought. If someone is telling you we can limit warming to 2.5C by 2100 they're lying. Or even 3C by 2050 they're hoping for something that can't likely happen.

#kissyourassgoodbye

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Text covers both images. "It can’t be stated strongly enough how fast the climate feedback cascade is now ramping up. Surface air temperatures in the Arctic are now predicted to be up to + 20 degrees C (+ 36 degrees F) above the average for the date on November 17. The month of October averaged + 5 to + 10 degrees C (+ 9 to + 18 degrees F) above average for the date across the Arctic. Last January through March (3 months running) were up to + 10 to 15 C (+ 18 to + 27 F above average across large parts of the Arctic. Blue Ocean Events in both polar regions are becoming likely much sooner all the time and could even come in 2026. That will send the Earth into much more rapid, catastrophic warming. Time has run out. Unless the world acts aggressively without delay to rapidly reduce our greenhouse gas emissions, the next El Nino could bring the world near + 2 C and we could see + 3 C within another 15 years. We are on course to irreversible extinction level warming even for humans. We are now past + 1.5 C (+ 2.7 F) which was predicted to take about 15 more years just 3 years ago."
November 10, 2025 at 10:51 PM
doomrick.bsky.social
Pssst, guess what, we're fucked. El nino is coming for dinner. Warming is about to kick our ass over the cliff. 2C by 2030 and 3C by 2040. All of those who ignored reality and banged on about la nina should get your heads out of your asses.

#kissyourassgoodbye

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CanSIPS Multi Model Ensembles predict El Niño (positive (warm) central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly) solidly in place by May. El Niños raise global average surface (2 m) air temperatures by up to + 0.3 C. Even larger and more persistent increases are possible with global warming.
November 1, 2025 at 9:31 AM
doomrick.bsky.social
Climate driven collapse isn't just for developing countries and the global south. It's coming for everyone, everywhere and we're all going down.

#kissyourassgoodbye
October 31, 2025 at 11:40 AM
doomrick.bsky.social
Just a screenshot of my favourite bullet points. We are already on the hothouse earth trajectory(not maybe) and the feedbacks already at play aren't shutting down if we ramp up industrial scale development (solar, wind). More weak, underwhelming, spineless messaging. Again.

#kissyourassgoodbye
Climate change mitigation strategies are available, cost effective, and urgently needed. From forest protection and renewables to plant-rich diets, we can still limit warming if we act boldly and quickly.
October 30, 2025 at 1:00 PM
doomrick.bsky.social
"Change course now", holy fuck.

The UN in 2040 when we're over 3C and everyone is dying rapidly.
"Change course now" to avoid the worst impacts. Blessed fuck, someone needs to grow a pair and lay it out.

Stop breeding, you're children will die horribly, in short order.

#kissyourassgoodbye
October 28, 2025 at 11:55 AM
doomrick.bsky.social
"Climate justice" sounds great but that's about it. As climate collapse continues to to intensify and spread, no amount of man made laws will do a damned thing. We're all going down. There will be lots of tears, pain and screaming. That's reality, deal with it.

#kissyourassgoodbye
umsonst.bsky.social umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · Oct 28
That's the way to go

The empire won't survive what it unleased upon us!

"Civil society and affected groups are pushing for Indonesia to pass a Climate Justice Bill, which would enshrine climate justice as a constitutional right and protect vulnerable communities through coordinate national policy"
Indonesia’s most vulnerable push for nation’s first Climate Justice Bill
JAKARTA — “Going to Dubai was an act of desperation,” says Muninggar, a 48-year-old former fish farmer from northern Java. “There were no jobs left in the village. If I wasn’t forced to, I wouldn’t ha...
news.mongabay.com
October 28, 2025 at 11:48 AM
doomrick.bsky.social
Well this is fantastic, who needs ice? We all do that's who.

Everyone gets fixated on BOE and what not. By the time there's a BOE I'm not sure it's going to matter to us one way or another.

