#seasonal-to-decadal
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zacklabe.com
The temperature is not going down like a rock.

Graphic from zacklabe.com/climate-chan...
This graphic shows four line graph time series and each are monthly from January 1984 through November 2025. The first graph is a 12-month running mean of global mean surface temperature anomalies. Anomalies are computed relative to a 1991-2020 baseline using ERA5 data. The second graph is monthly carbon dioxide abundance. The CO2 graph is the Keeling Curve. Current levels are 426 ppm. The third graph is monthly global methane abundance. Current levels are 1931 ppb. The fourth graph is monthly global nitrous oxide abundance. Current levels are 339 ppb. The three greenhouse gases show seasonal cycles and long-term increasing trends using data from NOAA ESRL. The global mean surface temperature anomaly record also exhibits decadal variability and a long-term increasing trend. All graphs are rising and shown in four different colors, including white, yellow, orange, and pink.
December 10, 2025 at 1:26 PM
zacklabe.com
Greenhouse gas data is finally rolling in again, and my dashboard is back up-to-date. Unfortunately, the story hasn’t changed... 📈

More climate change indicator graphics at zacklabe.com/climate-chan...
This graphic shows four line graph time series and each are monthly from January 1984 through October 2025. The first graph is a 12-month running mean of global mean surface temperature anomalies. Anomalies are computed relative to a 1991-2020 baseline using ERA5 data. The second graph is monthly carbon dioxide abundance. The CO2 graph is the Keeling Curve. Current levels are 425 ppm. The third graph is monthly global methane abundance. Current levels are 1928 ppb. The fourth graph is monthly global nitrous oxide abundance. Current levels are 339 ppb. The three greenhouse gases show seasonal cycles and long-term increasing trends using data from NOAA ESRL. The global mean surface temperature anomaly record also exhibits decadal variability and a long-term increasing trend. All graphs are rising and shown in four different colors, including white, yellow, orange, and pink.
November 16, 2025 at 2:10 AM
zacklabe.com
My climate change dashboard is updated for this month...

Higher resolution graphic available at zacklabe.com/climate-chan... 🧪
This graphic shows four line graph time series and each are monthly from January 1984 through July 2025. The first graph is a 12-month running mean of global mean surface temperature anomalies. Anomalies are computed relative to a 1991-2020 baseline using ERA5 data. The second graph is monthly carbon dioxide abundance. The CO2 graph is the Keeling Curve. Current levels are 428 ppm. The third graph is monthly global methane abundance. Current levels are 1935 ppb. The fourth graph is monthly global nitrous oxide abundance. Current levels are 339 ppb. The three greenhouse gases show seasonal cycles and long-term increasing trends using data from NOAA ESRL. The global mean surface temperature anomaly record also exhibits decadal variability and a long-term increasing trend. All graphs are rising and shown in four different colors, including white, yellow, orange, and pink.
August 28, 2025 at 12:22 PM
stevebowen.bsky.social
"We haven't had a pre-June 1 named storm in the Atlantic. The season is already a bust!"

No.

There is little correlation with the first named storm date in the Satellite Era (1966-) to the number of seasonal hurricanes.

FYI: The decadal average (2015-2024) for first Atlantic hurricane? August 3
May 29, 2025 at 4:22 PM
zacklabe.com
Arctic sea ice grows and shrinks during the year (seasonal cycle). It reaches its annual minimum extent at the end of every summer (early-mid September).

Currently, 2023's sea ice extent is already below the minimums from the 1980, 1990, and 2000 decadal averages [JAXA data] 🧪⚒️
Line graph time series showing 2023's daily Arctic sea ice extent in orange compared to decadal averages from the 1980s to the 2010s. The line showing the 2000s average is highlighted in blue to compare its annual minimum extent. There is a long-term decreasing trend in ice extent for every day of the year.
August 19, 2023 at 8:35 PM
zacklabe.com
Update - my monthly climate change dashboard...

