Bence Németh | Lightnews

Texas National Security Review @tnsr.org · 1d

It doesn't take a massive war to break an alliance system—just a crisis to shatter the illusion of power.

@bencenemeth.bsky.social's article uses the 1956 Suez analogue to examine how a setback in the Indo-Pacific could force a brutal recalibration in allied capitals. #GrandStrategy #NatSec

"What the example of Suez reveals is that it is not the scale of the military engagement itself that is critical, but the way in which a crisis reshapes allied perceptions of American reliability, capacity, and strategic will." Quote from "How a US “Suez Moment” Could Hollow the US Alliance System" by Bence Nemeth

Texas National Security Review @tnsr.org · 3d

In our latest article, Bence Nemeth (@bencenemeth.bsky.social) explores whether the US alliance system would hollow out or adapt in the face of a major setback. tnsr.org/2025/12/how-...

How a US "Suez Moment" Could Hollow the US Alliance System - Texas National Security Review

This article contends that while the United States still fields potent military capabilities, the narrowing military balance with China means that a future Indo-Pacific clash in which Beijing gains a…

tnsr.org

Texas National Security Review @tnsr.org · 3d

Is the US approaching a “Suez moment” in the Indo-Pacific? The military balance with China is narrowing, and a public exposure of capability shortfalls could shatter alliance confidence.

War Studies @warstudieskcl.bsky.social · Aug 27

Dr @bencenemeth.bsky.social highlights a marked shift in perceptions of the Chinese military. Once seen as large but outdated, it is now “either reached or is nearing military parity” with the US in key areas, marking a “dramatic shift.”

🔗Read more: bit.ly/4n6i61p

#ChinaMilitary #IndoPacific

Defence Studies @dsdkings.bsky.social · Jun 5

How can Europe balance urgent defence needs with complex cooperation?

@bencenemeth.bsky.social argues that time, not funding, is the key constraint, suggesting frontline states to boost national capabilities first and then integrate them into NATO and the EU.

Explore his insights:
bit.ly/45CM47t

War Studies @warstudieskcl.bsky.social · May 28

Congratulations to Dr @bencenemeth.bsky.social

@NATO has featured his co-authored research paper in its #StrategicForesight manual. A fantastic example of how academic research from @KingsCollegeLon is shaping real-world #DefencePolicy.

Full story 👉 bit.ly/43yxY4m

#OurDividedPlanet

How a King's academic's research is changing NATO's approach to planning for the future

NATO has featured a paper co-authored by Dr Bence Nemeth, Senior Lecturer in the Defence Studies Department, as the key case study in a new handbook advising all its institutions and member states on ...

bit.ly

Defence Studies @dsdkings.bsky.social · May 28

Congratulations to Dr @bencenemeth.bsky.social

@NATO has featured his co-authored research paper in its #StrategicForesight manual. A fantastic example of how academic research from @KingsCollegeLon is shaping real-world #DefencePolicy.

Full story 👉 bit.ly/43yxY4m

#OurDividedPlanet

How a King's academic's research is changing NATO's approach to planning for the future

NATO has featured a paper co-authored by Dr Bence Nemeth, Senior Lecturer in the Defence Studies Department, as the key case study in a new handbook advising all its institutions and member states on ...

bit.ly

King's College London @kingscollegelondon.bsky.social · May 28

A new NATO handbook advising how to carry out strategic foresight activities has featured Dr @bencenemeth.bsky.social's research as a key case study.

Read more about how Dr Nemeth's work is helping to train alliance members for future planning 👇

#OurDividedPlanet

www.kcl.ac.uk/news/how-a-k...

How a King's academic's research is changing NATO's approach to planning for the future

NATO has featured a paper co-authored by Dr Bence Nemeth, Senior Lecturer in the Defence Studies Department, as the key case study in a new handbook advising all its institutions and member states on ...

www.kcl.ac.uk

Defence Studies @dsdkings.bsky.social · Apr 24

With key envoys pull out, can the US still lead peace efforts if it’s no longer seen as neutral?

"This is not just about diplomacy fatigue. It also signals a hard pivot: The US is not positioning itself as a neutral mediator." - Dr @bencenemeth.bsky.social

Read:
bit.ly/3Gqun0E

Trump slams Zelenskyy for rejecting Ukraine-Russia negotiations, saying a deal was 'very close'

High-level talks in London aimed at bringing a pause to fighting in Ukraine disintegrated after Secretary of State Marco Rubio and special envoy Steve Witkoff pulled out.

bit.ly

War Studies @warstudieskcl.bsky.social · Apr 24

US peace talks hit setbacks after Zelenskyy refused to recognise Russia’s control over Crimea. Dr @bencenemeth.bsky.social describes it a “significant downgrading” of negotiations.