#kissyourassgoodbye

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Been a while since I've talked about Arctic sea ice...but yeah, things are bad. The Central Arctic is experiencing the lowest sea ice extent since at least 1979. Abnormal warmth has been prominent in the far north and may continue through November, slowing sea ice growth further. One major impact of less ice over the Arctic Ocean further into the cold season will be greater coastal erosion from storms. Global sea ice extent (so including the Antarctic, where it is Spring) is also very low for the time of year.
October 22, 2025 at 7:18 PM
doomrick.bsky.social
Once again, ocean stratification has been the game changer. Massive amounts of heat the depths of the seas used to absorb are now fed back to the atmosphere regularly. Building solar farms and batteries won't stop this. We're fucked.

#kissyourassgoodbye

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Text is for both images. This is a forecast for the 3 months running average for this coming January 1 - March 31 of the height anomaly of the 500 mb pressure surface for the northern hemisphere. The average height according to climatology is 5,600 m (18,000 ft) in northern hemisphere winter. It tells you the relative amount of heat in the atmosphere between the surface and that altitude. The anomalies over the NE Pacific are by far the highest I have ever seen for a 3 month average anomaly anywhere in the world. January and March individually show values literally off the charts - in the violet range. These hyper anomalies are due to the predicted enormous wintertime heat release from the record mega marine heat wave in the North Pacific (current sea surface temperature anomalies are shown in last image) as wintertime mid latitude cyclones with high winds suck out much of the accumuated excess heat from the ocean. They won’t suck all of it out by any means because the heat extends to several hundred meters deep. Next year the record Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies will likely be significantly higher and so will the winter 2026-2027 500 mb pressure surface heights. Global warming is accelerating and the Earth Energy Imbalance has more than doubled just in the last few years. The excess heat is being absorbed by the uppermost ocean, not the deep ocean as it was until just a few years ago, due to increasing stratification of the uppermost ocean caused by global warming feedbacks. Average surface air temperatures and average sea surface temperatures are rising faster than at any other time in Earth’s history. We are in big trouble. First two images from tropicaltidbits.com Last image from earth.nullschool.net
October 20, 2025 at 8:59 PM
doomrick.bsky.social
"We are on a trajectory to +3 C sometime in the 2030's".

3°C is where human extinction really gains momentum and is realistically no longer avoidable in this timeframe.

"Human extinction is becoming likely by mid century".

#fucked
#kissyourassgoodbye
#collapse

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Text is for both images. The Global Forecast System model now predicts a + 1.6 C Northern Hemisphere average 2 m height air temperature anomaly in 7 days, compared to a 1981-2010 baseline. The global average anomaly compared to pre-industrial times is forecast to be + 1.8 C. These values show a massive increase of about + 0.3 to + 0.4 C just since October 1. I suspect this is due to heat transfer to the atmosphere from the record North Pacific marine heat wave. This global increase is associated with rising temperature anomalies in both polar regions and increasing continental heat waves virtually worldwide. Marine heat waves have amplified considerably in 2025 globally despite ENSO neutral conditions shifting to a weak La Niña. There is now little chance of returning below the + 1.5 C (above pre-industrial) threshold that the IPCC consistently warned about. We will likely see ENSO neutral and a trend towards El Niño later in 2026 which will assuredly raise global temperatures further. + 2.0 C appears likely by 2030 or sooner if we get a strong El Niño which is likely. Even with no El Niño, marine heat waves are likely to continue amplifying which is now definitively contributing to atmospheric warming. The Earth Energy Imbalance is increasing and that extra heat is being absorbed increasingly by the far upper ocean, not the deep ocean as it was until just a few years ago, due to increasing upper ocean stratification associated with increasing polar ice melt and cloud cover reduction feedbacks. We are on a trajectory to + 3 C sometime in the 2030s. A climate feedback cascade is already beginning and if we do not massively cut greenhouse gas emissions post haste, human extinction is becoming likely by mid century.
October 17, 2025 at 9:58 PM
doomrick.bsky.social
Right on schedule.

