John R. Deni
@johnrdeni.bsky.social
Research Professor at PME institution, Senior Nonresident Fellow at Atlantic Council, Associate Nonresident Fellow at NATO Defense College. Author of Coalition of the unWilling and unAble. Views are my own.
Political science
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Economics
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John R. Deni
@johnrdeni.bsky.social
· Nov 22
The Role of America’s European Allies in the Russia-Ukraine War, 2022–24
©2024 John R. Deni
What more can US allies in Europe do to assist Ukraine militarily? More broadly, what can the United States expect from its closest allies in Europe in strategic competition with Ru...
press.armywarcollege.edu
If US stops supporting UKR's effort to defend itself, can Europe fill the gap? Which countries can do more? What are the hurdles? What can all allies do to promote Europe's ability to carry more of the load? Lisa Aronsson & I address all in latest monograph.
press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/9...
press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/9...
Trump Announces 10 Percent Tariff on European Countries in Standoff Over Greenland
www.nytimes.com
After what appeared like a not-as-bad-as-it-coulda-been 2025, the unraveling of the Western world and the transatlantic community seems to be accelerating. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/17/u...
European troops arrive in Greenland as Trump throws another curveball
Russia said NATO members were bolstering their military presences in the Arctic territory “under the false pretext of a growing threat from Moscow and Beijing.”
www.nbcnews.com
If the goal is to get our European allies to expend resources on military operations that are unrelated to the most significant threats we face today, then we are witnessing incredible success. www.nbcnews.com/world/greenl...
7 Out Of 10 Voters Do Not Want The U.S. To Take Military Action
Against Iran For Killing Of Protesters,
Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds;
70% Say Presidents Should Seek Congressional Appr...
"Talk of the U.S. military potentially intervening in Iran's internal chaos gets a vigorous thumbs down, while voters signal Congressional approval should be a backstop against military involvement in...
poll.qu.edu
Meanwhile, "86 percent [of Americans] opposed using military force to take over Greenland, and 55 percent opposed buying it." poll.qu.edu/poll-release...
Denmark and allies boost Greenland military footprint as Trump ramps up pressure
The deployment comes as U.S. President Donald Trump intensifies talk of taking over the Arctic island.
www.politico.eu
This is what disaster in transatlantic relations looks like. Instead of spending money on defense against our common Kremlin enemy, we've compelled our best friends to do so against us. "DNK & allies boost Greenland military footprint as Trump ramps up pressure" www.politico.eu/article/denm... 😞
Netherlands dials back on US Caribbean drug missions amid Venezuela tensions
Dutch defense forces traditionally worked closely with the U.S. but are balking after U.S. attacks on suspected smuggling boats.
www.politico.eu
Just what we needed -- less help from friends. "Netherlands dials back on US Caribbean drug missions amid Venezuela tensions" www.politico.eu/article/neth...
Le20h-France Télévisions on X: "🔴ENTRETIEN EXCLUSIF : "Il n’y a pas de scénario où les États-Unis seraient mis dans une situation de violer la souveraineté danoise." Emmanuel Macron réagit aux propos de Donald Trump sur le Groenland. #JT20h https://t.co/uOTEGfBGIC" / X
🔴ENTRETIEN EXCLUSIF
x.com
For one of Europe's 'big thinkers', I'm a little surprised at such a failure of imagination: x.com/le20hfrancet...
Agree, the threat of retaliation has to be both more personal to Trump - he's done in Europe - and also economic (trade deal dead, massive retaliation vs. US tech/stock market).
These comments -- "Danish prime minister says a US takeover of Greenland would mark the end of NATO" -- are getting a lot of press... but, given the politics of DC today, I doubt they form the deterrent Danish leaders hope for. DNK needs a different line of argument. www.npr.org/2026/01/06/n...
A cost-benefit analysis would also help -- what are the costs associated with 'owning' it (something tells me it'd immediately become a large net recipient of federal transfers) vs. those associated with merely expanding our mil/econ footprint there?
Agreed. Not sure whether DC would prioritise NATO over Greenland?
These comments -- "Danish prime minister says a US takeover of Greenland would mark the end of NATO" -- are getting a lot of press... but, given the politics of DC today, I doubt they form the deterrent Danish leaders hope for. DNK needs a different line of argument. www.npr.org/2026/01/06/n...
I think it depends on what part of 'DC' we're talking about.
Reposted by John R. Deni, Arnaud Mercier
These comments -- "Danish prime minister says a US takeover of Greenland would mark the end of NATO" -- are getting a lot of press... but, given the politics of DC today, I doubt they form the deterrent Danish leaders hope for. DNK needs a different line of argument. www.npr.org/2026/01/06/n...
Danish prime minister says a US takeover of Greenland would mark the end of NATO
Her comments came in response to U.S. President Donald Trump's renewed call for the strategic, mineral-rich Arctic island to come under U.S. control in the aftermath of the weekend military operation ...
www.npr.org
Agree, the threat of retaliation has to be both more personal to Trump - he's done in Europe - and also economic (trade deal dead, massive retaliation vs. US tech/stock market).