“The US is not positioning itself as a neutral mediator,” adds Dr Németh.

Read more:
bit.ly/3Gqun0E

Trump slams Zelenskyy for rejecting Ukraine-Russia negotiations, saying a deal was 'very close'

High-level talks in London aimed at bringing a pause to fighting in Ukraine disintegrated after Secretary of State Marco Rubio and special envoy Steve Witkoff pulled out.

bit.ly

The Conversation UK @uk.theconversation.com · Apr 11

Putting a European in place as the leader of Nato forces might seem like an easy option, but there are several major issues.

Why it matters for European security if an American no longer commands Nato troops – by a former Trident sub commander

Putting a European in place as the leader of Nato forces might seem like an easy option, but there are several major issues.

tcnv.link

Defence Studies @dsdkings.bsky.social · Apr 9

What does the US-South Korea shipbuilding deal mean for naval power?

"The US Navy will benefit from increased availability of ships...it could accelerate the growth of its fleet. This can help Washington maintain its global maritime dominance." - Dr @bencenemeth.bsky.social

Read:
bit.ly/42D9FTI

US and South Korean warship makers sign deal that could help narrow naval race with China | CNN Business

America’s largest military shipbuilder has signed a deal with a South Korean company that experts say could be a big step in helping the US Navy build new warships to keep pace with rival China in fle...

bit.ly

Matti Pesu @pesumatti.bsky.social · Apr 1

"Instead of building forces for a range of potential scenarios across multiple theaters, allies are being asked to focus primarily on fulfilling roles earmarked to them under the operational plans."

www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res...

Why NATO’s Defence Planning Process will transform the Alliance for decades to come

The NATO Defence Planning Process (NDPP) is little known outside defense ministries. But today this process is driving the most consequential shift in European and Canadian defense in the last two gen...

www.atlanticcouncil.org

Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · Mar 19

Interested what @cerianbond.bsky.social, @alanderminna.bsky.social, @sophiabesch.bsky.social @maxbergmann.bsky.social make of this.

Trump considers giving up NATO command.

www.nbcnews.com/politics/nat...

Trump admin considers giving up NATO command that has been American since Eisenhower

The move is being discussed as part of a possible restructuring of combatant commands that would help the Defense Department cut costs.

www.nbcnews.com

Gesine Weber @gesineweber.bsky.social · Mar 7

New Geopolitical Europe Pulse is out!

Europe alone?

Compilation of articles, feat. @maxbergmann.bsky.social, @lscazzieri.bsky.social, @bencenemeth.bsky.social, and @rafaelloss.bsky.social:

geopoliticaleurope.substack.com/p/geopolitic...

Geopolitical Europe Pulse: Europe alone?

7 March 2025

geopoliticaleurope.substack.com

Bence Nemeth @bencenemeth.bsky.social · Mar 4

"Without the United States as a steadfast ally, Europe faces a turbulent security environment where dangers can originate not only from Russia but also from the missteps of Western policies themselves." Just got quoted by The Sun: www.thesun.co.uk/news/3366763...

Battle tanks, missiles & howitzers - what weapons has Trump pulled plug on

UKRAINE’S war chest has taken a massive hit after Donald Trump paused US military aid — halting the supply of billions of dollars’ worth of battle tanks, long-range missiles, and air defense …

www.thesun.co.uk

King's College London @kingscollegelondon.bsky.social · Mar 4

Without the USA as a steadfast ally, European nations are rethinking their security strategies, which bencenemeth.bsky.social of @dsdkings.bsky.social says offers opportunities as well as challenges.
▶️ www.kcl.ac.uk/a-new-geopol...
Also see his previous article on defending NATO without the US 🔽

Quote from Dr Bence Nemeth on the opportunities and challenges for Europe from the change in US policy since Trump took office for a second term.

Bence Nemeth @bencenemeth.bsky.social · Mar 4

In my RAND paper on defending NATO Eastern Flank without the US, I argued that we need 3 EUR DIV (45k troops) in the Baltics to generate credible deterrence. This highlights its difficulties, let alone doing it with a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine simultaneously.
kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/en/pu...

