Jason Davidson
@profjwdavidson.bsky.social
Non-Resident Senior Fellow at Atlantic Council/ Prof at U of Mary Washington
Research on NATO/ Transatlantic Security
Racing cyclist
Research on NATO/ Transatlantic Security
Racing cyclist
Pinned
What explains the transatlantic rift? It’s all about threat perception.
NATO allies’ differing threat perceptions provide the backdrop for what could be a contentious summit in The Hague this month.
www.atlanticcouncil.org
Some like to divide NATO allies into "good" ones who spend a lot on defense and "bad" ones/free riders who don't.
I argue in this @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social essay that differences in threat perception explain spending differences.
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
I argue in this @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social essay that differences in threat perception explain spending differences.
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
Reposted by Jason Davidson
“If Britain is ever to give up clutching at Uncle Sam’s coattails, it must change its partner for upgrading its nuclear deterrent from America to France, and use that cooperation to present Vladimir Putin with a combined European nuclear deterrent that should keep him honest.”
Escaping the special relationship: How Britain can leave its dangerous dependency on Trump’s America – European Council on Foreign Relations
The British prime minister has long said the UK does not need to choose between the US and Europe. The time has come for him to admit he is wrong
ecfr.eu
February 12, 2026 at 12:01 PM
“If Britain is ever to give up clutching at Uncle Sam’s coattails, it must change its partner for upgrading its nuclear deterrent from America to France, and use that cooperation to present Vladimir Putin with a combined European nuclear deterrent that should keep him honest.”
Reposted by Jason Davidson
Ukrainian Olympian Vladyslav Heraskevych has expressed gratitude to his fellow Ukrainians for their words of support.
1/2
1/2
February 12, 2026 at 12:00 PM
Ukrainian Olympian Vladyslav Heraskevych has expressed gratitude to his fellow Ukrainians for their words of support.
1/2
1/2
Reposted by Jason Davidson
The moment you arrive, you know this year’s Munich Security Conference will be different. #MSC2026
As @nicolange.bsky.social said so powerfully at the @atlantikbruecke.bsky.social dinner
- Europe needs to grow its backbone.
Helsing provides the tools to do just that.
@munsecconf.bsky.social
As @nicolange.bsky.social said so powerfully at the @atlantikbruecke.bsky.social dinner
- Europe needs to grow its backbone.
Helsing provides the tools to do just that.
@munsecconf.bsky.social
February 12, 2026 at 12:06 PM
The moment you arrive, you know this year’s Munich Security Conference will be different. #MSC2026
As @nicolange.bsky.social said so powerfully at the @atlantikbruecke.bsky.social dinner
- Europe needs to grow its backbone.
Helsing provides the tools to do just that.
@munsecconf.bsky.social
As @nicolange.bsky.social said so powerfully at the @atlantikbruecke.bsky.social dinner
- Europe needs to grow its backbone.
Helsing provides the tools to do just that.
@munsecconf.bsky.social
Oh my. I'm usually literally "out and biking" every day of the week, which I guess explains why I misunderstand so many things....
This is more funny than the author knows because ”to be out and biking” is a Swedish idiom meaning that you’ve totally misunderstood something.
Apart from the catchy headline, many very good points in the text by Stephen M. Walt. Worth your while.
Apart from the catchy headline, many very good points in the text by Stephen M. Walt. Worth your while.
NATO’s Leader Is Totally Lost
What does Mark Rutte think he’s doing?
foreignpolicy.com
February 12, 2026 at 12:44 PM
Oh my. I'm usually literally "out and biking" every day of the week, which I guess explains why I misunderstand so many things....
“But now, far from taking the transatlantic deterrence offered by the NATO alliance for granted, the European public hardly believe it exists — the main question for the leaders heading to MSC now is how the security it offered can be recreated without the U.S.”
www.politico.com/news/2026/02...
www.politico.com/news/2026/02...
