Mark McGeoghegan
@markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social
17K followers 2.2K following 4.1K posts
@uofglasgow.bsky.social PhD studying political contention of self-determination groups | 📊 Quant PoliSci | 🗳️ Scots politics & elections | Associate Member @ccc-research.bsky.social | ✍🏻 @heraldscotland.bsky.social | Some 📊 @uofgpolicy.bsky.social‬
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markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social
New Scottish Parliament poll tracker, incorporating yesterday's @moreincommonuk.bsky.social polling. Thanks to 12 marginal holds and 3 marginal gains, the SNP match their 2021 result.

Seats (+/- 2021):

SNP: 64 (-)
Lab: 18 (-4)
Ref: 16 (+16)
LD: 11 (+7)
Con: 10 (-21)
Grn: 10 (+2)
Alba: 0 (-)

1/4
markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social
"I sexually harassed people in a weaker position than me then blamed it on being on 'the spectrum', you should respect GDPR"

Convincing.
Reposted by Mark McGeoghegan
robfordmancs.bsky.social
Among the many possibilities for the next few years, the scenario of swapping one pair of dominant parties (Lab and Con) for another (Reform and LD) is intriguing, under-discussed and, in English elections, not entirely implausible either (several county councils made this leap in May)
electionmaps.uk
Aggregate Result of the 122 Council By-Elections (for 125 Seats) since the 2025 Local Elections:

RFM: 47 (+40)
LDM: 32 (+10)
CON: 13 (-15)
LAB: 12 (-30)
GRN: 11 (+3)
Ind: 5 (-4)
Local: 3 (-3)
SNP: 1 (-1)
PLC: 1 (=)

Explore: electionmaps.uk/byelections-...
markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social
Something needs to be written on this, tbh. The victory of gradualism over fundamentalism and the reality that while unionists and political commentators focus on the now, senior Scottish secessionists think in the long-run.
markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social
Even Salmond, the author of the gradualists' victory in the 2000s, ran aground when he tried to change course.

There's one game in town in Scottish nationalism.
markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social
If you want a reason why, look no further than this: they were/are wrong about secessionist contention in the modern UK and modern Scotland. They'll be remembered for seemingly clever wheezes that were obviously dead on arrival.
markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social
In the SNP's long, gradualist moment (yet to terminate), a whole generation of fundamentalists has emerged, fucked it, and vanished.

Those challenging Swinney this weekend represent a political afterthought.
dov.bsky.social
Apropos of nothing, with Ash Regan's hilarious defection to the Ash Regan Party, we can bid a final, deeply belated farewell forever to the highly irritating fundy-nat streak in fringe Scottish politics. It has been slain almost inhumanely, a sort of death by a thousand cuts.
Reposted by Mark McGeoghegan
dov.bsky.social
Apropos of nothing, with Ash Regan's hilarious defection to the Ash Regan Party, we can bid a final, deeply belated farewell forever to the highly irritating fundy-nat streak in fringe Scottish politics. It has been slain almost inhumanely, a sort of death by a thousand cuts.
Reposted by Mark McGeoghegan
markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social
Despite the Opposition's focus on public services, tax, and the economy, May's Holyrood election will end up defined by distrust in politics, aimless constitutional wrangling, and, for the first time, immigration.

My latest for @heraldscotland.bsky.social
'Scotland’s election will be won on distrust, not debate
Scotland ought to be debating how to fix our health and education systems and reinvigorate our economy next April and May, but the next Holyrood…
www.heraldscotland.com
markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social
Don't think that was Dunlop?
markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social
Despite the Opposition's focus on public services, tax, and the economy, May's Holyrood election will end up defined by distrust in politics, aimless constitutional wrangling, and, for the first time, immigration.

My latest for @heraldscotland.bsky.social
'Scotland’s election will be won on distrust, not debate
Scotland ought to be debating how to fix our health and education systems and reinvigorate our economy next April and May, but the next Holyrood…
www.heraldscotland.com
Reposted by Mark McGeoghegan
timbale.bsky.social
Just found the actual tables. Not sure where 71% in the Telegraph comes from but the fact that it's significantly lower for police/military (36% as opposed to 66 and 63%) may help explain Charing Cross etc.

"Q6. Do you agree or disagree that Racism in Britain is a major problem for society."
markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social
I distinctly recall Roddy Dunlop Q/KC commenting that he'd worked with Ash so knew how clever she is in response to people making fun of her.

Doesn't fill one with much faith in the Dean of the Faculty of Advocates, does it.
markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social
MSP who defected over party direction in resigning over party direction shock
ballotbox.scot
Ash Regan, MSP for Edinburgh Eastern, candidate for SNP leader in 2023 and subsequently Alba leader in 2025, has now quit Alba citing it's "direction". She becomes an Independent and is re-standing as one next year. Alba's - never earned, only defected - parliamentary representation is ended.
Reposted by Mark McGeoghegan
ballotbox.scot
Ash Regan, MSP for Edinburgh Eastern, candidate for SNP leader in 2023 and subsequently Alba leader in 2025, has now quit Alba citing it's "direction". She becomes an Independent and is re-standing as one next year. Alba's - never earned, only defected - parliamentary representation is ended.
markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social
My fear is that he loses interest because he's capricious and easily swayed...
markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social
I agree with the first half of your response, but I'm sceptical that he'll lose interest. The Peace Prize is still in play for him and making the Gaza ceasefire work is his best shot. As you say, he's transactional, so it should keep his interest on that basis.
markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social
At least Kissinger will have some company atop the undeserving Nobel Laureates rankings.
markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social
It would've been insane for the Nobel committee to award Trump the Peace Prize this year. But if the ceasefire in Gaza holds I can see the committee caving to pressure next year, given their track record.

At which point we'll have the grotesquery of a wannabe dictator winning the Nobel Peace Prize.
markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social
Should clarify this:

Declining British identity
Increasing *sole* Scottish identity

There's not been an increase in Scottish identity as much as it has become more singular v. the 2011 census.
markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social
Possibly points to a more specific relationship between Scottish identity (pretty flat) and secessionist support rather than between British identity and opposition to independence.
Reposted by Mark McGeoghegan
chrischirp.bsky.social
🧵🚨

The UK’s independent scientific bodies are highly vulnerable to politicisation - over the past 5 months I've been working with @martinmckee.bsky.social to map out their vulnerabilities and it's not good news.

Today our report is published!
www.ucl.ac.uk/policy-lab/n...

1/11
UK’s arm’s length public bodies are highly vulnerable to politicisation
Seven in ten Britons say it is important for top scientific institutions to be independent in exclusive new polling.
www.ucl.ac.uk