Defending NATO without the Americans

kclpure.kcl.ac.uk

Bence Nemeth @bencenemeth.bsky.social · Mar 4

No, I’m afraid we cannot do any of that effectively (let alone both at the same time). These are the thoughts I shared last year in a RAND paper on defending the Eastern Flank without American support:
kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/en/pu...

Bence Nemeth @bencenemeth.bsky.social · Mar 1

Yes, but the current events change the relevance of the China challenge. While China is an industrial challenge, the rift with the US might pose such a national security and economic challenges that could undermine the fundamentals of the German way of life.

Bence Nemeth @bencenemeth.bsky.social · Feb 25

“Every U.S. president has pressured Europeans on defense since Truman. The policy didn’t change, the style has changed.”
Got quoted in @wsj.com on how Trump’s approach is shaking up NATO spending.
www.wsj.com/world/europe...

@dsdkings.bsky.social

Trump, Not Putin, Forces Europe to Get Serious About Defense

European nations are rushing to spend more as America threatens to withdraw its longstanding protection.

www.wsj.com

Andy Lim @andysaulim.com · Jan 23

North Korean provocations since 1953, by U.S. administrations.

Source: beyondparallel.csis.org/database-nor... (from @korea.csis.org)

RAND Europe @randeurope.org · Jan 2

🌍🛡️ The Future of Defence 🛡️🌍

Nine essays on critical strategic topics, including:
-The evolving roles of the UK and NATO in global defence.
- The strategic implications of China's rising influence.
- Ongoing tensions with Russia, North Korea, and Iran.

rand.org/pubs/perspec...

#UKDefence #RAND

Strategic Commentaries

These nine essays discuss strategic issues concerning the UK, NATO, China, Russia, North Korea and Iran, and are intended to stimulate reflection, further thinking and discussion within the UK Ministr...

rand.org

H I Sutton @covertshores.bsky.social · Dec 20

***UPDATE***
Here-> www.hisutton.com/Russia-Ukrai...

Added the latest #Ukrainian Navy maritime drone (USV) to the guide. #OSINT

Bence Nemeth @bencenemeth.bsky.social · Dec 20

My chapter for @randeurope.org argues that as US resolve and capability for NATO is uncertain, Europe must prepare to defend itself against RUS without US support. Stationing 3 European divisions on the Eastern Flank is one of the first steps to credible self-defence. doi.org/10.7249/PEA3...

Strategic Commentaries

These nine essays discuss strategic issues concerning the UK, NATO, China, Russia, North Korea and Iran, and are intended to stimulate reflection, further thinking and discussion within the UK Ministr...

doi.org

Contemporary Security Policy journal @cspjournal.bsky.social · Dec 18

🚨new article online

Looking at the global arms market, in this contribution @soulpark.bsky.social & Chirayu Thakkar argue that demand-side factors play an important part in explaining the success of second-tier producers.
👉 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز @rmomtaz.bsky.social · Dec 17

Essential piece on US-EU/China from @olivierschmitt.bsky.social

“The rapid withdrawal argument is divorced from empirical reality: overlooks Euro eco base of power that wld enable such a quick uptick in defense spending, esp coupled w/potential Trump tariffs”
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

Why a Rapid U.S. Withdrawal From Europe Will Reinforce China

The incoming Trump administration plans to focus on China while letting Europe fend for itself. Yet deprioritizing the transatlantic relationship could backfire, pushing Europe closer to Beijing and undermining U.S. interests in the long term.

carnegieendowment.org

Franz-Stefan Gady @hoanssolo.bsky.social · Dec 11

‘Ukrainian intelligence sent about 20 experienced drone operators and about 150 first-person-view drones to the rebel headquarters in Idlib, Syria, four to five weeks ago to help Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)…the knowledgeable sources said.’ www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Opinion | Syrian rebels had help from Ukraine in humiliating Russia

Eager to bloody Putin’s nose wherever possible, Ukraine supplied drones for the offensive that toppled Assad.

www.washingtonpost.com

Shashank Joshi @shashj.bsky.social · Dec 7

Not the biggest or most important news at the moment, but as the UK’s defence review approaches its denouement you can feel the inter-service tension rising to boiling point. A natural consequence of sustained cuts over last 15 years plus de facto ring-fencing of nuclear enterprise, AUKUS & GCAP.

Sergey Radchenko @radchenko.bsky.social · Dec 7

So for years I’ve been told by friends in the Middle East that Putin enjoys a high standing in the region because he “saved” Assad even as Obama disregarded America’s own red lines. The argument went something like this: “we may not like Putin but we respect strength.”

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