Poll: Top NATO allies don’t think US helps deter enemies anymore
The United States' eroding reputation is raising fresh questions about the stability of the global order that has held for decades, and of the country's strength on the world stage.
www.politico.com
February 12, 2026 at 12:12 PM
“But now, far from taking the transatlantic deterrence offered by the NATO alliance for granted, the European public hardly believe it exists — the main question for the leaders heading to MSC now is how the security it offered can be recreated without the U.S.”
www.politico.com/news/2026/02...
www.politico.com/news/2026/02...
Worth reading this case for optimism regarding the transatlantic relationship.
I've heard similar things from others I respect, but I fear there's a little too much wishful thinking regarding damage already done (Greenland, "civilizational erasure," etc.).
I've heard similar things from others I respect, but I fear there's a little too much wishful thinking regarding damage already done (Greenland, "civilizational erasure," etc.).
The alliance between Europe and America is deeply wounded 一 but it’s not dead yet.
The Munich Security Conference this week will serve as a gut check of the transatlantic tie, notably frayed but still bound together. With @paulmcleary.bsky.social , Felicia Schwartz www.politico.com/news/2026/02...
The Munich Security Conference this week will serve as a gut check of the transatlantic tie, notably frayed but still bound together. With @paulmcleary.bsky.social , Felicia Schwartz www.politico.com/news/2026/02...
The transatlantic alliance is down but not out
The Munich Security Conference will serve as a gut check of the frayed relationship, and whether Europe can hold on to its emerging self-assurance.
www.politico.com
February 11, 2026 at 1:19 PM
Worth reading this case for optimism regarding the transatlantic relationship.
I've heard similar things from others I respect, but I fear there's a little too much wishful thinking regarding damage already done (Greenland, "civilizational erasure," etc.).
I've heard similar things from others I respect, but I fear there's a little too much wishful thinking regarding damage already done (Greenland, "civilizational erasure," etc.).
Reposted by Jason Davidson
NATO says it has begun a mission to strengthen its presence in the Arctic - part of efforts to defuse severe tensions in the alliance prompted by U.S. President Donald Trump's desire for the U.S. to acquire Greenland.
NATO has begun "Arctic Sentry", a mission to strengthen its presence in the Arctic
NATO said on Wednesday it had begun a mission to strengthen its presence in the Arctic as part of an agreement to defuse severe tensions within the alliance prompted by U.S. President Donald Trump's d...
www.reuters.com
February 11, 2026 at 12:51 PM
NATO says it has begun a mission to strengthen its presence in the Arctic - part of efforts to defuse severe tensions in the alliance prompted by U.S. President Donald Trump's desire for the U.S. to acquire Greenland.
Forgive the Trump administration, they know not what they do (honestly, they seem to be absolutely clueless about how Europeans see their policies).
February 11, 2026 at 12:36 PM
Forgive the Trump administration, they know not what they do (honestly, they seem to be absolutely clueless about how Europeans see their policies).
If France or the UK helped Poland develop nuclear weapons, the chances of deterring Russian aggression v. NATO's East would improve dramatically.
www.politico.eu/article/us-d...
www.politico.eu/article/us-d...
Trump’s Greenland gambit pushes Europe to look to its own nuclear arsenals
European nations wanting “insurance” against Russia are looking to France and Britain to share their nuclear deterrents.
www.politico.eu
February 9, 2026 at 12:31 PM
If France or the UK helped Poland develop nuclear weapons, the chances of deterring Russian aggression v. NATO's East would improve dramatically.
www.politico.eu/article/us-d...
www.politico.eu/article/us-d...
Sounds like neo-royalism to me (if you haven't, read Stacie Goddard and @abenewman.bsky.social in IO on the concept).
>The U.S. ambassador in Warsaw cut off contact with Poland's parliament speaker on Thursday, accusing him of insulting Donald Trump after he criticised the president's policies and declined to support his Nobel Peace Prize ambitions.
Tantrums as foreign policy
Tantrums as foreign policy
US cuts contact with Polish parliament speaker over Trump 'insults' reut.rs/4ahobTG
February 5, 2026 at 6:32 PM
Sounds like neo-royalism to me (if you haven't, read Stacie Goddard and @abenewman.bsky.social in IO on the concept).
