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Registration for experts interested in serving as Expert Reviewers and providing scientific comments on the First Order Draft of the Special Report on Climate Change and Cities is now open!
Registration closes 30 Nov 2025.
Read more 🔗 www.ipcc.ch/2025/09/17/p...
It would be interesting to calculate the partitioning of cooling by upwelling compared to energy converted to storm energy.
Some more literature. Risk is increased near shore which is not good. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
A Global Increase in Nearshore Tropical Cyclone Intensification
Tropical cyclone (TC) intensification rates have increased in near coastal regions over the 42-year period 1979-2020 Increases in relative humidity along with decreases in vertical wind shear are...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Thanks. And btw, in our cat 6 paper, we do not see substantial risk in the open Atlantic.
Does eyewall replacement cause the expansion in size? Or is it some other physical mechanism like available energy?
Jeff, what is the mechanism causing this expansion in physical size?
I am an executive editor for a journal. I would ask now. It may be that they are having trouble finding a suitable AE. Or it may have slipped between the cracks. In any event, the editor should let you know.
And to consider the change in risk of near shore intense storms agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
You may not want to assume that the risk of landfall remains constant at 11% www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
Increased U.S. coastal hurricane risk under climate change
Future ocean warming in eastern tropical Pacific will enhance US hurricane risk through changes in steering flow and wind shear.
www.science.org
I presume these values are from the NOAA look up table. Recent work finds that they underestimate the heat index for very high values. iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
Thank you for posting. I have hundreds of hours into these (2,3,4,& 5) . At taxpayer expense, I might add.
If you are having trouble finding National Climate Assessment reports, they are here.
www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar...
www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar...
RealClimate: National Climate Assessment links
RealClimate: For some reason, it has become hard to locate the various National Climate Assessments (NCAs) that have been produced by the USGCRP over the decades (and it's pretty hard to find the USGR...
www.realclimate.org
Probably not above the upper bound. But generally more than 7 standard deviations is "impossible" www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Data-driven upper bounds and event attribution for unprecedented heatwaves
The last decade has seen numerous record-shattering heatwaves in all corners of the globe. In the aftermath of these devastating events, there is inte…
www.sciencedirect.com
"Extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, droughts and heatwaves, are becoming more frequent and intense..." Present tense; attribution is recognized with this statement.
Reposted by: Michael Wehner, Benjamin I. Cook
Delighted to announce that Ben Santer is now an Honorary Professor @ueaenv.bsky.social & the Climatic Research Unit (CRU).
Ben is returning to his "academic home": he did his PhD in CRU before his stellar career developing "fingerprint" methods to identify human & natural effects on climate.
Ben is returning to his "academic home": he did his PhD in CRU before his stellar career developing "fingerprint" methods to identify human & natural effects on climate.
There are very few of us doing rigorous event attribution in the US. Extreme weather events are increasing but attribution scientists numbers are decreasing.😞
by Friederike Otto — Reposted by: Michael Wehner, Du Toit
What caused deadly landslides in Colombia? Finding out, should be easier. Tropical climates are complex, but if data are held by companies & organisations hiding them behind walls of bureaucracy it becomes impossible. @wwattribution.bsky.social study: www.worldweatherattribution.org/growing-expo...
And to further bridge the stats/climate gap, I started this journal to aid in cross field communication. www.advances-statistical-climatology-meteorology-oceanography.net
ASCMO - Home
www.advances-statistical-climatology-meteorology-oceanography.net
by Michael Wehner — Reposted by: Gavin A. Schmidt
Having engaged with numerous professional statisticians, I find this a gross over generalization. As with any cross-discipline, success requires two way communication. And there is a language barrier. But recent workshops are bridging this gap. See my opinion piece: doi.org/10.1029/2019...
Climate Science Needs Professional Statisticians - Eos
Climate science needs its own specialized “climostatisticians” as integral members of multidisciplinary research teams.
doi.org
When we wrote the Cat 6 hurricane article, we recognized that a single number cannot convey local danger that individuals might face & instead recommended that NHC products, especially maps, are superior. NHC warnings have also become more direct. i.e. "certain death". Such messages might help here
The DOE BER takes a big hit. Scroll to page 102: www.energy.gov/sites/defaul...
www.energy.gov
Reposted by: Michael Wehner
☀️Heatwaves☀️, like the one we're having this week, will be made even more dangerous by climate change.
Dr @eunicelo.bsky.social is on a mission to map how heat can affect people living in cities like Bristol.
#heatwave @bristoluni.bsky.social @ebibristol.bsky.social
Dr @eunicelo.bsky.social is on a mission to map how heat can affect people living in cities like Bristol.
#heatwave @bristoluni.bsky.social @ebibristol.bsky.social
Apologize that i am such a curmudgeon. Comes with age...
To clarify.Impacts are often binary, then we can make the binary causal statement. But meteorology is not so binary. (And some impacts are not binary, like heatwave deaths) and it is important to note that impact attribution is in early stages. 2 important papers in review now
The dam breach is an extreme weather impact & I would agree. But I maintain my hot button for the ‘weather’ event. An important but subtle distinction
The title hits my hot button on causality. It causes them to be worse but doesn’t cause them per se. Complex events have complex causal factors
What bothered me is that the anchor asked her question in the future tense. It should be in the present tense.