Reposted by John R. Deni
These comments -- "Danish prime minister says a US takeover of Greenland would mark the end of NATO" -- are getting a lot of press... but, given the politics of DC today, I doubt they form the deterrent Danish leaders hope for. DNK needs a different line of argument. www.npr.org/2026/01/06/n...
Danish prime minister says a US takeover of Greenland would mark the end of NATO
Her comments came in response to U.S. President Donald Trump's renewed call for the strategic, mineral-rich Arctic island to come under U.S. control in the aftermath of the weekend military operation ...
www.npr.org
Agreed. Not sure whether DC would prioritise NATO over Greenland?
Danish prime minister says a US takeover of Greenland would mark the end of NATO
Her comments came in response to U.S. President Donald Trump's renewed call for the strategic, mineral-rich Arctic island to come under U.S. control in the aftermath of the weekend military operation ...
www.npr.org
These comments -- "Danish prime minister says a US takeover of Greenland would mark the end of NATO" -- are getting a lot of press... but, given the politics of DC today, I doubt they form the deterrent Danish leaders hope for. DNK needs a different line of argument. www.npr.org/2026/01/06/n...
Joint Statement on Greenland
Statement by President Macron of France, Chancellor Merz of Germany, Prime Minister Meloni of Italy, Prime Minister Tusk of Poland, Prime Minister Sánchez of Spain, Prime Minister Starmer of the Unite...
www.governo.it
Joint Statement on Greenland clarifies what shouldn't be too terribly confusing: "Greenland belongs to its people. It is for Denmark and Greenland, and them only, to decide on matters concerning Denmark and Greenland." www.governo.it/en/articolo/...
'Welcome back to life' — Ukraine's HUR faked death of top anti-Putin Russian commander, claimed Kremlin bounty money
Denis Kapustin, commander of the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), was reported killed in action on Dec. 27.
kyivindependent.com
'Welcome back to life' — Ukraine's HUR faked death of top anti-Putin Russian commander, claimed Kremlin bounty money
kyivindependent.com/ukraines-hur...
kyivindependent.com/ukraines-hur...
Russia is ready to legally confirm that it has no intention of attacking NATO, deputy minister says
Russia is ready to confirm in a legal agreement that it has no intention of attacking either the European Union or the U.S.-led NATO military alliance, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov s...
www.reuters.com
By 'legal', do they mean Budapest-Memorandum legal, CFE-Treaty legal, or Vienna-Documents legal? "Russia is ready to legally confirm that it has no intention of attacking NATO, deputy minister says" www.reuters.com/world/china/...
John R. Deni
@johnrdeni.bsky.social
· Dec 11
NATO and Article 5: The Transatlantic Alliance and the Twenty-First-Century Challenges of Collective Defense
NATO and Article 5: The Transatlantic Alliance and the Twenty-First-Century Challenges of Collective Defense [Deni, John R.] on Amazon.com. *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers. NATO and Article 5: The Transatlantic Alliance and the Twenty-First-Century Challenges of Collective Defense
www.amazon.com
And this is nothing new -- as I argued in Chapter 3 here (www.amazon.com/NATO-Transat...). RU won't change its stripes. If Europeans finally learned 'Wandel durch Handel' doesn't work, seems unwise to try to convince them otherwise. 5/5
John R. Deni
@johnrdeni.bsky.social
· Dec 11
Namely, the Russians - they have no interest in playing by the rules of the game, in enacting the kind of transparency necessary, in forgoing corruption as a central feature of society and government, or in treating smaller neighbors as if they are sovereign and independent. 4/
John R. Deni
@johnrdeni.bsky.social
· Dec 11
This approach was tried for 25 years, from the end of the Cold War until 2014. It didn't work then, despite a couple of resets, and it won't work today for one primary reason... 3/
John R. Deni
@johnrdeni.bsky.social
· Dec 11
...is the stunning naivete behind this notion: "The U.S. negotiating team sees shared economic activity and energy interdependence as the cornerstone of its business-for-peace philosophy" 2/
John R. Deni
@johnrdeni.bsky.social
· Dec 11
Exclusive | U.S. Blueprint to Rewire Economies of Russia, Ukraine Sets Off Clash With Europe
Undisclosed appendices to current peace proposals detail the Trump administration’s plan to unlock frozen Russian funds held in Europe and bring Moscow in from the cold.
www.wsj.com
What's most stunning about this non-paywalled story ("U.S. Blueprint to Rewire Economies of Russia, Ukraine Sets Off Clash With Europe" www.wsj.com/world/europe...) ... 1/
John R. Deni
@johnrdeni.bsky.social
· Dec 10
Trump’s Nvidia Chip Deal Reverses Decades of Technology Restrictions
www.nytimes.com
Trump’s Nvidia Chip Deal Reverses Decades of Technology Restrictions www.nytimes.com/2025/12/09/u...
