Jason Davidson
@profjwdavidson.bsky.social
Non-Resident Senior Fellow at Atlantic Council/ Prof at U of Mary Washington
Research on NATO/ Transatlantic Security
Racing cyclist
Research on NATO/ Transatlantic Security
Racing cyclist
Pinned
What explains the transatlantic rift? It’s all about threat perception.
NATO allies’ differing threat perceptions provide the backdrop for what could be a contentious summit in The Hague this month.
www.atlanticcouncil.org
Some like to divide NATO allies into "good" ones who spend a lot on defense and "bad" ones/free riders who don't.
I argue in this @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social essay that differences in threat perception explain spending differences.
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
I argue in this @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social essay that differences in threat perception explain spending differences.
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
To anyone who thinks Rubio's MSC speech has put the transatlantic relationship back on traditional footing (or even that it is focused on Europe taking responsibility for its defense), I urge you to read the speech.
Here is just a taste of his core point 👇
Here is just a taste of his core point 👇
February 14, 2026 at 7:26 PM
To anyone who thinks Rubio's MSC speech has put the transatlantic relationship back on traditional footing (or even that it is focused on Europe taking responsibility for its defense), I urge you to read the speech.
Here is just a taste of his core point 👇
Here is just a taste of his core point 👇
Reposted by Jason Davidson
The kind of language he uses isn't hostile, but it's also typical of the Trump admin (shared civilisation, heritage, Christianity) and tries to give the impression of friendship and alliance while actually not offering either ("your fate will never be irrelevant to our own").
February 14, 2026 at 12:56 PM
The kind of language he uses isn't hostile, but it's also typical of the Trump admin (shared civilisation, heritage, Christianity) and tries to give the impression of friendship and alliance while actually not offering either ("your fate will never be irrelevant to our own").
Reposted by Jason Davidson
It doesn't mean that a Rubio presidency would want or be able to commit the diplomatic and other resources necessary to fully repair the alliance with Europe, but it would almost certainly be less hostile. You can see him trying to lay the groundwork for that here.
February 14, 2026 at 12:56 PM
It doesn't mean that a Rubio presidency would want or be able to commit the diplomatic and other resources necessary to fully repair the alliance with Europe, but it would almost certainly be less hostile. You can see him trying to lay the groundwork for that here.
Reposted by Jason Davidson
Marco Rubio is positioning himself as the "I'm not disloyal to Trump, but I'm also not JD Vance" 2028 candidate. A Rubio presidency would have a very different foreign policy to the Trump administration. Maintaining/repairing relations with Europe now will be helpful later on.
February 14, 2026 at 12:56 PM
Marco Rubio is positioning himself as the "I'm not disloyal to Trump, but I'm also not JD Vance" 2028 candidate. A Rubio presidency would have a very different foreign policy to the Trump administration. Maintaining/repairing relations with Europe now will be helpful later on.
Reposted by Jason Davidson
There will be people who are understandably desperate to hear this, but it's important to be clear-eyed about Rubio himself and what the Trump administration is doing. 🧵
February 14, 2026 at 12:56 PM
There will be people who are understandably desperate to hear this, but it's important to be clear-eyed about Rubio himself and what the Trump administration is doing. 🧵
Reposted by Jason Davidson
A Europe that no longer trusts the US as a security partner would also have significant consequences for US trade, perhaps above all in the defence sector. All these are big incentives to try to stop a full breach with Europe taking place.
February 14, 2026 at 12:56 PM
A Europe that no longer trusts the US as a security partner would also have significant consequences for US trade, perhaps above all in the defence sector. All these are big incentives to try to stop a full breach with Europe taking place.
Reposted by Jason Davidson
Rubio has a personal interest in saying nice(ish) things to Europe; the Trump administration as a whole has a strong interest in Europe not acting on the rupture the White House has created. None of this means an actual change of direction in US foreign policy.
February 14, 2026 at 12:56 PM
Rubio has a personal interest in saying nice(ish) things to Europe; the Trump administration as a whole has a strong interest in Europe not acting on the rupture the White House has created. None of this means an actual change of direction in US foreign policy.