Higher resolution graphic available at zacklabe.com/climate-chan...
This graphic shows four line graph time series and each are monthly from January 1984 through 2025. The first graph is a 12-month running mean of global mean surface temperature anomalies. Anomalies are computed relative to a 1991-2020 baseline using ERA5 data. The second graph is monthly carbon dioxide abundance. The CO2 graph is the Keeling Curve. Current levels are 427 ppm. The third graph is monthly global methane abundance. Current levels are 1943 ppb. The fourth graph is monthly global nitrous oxide abundance. Current levels are 338 ppb. The three greenhouse gases show seasonal cycles and long-term increasing trends using data from NOAA ESRL. The global mean surface temperature anomaly record also exhibits decadal variability and a long-term increasing trend. All graphs are rising and shown in four different colors, including white, yellow, orange, and pink.
March 9, 2025 at 1:40 PM
jeromeollier.bsky.social
Drivers of seasonal to decadal mixed layer carbon cycle variability in subantarctic water in the Munida Time Series - @FrontMarineSci
https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/marine-science/articles/10.3389/fmars.2024.1309560/full
Frontiers | Drivers of seasonal to decadal mixed layer ca...
Using ancillary datasets and interpolation schemes, 20+ y...
www.frontiersin.org
January 11, 2025 at 3:53 PM
zacklabe.com
#Arctic sea ice extent has already dropped well below what used to be the average annual minimum in the 1990s (and 1980s). Again, the "melt season" typically ends in September.

+ Additional graphs: zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-i...
+ Small differences will exist between different datasets
Orange line graph time series of 2024's daily Arctic sea ice extent compared to decadal averages from the 1980s to the 2010s, which are shown with different colored lines. 2024 is now below the minimum extent in the 1990s by more than 34 days earlier. A seasonal cycle is shown on the graph. There is a long-term decreasing trend evident in every day of the year on this graphic.
August 6, 2024 at 12:18 PM
zacklabe.com
< ThisIsFine.gif >

Data updated through last month. Graphic available at zacklabe.com/climate-chan...
This graphic shows four line graph time series and each are monthly from January 1984 through November 2023. The first graph is a 12-month running mean of global mean surface temperature anomalies. Anomalies are computed relative to a 1991-2020 baseline using ERA5 data. The second graph is monthly carbon dioxide abundance. The CO2 graph is the Keeling Curve. Current levels are 420 ppm. The third graph is monthly global methane abundance. Current levels are 1919 ppb. The fourth graph is monthly global nitrous oxide abundance. Current levels are 337 ppb. The three greenhouse gases show seasonal cycles and long-term increasing trends using data from NOAA ESRL. The global mean surface temperature anomaly record also exhibits decadal variability and a long-term increasing trend. All graphs are rising and shown in four different colors, including white, yellow, orange, and pink.
December 17, 2023 at 2:29 AM
aspect-project.bsky.social
📢 SAVE THE DATE: ASPECT's 3rd User Forum

Join us in exploring the latest science of seasonal to decadal predictions, and their real-world applications for climate adaptation.

📅 25-27 March
🕑 14:00-15:30 CET
✍️ Register: buff.ly/4i3b8aN

Agenda & details coming soon!
February 18, 2025 at 8:32 AM
jeromeollier.bsky.social
Actus Mer/Sea News: Via @EuroGeosciences - Interactions between the stratospheric polar vortex and Atlantic circulation on seasonal to multi-decadal timescales - @EGU_ACP http://dlvr.it/SNrnh9
January 25, 2025 at 10:18 AM
zacklabe.com
Oh, just posting this for no particular reason...

Latest monthly climate change updates:
+ Global temperature: 📈
+ Carbon dioxide (CO₂; new record high): 📈
+ Methane (CH₄): 📈
+ Nitrous oxide (N₂O; new record high) : 📈

