John R. Deni
@johnrdeni.bsky.social
Research Professor at PME institution, Senior Nonresident Fellow at Atlantic Council, Associate Nonresident Fellow at NATO Defense College. Author of Coalition of the unWilling and unAble. Views are my own.
Political science
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Economics
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John R. Deni
@johnrdeni.bsky.social
· Nov 22
The Role of America’s European Allies in the Russia-Ukraine War, 2022–24
©2024 John R. Deni
What more can US allies in Europe do to assist Ukraine militarily? More broadly, what can the United States expect from its closest allies in Europe in strategic competition with Ru...
press.armywarcollege.edu
If US stops supporting UKR's effort to defend itself, can Europe fill the gap? Which countries can do more? What are the hurdles? What can all allies do to promote Europe's ability to carry more of the load? Lisa Aronsson & I address all in latest monograph.
press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/9...
press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/9...
It looks like Ukraine will reach the moment it has been fearing but also probably preparing for: the end of US support.
Ukraine simply cannot agree to this surrender document. It is not losing the war (it is not winning either). It can and will fight on. Time for Europe to step up.... sigh.
Ukraine simply cannot agree to this surrender document. It is not losing the war (it is not winning either). It can and will fight on. Time for Europe to step up.... sigh.
This is not a peace deal and it’s not asking anything of the Russians. It’s just the US on behalf of the Russians pressuring Ukraine to surrender www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...
That's really the only silver lining here -- that this may spur the Belgians to *finally* give in on seizing (or otherwise using) frozen RU assets.
www.reuters.com
"Exclusive: US threatens to cut intel, weapons to press Ukraine into peace deal, sources say" www.reuters.com/world/europe...
Europe to Trump: Your Ukraine peace plan is no plan at all
U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff’s ceasefire blueprint is a blow to dismayed Europeans who thought Trump finally understood that you can’t trust Putin.
www.politico.eu
As if it wasn't already obvious, latest peace effort indicates US and European interests on RU's war in UKR diverging. "Europe to Trump: Your Ukraine peace plan is no plan at all" www.politico.eu/article/euro...
Reposted by John R. Deni
This is not a peace deal and it’s not asking anything of the Russians. It’s just the US on behalf of the Russians pressuring Ukraine to surrender www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...
U.S. pushing Ukraine to sign peace deal by Thanksgiving or lose support
The U.S. is now sending “signals” that everything could be off the table if Kyiv does not quickly sign a proposal, which was drawn up by special envoy Witkoff.
www.washingtonpost.com
It looks like Ukraine will reach the moment it has been fearing but also probably preparing for: the end of US support.
Ukraine simply cannot agree to this surrender document. It is not losing the war (it is not winning either). It can and will fight on. Time for Europe to step up.... sigh.
Ukraine simply cannot agree to this surrender document. It is not losing the war (it is not winning either). It can and will fight on. Time for Europe to step up.... sigh.
www.army.mil
USAREUR-AF exercises its role as NATO Multi-Corps Land Component Command (MCLCC), and helps NATO LANDCOM train for same, commanding 7(!) Allied corps. www.army.mil/article/2890...
Russia's flagship oil price drops as buyers retreat ahead of US sanctions
Discounts on Urals relative to Brent reached $23.5 per barrel, the widest gap since June 2023.
kyivindependent.com
Russia's flagship oil price drops as buyers retreat ahead of US sanctions kyivindependent.com/russias-flag...
China’s EV Market Is Imploding
Beijing’s grand ambitions threaten to take down the global car industry.
www.theatlantic.com
China’s EV Market Is Imploding: "China’s state-led EV program, by design, has been predatory. ... Bloated by excessive investment, distorted by government intervention, and plagued by heavy losses, China’s EV industry appears destined for a crash." www.theatlantic.com/internationa...
www.euractiv.com
"The IMF said that Europe’s debt levels risk becoming 'explosive' if business & labour reforms are not implemented & deficits are not slashed by boosting tax revenue, curbing social spending, & improving government efficiency.” www.euractiv.com/news/europes...
Thank you, Jason!
Russia ends seasonal draft model, moves to year-round conscription from 2026
While Russian conscripts are officially barred from being deployed abroad, reports indicate that many are pressured into signing contracts with Russia's Defense Ministry and sent to fight in Ukraine.
kyivindependent.com
Russia ends seasonal draft model, moves to year-round conscription from 2026 kyivindependent.com/putin-signs-...
Reposted by John R. Deni
Because I didn't have to teach on election day, I was able to read some recently published articles.
The highlight was @johnrdeni.bsky.social's recent analysis of NATO's response to the "shock" of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. I highly recommend it.
The highlight was @johnrdeni.bsky.social's recent analysis of NATO's response to the "shock" of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. I highly recommend it.
NATO member Romania signs agreement with Germany’s Rheinmetall to build a gunpowder plant
NATO member Romania has signed an agreement with Germany’s defense company Rheinmetall to build a gunpowder factory in central Romania, as Europe races to rearm itself in the face of an increasingly p...
apnews.com
NATO member Romania signs agreement with Germany’s Rheinmetall to build a gunpowder plant apnews.com/article/roma...
There appears to be a disconnect between the reporting on this and what the US Army is actually doing. This USAREUR-AF press release makes it clear the entire IBCT(-) is redeploying without replacement: www.europeafrica.army.mil/ArticleViewP...
And note the rationale -- essentially, Europe's increasing capability makes this move possible.
