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CJC <3 🇺🇦🌾🚜🌾🇺🇦🇨🇦🇬🇱

@castyman22205.bsky.social

2.6K followers 3.6K following 12K posts

20 year old guy from NJ. Earth sci major at local community college,geosci enthusiast. Reposts/posts stuff related to meteorology,climate science,oceanography,geology,planetary/space science. Atheist. Bi. My philosophical/political views are MINE alone.

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CJC <3 🇺🇦🌾🚜🌾🇺🇦🇨🇦🇬🇱 @castyman22205.bsky.social · Aug 5

Below is a 🧵 of recent (since mid-late July) science news as it relates to what Trump is doing to federal science and related topics. This is meant to keep track of his dismantling and also so I myself don’t miss anything. Also my apologies for any repetitiveness.

CJC <3 🇺🇦🌾🚜🌾🇺🇦🇨🇦🇬🇱 @castyman22205.bsky.social · Aug 4

Thread 🧵 of important science news as it relates to Donald Trump

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Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 4h

Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-10-15T03:10:05Z

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2025 Oct 15 0259 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 2597
Issue Time: 2025 Oct 15 0300 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2025 Oct 15 0259 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Oct 15 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 15-Oct 17 2025 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 15-Oct 17 2025

Oct 15 Oct 16 Oct 17
00-03UT 2.67 3.67 5.00 (G1)
03-06UT 2.33 3.33 4.67 (G1)
06-09UT 2.33 3.00 3.67
09-12UT 2.00 2.67 3.67
12-15UT 2.00 2.67 3.67
15-18UT 2.00 3.33 3.33
18-21UT 3.00 5.33 (G1) 3.00
21-00UT 4.00 5.67 (G2) 2.67

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions are
likely over 16-17 Oct due to the arrival of multiple CMEs from 11-13
Oct.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 15-Oct 17 2025

Oct 15 Oct 16 Oct 17
S1 or greater 10% 10% 10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton
event above the S1 (Minor) levels through 17 Oct.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Oct 14 2025 2036 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 15-Oct 17 2025

Oct 15 Oct 16 Oct 17
R1-R2 55% 55% 55%
R3 or greater 15% 15% 15%

Rationale: Minor to moderate (R1-R2) radio blackouts are likely for the
next 3 days, with a slight chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) event, due
to the current and potential flare activity of Regions 4246 and 4248.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

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All the Galaxies! @allthegalaxies.galaxyzoo.org · 4h

A spiral galaxy, observed with the Hubble Space Telescope in the GEMS survey.

It is at redshift 0.46 (lookback time 4.91 billion years) with coordinates (53.03161, -27.82410).

124 volunteers classified this galaxy in Galaxy Zoo: Hubble.

A spiral galaxy from the Galaxy Zoo: Hubble project, classified by 124 volunteers.

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National Hurricane Center @nhc-atlantic.extwitter.link · 4h

Tropical Storm #Lorenzo Advisory 8: Lorenzo Holding On. http://hurricanes.gov

hurricanes.gov

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Seismological Society of America @seismosocam.bsky.social · 4h

Lahar early warning at Santiaguito volcano in Guatemala is moving toward operational use, according to a new #SRL paper. ⚒️

pubs.geoscienceworld.org/ssa/srl/arti...

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HourlyERA5MapsBot @era5mapsbot.bsky.social · 4h

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Dr. Stephen Bieda III @drwildcatwx.bsky.social · 4h

The #Fall #SevereWeather risk is making a return, with Saturday #October 18th being a day to watch. #SvrWX

IEMBOT SPC @spc.weather.im · 22h

The Storm Prediction Center issues Days 4-8 Convective Outlook (Max Risk: 15% Any Severe) at Oct 14, 8:57z Link

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Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL) @aurora.nws-bot.us · 5h

Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-10-15T02:50:15Z

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2025 Oct 15 0238 UTC
Valid To: 2025 Oct 15 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 5110
Issue Time: 2025 Oct 15 0239 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2025 Oct 15 0238 UTC
Valid To: 2025 Oct 15 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

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Alerts from NWS New York NY (UNOFFICIAL) @okx.nws-bot.us · 5h

OKX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 14, 10:40 PM EDT ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... via IEMbot
Additional Details Here.

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IEMBot New York @okx.weather.im · 5h

#OKX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 14, 10:40 PM EDT ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Link

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National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Alerts (UNOFFICIAL) @nhc-atlc.nws-bot.us · 5h

Atlantic Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 8 issued at Wed, 15 Oct 2025 02:30:47 +0000
...LORENZO HOLDING ON...
Additional Details Here.