Graphic available at https://zacklabe.com/climate-change-indicators/
This graphic shows four line graph time series and each are monthly from January 1984 through May 2023. The first graph is a 12-month running mean of global mean surface temperature anomalies. Anomalies are computed relative to a 1991-2020 baseline using ERA5 data. The second graph is monthly carbon dioxide abundance. The CO2 graph is the Keeling Curve. Current levels are 424 ppm. The third graph is monthly global methane abundance. Current levels are 1920 ppb. The fourth graph is monthly global nitrous oxide abundance. Current levels are 337 ppb. The three greenhouse gases show seasonal cycles and long-term increasing trends using data from NOAA ESRL. The global mean surface temperature anomaly record also exhibits decadal variability and a long-term increasing trend. All graphs are rising and shown in four different colors, including white, yellow, orange, and pink.
June 7, 2023 at 6:43 PM
giorgiadc.bsky.social
Looking for research on weather extremes in the Mediterranean? Check out our PREVENT-Improved Predictability Of Extremes Over The Mediterranean From Seasonal To Decadal Timescales HORIZON project 🌦️☀️
preventmed-climate.eu
@pik-potsdam.bsky.social is leading WP5-Environmental and socioeconomic impacts
Prevent Climate
preventmed-climate.eu
June 19, 2025 at 12:15 PM
csdms.bsky.social
Job Opportunity: Seasonal to Decadal Prediction and Water Resources at Hochschule Weihenstephan-Triesdorf University of Applied Sciences (HSWT), Germany. Apply by 17 January. See also: csdms.colorado.edu/wiki/Jobs
December 4, 2024 at 9:16 PM
aspect-project.bsky.social
🚨 New paper alert!

We are excited to share new research by ASPECT scientists, which proposes a new method to generate seamless climate information across seasonal to decadal timescales.

👉📖 Read the full paper by Solaraju-Murali et al.: buff.ly/ooaAwKg
October 13, 2025 at 2:16 PM
zacklabe.com
Not great!!

Latest update at zacklabe.com/climate-chan... #ClimateChange
This graphic shows four line graph time series and each are monthly from January 1984 through 2024. The first graph is a 12-month running mean of global mean surface temperature anomalies. Anomalies are computed relative to a 1991-2020 baseline using ERA5 data. The second graph is monthly carbon dioxide abundance. The CO2 graph is the Keeling Curve. Current levels are 425 ppm. The third graph is monthly global methane abundance. Current levels are 1932 ppb. The fourth graph is monthly global nitrous oxide abundance. Current levels are 337 ppb. The three greenhouse gases show seasonal cycles and long-term increasing trends using data from NOAA ESRL. The global mean surface temperature anomaly record also exhibits decadal variability and a long-term increasing trend. All graphs are rising and shown in four different colors, including white, yellow, orange, and pink.
April 27, 2024 at 2:45 AM
zacklabe.com
I do not have better news.

Last monthly climate indicators update: zacklabe.com/climate-chan... 🧪⚒️
This graphic shows four line graph time series and each are monthly from January 1984 through September 2023. The first graph is a 12-month running mean of global mean surface temperature anomalies. Anomalies are computed relative to a 1991-2020 baseline using ERA5 data. The second graph is monthly carbon dioxide abundance. The CO2 graph is the Keeling Curve. Current levels are 419 ppm. The third graph is monthly global methane abundance. Current levels are 1917 ppb. The fourth graph is monthly global nitrous oxide abundance. Current levels are 337 ppb. The three greenhouse gases show seasonal cycles and long-term increasing trends using data from NOAA ESRL. The global mean surface temperature anomaly record also exhibits decadal variability and a long-term increasing trend. All graphs are rising and shown in four different colors, including white, yellow, orange, and pink.
October 15, 2023 at 1:13 AM
cslg-bot.bsky.social
assimilation, probabilistic weather forecast and seasonal prediction, yields stable millennial simulations, and reproduces climate variability from daily to decadal time scales. [5/5 of https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.03038v1]
March 6, 2025 at 6:16 AM
umsonst.bsky.social
Now the AGU24 presentation is out. Crucial study to understand the recent temp. jump as local seasonal processes are important

"Global and Regional Drivers for Exceptional Climate Extremes in 2023-2024: Beyond the New Normal"; assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-545...