Reposted by John R. Deni
Is a drawdown of US forces from Europe all but certain and what would it mean? by The Global Agora
John Deni is a Research Professor of Joint, Interagency, Intergovernmental, and Multinational (JIIM) Security Studies at the U.S. Army War College's Strategic Studies Institute. He just wrote an artic...
podcasters.spotify.com
As Romania says US will cut some troops in Europe, here is my debate with @johnrdeni.bsky.social - #TheGlobalAgora #podcast:
▶️ Is a drawdown of US forces from #Europe all but certain and what would it mean?
podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/and... #Trump #NATO #security #defense
▶️ Is a drawdown of US forces from #Europe all but certain and what would it mean?
podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/and... #Trump #NATO #security #defense
There appears to be a disconnect between the reporting on this and what the US Army is actually doing. This USAREUR-AF press release makes it clear the entire IBCT(-) is redeploying without replacement: www.europeafrica.army.mil/ArticleViewP...
US troops on Nato's eastern flank to be reduced, Romania says
Bucharest said between 900 and 1,000 American troops would remain stationed in Romania - down from 1,700.
bbc.com
US will reduce its troops on Nato's eastern flank, Romania says bbc.com/news/article...
John R. Deni
@johnrdeni.bsky.social
· Oct 27
Lithuania shuts Vilnius airport, Belarus border in fourth airspace incident this week
NATO member Lithuania closed Vilnius Airport and Belarus border crossings on Sunday after several objects, identified as likely helium balloons, entered its airspace, the National Crisis Management Centre said, the fourth such incident this week.
www.reuters.com
Lithuania shuts Vilnius airport, Belarus border in fourth airspace incident this week www.reuters.com/world/europe...
John R. Deni
@johnrdeni.bsky.social
· Oct 23
SBU reveals next-gen Sea Baby naval drones, confirms use in June Crimea Bridge attack
In a video, the SBU revealed two versions of the new drones.
kyivindependent.com
SBU reveals next-gen Sea Baby naval drones, confirms use in June Crimea Bridge attack kyivindependent.com/sbu-releases...
John R. Deni
@johnrdeni.bsky.social
· Oct 22
Ukraine strikes Russian chemical plant with Storm Shadow missiles, military says kyivindependent.com/breaking-ukr...
John R. Deni
@johnrdeni.bsky.social
· Oct 22
After Trump’s turn toward Putin, NATO leader rushes to Washington
Secretary General Mark Rutte will meet with the president at the White House this week.
politi.co
After Trump’s turn toward Putin, NATO leader rushes to Washington politi.co/4o2MY3L via @politico.com
John R. Deni
@johnrdeni.bsky.social
· Oct 21
Ukraine preparing long-term contract for 25 Patriot systems after meetings in US, Zelensky says
According to Zelensky, the proposed contract for 25 Patriot systems would be carried out over several years, "with different quantities each year."
kyivindependent.com
Ukraine preparing long-term contract for 25 Patriot systems after meetings in US, Zelensky says kyivindependent.com/ukraine-prep...
John R. Deni
@johnrdeni.bsky.social
· Oct 16
The Army's new tank will roll out a decade early. Here’s how they did it
Soldiers are expected to be riding in the M1E3 next year, well ahead of the tank's planned 2030s arrival.
www.defenseone.com
The Army's new tank will roll out a decade early. Here’s how they did it www.defenseone.com/defense-syst... via @defenseone.bsky.social
John R. Deni
@johnrdeni.bsky.social
· Oct 16
Pressure mounts on NATO allies to go all-in on Trump arms scheme for Ukraine
A majority of NATO countries have joined the PURL scheme, and the rest are under pressure “to put your money where your mouth is.”
www.politico.eu
Pressure mounts on NATO allies to go all-in on Trump arms scheme for Ukraine www.politico.eu/article/pres...
John R. Deni
@johnrdeni.bsky.social
· Oct 15
Germany pledges big military aid package to Ukraine as Kyiv puts 2026 defense needs at $120 billion
Germany plans to send more than $2 billion in military aid to Ukraine amid concerns about dwindling Western support.
apnews.com
Germany pledges big military aid package to Ukraine as Kyiv puts 2026 defense needs at $120 billion apnews.com/article/nato...
John R. Deni
@johnrdeni.bsky.social
· Oct 15
NATO agonizes over leaky air defenses while Russian threat grows
Mounting drone incursions are sparking a debate on national rules that some see as limiting NATO’s top military officer.
www.politico.eu
NATO agonizes over leaky air defenses while Russian threat grows www.politico.eu/article/nato...
John R. Deni
@johnrdeni.bsky.social
· Oct 15
Fresh fractures in German coalition over 'lottery' military service feud | Euractiv
According to media reports, the Social Democrats were unimpressed with the compromise struck with their coalition partners
www.euractiv.com
Fresh fractures in German coalition over 'lottery' military service feud www.euractiv.com/news/fresh-f...
John R. Deni
@johnrdeni.bsky.social
· Oct 15
US defense manufacturer reveals new Tomahawk launcher — just what Ukraine would need to hit Russia
The Tomahawk's range would open up great swathes of Russia to Ukrainian long-range missile strikes, most notably Moscow and St. Petersburg.
kyivindependent.com
US defense manufacturer reveals new Tomahawk launcher — just what Ukraine would need to hit Russia kyivindependent.com/american-def...
John R. Deni
@johnrdeni.bsky.social
· Oct 15
Political Turmoil in France Weighs on Businesses and Investors
www.nytimes.com
Unfortunately, this looks like real backtracking on Macron's incomplete economic reform agenda: Political Turmoil in France Weighs on Businesses and Investors www.nytimes.com/2025/10/14/b...
John R. Deni
@johnrdeni.bsky.social
· Oct 9
Putin Admits Russia’s Role in Downing Azerbaijani Passenger Jet
The incident last year further eroded Moscow’s influence across the former Soviet states.
www.wsj.com
Putin Admits Russia’s Role in Downing Azerbaijani Passenger Jet www.wsj.com/world/russia...