000WTNT32 KNHC 150230TCPAT2 BULLETINTropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 8NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL1220251100 PM AST Tue Oct 14 2025 ...LORENZO HOLDING ON... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION-----------------------------------------------LOCATION...19.6N 45.6WABOUT 1440 MI...2320 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDSMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK----------------------At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 45.6 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn to the north is expected overnight, followed by a northeastward motion Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.Little change in strength is forecast and Lorenzo is forecast to dissipate in a couple days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------None. NEXT ADVISORY-------------Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$Forecaster Kelly

Tropical Storm Lorenzo 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image

Tropical Storm Lorenzo 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities

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National Hurricane Center - Atlantic Alerts (UNOFFICIAL) @nhc-atlc.nws-bot.us · 5h

NHC Atlantic Outlook update for Wed, 15 Oct 2025 02:31:14 UTC
Additional Details Here.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL<br>TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM<br><br>Tropical Weather Outlook<br>NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br>800 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025<br><br>For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:<br><br>Active Systems:<br>The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical <br>Storm Lorenzo, located over the central tropical Atlantic.<br><br>Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.<br><br>$$<br>Forecaster Kelly<br>NNNN<br><br><br>

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IEMBOT NHC @nhc.weather.im · 5h

#NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Oct 14, 11:00 PM AST Link

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IEMBOT NHC @nhc.weather.im · 5h

Tropical Storm #Lorenzo ADVISORY 8 issued. #Lorenzo holding on. Link

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CJC <3 🇺🇦🌾🚜🌾🇺🇦🇨🇦🇬🇱 @castyman22205.bsky.social · 4h

bsky.app/profile/wxma...

Alan Gerard @wxmanms1.bsky.social · 5h

ICYMI: NWS supports air traffic controllers through specialized offices collocated with ATC facilities, and several weeks ago the Gov’t Accountability Office issued a memo of concern to about current and future staffing of those offices. More: open.substack.com/pub/balanced...

A look at how NWS supports our air traffic control system - and why it's another staffing concern

Weatherwise: More flooding in southwest Colorado, but a trend toward a few quieter days in store

open.substack.com

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NOAA HRRR smoke forecast CONUS @conus-smoke-forecast.envismo.social · 5h

Near surface smoke forecast for the CONUS area.

Model run: 20251015T01:00 UTC

Data from NOAA's HRRR CONUS (https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/)

Note that this product comes with absolutely no guarantee of availability, accuracy or completeness.

#Wildfires #Smoke #AirQuality

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webberweather.bsky.social @webberweather.bsky.social · 5h

Really intriguing study on the impact of inter-basin SST warming on teleconnection patterns during the strong El Nino winter in 2023-24

www.nature.com/articles/s43...

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CJC <3 🇺🇦🌾🚜🌾🇺🇦🇨🇦🇬🇱 @castyman22205.bsky.social · 4h

bsky.app/profile/astr...

Jasmine 🌌🔭 @astrojaz.bsky.social · 5h

nasa jpl had to lay off over 500 employees today.

science really is under attack with this administration.

CJC <3 🇺🇦🌾🚜🌾🇺🇦🇨🇦🇬🇱 @castyman22205.bsky.social · 4h

The later Congress approves a budget for next year, the more time it buys Russell Vought and Donald Trump to gut NASA and other vital science agencies.

It’s giving me immense anxiety. I’ve contacted by representatives and yet I still feel like nothing is being done to save NASA Science :(

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Seismological Society of America @seismosocam.bsky.social · 5h

In a new #SRL paper, scientists use vertical and transverse component seismic data to track what’s happening underneath Turrialba volcano in Costa Rica. ⚒️

pubs.geoscienceworld.org/ssa/srl/arti...

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HourlyERA5MapsBot @era5mapsbot.bsky.social · 5h

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New Scientist @newscientist.com · 6h

According to the equations that govern black holes, the larger one of these cosmic behemoths is the lower its average density – given that the universe contains a lot of relatively empty space, could the whole cosmos be a black hole?

Is the universe really one big black hole?

www.newscientist.com

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SPC Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Alerts (UNOFFICIAL) @spc-storms.nws-bot.us · 6h

SPC Oct 15, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
⛈️THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
NEW MEXICO🌪️
Additional Details Here.

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All the Galaxies! @allthegalaxies.galaxyzoo.org · 6h

A galaxy with non-smooth features, observed with the Hubble Space Telescope in the COSMOS survey.

It is at redshift 0.69 (lookback time 6.45 billion years) with coordinates (150.00953, 2.18314).

54 volunteers classified this galaxy in Galaxy Zoo: Hubble.

A galaxy with non-smooth features from the Galaxy Zoo: Hubble project, classified by 54 volunteers.

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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 6h

Cool season - as defined by sub-70 degree AMs - is shrinking in the Tampa Bay Area. We now have ~2 months less of AMs below 70F than we did decades ago! Due both to greenhouse warming and, in cities, urban heat island. That's today's Berardelli Bonus. Tks @climatecentral.org for the GFX help!

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Nature Portfolio @natureportfolio.nature.com · 6h

A paper in Nature Communication reports on a new method to produce strong, biodegradable plastic from bamboo. The bioplastic resembles oil-based plastics in strength, shapeability, and thermal stability but can biodegrade in soil within 50 days. go.nature.com/4h1xv0X 🧪

This is figure 5, which shows processability and formability of BM-plastics for diverse products.

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