Putin+Trump almost = European unity
Simon Kuper: "Donald Trump. He has probably done more to unite Europe than any European ever did."
www.ft.com/content/dc9e...
www.ft.com/content/dc9e...
Trump is Europe’s best enemy yet
Lack of a common foe enfeebled Europe — but not any more
www.ft.com
February 5, 2026 at 3:57 PM
Putin+Trump almost = European unity
Reposted by Jason Davidson
Simon Kuper: "Donald Trump. He has probably done more to unite Europe than any European ever did."
www.ft.com/content/dc9e...
www.ft.com/content/dc9e...
Trump is Europe’s best enemy yet
Lack of a common foe enfeebled Europe — but not any more
www.ft.com
February 5, 2026 at 3:42 PM
Simon Kuper: "Donald Trump. He has probably done more to unite Europe than any European ever did."
www.ft.com/content/dc9e...
www.ft.com/content/dc9e...
This is what they mean by "cultivating resistance"
A planned meeting in Washington collapsed after U.S. State Department officials told the German embassy it refused to meet with center-left German lawmakers.
It’s unclear, however, who ultimately cancelled the appointment.
🔗 www.politico.eu/article/dona...
It’s unclear, however, who ultimately cancelled the appointment.
🔗 www.politico.eu/article/dona...
February 5, 2026 at 12:47 PM
This is what they mean by "cultivating resistance"
Is there any evidence/are there any examples where disinformation campaigns reversed a position that 76% of the public already held (in this case % of Greenlanders opposed to US annexation)?
www.politico.eu/article/dona...
www.politico.eu/article/dona...
How Europe could lose the war over Greenland
The Danish territory is vulnerable to the power wielded by the U.S. administration online.
www.politico.eu
February 5, 2026 at 12:38 PM
Is there any evidence/are there any examples where disinformation campaigns reversed a position that 76% of the public already held (in this case % of Greenlanders opposed to US annexation)?
www.politico.eu/article/dona...
www.politico.eu/article/dona...
Excellent new article on some of the factors limiting effective defense spending in Italy.
foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/04/n...
foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/04/n...
NATO Is Thinking About Defense Spending Wrong
Prioritizing GDP-based targets doesn’t necessarily strengthen military capabilities, as Italy shows.
foreignpolicy.com
February 4, 2026 at 10:04 PM
Excellent new article on some of the factors limiting effective defense spending in Italy.
foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/04/n...
foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/04/n...
Important reporting on Russia's space threat to European satellites
“The Russian activities are a fundamental threat to all of us, especially in space. A threat we must no longer ignore,” German Defense Minister Pistorius
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
“The Russian activities are a fundamental threat to all of us, especially in space. A threat we must no longer ignore,” German Defense Minister Pistorius
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Russian spy spacecraft have intercepted Europe’s key satellites, officials believe
Unencrypted European communications are being targeted by Moscow
giftarticle.ft.com
February 4, 2026 at 1:00 PM
Important reporting on Russia's space threat to European satellites
“The Russian activities are a fundamental threat to all of us, especially in space. A threat we must no longer ignore,” German Defense Minister Pistorius
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
“The Russian activities are a fundamental threat to all of us, especially in space. A threat we must no longer ignore,” German Defense Minister Pistorius
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Reposted by Jason Davidson
Former chief of the Defence Staff Wayne Eyre suggested that Canada should keep the nuclear weapons option open. Yet, despite everything happening with the US these days, we should expect little allied nuclear proliferation in the foreseeable future despite such talk. substack.com/home/post/p-...
Nuclear Proliferation in the Second Trump Era
Worries abound once more that U.S. treaty allies will now seek nuclear weapons--thankfully, it is not so simple.
substack.com
February 3, 2026 at 2:00 PM
Former chief of the Defence Staff Wayne Eyre suggested that Canada should keep the nuclear weapons option open. Yet, despite everything happening with the US these days, we should expect little allied nuclear proliferation in the foreseeable future despite such talk. substack.com/home/post/p-...