In this piece for The National Interest I argue that differing threat perceptions and identities (in addition to resources and coordination challenges) are major roadblocks on Europe's path to defense independence.
nationalinterest.org/feature/thre...
nationalinterest.org/feature/thre...
Three Roadblocks on Europe’s Path to Defense Independence
Dependence on US military equipment, differing priorities, and distinct identities all impede the formation of a unified European defense.
nationalinterest.org
February 13, 2026 at 7:30 PM
In this piece for The National Interest I argue that differing threat perceptions and identities (in addition to resources and coordination challenges) are major roadblocks on Europe's path to defense independence.
nationalinterest.org/feature/thre...
nationalinterest.org/feature/thre...
Reposted by Jason Davidson
Right now at Munich Security Conference, Thom Tillis is desperately trying to blame tariffs on Trump’s staff and FP’s Ravi Agrawal is saying he’s “gobsmacked” by that claim.
February 13, 2026 at 2:51 PM
Right now at Munich Security Conference, Thom Tillis is desperately trying to blame tariffs on Trump’s staff and FP’s Ravi Agrawal is saying he’s “gobsmacked” by that claim.
If the Trump admin's only policy toward Europe was to ask them to take responsibility for their own defense, it would have been very likely to succeed.
Instead, 🇺🇸 has also threatened to seize territory of an ally & intervene in allies' domestic politics.
www.war.gov/News/Speeche...
Instead, 🇺🇸 has also threatened to seize territory of an ally & intervene in allies' domestic politics.
www.war.gov/News/Speeche...
www.war.gov
February 13, 2026 at 2:42 PM
If the Trump admin's only policy toward Europe was to ask them to take responsibility for their own defense, it would have been very likely to succeed.
Instead, 🇺🇸 has also threatened to seize territory of an ally & intervene in allies' domestic politics.
www.war.gov/News/Speeche...
Instead, 🇺🇸 has also threatened to seize territory of an ally & intervene in allies' domestic politics.
www.war.gov/News/Speeche...
It seems like people in the Trump admin don't realize that you can't say the US cares about European security (as Colby did yesterday) while simultaneously funding forces that seek to undermine mainstream European political forces.
www.politico.eu/article/maga...
www.politico.eu/article/maga...
The MAGA-friendly European think tanks Trump wants to fund
The Heritage Foundation identified European groups for U.S. backing.
www.politico.eu
February 13, 2026 at 1:55 PM
It seems like people in the Trump admin don't realize that you can't say the US cares about European security (as Colby did yesterday) while simultaneously funding forces that seek to undermine mainstream European political forces.
www.politico.eu/article/maga...
www.politico.eu/article/maga...
An all-star diplomatic and military cast making the clear case for the 🇺🇸 to stay engaged in NATO because doing so is in the US' national interest.
www.belfercenter.org/research-ana...
www.belfercenter.org/research-ana...
NATO is Vital to U.S. National Security
A joint statement by 16 U.S. Ambassadors to NATO and Supreme Allied Commanders, arguing "NATO is not an act of American generosity. It is a strategic bargain that ensures the United States remains the...
www.belfercenter.org
February 13, 2026 at 12:52 PM
An all-star diplomatic and military cast making the clear case for the 🇺🇸 to stay engaged in NATO because doing so is in the US' national interest.
www.belfercenter.org/research-ana...
www.belfercenter.org/research-ana...
Reposted by Jason Davidson
Since the beginning of 2026 in Italy:
1) Sicily/Calabria experienced the biggest cyclone in 50 years
2) Venice raised the sea wall (Mose) a record of 18 times in last 2 weeks
3) Sardinia is currently in extreme wind alert (100km/h) with more than 800 calls for help to firefighters in 24 hours
1) Sicily/Calabria experienced the biggest cyclone in 50 years
2) Venice raised the sea wall (Mose) a record of 18 times in last 2 weeks
3) Sardinia is currently in extreme wind alert (100km/h) with more than 800 calls for help to firefighters in 24 hours
Island swept by mistral wind: over 800 calls for help to firefighters - L'Unione Sarda English
Fallen trees, roofs blown off buildings, families evacuated: hundreds of rescue operations are still pending from north to south in Sardinia. Telephone lines are affected in the Sarrabus and Ogliastra...