John R. Deni
@johnrdeni.bsky.social
· Dec 6
US Promises Pre-Christmas Arms Boost for Ukraine, Pushes for Europe-Led NATO by 2027
Senior US defense officials warned European partners that while military aid to Kyiv is set to rise, Washington will no longer anchor NATO’s conventional defenses past 2027.
www.kyivpost.com
This is the best summary I've seen so far of what European allies were told this past week about shifting US priorities in Europe and how they will manifest: "US Promises Pre-Christmas Arms Boost for Ukraine, Pushes for Europe-Led NATO by 2027" www.kyivpost.com/post/65690
John R. Deni
@johnrdeni.bsky.social
· Dec 5
Exclusive: US sets 2027 deadline for Europe-led NATO defense, officials say
The United States wants Europe to take over the majority of NATO's conventional defense capabilities, from intelligence to missiles, by 2027, Pentagon officials told diplomats in Washington this week,...
www.reuters.com
US sets 2027 deadline for Europe-led NATO defense, officials say www.reuters.com/business/aer...
John R. Deni
@johnrdeni.bsky.social
· Dec 5
JFC Norfolk, like other two JFCs, is indeed under SACEUR's command... even though located closer to SACT than Mons.
Reposted by Kori Schake
John R. Deni
@johnrdeni.bsky.social
· Dec 4
NATO restructures command to boost security in north
NATO will this week integrate its Nordic nations under the U.S.-based Joint Force Command Norfolk in an effort to improve transatlantic security and boost the alliance's positioning in the high north,...
www.reuters.com
For all you NATO Command Structure nerds it there, it looks like JFC Norfolk has reached FOC: "NATO restructures command to boost security in north" www.reuters.com/world/nato-r...
John R. Deni
@johnrdeni.bsky.social
· Dec 3
Commission unveils €165B loan to Ukraine using Russian frozen assets
Belgium’s foreign minister has already expressed concerns over the plan.
www.politico.eu
Commission unveils €165B loan to Ukraine using Russian frozen assets www.politico.eu/article/comm...
John R. Deni
@johnrdeni.bsky.social
· Dec 2
NATO allies ‘punching below their weight’ face pressure to buy arms for Ukraine
Some non-NATO countries like Australia and New Zealand plan to chip in to the PURL scheme, while other allies are doing much less.
www.politico.eu
NATO allies ‘punching below their weight’ face pressure to buy arms for Ukraine www.politico.eu/article/nato...
John R. Deni
@johnrdeni.bsky.social
· Nov 21
It looks like Ukraine will reach the moment it has been fearing but also probably preparing for: the end of US support.
Ukraine simply cannot agree to this surrender document. It is not losing the war (it is not winning either). It can and will fight on. Time for Europe to step up.... sigh.
Ukraine simply cannot agree to this surrender document. It is not losing the war (it is not winning either). It can and will fight on. Time for Europe to step up.... sigh.
This is not a peace deal and it’s not asking anything of the Russians. It’s just the US on behalf of the Russians pressuring Ukraine to surrender www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...
That's really the only silver lining here -- that this may spur the Belgians to *finally* give in on seizing (or otherwise using) frozen RU assets.
John R. Deni
@johnrdeni.bsky.social
· Nov 21
www.reuters.com
"Exclusive: US threatens to cut intel, weapons to press Ukraine into peace deal, sources say" www.reuters.com/world/europe...
John R. Deni
@johnrdeni.bsky.social
· Nov 21
Europe to Trump: Your Ukraine peace plan is no plan at all
U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff’s ceasefire blueprint is a blow to dismayed Europeans who thought Trump finally understood that you can’t trust Putin.
www.politico.eu
As if it wasn't already obvious, latest peace effort indicates US and European interests on RU's war in UKR diverging. "Europe to Trump: Your Ukraine peace plan is no plan at all" www.politico.eu/article/euro...
Reposted by John R. Deni
Steve Saideman
@smsaideman.bsky.social
· Nov 21
This is not a peace deal and it’s not asking anything of the Russians. It’s just the US on behalf of the Russians pressuring Ukraine to surrender www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...
U.S. pushing Ukraine to sign peace deal by Thanksgiving or lose support
The U.S. is now sending “signals” that everything could be off the table if Kyiv does not quickly sign a proposal, which was drawn up by special envoy Witkoff.
www.washingtonpost.com
It looks like Ukraine will reach the moment it has been fearing but also probably preparing for: the end of US support.
Ukraine simply cannot agree to this surrender document. It is not losing the war (it is not winning either). It can and will fight on. Time for Europe to step up.... sigh.
Ukraine simply cannot agree to this surrender document. It is not losing the war (it is not winning either). It can and will fight on. Time for Europe to step up.... sigh.