#climate #uöäü12023
A vital question is whether the exceptional events of 2023-24 have implications beyond 2024 - for expected climate change in the years and decades ahead. A basic but crucial point is that the positive trend in EEI since 2000 means that global warming (measured by heat uptake by the Earth’s climate system) is accelerating. What is not yet clear is to what extent this acceleration in heat uptake will influence trends in surface temperature over the years and the decade to come. On decadal timescales we expect a positive correlation between285 changes in EEI and changes in surface temperature; however, there is variability in this relationship associated with vertical redistribution of heat within the ocean61, which can temporarily enhance or offset the EEI influence. Nevertheless, in the presence of a positive trend in EEI, natural fluctuations that perturb the global energy budget - such as those associated with ENSO cycles - will sooner or later have larger and sometimes record- breaking impacts, including on surface temperatures, because the associated EEI anomalies will be larger than they were in the past. The 2023-24 period is a clear example of this, and similar events can be expected in future.
December 22, 2024 at 12:20 AM
zacklabe.com
And here is my climate visualization contribution to COP28 🧪⚒️

The graph is updated through October 2023. See more at zacklabe.com/climate-chan...
This graphic shows four line graph time series and each are monthly from January 1984 through October 2023. The first graph is a 12-month running mean of global mean surface temperature anomalies. Anomalies are computed relative to a 1991-2020 baseline using ERA5 data. The second graph is monthly carbon dioxide abundance. The CO2 graph is the Keeling Curve. Current levels are 419 ppm. The third graph is monthly global methane abundance. Current levels are 1915 ppb. The fourth graph is monthly global nitrous oxide abundance. Current levels are 337 ppb. The three greenhouse gases show seasonal cycles and long-term increasing trends using data from NOAA ESRL. The global mean surface temperature anomaly record also exhibits decadal variability and a long-term increasing trend. All graphs are rising and shown in four different colors, including white, yellow, orange, and pink.
November 30, 2023 at 12:42 PM
martinmacek.bsky.social
Greening in the arid Western #Himalaya isn't just about warming 🌡️. Using two decades of 🛰️ #Landsat NDVI data, we found precipitation 🌧️🌨️ and CO2 fertilization, not temperature, drives spectral greening across elevations in #Ladakh.
Ladakh - our study area on elevation-dependent greening in the cold arid region https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adc9c7 Seasonal anomalies in precipitation and snow-cover duration explain more variability in NDVI than temperature anomalies. Directional multi-decadal greening can be attributed to fertilising effects of rising CO2 concentrations, increasing photosynthesis efficiency.
May 13, 2025 at 12:33 PM
johanviljoen.bsky.social
Going to #OSM24 in New Orleans? I'll be presenting a poster on the difference between Surface and Subsurface Phytoplankton seasonal and decadal trends. Happening on Tuesday, 20 Feb in the OB24E Time Series Observations of Biogeochemistry.
🦑🧪🌊#ExeterMarine
February 10, 2024 at 3:25 PM
zacklabe.com
My end of the month reminder showing some of the latest climate change indicators...

Graphic from zacklabe.com/climate-chan...
This graphic shows four line graph time series and each are monthly from January 1984 through June 2024. The first graph is a 12-month running mean of global mean surface temperature anomalies. Anomalies are computed relative to a 1991-2020 baseline using ERA5 data. The second graph is monthly carbon dioxide abundance. The CO2 graph is the Keeling Curve. Current levels are 427 ppm. The third graph is monthly global methane abundance. Current levels are 1931 ppb. The fourth graph is monthly global nitrous oxide abundance. Current levels are 338 ppb. The three greenhouse gases show seasonal cycles and long-term increasing trends using data from NOAA ESRL. The global mean surface temperature anomaly record also exhibits decadal variability and a long-term increasing trend. All graphs are rising and shown in four different colors, including white, yellow, orange, and pink.
July 31, 2024 at 11:39 AM
kellyhereid.bsky.social
Nice Fig 1 w hindcast skill MT @ed_hawkins 2014 Met Office experimental decadal forecast released at 10am tomorrow <a href="http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/decadal-fc" class="hover:underline text-blue-600 dark:text-sky-400 no-card-link" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-link="bsky">http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/decadal-fc
Long-range predictions
Monthly to decadal predictions
www.metoffice.gov.uk
November 4, 2024 at 7:55 AM