John Holbein
@johnholbein1.bsky.social
Associate Professor of Public Policy, Politics, and Education @UVA.
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John Holbein
@johnholbein1.bsky.social
· Jun 12
Did you know that your siblings can influence whether you vote?
Well, because of our new working paper you do!
@mike-bloem.bsky.social, @jonisaacsmith.bsky.social, sam imlay
Well, because of our new working paper you do!
@mike-bloem.bsky.social, @jonisaacsmith.bsky.social, sam imlay
This is terrifying.
"[AI agents] can... infer a researcher's latent hypotheses and produce data that artificially confirms them."
...
"We can no longer trust that survey responses are coming from real people" [email protected]
"[AI agents] can... infer a researcher's latent hypotheses and produce data that artificially confirms them."
...
"We can no longer trust that survey responses are coming from real people" [email protected]
(This comment sounds a bit more critical than I intend it to be.)
If mass shootings only have effects in rare conditions, I'm not sure what that says for what we know about democratic accountability.
Also--and this was my (somewhat critical) feedback to Ben Newman and Markarian when I read their recent APSR--looking for effects of mass shootings in hyper-local/rare ballot initiatives feels a little bit like looking for a needle in a haystack.
Interesting. I think you're right to be thinking about supplementary interventions. I have real doubts that relying on these heinous acts alone to promote political change is a losing strategy.
Cool paper; congrats on the hit! Excited to read this.
I wonder if you've thought about the normative implications of a hyper-local effect are.
Something I've thought a little bit about.
I wonder if you've thought about the normative implications of a hyper-local effect are.
Something I've thought a little bit about.
Of course, knowing _that_ turnout increases doesn't tell us whether it changes _how_ people vote. To answer this, we use VEST data to test whether mass shootings impacted the share of votes a neighborhood (precinct) gave to the Democratic presidential candidate in 2016 and 2020. The answer? No.
More evidence that mass shootings don't actually affect electoral outcomes.
Reposted by John Holbein, Michael D. McDonald
Of course, knowing _that_ turnout increases doesn't tell us whether it changes _how_ people vote. To answer this, we use VEST data to test whether mass shootings impacted the share of votes a neighborhood (precinct) gave to the Democratic presidential candidate in 2016 and 2020. The answer? No.
New today at Science Advances from @kshoub.bsky.social and me. We revisit the question of whether a local tragedy (mass shooting) influences voter behavior. They do, at least at the local level, with some important caveats and implications for policy. Short thread...
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
perhaps.
to my eye, grants seem uniquely incestuous.
and far less discussed for their corrupt/shady processes.
to my eye, grants seem uniquely incestuous.
and far less discussed for their corrupt/shady processes.