@shashj.bsky.social and @sophiepedder.bsky.social making the case that France's arsenal might be small but proximity makes it more credible than any US pledge (leaving aside Trump).
www.economist.com/europe/2026/...
www.economist.com/europe/2026/...
Can Europe do nuclear deterrence without America?
Britain and France are deepening their co-operation
www.economist.com
February 3, 2026 at 3:22 PM
@shashj.bsky.social and @sophiepedder.bsky.social making the case that France's arsenal might be small but proximity makes it more credible than any US pledge (leaving aside Trump).
www.economist.com/europe/2026/...
www.economist.com/europe/2026/...
In the UK, there will be public resistance to doing the hard things necessary to develop the ability to deter Russian aggression without the US. Politicians must do more to make the case for why it is absolutely necessary.
Few Britons (33%) are likewise willing to adopt a new, more self-interested foreign policy, including 31% among those who say we should prioritise European independence away from the US-Europe alliance
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
yougov.co.uk/politics/art...
February 3, 2026 at 12:41 PM
In the UK, there will be public resistance to doing the hard things necessary to develop the ability to deter Russian aggression without the US. Politicians must do more to make the case for why it is absolutely necessary.
Reposted by Jason Davidson
rise and grind babyyyyyy.
while all you pillow-cucked honk shoo maxxers were 'getting the medically recommended amount of sleep' I was doom scrolling in bed
follow me for more life ruining productivity tricks.
while all you pillow-cucked honk shoo maxxers were 'getting the medically recommended amount of sleep' I was doom scrolling in bed
follow me for more life ruining productivity tricks.
February 3, 2026 at 11:56 AM
rise and grind babyyyyyy.
while all you pillow-cucked honk shoo maxxers were 'getting the medically recommended amount of sleep' I was doom scrolling in bed
follow me for more life ruining productivity tricks.
while all you pillow-cucked honk shoo maxxers were 'getting the medically recommended amount of sleep' I was doom scrolling in bed
follow me for more life ruining productivity tricks.
Trump's Greenland threats are bad for US interests and great for China.
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
China is the main beneficiary of Trump’s Arctic antics
As the US redeploys its navy and alienates allies, Beijing is filling the void
giftarticle.ft.com
February 3, 2026 at 12:03 PM
Trump's Greenland threats are bad for US interests and great for China.
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Reposted by Jason Davidson
The reason why cyclists and pedestrians push back against these types of campaigns is not because we think visibility is bad (I wear hig-viz!), but because it's victim blaming that diverts attention from the real issues: dangerous drivers and poor infrastructure
“Where the built environment separates human skin and bone from lorries, cars, and buses, there is no need for our frantic striving to make fragile bodies hyper-visible”
“Anyone who thinks cyclists ‘come out of nowhere’ should not be in control of a vehicle”: Author slams ‘be safe, be seen’ hi-vis cycling campaigns, calls for ‘Look, don’t kill’ slogan; TT tinkering; V...
January is never going to end, is it? And on that cheery note, Ryan Mallon’s back for another cold, wet, and very windy shift rounding up all the latest cycling news on the Tuesday live blog
road.cc
January 27, 2026 at 11:23 AM
The reason why cyclists and pedestrians push back against these types of campaigns is not because we think visibility is bad (I wear hig-viz!), but because it's victim blaming that diverts attention from the real issues: dangerous drivers and poor infrastructure
Reposted by Jason Davidson
1/WSJ blockbuster. Key takeaway: Court interests not national interests are driving US foreign policy. In secret deal, UAE buys stake in Trump/Witkoff family crypto firm months before US does U-turn on advanced chip sales to UAE. This is what neo-royalism looks like.
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
‘Spy Sheikh’ Bought Secret Stake in Trump Company
$500 million investment for 49% of World Liberty came months before U.A.E. won access to tightly guarded American AI chips.
www.wsj.com
February 2, 2026 at 12:24 PM
1/WSJ blockbuster. Key takeaway: Court interests not national interests are driving US foreign policy. In secret deal, UAE buys stake in Trump/Witkoff family crypto firm months before US does U-turn on advanced chip sales to UAE. This is what neo-royalism looks like.
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...