www.unionesarda.it
February 12, 2026 at 8:03 PM
Since the beginning of 2026 in Italy:
1) Sicily/Calabria experienced the biggest cyclone in 50 years
2) Venice raised the sea wall (Mose) a record of 18 times in last 2 weeks
3) Sardinia is currently in extreme wind alert (100km/h) with more than 800 calls for help to firefighters in 24 hours
1) Sicily/Calabria experienced the biggest cyclone in 50 years
2) Venice raised the sea wall (Mose) a record of 18 times in last 2 weeks
3) Sardinia is currently in extreme wind alert (100km/h) with more than 800 calls for help to firefighters in 24 hours
Reposted by Jason Davidson
“If Britain is ever to give up clutching at Uncle Sam’s coattails, it must change its partner for upgrading its nuclear deterrent from America to France, and use that cooperation to present Vladimir Putin with a combined European nuclear deterrent that should keep him honest.”
Escaping the special relationship: How Britain can leave its dangerous dependency on Trump’s America – European Council on Foreign Relations
The British prime minister has long said the UK does not need to choose between the US and Europe. The time has come for him to admit he is wrong
ecfr.eu
February 12, 2026 at 12:01 PM
“If Britain is ever to give up clutching at Uncle Sam’s coattails, it must change its partner for upgrading its nuclear deterrent from America to France, and use that cooperation to present Vladimir Putin with a combined European nuclear deterrent that should keep him honest.”
Reposted by Jason Davidson
Ukrainian Olympian Vladyslav Heraskevych has expressed gratitude to his fellow Ukrainians for their words of support.
1/2
1/2
February 12, 2026 at 12:00 PM
Ukrainian Olympian Vladyslav Heraskevych has expressed gratitude to his fellow Ukrainians for their words of support.
1/2
1/2
Reposted by Jason Davidson
The moment you arrive, you know this year’s Munich Security Conference will be different. #MSC2026
As @nicolange.bsky.social said so powerfully at the @atlantikbruecke.bsky.social dinner
- Europe needs to grow its backbone.
Helsing provides the tools to do just that.
@munsecconf.bsky.social
As @nicolange.bsky.social said so powerfully at the @atlantikbruecke.bsky.social dinner
- Europe needs to grow its backbone.
Helsing provides the tools to do just that.
@munsecconf.bsky.social
February 12, 2026 at 12:06 PM
The moment you arrive, you know this year’s Munich Security Conference will be different. #MSC2026
As @nicolange.bsky.social said so powerfully at the @atlantikbruecke.bsky.social dinner
- Europe needs to grow its backbone.
Helsing provides the tools to do just that.
@munsecconf.bsky.social
As @nicolange.bsky.social said so powerfully at the @atlantikbruecke.bsky.social dinner
- Europe needs to grow its backbone.
Helsing provides the tools to do just that.
@munsecconf.bsky.social
Oh my. I'm usually literally "out and biking" every day of the week, which I guess explains why I misunderstand so many things....
This is more funny than the author knows because ”to be out and biking” is a Swedish idiom meaning that you’ve totally misunderstood something.
Apart from the catchy headline, many very good points in the text by Stephen M. Walt. Worth your while.
Apart from the catchy headline, many very good points in the text by Stephen M. Walt. Worth your while.
NATO’s Leader Is Totally Lost
What does Mark Rutte think he’s doing?
foreignpolicy.com
February 12, 2026 at 12:44 PM
Oh my. I'm usually literally "out and biking" every day of the week, which I guess explains why I misunderstand so many things....
“But now, far from taking the transatlantic deterrence offered by the NATO alliance for granted, the European public hardly believe it exists — the main question for the leaders heading to MSC now is how the security it offered can be recreated without the U.S.”
www.politico.com/news/2026/02...
www.politico.com/news/2026/02...
Poll: Top NATO allies don’t think US helps deter enemies anymore
The United States' eroding reputation is raising fresh questions about the stability of the global order that has held for decades, and of the country's strength on the world stage.
www.politico.com
February 12, 2026 at 12:12 PM
“But now, far from taking the transatlantic deterrence offered by the NATO alliance for granted, the European public hardly believe it exists — the main question for the leaders heading to MSC now is how the security it offered can be recreated without the U.S.”
www.politico.com/news/2026/02...
www.politico.com/news/2026/02...