#kissyourassgoodbye
October 14, 2025 at 10:30 PM
doomrick.bsky.social
Meanwhile on the east coast. The silent killer of #collapse. I'm finally exceptional.

#kissyourassgoodbye
October 14, 2025 at 12:04 PM
doomrick.bsky.social
Last winter for three months running, the temp anomaly in the Arctic was 10-15°c above normal, a record. It's currently forecast to be 15-20°C. If this happens there'll be no denying we've lost the Arctic. I believe we already have.

#kissyourassgoodbye
climatecasino.net Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · Oct 13
Breaking News!
Code Yikes!

This last August saw a record low for average August Arctic sea-ice thickness, the first time below 1 meter, with data going back to 1979.

Still waiting for September data. Will we see a new all-time record low? The Climate 8-ball is drunk again.
October 13, 2025 at 9:49 PM
doomrick.bsky.social
While everyone is busy squabbling over king trump this is happening. Everything besides this is trivial. We are watching the sixth mass extinctions' end game. It's accelerating rapidly and there's not a damned thing anyone can do to stop it.

#kissyourassgoodbye

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This text is for both images. This image is a stunning and staggering snapshot of rapidly accelerating global warming which is becoming an order of magnitude (10 times) worse in the polar regions. Not only is much of the Arctic’s (the Arctic is from 66.5 to 90 degrees north latitude) surface air temperature forecast to be + 15 C to + 20 degrees C (+ 27 to + 36 degrees F) above the average for the date, much of the Antarctic (66.5 to 90 degrees south latitude) will approach that. Image is a forecast map for 7 days from now from the U.S. Global Forecast System model from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, part of the National Weather Service. In the Arctic the magnitude of warming strongly increases poleward. The Arctic Ocean is now mostly ice free. In the Antarctic the temperature anomaly maxima is at about 75 degrees south latitude because the South Pole (90 degrees south) is at high elevation in the middle of the Antarctic ice sheet. Last winter much of the Arctic was + 10 to + 15 degrees C (+ 18 to + 27 degrees F) above the average for the date for 3 months running from January 1 to March 31. I was hoping that record wouldn’t be eclipsed so soon. It appears it will be shattered. We are entering the catastrophic phase of global warming.
October 10, 2025 at 9:36 PM
doomrick.bsky.social
1/2 Basically John is saying 2040 will be it. Carbon capture is nonesense, a scheme cooked up by industry. We also know rapid decline in emissions equals termination shock, accelerating warming. In any case, we'll keep burning and destroying.

#kissyourassgoodbye

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Why we’re in big trouble - in two simple graphs. It’s much worse though because the vast majority of the imbalance is increasingly absorbed by the uppermost few hundred meters of the increasingly stratified uppermost ocean. The Earth Energy Imbalance has increased by 338% since 2004. Until the last few years most of it was being absorbed by the deep ocean. Not any more. This is why global warming is accelerating. September alone saw a + 0.2 degrees C (+ 0.4 degrees F) rise in global average surface air temperature. We are now at 1.4 to 1.5 degrees C (2.6 F) of warming compared to pre- industrial times. If we don’t take drastic action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions post haste and begin new ways of sequestering much of it already in the atmosphere we will see + 2 degrees C (+ 4 degrees F) within about 5 years and + 3 degrees C (+ 6 degrees F) within about 15 years. At + 3 degrees C humans rapidly go extinct.
October 8, 2025 at 11:35 AM
doomrick.bsky.social
I still have healthy tomato plants, outside in Nova Scotia in October. This should not happen, ever. It's great until you remember this is a gentle reminder we have one foot hanging off the cliff.

#kissyourassgoodbye
October 6, 2025 at 1:44 AM