Worth reading this case for optimism regarding the transatlantic relationship.
I've heard similar things from others I respect, but I fear there's a little too much wishful thinking regarding damage already done (Greenland, "civilizational erasure," etc.).
I've heard similar things from others I respect, but I fear there's a little too much wishful thinking regarding damage already done (Greenland, "civilizational erasure," etc.).
The alliance between Europe and America is deeply wounded 一 but it’s not dead yet.
The Munich Security Conference this week will serve as a gut check of the transatlantic tie, notably frayed but still bound together. With @paulmcleary.bsky.social , Felicia Schwartz www.politico.com/news/2026/02...
The Munich Security Conference this week will serve as a gut check of the transatlantic tie, notably frayed but still bound together. With @paulmcleary.bsky.social , Felicia Schwartz www.politico.com/news/2026/02...
The transatlantic alliance is down but not out
The Munich Security Conference will serve as a gut check of the frayed relationship, and whether Europe can hold on to its emerging self-assurance.
www.politico.com
February 11, 2026 at 1:19 PM
Worth reading this case for optimism regarding the transatlantic relationship.
I've heard similar things from others I respect, but I fear there's a little too much wishful thinking regarding damage already done (Greenland, "civilizational erasure," etc.).
I've heard similar things from others I respect, but I fear there's a little too much wishful thinking regarding damage already done (Greenland, "civilizational erasure," etc.).
Reposted by Jason Davidson
NATO says it has begun a mission to strengthen its presence in the Arctic - part of efforts to defuse severe tensions in the alliance prompted by U.S. President Donald Trump's desire for the U.S. to acquire Greenland.
NATO has begun "Arctic Sentry", a mission to strengthen its presence in the Arctic
NATO said on Wednesday it had begun a mission to strengthen its presence in the Arctic as part of an agreement to defuse severe tensions within the alliance prompted by U.S. President Donald Trump's d...
www.reuters.com
February 11, 2026 at 12:51 PM
NATO says it has begun a mission to strengthen its presence in the Arctic - part of efforts to defuse severe tensions in the alliance prompted by U.S. President Donald Trump's desire for the U.S. to acquire Greenland.
Forgive the Trump administration, they know not what they do (honestly, they seem to be absolutely clueless about how Europeans see their policies).
February 11, 2026 at 12:36 PM
Forgive the Trump administration, they know not what they do (honestly, they seem to be absolutely clueless about how Europeans see their policies).
If France or the UK helped Poland develop nuclear weapons, the chances of deterring Russian aggression v. NATO's East would improve dramatically.
www.politico.eu/article/us-d...
www.politico.eu/article/us-d...
Trump’s Greenland gambit pushes Europe to look to its own nuclear arsenals
European nations wanting “insurance” against Russia are looking to France and Britain to share their nuclear deterrents.
www.politico.eu
February 9, 2026 at 12:31 PM
If France or the UK helped Poland develop nuclear weapons, the chances of deterring Russian aggression v. NATO's East would improve dramatically.
www.politico.eu/article/us-d...
www.politico.eu/article/us-d...
Sounds like neo-royalism to me (if you haven't, read Stacie Goddard and @abenewman.bsky.social in IO on the concept).
>The U.S. ambassador in Warsaw cut off contact with Poland's parliament speaker on Thursday, accusing him of insulting Donald Trump after he criticised the president's policies and declined to support his Nobel Peace Prize ambitions.
Tantrums as foreign policy
Tantrums as foreign policy
US cuts contact with Polish parliament speaker over Trump 'insults' reut.rs/4ahobTG
February 5, 2026 at 6:32 PM
Sounds like neo-royalism to me (if you haven't, read Stacie Goddard and @abenewman.bsky.social in IO on the concept).
Putin+Trump almost = European unity
Simon Kuper: "Donald Trump. He has probably done more to unite Europe than any European ever did."
www.ft.com/content/dc9e...
www.ft.com/content/dc9e...
Trump is Europe’s best enemy yet
Lack of a common foe enfeebled Europe — but not any more
www.ft.com
February 5, 2026 at 3:57 PM
Putin+Trump almost = European unity